25 Game Stat Geek Update
by jksnake99 on Dec 14, 2008 4:49 PM PST
27 comments
This will follow the same format as my last update, drawing heavily on the work of John Hollinger.
Pace
Portland continues to plod along, playing the fewest possessions per game in the league, 88.6 For reference, the median pace is 94.2, so Blazer games are about 6% slower than the average game.
Offensive Efficiency
Portland is tied for 2nd (with the Lakers) in the NBA in points scored per 100 possessions at 110. The Cavs are leading the league at 111.4 points per 100 possessions. The worst offensive teams so far have been the Wolves, Charlotte, Philly, the Clippers, and (dead last) the Thunder. The median efficiency is 104.4.
Defensive Efficiency
Portland continues to struggle defensively. The Blazers have allowed 105.7points/100 possessions. This is a slight improvement from my last update, but still bad. The Blazers have been the 22nd best defensive team so far. The five worst defensive teams are Minnesota, New Jersey, Golden State, Sacramento and Washington. The best defensive teams thus far have been the Celtics, Cavs, Lakers, Magic and Nuggets. The Cavs have a chance to be #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which hasn't happened since the dominant 72 win Bulls. The Blazers just don't play good individual defense or good team defense right now.
Looking a Bit Deeper at Offense- Why are the Blazers Having Success?
Offensive efficiency can come from 4 different areas: shooting a high percentage, getting a lot of offensive rebounds, not turning the ball over and getting to the foul line. Taking care of the ball, a strength of the Blazers in the early going, has been a problem of late. The Blazers have slipped to the 9th best team in terms of taking care of the ball (9th fewest turnovers per possession). The Blazers also have the league's best offensive rebound rate (we have the 4th best defensive rebound rate-- rebounding has been a major area of improvement this year). In terms of shooting the ball, the Blazers are doing more "living by the 3" than "dying by the 3.." The Blazers are 9th in effective field goal % (down from 6th in the last update), which takes the value of 3s into account. In True Shooting %, which takes FTs into account, Portland is 10th (down from 7th in the last update). The Blazers continue to be above average in every area of offensive basketball, though the hot shooting has cooled to some degree.
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Hollinger Player Stats
A quick look at the PER rating.
PG: Blake is 25th among PGs and Sergio is 33rd. So far, the top PGs are Paul, Harris, Parker, Billups and Terry.
SG: Roy is the 4th rated SG (behind Wade, Ginobili and Kobe) and 14th overall player. He has a strong all-star case. Rudy is the #13 rated SG. He's also the #5 rated rookie, behind Speights, Mayo, George Hill and Rose.
SF: Batum is 35th among SFs (he was in the top 15 well into November) and Outlaw is 27th.
PF: Aldridge is the #17 rated PF as his PER has been climbing of late. He's right around his PER from last year. Lately his shooting has been more efficient, but I'd still like to see more 50+% shooting games from him. I won't talk about rebounding.
C: Oden has fallen quite a ways. He's now rated as the 17th best Center in the league (down from 6th last update). Oden is behind the likes of Matt Bonner, Marc Gasol and Javale McGee. Then again, he's ahead of Andrew Bogut and Spencer Hawes. He's the 9th rated rookie. Meanwhile, Joel's career year continues. He's currently 10th among Centers in PER. Joel and Greg are 2nd and 3rd in the NBA in rebound rate, with only Superman ahead of them. Also, Joel has by far the NBA's best True Shooting %, an otherwordly .805 (Bonner is 2nd at .678).
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Summary: The Blazers continue to put up strong offensive numbers and poor defensive numbers. It will be interesting to see how the numbers change as the Blazers move into the more home-heavy portion of the schedule. Despite the two heartwrenching losses this past week, the Blazers find themselves in a decent position. Hollinger has the Blazers 5th in his power rankings, Jeff Sagarin has them 7th. Hollinger gives the Blazers a 97.3% chance at the playoffs... coolstandings.com has that number at 92.6%. While the Blazers playoff chances have dropped in the past week, its worth noting that they never rose this high last year, even after the 13 game win streak. The Blazers need to use these days off wisely and get back on track against Sacramento and Phoenix.
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Defense
I think/hope that the defensive numbers declined quite a bit as the number of games over the last month caught up to the Blazers. They had a nice little stretch of defensive outings until the East Coast road trip, which is when the number of games, and flights really stacked up.
I still don’t think this is a great defensive team, but I think with some additional rest and a slightly easier schedule, they Blazers could finish about middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, by the end of the year. For that to happen, however, the coaching staff is going to have to tinker with some schemes… perhaps double more often.
By the way, this is one topic that I would like to see the coaching staff discuss. I do not have a good feel for the team’s defensive philosophy or how the coaching staff assesses it’s progress.
by PoliSam on Dec 14, 2008 5:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
nice continuation
wow, i was on a redikulous high there for a while. i hope the team duznt take it to personal, and just stays at it. the league has had some time to adjust tu us, teams are not afraid of oden anymore, roy catches the double team in the forth, were becoming predictable. i hope were able to adjust and with a little less of a strunuas skedual and a few new wrinkles to our offence and defence, we can get bacck to winning basket ball games. one thing that expreamly dishartening as having TWO defencivly dominate centers and holding down the 22nd spot for team defence. ugh. hope the rest helps a bit. GO BLAZERS!!!
"It feals like there should be a Blazer game tonight"
said by my GF
by maid tu rek on Dec 14, 2008 5:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He’s also the #5 rated rookie, behind Speights, Mayo, George Hill and Mayo.
You list Mayo twice.
Nice work though. I hope Bayless and Batum can shore up our defense in coming years.
honor rasheed wallace
by Cablinasian on Dec 14, 2008 5:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh oh, we dropped from 100 to 99.9 to 97.3 percent in Hollinger's playoff odds :)
And worse: We have fallen behind Denver and Utah in the conference in real life. That will be one tough battle all season. I don’t think the playoffs are as safe as Hollinger’s machine makes it look, but I’m confident we can leave at least one of the big teams behind us.
Viva la Rudylucion
by Norsktroll on Dec 14, 2008 5:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not.
It seems like SA, Denver, Utah, LA, Houston, and NO are definitely in.
That means its us, Phoenix, and Dallas for the remaining two spots… I think we’ll make it, but… there is a good chance we won’t.
honor rasheed wallace
by Cablinasian on Dec 14, 2008 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
There are nine legitimate playoff teams in the Western Conference vying for eight spots. We have the most home games remaining but we are also the youngest team, which means we are most likely to choke or just sink due to fatigue (funny, you would think youth would have a reverse effect on fatigue).
Also, the Suns may have improved significantly with their recent trade, whereas we are likely to stay pat with our roster as the Mavs continue to gel and soar.
I would put our chances at the playoffs between 35% and 65. Anything over 90 is a filthy lie.
"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"
by broggerboy19 on Dec 14, 2008 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't draw a line...
… between the SA, Denver, Utah, Houston, NO group and the Portland, Phoenix, Dallas group. I think its legitimately a group of 8, without a clear line between the first 5 and the last 3.
Boomshakalaka
by jksnake99 on Dec 14, 2008 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
The only one of those teams that scares me is Phoenix due to them having our number. Unfortunately Portland seems to bring it’s A game vs.top tier talent and it’s F game vs. say oh the clippers….
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Dec 14, 2008 6:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Phoenix has our number
in part because we’ve played them twice at Phoenix, both times on the second game of a back to back. It’s hard enough to play them in Phoenix, the back to back makes it worse.
I expect us to win at least one of the two games here in Portland, and probably both.
Do you like asparagus?
by jscot on Dec 14, 2008 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Mostly. I still think NO and Denver are going to separate themselves from the 8-9 conversation, and I think it is likely we will, also.
Utah has now matched last year’s home loss record. If they are going to improve on 54 wins, they have to win more on the road than they did last year.
If Houston can find a way to stay healthy, they probably won’t be in the 8-9 conversation, either.
What we don’t know yet is who is going to have a key player go down for an extended period of time. That can knock just about any of these teams out of the playoffs.
Do you like asparagus?
by jscot on Dec 14, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding peripheral statistics, y'all should view Travis Outlaw's on-court/off-court rebounding numbers.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR8.HTM#onoff
Also, LaMarcus Aldridge has a 62.7% eFG on inside shots and a 40.7% eFG on jumpers — which consists of 68% and 32% of his shot attempts, respectively — thus, it’s abundantly clear that if he wants to become a more efficient scorer, then the dude must quit being a pansy and develop a stronger back to the basket game on offense.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR9.HTM
It’s doubtful that Aldridge has got it in him, though.
by AK1984 on Dec 14, 2008 6:21 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agree completely
Lamarcus BADLY needs to flip those percentages to make your original statement correct. He should be taking 2/3 inside shots and work outside once he gets a feel for the game. He shoots the J much better, too, when he’s been attacking the basket aggressively (like the Magic game).
Doing that would be a lot to make him the player we thought he could be coming into the season. He’s never going to be a great rebounder, so he really needs to be an efficient scorer to make himself valuable.
Incidentally, when he’s attacking the bucket he also seems to rebound better. His whole game improves.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Dec 15, 2008 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
jksnake99. Thank you very much for the time that you put into this
I appreciate it.
I'm a little confused by your tactics
by oderiferous emanations 74 on Dec 14, 2008 7:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Another interesting thing to look at
Is how on a game by game basis the PER of the Blazers and their opponents stack up.
http://www.82games.com/0809/BYPOSIT.HTM
The tables show how each team performs by position PER-wise, and how well their opponents play against them.
For instance, everyone knows the Bulls are a mediocre team, but to locate why they aren’t that good just look at the PER differentials for the PF and C spots, good for last in the league. Not only are the Bulls’ big men playing like crap, but they’re letting their opponents in the frontcourt look like All-Stars on a nightly basis.
What do you see in a 14 ppg with no jumper that makes one think he will be better than a 26ppg\ 12rpg guy? Is there some kind of magic formula that tells you 14 > 26??
by Dabullsfan on Jul 1, 2008 10:19 AM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 14, 2008 10:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nice link
That makes us look like we are loaded at SF, good at SG, and mediocre elsewhere. That’s because we’ve been playing Brandon at the 3 quite a bit, and our inconsistent SFs have had some really good games to bump up the stats.
Do you like asparagus?
by jscot on Dec 14, 2008 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly enough
the opposing small forwards played very subpar against us.
Batum has done a good job on quite a few players. His lockdown D on Butler in Washington was great. Gave up 2 points in the half.
honor rasheed wallace
by Cablinasian on Dec 15, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
The PER differences show that not only are the 3s having good games, but the opponents are not at all. So, either you’re catching SFs on their bad days, or there is some good defense at work.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 16, 2008 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
Portland continues to struggle defensively. The Blazers have allowed 105.7points/100 possessions. This is a slight improvement from my last update, but still bad. The Blazers have been the 22nd best defensive team so far.
First 14 games were 106.4, and now we’re at 105.7. That means over the last 11 games, we’ve probably been at about 104.8, and the schedule still hasn’t been easy. 104.8 would put us 17th. I expect to see continued improvement in this area as the schedule lightens and as the team gels together better. Remember, we’ve had Greg less than 20 games. This is obviously a place we can get a lot of improvement, and I expect it will get a lot of coaching focus as we get more practice time now that we are home more.
Offensive efficiency can come from 4 different areas: shooting a high percentage, getting a lot of offensive rebounds, not turning the ball over and getting to the foul line.
I would add a fifth area, making a lot of three pointers, which has been a key factor in our offensive efficiency.
Individuals: In an ideal world, you want your starter at every position to be in the top 20 at his position, and your backup to be in the top 50 or so.
PG: Blake is 25th among PGs and Sergio is 33rd.
If anything, Steve’s defense probably pulls his ranking a little lower. He’s not a terrible defender, but he isn’t great, either. We have two guys playing at a very good backup level, neither really playing at starter level. You can live with that, it means you get 48 mpg of decent play, but you’d better be strong elsewhere. It would be nice to get better at PG.
SG: Roy is the 4th rated SG (behind Wade, Ginobili and Kobe) and 14th overall player. He has a strong all-star case. Rudy is the #13 rated SG. He’s also the #5 rated rookie, behind Speights, Mayo, George Hill and Rose.
This is a major strength for us, both at starter and backup.
SF: Batum is 35th among SFs (he was in the top 15 well into November) and Outlaw is 27th.
Nic’s defense probably means he should be a little higher, Travis’ defense means he should be a little lower. See my comments on our PG situation — 48 minutes of reasonably solid backup play. Except that these guys are both very inconsistent. We might get 48 minutes of great play, or 48 minutes of atrocious play. Hopefully Martell’s return will help, or Nic will develop further, or Travis will step up more frequently.
PF: Aldridge is the #17 rated PF as his PER has been climbing of late. He’s right around his PER from last year. Lately his shooting has been more efficient, but I’d still like to see more 50+% shooting games from him. I won’t talk about rebounding.
LMA’s poor rebounding may be in part because the centers are vacuuming up most of the rebounds. He should be a top ten PF by next year. It would be nice if we had a backup.
C: Oden has fallen quite a ways. He’s now rated as the 17th best Center in the league (down from 6th last update). Oden is behind the likes of Matt Bonner, Marc Gasol and Javale McGee. Then again, he’s ahead of Andrew Bogut and Spencer Hawes. He’s the 9th rated rookie. Meanwhile, Joel’s career year continues. He’s currently 10th among Centers in PER. Joel and Greg are 2nd and 3rd in the NBA in rebound rate, with only Superman ahead of them. Also, Joel has by far the NBA’s best True Shooting %, an otherwordly .805 (Bonner is 2nd at .678).
This actually isn’t going to be fair once Greg learns to play offense in the NBA. Of course, when that happens Joel’s minutes will go down, but PER doesn’t reflect defense, and that is one of his strengths. Joel is playing like a top 20 center right now, which means we’ve got two legit starters at the position.
Do you like asparagus?
by jscot on Dec 14, 2008 10:52 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Good points
Together with Snake’s analysis, it illustrates nicely the statistical case for upgrading at PG and/or SF.
The interesting thing about this team is how stacked it is at SG and C – two top twenty guys at each position – and yet the Blazers probably wouldn’t want to trade either of those backups to upgrade the other, weaker positions.
The Blazers probably really have THREE decent backup PGs and THREE decent backup SFs. But no real quality starters (yet). Interesting roster situation.
Martell’s PER last year was below both Trout and Batum’s right now. He could improve a lot this year, but it would be atypical for a guy to improve from where he’s been to a top twenty guy. I would say Batum has more of a chance to develop into that player eventually.
At PG, I would bet Bayless is more than capable right now of being a decent backup PG. He just hasn’t yet attained the “know how” to unseat Blake or Sergio (who are both on the level of “good” backup PGs). The difference is Bayless seems to have the physical tools to develop into an elite starting PG, whereas Blake does not (he’s already getting the most out of his talent) and Sergio may or may not (has the quickness and vision, may lack the finishing ability to keep D honest).
The other spot that could use an upgrade is backup PF. Frye’s been solid at times, atrocious at times. Need some consistency there. He’s more than capable of being that guy – I think, like Lamarcus, he needs to refocus his energy on playing w/in 15 feet of the bucket and stop trying to be the next Sheed.
Where is the money best spent? Do the Blazers bank on Batum/Martell and Bayless developing into quality starters, or try to consolidate one or more of the (relative) vets into somebody who’s elite right now?
Probably all just depends what the options are.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Dec 16, 2008 7:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
very nice work
and props for using the median as the measure of central tendency..
it is much more appropriate but not used enough in basketball stats IMO
Boycott Rose Garden Concessions!!!
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/11/8/657044/boycotting-rose-garden-con
by idoltime on Dec 16, 2008 4:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting as always
Good analysis all around.
One thing to note about the declining offensive stats – although the Blazers are still well above average in every offensive category, they haven’t been for the past 5 games or so (viewed in isolation). The overall averages have stayed high based on lights out shooting earlier in the season, but over the last few games the shooting/offensive efficiency has probably slipped to below average.
That’s the problem with living/dying by the three – you might thrive for a while, but it’s tough to maintain consistency with jumpshots as the cornerstone of the offense.
The Blazers need to focus on developing Lamarcus’s low post game (he’s already got a nice repitoire of moves – he just needs to focus on using them) to create more consistent non-Roy scoring down the stretch.
Eventually, I think Bayless will add another element of consistency to the offense attacking the basket. If Trout ever committed to that (he’s showed progress), it would be tremendous, as well.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Dec 16, 2008 8:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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