As much as I dislike raising trade possibilities which are supported only by speculation, two  indisputable circumstances suggest that a major move lies ahead for the Trailblazers. Both circumstances are obvious, and the possibilties seem very promising.

First,  the Blazers have too many talented players either to play or to hold. Brandon, Greg, LA, and Rudy all have all star potential. Joel and Steve are plainly assets. Travis, Martel, Sergio, Channin, and Nic all have obvious value. And, that list doesn't include Jerryd, who showed potential  during summer league and Ike. In total, we have 11 players who reasonably expect miunutes.

This situation is at best unstable. During the season, we can expect to play say nine, and during the playoffs  eight. At best, the players who don't play will either demand to be traded [ala Sergio] or will leave at their first glimpse of free agency.  At worst, they will over time create dissension. The obvious solution is a 2 or more likely 3 for 1 trade where we receive an upgrade for a starter's position. Of course the key question is who  might be available.

To answer this question, brings us to the second relevant circumstance; the  Blazers present situation makes possible the acquisition of a truly great player. Much talk about the Blazers upgrade possibilities has focused on the cap room [probably 20+ million] we will have after the 2009 season. I think that room may produce a  bounty but not for the obvious reason. First of all, the free agent players available next summer would not help us much if at all. We presently have great talent and I, like moany of you, would be content to wait to see who will rise to the top. Moreover, great talent seldom moves through free agency. The cap room required is too great and the putative acquiring team would have to  give up so much that the star player would likely find the team unattractive. Take for example New York and LeBron. Sure,  the Knicks play in a huge market but how likely is it that LeBron would be willing to go there to play with the remnants they have left? Is money what really motivates a player like LeBron?

No, the more likely path for start talent to move is through a trade. Sure,  on its face no team has incentive to trade great talent but if their star is going to move anyway, their more pressing need is to get something consequential in return. Minnesota didn't want to trade KG, but they did. The past is full of similar situations - Shaq [twice] and Kareem to name a few. And, the most pregnant time for such a trade is the year before the star will become a free agent. That is the moment when the star's team has the  leverage. At worst, they can play another year with the star all the time hoping for a change of heart. At best, they can command a premium for giving up something of great value that they don't have to deal.

Today, the Trailblazers have  extraordinary assets to offer. We can send  (1)  two or even three players who have already demonstrated promise [you pick from everyone other than Brandon, LA, Rudy and Greg],  plus (2) one high quality player [the obvious choice would be LA], plus (3) a fine collection of first and second round draft choices. All of the players would be young, which is an asset to the receiving team since they will necessarily be in the rebuilding mode. In addition, we can absorb a large salary differential because of our cap room. Can any team reasonably offer more? Could any team facing the inevitable loss of its star reasonalby refuse?

So who would be worth such a trade. Clearly only a superstar and a young versatile one at that. Take as an example LeBron. During the last two weeks he has gone on record to make clear that he will look out for his own interests in free agency. By his own intersts, LeBron said he will only go to a team that would offer the possibility of multiple championships.No matter what the headlines, that team will not be NY or Brooklyn. And, based on LeBron's criteria, no team has more to offer LeBron that the Blazers. Say just as an example we sent LA, Martel, Travis  and Bayless together with a bunch of other consideration. That would leave LeBron to play with Brandon, Greg, Rudy, Nic, Joel, Steve,  Channing and Sergio. Since all but two of those guys are under 24, LeBron would have much to look forward to. Also, he would have an owner who has shown he will not spare any expense if the talent warrants it.

Of course, a few details would be essential to make such a swap happen. Cleveland would have to be pretty certain that LeBron was lost to them. From our side, LeBron would have to commit to resigning as a part of the trade. But those points would be easy to address if a trade were in fact looming. And, such a possiblity seems realistic given LeBron's recenly expressed intentions.

Plainly, the LeBron scenario is no favorite. He is too talented and will be too desired for stiff compettiton not to assert itself. But, we will have to do something, we have much to offer and we have kevin Pritchard. If it's not LeBron that we go after, it will be some other star. The free agent field of 2010 has several other worthy offerings.