Sergio's 3 Point Shot and Defense
by as11osu on Dec 10, 2008 3:56 AM PST
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PrintIts going to be impossible for me not to seem biased for Sergio in this post, so I'll just go ahead and own it. I've been a huge Sergio fan ever since he became a Blazer. Earlier in fact. I've been paying attention to foreign prospects for a while (I'm kind of a draft geek), and was enamored enough with Sergio, that I told a friend he was the guy we needed to select when we added that pick from PHX. To my utter astonishment, KP made my dream a reality. Ever since then, Sergio has been my favorite player on the team.
However, I'm a realist, well, a pessimist really. Last year after watching his play (mostly cringe inducing), I became aware of the potential parting of ways between Sergio and the Blazers. Even though I didn't like Bayless' game more than Sergio's, I had to admit, like any objective person, that he was not only the better fit with Roy, but probably the more likely long term answer for this team. Although you still have to back your guy (thanks timbo, for helping me find my passion again), I stated the obvious reasons you can't just let a guy like Sergio go and rot away on the bench (age, elite and unusual talents etc).
Then I went to that preseason game against Sacremento, and I saw the chemistry he and Rudy had on the court. It was as immediate and obvious as any combo you'll ever see play together. I fell back in love with all the things I had always loved about his game. During this early run, not only has he exhibited that rookie season flair and insanely high assist ratio we all grew to love two years ago, but you have begun to see his development as an overall basketball player. Most importantly to his potential future here in Portland were his improvements in two areas, his defense and his three point shooting.
I know, I know, his three point percentage is average (its actually slightly above average 37%). But it actually isn't. His true three point percentage is actually above 40%. When I took a look at the box score today, and saw Sergio Rodriguez 3/9, and 2/4 from three, I thought, that isn't the game I just saw. Those shots don't represent even his shooting impact on the game. The part I won't significantly get into here is the fact that on two of his missed shots, that he blew past the player defending him, and caused a big to challenge his shot (allowing Joel and LaMarcus to dunk off his missed layups). The part I want to get into is part of the un-stats. Specifically the half court heaves that show up on your box score, but represent zero of your ability to reasonably and effectively hit your three point shot in a game. As it stands now, Sergio Rodriguez is 14 for 38 on the year from three (37%). 5 of those shots, or 13% of his three point shots for the year have been of the half court heave variety. 13%, I've concluded is among the highest percentages of half court heaves to three point shots in the NBA. Steve Blake by comparison, has shot 3 of them on the year (3% of his threes) . His real, honest to goodness 3 point percentage is 45/103 (106 w/ half court heaves) or 43.7%. By comparison, right now Sergio sits at 14/33 (38 w/ half court heaves) or 42.4%. When someone in the game threads throws up their arms (or like computer anology), feel free to let them know, when Sergio Rodriguez has an open three point shot, not only is it not the end of the world, it actually results in a T(otal)S(hot)% of 64%. I've compiled a list of guards that have a TS% of over 64%... Steve Nash. The point being, when you're criticizing Sergio's game this year, be fair about it. Things you're allowed to complain about on the offensive end include; Sergio's inability to finish at the rack and his inability to make supposedly easy mid range buckets... end of list.
The more important improvement in Sergio's game has been on the defensive end. Because stats on this end are harder to quantify, most of you will just have to rely on what you've seen on the court. Sergio gets into his player almost immediately upon that player passing the half court line (if not sooner), and he isn't playing off of them, but he's playing really tight defense. This eliminates a lot of his natural deficiencies as an athlete. While athletic, Sergio has a tendency to get his feet crossed when defending quicker PG's. When he plays up tight on the guys, he essentially forces them to choose their path, eliminating the potential cross overs, and Ole's, that people around here love to throw at him. Due to his toughness on the defensive end, point guards really have to work to get anything at all against him. Of the stats that are quantifiable on defense, Sergio is fairing very well. In 15 minutes per game, he's averaging 0.8 steals per game, which ends up at 2.4 steals per 48, which of the qualifying PG's in the league ranks him at #12 in that category, and if you adjust for pace, he's actually closer to 2.6 steals per 48, which would put him at #8 for qualiying PG's. The better and more important numbers I have to go to 82games.com for. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2.HTM - If you go down to production by position, you'll notice that the player that Sergio defends this year averages 6 assists and over 3 turnovers per 48 minutes. Thats incredibly low production for any PG. The player he's defending this year is also shooting an abysmal 36% eFG from the floor. Of the 66 PG's in the league that qualify not a single one of them shoots less than that from the floor. Basically, once again trying to endorse fairness on BE, if we're going to fairly assess his weakness on the defensive end, we can't discuss the Ole' part of his game anymore. The worst you could say about him, based strictly on his play from this season, is that he occasionally suffers from mental lapses. It appears that physically, he will eventually be able to control, or at least mitigate to some degree opposing PG's ability to gain easy access to the painted area. He has gotten to the point, where most possessions he's involved in usually end with the PG having to give the ball up to a less adept ball handler as soon as they cross the half court line. Rarely this year have we seen someone dominate Sergio in one on one situations for even a couple possessions in a row.
I guess what I'd like to get from this, is some fair and honest assessment on what you think Sergio's future could be here, or with another team. And if you'd prefer the future of this team to involve him or not. Not necessarily whether you care for his game, but in an ideal world, in 3-4 years can you see, or do you want to see him on the team. If so, how? Starting? Backing up? 10 minutes per game? 20 minutes per game? etc...
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I would like to see
1. Further incremental defensive improvement. I don’t expect any major steps forward in this area, but he’s now an adequate defender. I don’t think he’ll ever be great, but he has shot-blockers behind him, so he doesn’t have to be.
2. Further improvement in 3 pointers. I see no reason he can’t consistently be a 40-45% shooter, it just takes practice and concentration. The tools are there.
3. Learning to finish at the hoop, and actually be a threat to score instead of just dish when penetrating.
4. Improved mid-range shooting. This should be the easiest to improve, because he’s been so bad at it and there is nothing technically difficult about it. A guy who can hit near 40% from 3 can hit 45% from 15-20 feet.
5. Learning to play with Brandon.
I would like to see him playing 20 mpg behind Jerryd in 3-4 years. If he can do a couple of the things I’ve suggested, that is entirely realistic, and there is no reason he can’t. If he does all the things I suggested, he might start.
If I absolutely had to guess, I expect to see him included in a trade package of some kind. But the future is really hard to predict on this kind of stuff. You never know who will come available, and what his team will want in return.
Do you like asparagus?
I would like to see
1. A trade leading to Sergio’s departure.
"Now with a non-provocative footer!"
by timbo on Dec 10, 2008 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
ah, just when I was enjoying my morning
timbo fulfills his role as person who makes me wish for an ignore button.
"I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team."
by sergioFTW on Dec 10, 2008 8:44 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You don't want to ignore timbo
You are grateful for him discrediting the anti-Sergio crowd.
Do you like asparagus?
I really, really wish that was true.
"I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team."
old screenshot
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 10, 2008 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL
Keep that around for a while.
Do you like asparagus?
lol i was waiting for a good time to post it
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 10, 2008 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
ha that is the best
Every night the team scores 100 points is sort of a mini-Hispanic night.........all the fans get free Chalupas. --Bust a Bucket
Sorry Blake
But I would eventually Like to see Sergio and Bayless. Probably Bayless starting With Roy and Sergio and Rudy coming in of the bench together. That would be a year or two down the road so I’m not saying Bayless is ready or anything. blake is good for now. I just think Bayless Brings something we need to the team (attacking the basket, attitude) and Sergio brings his own style that would complement nicely. when the Offense gets stagnant and ball movement grinds to halt. Sergio is nice to have around. There are only a handful of guys that can create like he can and with his shot looking better and better I would hate to let him get away. Just my opinion.
Is Sergio's effective field goal percentage above average?
Where do we know that from? It would be great if it’s true.
It doesn't seem to be
Season to date his eFG% is .443, which isn’t much higher than his career mark of .439.
Compared to other guards on the Blazers he ranks behind Rudy (.563), Blake (.549) and Roy (.484)
Also I am not sure where the part about him having a TS% of .641came from as that accounts for all shots taken and not just 3 point shots. Basketball-reference.com has his TS% at .494, which isn’t mind blowingly awesome:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rodrise01.html
the TS% I referred to
was Sergio’s TS% on his 3 point shots. There have been a lot of people here complaining that Sergio takes too many 3 point shots, or that he shouldn’t shoot the 3 at all (or even shoot at all from some). The point I was making was when Sergio has an open 3 point look, that is awesome for this teams efficiency. I acknowledged in my post the legitimacy of complaints about his inability to knock down mid range shots, and finish at the rim.
I think that you are comparing apples to oranges
when you compare Sergio’s 3-point specific TS% to Nash’s TS% for all shots (FT, 2 pointers, 3 pointers). Why not simply look at their respective 3 point%? In that measurement Nash is shooting at .418 clip which happens to be his lowest mark in 5 years. This easily outpaces Sergio’s .368 mark.
Feel free to re-read the article
Nash is shooting at .418 clip which happens to be his lowest mark in 5 years. This easily outpaces Sergio’s .368 mark.
I went into specific detail and dredged through play by play for every game this year, to get a more accurate assessment of Sergio’s 3 point percentage. On non half court heaves, Sergio is shooting at a 42.4% clip from the 3 point line. The excessive percentage of his 3 point shots that happen to be half court heaves (13%) are distorting his actual effectiveness from the 3 point line. Sergio, up to this point in the season, is above average in defense and 3 point shooting.
42.4% from 3 is pretty good number
and had you not mentioned Nash’s TS%, we wouldn’t be having this back and forth.
Comparing Sergio’s 3 point specific TS% to Nash’s TS% from all shots seems to be mixing your metrics and thus not an accurate comparison. If your comment had compared Serio’s non-half court heave 3pt% to Nash’s non-half court have 3pt% and if they were similar that would have been a startling discovery.
Sergio's future role and finishing at the rim.
excellent post as11osu! I appreciate you did the research to find out the number of half-court heaves. the fact that he is effectively shooting 40+ from the arc is and amazing and needed improvement to his game, and likely it is boosting his confidence, which will help that percentage get even higher. His FT has also greatly improved this year: so far he is shooting 86% up from 66% last season.
Like jscot, I think Sergio would best suit this team playing 20 minutes a game with our Blitzkrieging Blazers second unit for the next couple years, and getting more minutes when the starter is off their game/Sergio is on fire. On this team starting matters less than on just about any other team in the NBA and while Sergio has shown he can play with Roy, I still think a spot up shooter PG is better suited to play next to Roy. I think as long as we’re winning and Sergio is getting his 20, he’ll be happy for a few years.
But after two years of 20+ minutes a game, playing in a couple playoff series and dozens of crucial stretches, i think there is a good chance he will have improved his play to the next level and be able to challenge any guard in the league for a starting role.
As for what he needs to improve on, i think we can all see that he needs to work on finishing at the rim. from what i can tell right now, it is mostly a mental issue—you can see the moment of hesitation when he breaks through the perimeter, when he is thinking “should I pass or shoot,” and if he decides to shoot, he thinks “am i gonna get blocked again, and where is their center at, anyway?”
He has had his shot blocked a few times when he didn’t have the awareness you need of where the other teams bigs are, and conversely, he has missed a few that he should have made because he was scared the shot was going to be blocked because, again, he didn’t know where the other teams bigs were. This is something that will improve in time, when he relaxes a little and develops an instinct for where the defense is and learns to elevate more and use his body to shield his lay-up from blockers. It’ll come, but not before a few dozen more blocks and a few more lay-ups that just rim out.
"I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team."
yep, oldest trick in the book
put your body between the defense and the rim, and jump into the defense while holding the ball away from them. much less likely to get your shot blocked and much more likely to get the foul call. right now, you can just feel the hesitation and timidity when he drives—he needs to explode to the basket for the last few feet, not just finesse it.
"I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team."
comparing to blake though...
Sergio finishes much better…not to mention looks to finish more than kick-out…not to mention penetrates more….not to mention, not to mention, not to mention….
I didn't mean to turn you on
Sergio was doing a great job last night of creating contact.
Probably his best game all year. its good to see him improving.
best game of his CAREER
Sergio looked quite good last night. I really love his new aggressiveness.
Way to go Sergio. I used to take a dim view of your b’ball future but you have proved me wrong.
"I would be in favor of trading LMA and Oden for a reliable starting PF at this point."
MT Suit, 11/25/08
best game is actually versus denver his rookie year
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 10, 2008 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
sergio doesnt win or lose us any games
at least for the past 2 years he hasnt. he’s always had such a small role and insignificant minutes at insignificant times. maybe you can make the argument now that he has an impact as he is getting crunch time minutes.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 12, 2008 3:39 AM PST up reply actions
Our future starter
The book on this team has become “Brandon should have the ball in his hands” so he needs a defending/shooting PG. And everyone is in love with Bayless’s potential. Frankly, I think having a creator on the floor with Brandon, especially one who is a running specialist, complements his skills perfectly.
Brandon is a great half-court player. With Sergio making us dangerous running off Oden & Aldridge’s shot-blocking, rebounding, and athleticism, and Brandon working with our two big-man threats in the half-court, but complemented by an athletic 3-point threat on the wing (all 3 current candidates fit that bill), I think our offense could be spectacular. Roy can run lots of half-court sets, Sergio can run us out in transition.
Bayless is a 2-guard. He’s a scorer. That’s Brandon’s role. Sergio can also penetrate, but he can contribute without taking a bunch of shots (much like Blake, except more dangerous on the move). We are going to have 4 starters who can score— GO, LA, B-roy, and either Rudy, Martell, Travis or Batum, all of whom are or will be very good offensive players. Do we really need a shoot-first penetrator at the point?
No, we need a guy who can shoot, play D, penetrate on offense, run the break, and set up our scorers.
If Bayless turns out to be an NBA player, and I think he will, he’ll be the perfect combo-guard off the bench. He’ll be the attacking scorer when Brandon is sitting, the perimeter defensive shark against the ubiquitous tweener scorers coming in off benches all over the league.
And don’t underestimate Sergio’s emotional contribution to that starting crew. He’s a passionate, excited basketball player. B-roy has all the killer instinct we need along with the steady-hand.
If Sergio keeps showing the will and ability to improve on his weaknesses, he’s our starter. I think it’ll happen. He’s proven he can play in this league— I can’t understand why everyone has anointed Bayless at this point. I don’t think his skills match up as well as everyone seems to think, and I certainly don’t think they are a better match than Sergio’s with the talent we have everywhere else.
by gcb on Dec 10, 2008 9:09 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'm in your camp.
The mid-range shot, the lay up and even the three need to improve. Once they do….
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
One year or five years down the line .....
there is no way I can fathom Bayless being our staring point guard.
Okay, since this is the "we are honest about what we see in our PGs thread", here are my thoughts
I like Sergio. Last season, Nate didn’t like Sergio. With the arrival of Rudy, Sergio has improved. Much improved. He is much closer to his first season in many aspects of his game than the abysmal last season. That is great. He is showing why he belongs in the NBA, and not back to Europe (before the season, it was a possibility that the Blazers would not pick up the final year of his contract). He is a really good pass-first backup point guard, and might even start on a few teams. At this point, I don’t think Sergio gets traded unless KP can get back the young point guard he always had his eyes on (and while we can guess who that is, we can’t be sure). This team is rolling, and Sergio is not the least important part of that. Upside: Lets stay real, he is not Steve Nash. But he could be a player similar to Jason Williams, which is not a knock on Sergio (the guy has a ring and made a nice reputation and some money for himself).
I still like Blake. Roy likes Blake. KP likes Blakes contract. Nate likes Blake. Nate likes consistency. As long as he doesn’t suddenly decline (and his shot has improved this year, especially from mid-range), he has a perfect role on this team as an off-guard to take the open shots next to Roy. It’s not arguable that he is better than Sergio at taking these. So he will continue to start on about all nights he is healthy, while Sergio takes some of his minutes – and might even close out some games. There are not many point guards in the league Nate would sign off on to bring in and start immediately over/instead of Blake. He should remain with the Blazers at least until his contract is up in 2010. Upside: Not much. He will stay Steve Blake and might even still get a little better since he works incredibly hard in training.
I like Bayless. People who want to throw him away in trades without ever having seen him play consistent minutes tick me off. Luckily, the Blazers won’t do that unless another GM gets a brain cramp and offers a real star at a discount but wants Bayless as part of the package in return. In that case you take abilities over potential. By all accounts, B-Rex is not an instant team centerpiece as Mayo or Rose, but he is not that far off as his current inability to get on the floor might make you believe (people made highlight comparisons of the two for a reason). In fact, his outside shot was better than Rose’s in college. His athleticism is amazing for a 6-3 guy, he has a harder drive and dunk than any guard on this team – probably even Roy. He is a fierce competitor. He is quick enough to defend good point guards (according to Brandon Roy and others). Once he gets used to leading a team and setting up his teammates, he will get some consistent playing time in a year or so, and the kid will bring us a lot of joy. Upside: In a few years, he could be a lot of things, from Monta Ellis with better defense and point guard skills to some version of Gilbert Arenas or Tony Parker. He should definitely be a much more dangerous scorer than most point guards.
Viva la Rudylucion
by Norsktroll on Dec 10, 2008 9:29 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
+1 on Bayless
I know he doesn’t know how to run the offense and most of the talks have centered around that BUT in the limited time i’ve seen him, he looks like a great defender. Brandon can help him set the offense, we should focus on Defense. Take a page from the C’s…they don’t practice offense, just defense.
Our biggest problem is perimeter defense. Well, why do we have bad perimeter defense? Because the opposing point guards can break down our PGs and make our wings collapse. Simple as that.
Having someone like Rex who is strong, and can guard/annoy a PG the full court, is a big deal. Nate even said Bayless is one of the most talented players we have and he’s not seeing minutes (this was one of his response to Sergio’s earlier trade demands)
I don’t know if he can do it but it looks like he is built that way. With his tenacity, I say give him a chance to be a PG defensive stopper and take the bumps with running his offense.
Speaking of offense, we don’t know how to run the pick and roll. The PG needs to drive should to shoulder to the “picker” so that their defenders can get sealed off. How many times have we casually run around a pick, and don’t run our defender to it? It’s my pet peeve with our offense. And we never roll because there is no good picks. This is the PGs fault.
Anyhow, we will continue to give up 45-48 field goal with the ways opposing guards are breaking down our perimeter defense. Case in point with Jameer Neslon running around untouch last night.
"I'm pooping a win for the Blazers too!" - my 1yr old.
Agree 100% on Bayless
I really believe he could be something special in the next 1-2 years. Great analysis on all three. Sergio is probably my least favorite of the group for now, but the Williams comparison is appropriate, I just don’t know if Sergio will ever givethe kind of consistency the Blazers need.
by blazeraddict on Dec 10, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
+1 on all three.
I respect Blake. He is doing a great job facilitating and playing low risk ball. I think he will continue to improve as the talent around him improves.
I enjoy Sergio. He’s fun to watch. The things that made me not want him on the court are FAR improved. If he can replicate that improvement, he’ll be champion quality.
I like many things I expect Jbay will one day be known for, and as with Oden, I’m comfortable waiting for the cake to bake. His toughness, defensive potential, offensive skill set and his maturity seem championship quality now. We are asking a teenager, one year removed from high school, to run the program. This is a much more difficult task than what we ask of the other three rookies.
I am very content with where we are. I am sure that we will see a rotation reduction, and I have little confidence that any GM is dumb enough to give us a talent sufficient to give any of these guys away.
But I’m hoping…
Perfect practice makes perfect.
Blake is getting better, KP and Nate like him
Blake is improving in the areas he’s needed to improve: Knocking down the midrange jumper, and becoming a serious 3 point threat. However, if he could create his own shot, or run the pick and roll with efficiency he would be a star. There aren’t many guards that can do this, however. None are available right now. Better to improve at the SF position.
Dream on ....
An elite point guard must have the ability to see the floor, assimilate the current situation and make the appropriate decision whether it be pass, drive or dribble. I don’t think any of us have seen even a hint of these abilities in Bayless, hence I wonder where all these expectations are coming from. Sure, some of those skills can be learned, but the good ones I’m sure have possessed an abundance of those abilities innately.
Yeah, he has an outside shot I guess (although with a terrible, blockable release), and yep he can drive to the hoop probably with the best of them. That doesn’t make him a point guard. There’s a reason he slid clear down to us in the draft …. and I never believed the assertion that, had we held the #4 position in the draft, he would have been our choice. That was just an uplifting thing to say at the moment when we were able to nail him at #11 (or whatever it was)
I am going to predict the future
Blake starts for the remainder of the season, Sergio’s avg. Minutes slowly go up
Blake starts next season and Sergio’s Avg. Minutes continue to go up, Sergio may also see a handful of starts and Bayless may see some more time as well.
2010 – 2011 Sergio Starts, Bayless is back up and Blake is no longer with the team
How does Sergio + Bayless = 16? Is there an inside joke I’m missing?
I support The VD Special in his attempt to support takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by inroywetrust on Dec 10, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Sergio´s number 11. Bayless´ number 4. Nate´s message for our players is 15=16, 15 playing together take us to the playoffs.
Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16
Aha! Thank you
I support The VD Special in his attempt to support takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by inroywetrust on Dec 10, 2008 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Hey amlmart1! That is one of the new ones isn't it?
I love it and most of the new ones!
(There are a couple of exceptions.)
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA you are MONSTER!!!
38:10 Mins 9-18 FGs 1-2 3s 1-2 FTs +18 6 Off 8 Rebs 2 Blks 20 Points! - LMA vs Tor 12-7-08
by LaMarvelous on Dec 10, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, it is.
And I agree about that couple of exceptions.
Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16
Great timing
I was preparing a Sergio post myself.
At the very least, Sergio has established a claim as a bonafide, good or better backup NBA point guard.
As you point out, his three point shot is better than his percentage suggests. A lot of NBA players won’t throw that shot up at all because they don’t want to taint their stats. Credit to Serge that he’s unselfish enough to throw up those prayers.
The main thing most people want in a point guard is a lot of mistakes and relatively few turnovers, with the ability to score when the shot is presented.
Among NBA point guards, the player with the most assists per 48 minutes is Chris Paul.
And who is second? Sergio.
The complaint is that he makes too many mistakes.
But among all NBA point guards, Sergio has the tenth best assist to turnover ratio.
Count me among the fans who think the Hollinger rankings are useful. They currently ranks Blake #21 among all point guards, and Sergio #25—and their ranking includes guys who’ve done well in very limited minutes. The rankings suggest that both deserve to be starters on at least a few NBA teams.
And Sergio appears to be improving significantly. He’s gone from a ~9 to ~15 in his Hollinger numbers (a 65 percent leap), an improvement even greater than Joel’s 55 percent improvement.
Our much bigger issues, it seems, are Channing’s utter lack of production and Travis’s inconsistency and inability to play within a productive team concept on offense and defense. A solid banger at the four and a reliable and smart veteran at the three would improve this team. Finding a replacement for Sergio not only seems low on the list; it wouldn’t even be on mine. His chemistry with Rudy alone is reason to have him for sheer ignition purposes, and if he continues to improve, their combination could be not just helpful, but critical.
a well-thought-out post
thanks as11osu. I appreciate it.
I don’t have any conjecture about who will stay and who will go. I like Sergio’s game and I think he took big strides during this last off-season. If Sergio doesn’t stay in Portland, I wish him all the best. Perhaps he will return to Europe for a large-money deal when his current contract expires. – Elgin.
It's all blues and no dinner at the Ministry of Bag. The steaks are getting thinner. The office is a drag. - Pete Brown
Sergio statistical correction
Is really good news! Last night was a break-out night for Sergio. Best I’ve seen him look. At the same time (no coincidence) that’s as good as I’ve seen our offense look. Thought there was a synergy of Rudy/Sergio and LMA/Roy when all 4 were on the court in the fourth that I’ve not seen before.
And they were having a good time while playing. No grinding. That smile on Joel’s face after Rudy’s assist was probably my happiest moment of the season so far.
This fan would be happy if Sergio got PT up in to the high 20s.
Thx for the post.
by Blazin' on Dec 10, 2008 12:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I seriously don’t think the NBA should be counting full-court heaves at all. The NCAA doesn’t. Even desperation heaves at the end of shot clocks don’t get counted if they aren’t in the flow at all.
I’m also really happy that Sergio is working out. He’s one of my favorite Blazers.
"Brandon Roy, that man is unstoppable, it's like he's playing NBA Live." - Anthony Carter
Yes, that seems like a no-brainer
The NBA already does everything imaginable to distort the game in order to encourage fan-pleasing shots. (Most notably, they’ve all but eliminated travelling calls on drives to the hoop.) And every fan loves seeing half-court, end of quarter shots. Yet the NBA has been too dumb to realize that most players are intentionally waiting until AFTER the horn to take those shots so as to not lower their shooting percentages.
To Sergio’s credit, he’s been willing to take the hit on his shooting percentage in order to attempt those shots. But he shouldn’t have to take that hit. Hello, David Stern: wake up from those International dreams long enough to change this rule!
"If [Roy & Aldridge] walked around in fur coats, with a bunch of glamour & glitz, we'd have a bunch of guys wearing fur coats. But they don't. They're just good guys who want to win and know how to play the right way." --Kevin Pritchard
Interesting aside on half-court heaves
I keep make the box-score for the Missouri Valley Conference games and we use the NCAA stats book. In it, we are specifically told to ignore half-court heaves unless they’re credible shots (or they happen to go in).
I’m faintly surprised to find them showing up in NBA box scores but I recall one of the Mikes makingt he same point.
It’s kind of like regarding the “kneel-down” at the end of a football game as a 1yd loss.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
Nicely done, as11osu!
Everyone else has said everything else.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA you are MONSTER!!!
38:10 Mins 9-18 FGs 1-2 3s 1-2 FTs +18 6 Off 8 Rebs 2 Blks 20 Points! - LMA vs Tor 12-7-08
Ditto
Again and Again, we have to remind ourselves that this is Sergio’s third year, Bayless’s 1st, and Blakes the savy vet that gives us some consistency. Who takes us where? Who knows. We’ll just have to talk about it, and let it develope.
by Eben Calder on Dec 10, 2008 1:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Good Post
Truthfully, I think Sergio compliments Roy. We saw it last night. Roy is going to start seeing more and more double teams, that leads me to believe we need a PG like Sergio on the floor who can create open shots for others. Especially with his defense & shot improving at this rate. Keep improving & the more minutes you shall get !
I am done with Trade Posts.
Just sign Rondo in '09
On paper
it doesnt really make sense…but now that they have been playing with each other more and more…its starting to work. i think its partly due to sergios improved defense tho…he is no longer a liability on defense…not exactly a strength of our team but no longer a big liability.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 10, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
Here's the problem
The defense would love the ball to be out of Roy’s hands. They’ll let Sergio shoot as much as he wants. Sergio’s man will also basically cheat and double Roy as well. Forget the percentages, Sergio is just plain not scoring enough to make the defense honor him.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
you did not watch last night's game obviously
there are some games this year where that has been the case, but last night was not one of them. 14 points on under 10 shot attempts is plenty of offensive production from our PG slot
Rooo-D!
Hey truls
I don’t disagree with your post, but you might want to look at this:
http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2007/5/27/35733/4476
Look at rule 5c. Thanks.
"Brandon Roy, that man is unstoppable, it's like he's playing NBA Live." - Anthony Carter
One game vs whole season/career
Sergio also scored 23 points against Denver in his rookie year.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
his assists
You have to count his assists as part of his offense. He is able to create shots for others when Roy is unable to create. This is one of the reasons Sergio is often subbed in when Roy is out, to keep the offense flowing. His increased shooting percentages just make it easier for him, due to the defense having to take him seriously now. If they let Sergio shoot as much as he wants, they’re going to be hurting this year. In previous years, that wasn’t true.
"Brandon Roy, that man is unstoppable, it's like he's playing NBA Live." - Anthony Carter
I was responding to having Roy and Sergio on the court at the same time
Especially in late 4th quarter, you want the ball in the hands of the best scorer and playmaker. That’s Roy. Roy and LMA had a great two-man game going in the 4th last night. I don’t mind Sergio handling the ball with the 2nd unit.
His shooting percentage is 36% this year and he makes .6 3-pointers a game. Those are not serious shooting numbers for the defense to worry about. The defense would want Sergio to shoot ahead of everyone else on the court.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
Respectfully disagree
Sergio chewed up Orlando’s defense last night not with shooting but passing. Orlando had an answer when the Iso game started and Sergio came out of the game. Double-team. Trap.
Scoring is not Sergio’s strength. running the offense is his strength. The point of the OP is that his distance shooting need no longer be viewed as a deficiency.
This is just not accurate
Orlando doubled Roy the last 2 minutes of the game because they had no answer for Roy isos. Not because Sergio wasn’t on the court. Roy was tearing them up the entire 4th quarter. The problem was the rest of the team not executing which was the post-game theme spoken from the coach to the players.
The point of the OP is that his distance shooting need no longer be viewed as a deficiency.
My point is Blake is still the more favorable PG when Roy is doing all the ball handling. Blake just shoots the ball better than Sergio.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
non-sequitor
Orlando doubled Roy the last 2 minutes of the game because they had no answer for Roy isos. Not because Sergio wasn’t on the court.
Did I say they doubled Roy because Sergio wasn’t on the court?
What I will say is that it was more effective because Sergio was not on the court.
I retract my statement
I guess I misinterpreted your words.
Otherwise, it seems like the trap worked because the Blazers did not run the play they had prepared for in practice under the same circumstance. Nate and Roy both mentioned it in the post game. Whether Sergio would have made much of a difference I’m not so sure because the play calls for Outlaw to receive the ball in the middle as Quick reported, not the PG.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
question
where do you find stats that show heaves vs, legit three pointers? Do you have shot charts for each game, if if so, where can we find them?
If they do actually keep them I'm unaware of where...
What I did to find it, was go through every single one of the play by play’s for this year and counted every last second shot by Sergio and Blake for comparisons sake. Sergio took 5 making 0, Blake took 3 making 0. There were however, a startling number of regular shots this team has taken in the final 3 seconds of quarters that have gone in. Not only from Sergio, but Rudy, Brandon and LaMarcus.
Ladys & Gentleman
You can find those stats at NBA Hotspots
Be sure to use the drop down boxes, Blazers, Rodriguez, 08-09, then update the chart. Here are the results.
Take a look at his 07-08 season to see just how much he has improved & yes as11osu, use the charts in your original post ;)
by TheGreatDane17 on Dec 10, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Ok...
You may think “hey sergio blows with his straight 3’s”… I don’t think its him, I think its the Spanish as a whole because Rudy is 2/10 or 2/8.
Another note… Not a single shot from that area?
finally… Last year, brandons entire shot chart… Was gray except at the basket :P
by TheGreatDane17 on Dec 10, 2008 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
Just an observation
Seems like he shoots poorly from dead center on the 3 point line bc those are usually when he has to set up himself, whereas from the wings and corner he is a recipient of a kickout.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Dec 10, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
this chart is useless for distinguishing the heaves
which was he whole point of as11osu’s post. It could very well be that it is putting the heaves in that center area by default, which would make him really 0-2 from there. Anyway . . .
"I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team."
Sergio has been ratcheting his play up all season...
He is really starting to impress me. I have always liked Sergio but I think we are really starting to see the flashes of brilliance that so many people around here have dieing to see He definitely has areas where he needs to improve, but so far so good. If Steve Blake wasn’t such a flamethrower from deep, Sergio might be giving him a run for his money…
RUDY > MJ
more interesting Sergio stats
When Sergio plays 20 mins or more in a game he avgs…
pts: 7.0
Ast: 6.3
Reb: 2.2
TO: 1.6
The Blazers record in games where Sergio plays 20+ mins
2-4
But when he plays 15 minutes or more
we’re 9-3.
See.. I can make a meaningless stat say things it shouldn’t as well.
Sergio Plays 20+ mins in games where we are pretty far behind but trying to catch up I would guess
If both usmcr3049 and as11osu stats are correct than your math is beyond me. How could the blazers lose fewer games (4 to 3) when the second pool (15+ minutes) includes the first pool (20+ minutes)?
I agree that stats like this are akin to saying ‘we play better every time i sacrifice a cat during the pre-game show.’
its actually 9-4
doesn’t change the fact that the stat itself is meaningless. I guess since we’re 2-4 when Sergio is over 20 minutes, and 7-0 when he’s between 15 and 20 minutes means Nate should never play him less than 15 and more than 20, right?
That isn’t how the game works.
Just a quick mea culpa
I was one who felt Sergio was never going to be an NBA-caliber point guard. I felt the Blazers only kept him around because he’d been a Paul Allen pick and because he could serve as Rudy bait. Looks like I was wrong—the kid has improved, and he and Rudy together are magic.
Having said that, I don’t know if Sergio is going to be a Blazer long-term. Blake is essentially a coach on the floor—very important to the Blazers’ long-range plans (even if he ends up as the back-up). And Bayless seems to have the very abilities Sergio & Blake lack and which the Blazers face in opposing point guards: that is, the ability to defend and to finish. Plus, based on the Celtic game, Bayless appears to be very tough. This guy is like Jarrett Jack on steroids.
What to do? Three point guards plus a star shooting guard who moves to the point is just too many.
"If [Roy & Aldridge] walked around in fur coats, with a bunch of glamour & glitz, we'd have a bunch of guys wearing fur coats. But they don't. They're just good guys who want to win and know how to play the right way." --Kevin Pritchard
I disagree
Sergio is a better defender then Bayless right now, but Bayless is the better finisher until I see more of Serge at the rim.
by TheGreatDane17 on Dec 11, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
Que Sera Sera [Lot of moving parts].
There are far too many variables that have nothing to do with Sergio.
It is still very early to have a clear sense of direction.
1. Motion Offense
Around the same time that Sergio’s game has picked up, Blazers have been integrating more sophisticated offensive schemes. Both Rudy (AND Brandon) are attempting to get free off of curls, we are pushing the ball up harder, … Sergio’s game is more conducive to these offenses. The team is still in its infancy in the growth curve of offensive sophistication. If the Blazers continue to find success with the motion kind of sets, Sergio’s minutes will increase even further; and thus his role is integrally linked to the evolving identity of the team as a whole, and not just Sergio himself.
2. PostUp with our Bigs
Lets not forget our bigs are really young. Imagine LaMarcus unfolding into a big that was as FEARFULLY unstoppable as Karl Malone or Charles Barkley were. Imagine Greg perfecting his moves, and unfolds into a FEARFULLY unstoppable ShaqLike presence. Which PG will be our best option to get the ball down into the post? Nash and Kidd can feed the ball in off the dribble, integrating a fluid motion into the PostUp game. Sergio might be this kind of PG. However, both sides of this equation are a long way from reality.
3. Brandon Roy time is a different ballgame (ala BRoy Iso-KickOuts).
There are time when Brandon needs to take over — mostly down the stretch in close games, but sometimes early on, when we are struggling to find rhythm. At those times, the other guard becomes the shooting guard on offense, but will still need to take on speedy point guards on defense [anyone remember BJ Armstrong with the Bulls]. Here, Sergio’s strengths do not play well in this mode. But there are lots of other options on the team for these time frames.
4. Reacting to defenses.
The Orlando game was a great example where the “Sergio offensive schemes” were able to pick apart the defense much better than the “SteveBlake offensive schemes”. Expect constant iteration with our young team — defenses react, we get better, defenses get better, we get better. Which schemes will survive is still TBD.
5. And eventually we get to the playoffs.
Which is yet another story, where you are only playing against top opposition, both have the same days of rest, and you play them over and over again continuously. Has anyone on this team ever been to the playoffs? Regular season success doesn’t directly translate into championships, and many great teams have been retooled, because they could not deliver the final step — eg Phoenix Suns.
Taking these factors into account, how much of the starting point guard spot is in Sergio’s hands. We do need a point guard, because bringing the ball up against harassing point guards is hard work, and you dont want Brandon shouldering this load all game long; and also we dont want to be in Brandon Roy mode all game long. But doesn’t the type of PG also depend on how the rest of the team (rest of the story) unfolds?
Sergio has made a strong case for himself. WooHoo. It makes for some great Blazer basketball. Most of the posters have expressed areas of his game that he could improve on. Some of these will require hard work on Sergio’s part. Some might work themselves out as Sergio continues to develop greater confidence in himself, and flourishes in the confidence of his coach.
The future is wide open. [Sorry too many songs in my memory banks].
by FromAfar on Dec 11, 2008 5:25 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
very nice
i look forward to your nest perspective
Travis please save us
by Sabonis4Ever on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST Gameday Open Thread: Blazers vs. Knicks on Blazer's Edge
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