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Better than Advertised

It's not often I get to sit down and watch an entire game uninterrupted.  To do it without having to get up in the middle of the night was really nice.

Overriding Impression

We are very good, as good as I thought we would be, but far earlier than I thought it would happen.  And we are going to get better, because some of the weaknesses are naturally going to go away over time.  The Pistons' announcer said, at the end of the first half, "These Portland Trailblazers are as good as advertised."  This was, in my opinion, our best win of the season.  We went into the house of a legit top 10 team and whipped them. 

Team Points that Impressed Me

  1. Team defense was outstanding.  Guys get beat, but they are funneling the man with the ball into the help.  Except for the first half of the fourth, you always felt like we would stop these guys often enough to get the job done.  Their first half run was built on our offensive breakdowns -- our defense was always pretty solid. 
  2. We're fighting through screens often enough.
  3. Our off-the-ball defense is good.
  4. The Detroit announcers were praising our ball movement at times.  We were finding the open man.
  5. The bench tried to up the pace at times.  Limited success, but we saw some running out of them.  I really like seeing that -- if they can become an effective fastbreak unit, we'll be devastating.
  6. Composure.  Our starters came out and gave them a whipping in the first quarter.  They upped their defense and came back at us, and we responded by re-establishing the lead.  Then, they ran at us again hard in the fourth.  We couldn't stop them AT ALL, and their defense was aggressive and forcing mistakes, and they took the lead.  Our starters came back in and slapped them down like little kids.  You simply don't do that to teams like Detroit in Detroit.  You fold.  It is only elite teams that have been through the fire that do that, teams like San Antonio, Boston, etc.  LA has the talent to respond in that way, but I don't know if they have the mentality to do it.
  7. LMA was hot, but we weren't forcing it to him.
  8. Roy was the man in the last six minutes, but everyone was involved.  I think all five starters scored in the last six minutes of the game.  That gets hard to defend when everyone can hurt you.
  9. Big play -- Under 3 minutes left, Detroit down by about 10, and they need a quick score.  Instead, they got a 24 second violation.  Veteran teams do NOT do that, they get up a shot quickly -- you have to get a quick score.  Superb team defense, simply superb.  You might expect that to happen against OKC, or against a young team like the Warriors.  You do not do that to Detroit -- but we did.  You expect the Spurs to do that to Detroit occasionally.  You do not expect the Trailblazers to do it.
  10. Few teams can hope to match up with our size.  Detroit proved for a couple minutes there that going ultra-small won't really help you much, either.  Sorry.

Individual Points that Impressed Me

  1. Gregzilla's Interior Defense.  Our perimeter defenders get beat sometimes.  That's life in the NBA.  But I saw three things happen more than once: A) the penetrating player had his shot blocked B) a player beat his man, drove towards the hoop, and then changed direction AWAY from the hoop C) a shot's trajectory was changed to get over/around the big man, and missed.  When this happens repeatedly, you win games, lots of them.  Both Greg and Joel were doing this over and over again.
  2. Greg's rebounding in the first was scary, big-time scary.  When he learns to own the boards like that all the time, we'll be sending three men on the break as soon as a shot goes up.
  3. Detroit's announcers seemed impressed that our backup center is averaging 9 rebounds a game.  
  4. Sergio scoring, both on a 3 and on the drive.  We want Sergio to be pass-first, but if they have to respect him as a scoring threat as well, he's going to be so very good.  He may never start for us, but he may be a devastating weapon off the bench.
  5. Brandon Roy is unstoppable when he wants to be.  It really isn't fair to put someone like Herrmann on him.  I could not find it in my heart to feel sorry for Herrmann, though.  I may regret that some day, but I doubt it. 
  6. LaMarcus had a monster game against Sheed.  That is worth more than a single win.  That's "changing of the guard" stuff there.  LMA's confidence will be sky-high.  That's a good thing when we're going to Boston soon. 
  7. Travis had a poor game, but didn't put up a whole bunch of stupid shots, and knocked down two big 3s.  I can live with the poor games from Travis if he doesn't go 0-12.
  8. Nic made some really rookie mistakes out there, but didn't get down, and came back and knocked in a big jumper in the clutch.  He's a gamer.
  9. Steve Blake was very impressive to me tonight.  Two minutes left, we get the ball, he pushes it hard -- and then pulls out, because there was nothing there.  He killed some time, then passed it to Brandon, who did his thing.  I think we ran 20 seconds off and Greg got fouled.  Such an intelligent play by Steve when you've got the lead.  He didn't have a great shooting night like some that he's had, but he hurt them with the shots he made.

Some Things that Showed We'll Still Improve

  1. On off-the-ball screens for Rudy, they were dedicating two men to watching Rudy.  One man was popping out to deny him the ball (the defender of the guy who set the pick, typically), and one was watching the back-door cut so Sergio couldn't throw an alley-oop.  You can do a pick and roll off the ball, too -- and if we do that, this defensive maneuver will be punished.  The man setting the screen needs to roll to the hoop or pop towards the ball for an open jumper.  Something like this will be implemented once Nate & co get a chance to look at the film and do some stuff in practice.  Long term, teams won't be able to deny Rudy the ball so effectively.
  2. Batum will make fewer mistakes as time goes by.  I'd say to myself, "Get the rookie out, he's not ready for games at Detroit yet," and he'd come back with some superb play.  More and more, those mistakes will disappear.
  3. Greg is just a shadow of what he'll be on offense by the playoffs.
  4. As Greg's conditioning improves, the rebound rate we saw in the first quarter will happen more often.  It isn't fair to add him to a team with Roy and LMA.
  5. We are going to get better second unit PF play.  Either Channing will find himself again, or Travis will take his minutes and play better.  I can foresee a fast-breaking second unit with Sergio, Rudy, Batum, Travis, and Joel doing a lot of damage.  We've seen some occasional trapping defense -- I can see a unit like that doing some of that.  The problem with traps is that you can get beat for layups and easy shots, but that unit would have three shot blockers to erase accidents.

I expect no trades during the season.  Last year, in December, we found chemistry, and went on a tear.  This year, we've found chemistry, and we have talent to go with it.  The future is now.  This team can beat anybody, any time, anywhere.  They may fold in the first round of the playoffs.  They may tear their first round opponent to shreds.  But whatever happens in the playoffs, in the regular season they are going to win a whole lot of games.  My 55 win prediction may be too low.

These Portland Trailblazers are better than advertised.

Comment 79 comments  |  20 recs  | 

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They are starting to find confidence

With that comes the belief that you can beat good teams. I think that was the ingredient that was missing last year. This is especially evident in Brandon, I see no fear in the man’s eyes at all this season – he truly believes he can beat anyone. And so far he has, with the exception of the very first game of the season.

I agree with everything else you said. This is about the third or fourth game in a row that every player has contributed something.

Also Detroit looks kind of lost with AI, I much prefer Billups. I bet the rest of the Pistons do too.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Dec 1, 2008 7:07 AM PST reply actions  

JS, you have a mistake in the post.

Section 1, point 8 and Section 2, point 7 are exactly the same, the 24 second violation.

I don’t blame you for noting it twice (it was huge), but still.

Also, I’d add another area we’ll improve in: Greg was open repeatedly inside for easy 2’s, but we don’t know how to feed him yet. I look forward to improvement there.

by Timmay! on Dec 1, 2008 7:21 AM PST reply actions  

Thanks, and fixed

I actually had section 1 and 2 together initially, and split them apart — but somehow, left that one in both. One of those rookie mistakes, apparently. Fortunately, I was able to come back with some superb play. More and more, those mistakes will disappear. I’m a gamer, you know.

You are right about Greg being open, I noticed that a couple times, too, now that you mention it. I’d forgotten those. It’s like we’ve gone to the other extreme, from force feeding it into him to not getting it to him often enough. There will always be times when you miss an open man, that’s part of the game, but I’m sure we’ll miss fewer of those as time goes by, too. The thunder-jam which follows is too effective to pass up many of those.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 7:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Feeding Greg

I’ve noticed Sergio having better luck getting the ball to Greg in good position better than anyone else. I know we need Greg to start, but he would be scoring more were he still coming off the bench.

quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur

by dvcastle on Dec 1, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

You the man, jscot.

All good points.
It WAS the best win of the season as far as demonstrating to the league what’s up with our team. A legit East powerhouse brought down by a suddenly-legit West player. The real deal.

__Yes this is my passport photo__
+
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
=
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Dec 1, 2008 7:45 AM PST reply actions  

I'll go with that...

The Orlando win was right there in terms of difficulty and how important it was to set the tone for the trip, but Boston is on this road trip, so winning the first one was even more important. And the way this one went down was more impressive.

by ranma on Dec 1, 2008 7:58 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah

The Orlando win and this one were really big. The thing about Orlando is, they are extremely talented, and will win more games than the Pistons, probably. But we did to the Pistons what they have historically done to other teams.

The Orlando win said we’re good enough to beat very talented teams. This win said we can beat experienced teams the way experienced teams usually beat other teams. We’re growing up fast.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 8:10 AM PST up reply actions  

Great points. Two remarks on Sergio and Nic

Blake had a really good performance against Iverson. But despite an ugly turnover I was really impressed how Sergio held his own against Stuckey who is undoubtedly a guard on the rise in this league. He drove way more to the rim with a purpose instead of just dribbling the clock down and nothing happening. I joked during the gameday thread that he had discovered his inner Tony Parker. I hope that comes true. An aggressive Sergio is way better than a timid one, and Rudy does a good job of signaling him when to push and improvise and when to wait for the set play.

One more little thing I saw in that game: Nic is doing a great job inbounding the ball. That usually goes unnoticed, unless you turn the ball over by passing to a player in a bad spot where he can’t do anything with it or even directly to the opponent in crunch time. I have seen Dallas and Minny losing games this year because of that on passes from Josh Howard (intercepted by Jameer Nelson) and Randy Foye (to Tony Parker). He also is the go-to defender for inbounds on the other end. E.g. Nate put him in to defend the pass in the final seconds of the Houston game. On that occasion Yao still got the ball and scored, but you see the confidence they have in him on these plays.

by Norsktroll on Dec 1, 2008 8:35 AM PST reply actions  

hard to believe Phil Jackass was ever an athlete

The dude is a decrepid wreck these days. He can hardly even walk.

"I would be in favor of trading LMA and Oden for a reliable starting PF at this point."

MT Suit, 11/25/08

by MT Suit on Dec 1, 2008 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah...he was b rate...or so

…had a white mans afro….probably weighed 185 @ 6’5?…I do remember him on those OOB plays tho for sure….think it was 1974

he was likely the victim of antiquated orthopedic techniques…alot of pro’s suffer with old the old injuries..

by LetsBlaze on Dec 1, 2008 6:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Phil Jackson came off the bench

for a great TEAM. Those Knicks really passed the ball. Everyone knew their roles. Frazier and Monroe were awesome. It would be fun to sit with the current Blazers and watch an old Knick game from back in the day.

Phil was brainy even then, but if you had told me then that he would wind up one of the great all-time NBA coaches, I would have laughed at you. – Elgin.

He who life can no longer surprise raises his eyes, beholds a planet unknown. - Peter Gabriel

by 22baylor on Dec 2, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Good comments, I agree

Sergio had trouble at times on the defensive end with Stuckey, but I think anyone would have.

I hadn’t noticed the inbounding. It’s those little things that can make the difference between a playoff team and a contender, or a contender and a champion. As guys become really proficient at lots of little things, you eliminate turnovers, and you increase everyone’s comfort level. Everyone knows this guy will inbound the ball, and do it well, you concentrate on other things.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

They either go to Blake or Nic for these plays when it matters to bring the ball to the right guy

I can’t say who usually does it on the second unit, maybe Rudy who is also the designated foul shooter when Blake is off the floor. And while I wouldn’t draw up a play to put the ball into the hands of Gregzilla when you know you get fouled, at least our big guys are no liability that you have to take out of the game in crunch time.

by Norsktroll on Dec 1, 2008 9:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Who would have thought,

two years ago, that you would say that about Joel?

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 10:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Nic #8, with a bullet, among SFs in Hollinger's PER ratings. Guess who is #9?

…… Tayshuan Prince. Trout is at #23. Those who have been suggesting that Nic is playing better are backed up by the numbers.

With Martell coming back, I think it is becoming clear that the Trout at SF experiment is coming to an end with mixed results. I think the most likely scenario is Trout taking most of the back-up minutes at the 4. I love Frye, but I think he is going to the bench as the #3 center and #3 PF. Longer term, I think this team could use a better #3 center in place of Diogu.

Nic is good and he is only going to get better. He has a higher b-ball IQ, at nineteen, than Trout, as a five year vet. He can’t create his own shot as well as Trout, but he doesn’t force it and doesn’t hesitate when he is open.

“Martell the shooter, and Nic the smooth mover, both of whom can defend.” Sounds like the SF of the future that we have been talking about.

Personally, I think it is time to stop talking about SF trades. We have a wealth of talent at the 3. We just need an ounce of patience to let it develop. It won’t take long.

by upper left corner on Dec 1, 2008 9:42 AM PST reply actions  

Travis isn't ready for 4th qt. play against Detroit.

I am in full Travis Hate mode today.

Batum did great but the game ball goes to Aldridge for playing superb D and shooting hot as fire. I predicted that LMA and Sheed would have to play on par w/ eachother and let Brandon win this one. Sure enough LMA plays better than sheed and Brandon see’s Hammy’s 18 and raises him 8 and we have a Dub. Im soo satisfied w/ this win.

Sophia

"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson

by BlazerFan1 on Dec 1, 2008 10:12 AM PST reply actions  

do you have an email adress , i need to say somethin to ya and dont want to do so publicly

thanks

btw i cant watch youtube at work but im sure they are all travis is awesome look what he just did plays.
Sophia

"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson

by BlazerFan1 on Dec 1, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

they are

u kan watch at home thow. ill send u an email, and u kan reply if u like

by maid tu rek on Dec 1, 2008 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Who would have thought

that Sophia would like a Dubya?

Wasn’t that 3 Travis knocked down from the top of the key in the 4th? That was a big shot.

Don’t let hate cloud your analysis. Travis didn’t play great, but he didn’t kill us, either, and he did some good things out there.

You’re right, such a satisfying win. We needed one of the three tough ones to make this a good road trip, and we got it on the first try.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I love watching Brandon on a mismatch

There was a play in the 3rd or 4th ( I can’t really remember who it was against or exactly where in the game it was) where Brandon was dribbling at the free throw line and the defender was still backing off of him afraid he was going to get by. That has to be embarrassing later in film session.

It’s super duper from where I sit.

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Dec 1, 2008 10:15 AM PST reply actions  

I thought we would hit the 50 win mark before the start of the season.

My prediction spread was 48 – 52.

I too now believe that I undershot the final talley. This team seems to have made a significant step forward on the learning curve. They appear to be doing what McMillan expects out of them, putting forth good effort while making few mistakes. The only thing “holding them back” has been, in my opinion, integrating 3 new players (all rookies), one of whom is also trying to shake off the rust of not playing basketball for over a year.

Just when I think my excitement level over this team can’t get any higher, they go out and blow me away. That’s what the past three games were for me – a series of repeated giddiness attacks that has me addicted to wanting to watch them every minute of the day.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 1, 2008 10:39 AM PST reply actions  

That would have been remarkable.
I thought we would hit the 50 win mark before the start of the season.

What would our win total be after the start of the season? Just being an intelligent-donkey. :p

I may have been off with my 45 win prediction as well. If we go 5-0 on this road trip, I will officially recant.

Poor grammar is poor communication.
Poor communication causes misunderstanding.
Misunderstanding causes fighting.
Fighting causes war.
War causes death.
Therefore, your poor grammar may just kill us all.

(One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season)

by T Darkstar on Dec 1, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

That interpretation did occur to me.

If you can pull it off, it does give you a bit of an advantage – don’t you think.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 1, 2008 3:15 PM PST up reply actions  

We both predicted 55-27

      and here’s the team exceding our expectations.
This is the way it worked in 76-77. I know a lot of you
weren’t alive, but we had a very young team with
some new additions and a great defensive & team
oriented pivot. The championship club had the right
mix of young veterans who sublimated their stats
to Dr. Jack’s prescription for success.
     Think about some of the similarities to this young
talented group. Our club believes in each other and has
bought into Sarge’s vision of playing hard for 48 minutes.
It dosen’t always happen and sometimes guys go through
slumps (Smooth), but everybody is on the same page and the
Blazers still have to integrate 3M into the mix. I predicted
this would be Martell’ s breakout year, so the development
of Batum is such a pleasant surprise. Having played with
stat stuffers before, I can tell you that the importance of
guys playing unselfish is so KEY ! Just think, GO and the
guys still have plenty of improvement coming in the next
few month’s. See – “What if ?” post.
     
     COINCAST SUCKS !!!!!!!! GO BLAZERS !!!!!!!

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Dec 1, 2008 11:21 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah

A young team clicked earlier than anyone expected, hit some magic, and went all the way.

It could happen. I won’t say I expect it, but the talent is there, the right mindset is there, the coaching is there. I still think we’ll do what young teams do, and get crunched by someone like the Spurs who have been winning so long they can do it in their sleep, or by someone like the L@kers who, painful as it is to say, appear to have hit on the right combinations, chemistry, and a surplus of talent, and look to be simply in their year to win it all. But it could happen.

I think integrating Martell may cost us a few wins, but if he comes back strong (as I also expect), we’ll be even better for it come the playoffs.

Stay healthy. Stay healthy. Stay healthy.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I watched in 76-77

I was in High School, and see some eerie things between both teams that are very similar.

There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)

My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons

by johnv59 on Dec 1, 2008 6:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I was a junior at Beaverton High in 76-77 and I agree completely.

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
It is Official! LMA is BACK!!!
39:33 Mins 11-19 FGs 5-5 FTs +23 3 Off 4 Rebs 2 Stl 1 Blk 27 Points! - LMA vs Det 11-30-08

by LaMarvelous on Dec 1, 2008 9:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I was a senior

at Klamath Union in KFalls. It was a wonderful graduation present…

There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)

My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons

by johnv59 on Dec 1, 2008 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

best/unique mascot in Oregon high school sports

The Mighty Pelican… his mouth can hold more than his belly-can.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 1, 2008 11:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Cheer

“Go, go go – yes we Peli-Can”. Seriouslyl.

There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)

My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons

by johnv59 on Dec 2, 2008 5:56 PM PST up reply actions  

heck - you are almost as old as me

In 1976 I got married in Los Angeles, and immediately moved to Corvallis. We didn’t get enough of the games down there to really get an idea.

I played lots and lots of gigs – this was the only time period in my life that I was able to support myself as a musician. (We were hungry.)

I didn’t see much of the 1976/1977 team as it was happening – I had to catch up with it later, thanks to various initiatives from Blazer Broadcasting. – Non-Elgin.

He who life can no longer surprise raises his eyes, beholds a planet unknown. - Peter Gabriel

by 22baylor on Dec 2, 2008 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

You are correct!

Thanks jscot for your analysis. Great post. You are so right about the health of the team.
It is KEY! Please KP don’t change a thing just yet! Go Blazers!

by Lu on Dec 1, 2008 1:27 PM PST reply actions  

I think there will be a move

But give me another month of good play and I’m all over the “better than advertised” part. So far they have been FAR better than advertised.

—Dave

by Dave on Dec 1, 2008 1:32 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I'm with you.

Very happy they’re playing so well, but not convinced this is going to continue the rest of the season. Whatever happens, I want them to beat Boston handily. Then, I still won’t know anything, but won’t care.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Dec 1, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Really?

You think the move will come in-season?

I’ve always thought that was possible, but never thought it was probable. Any particular reason you think it is likely to be during the season? Is it just Channing’s cap hold?

If IDEC isn’t moved, we’ll just renounce the rights. The likelihood of that happening with Channing appears to be increasing to me. Doesn’t mean we won’t re-sign him for cheap if possible, but he hasn’t showed enough value to make it worth messing up our summer plans. So I don’t see the cap hold as a big reason for a trade, nor Channing having enough trade value to bring back anything.

The other reason for a trade is to alleviate minutes crunch, but I’m glad we didn’t do that at SF before the exhibition season….

I see a move of some sort on draft day or over the summer, but in-season will surprise me.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless we really turn into the surprising 1990 Blazers...

(For lack of a better example)

… I think KP is strongly planning to make a midseason move. I don’t think he plans to redesign the whole team or anything. But I think he has too many valuable pieces (some of whom simply won’t get playing time, and whose value will plummet post-deadline) to simply sit on them.

The only reason he’ll skip the midseason trade cycle is if he’s convinced he can use the extra cap space to create a (likely draft-day) trade over the summer for whichever player he really desires. Especially if that player isn’t yet available in midseason.

All IMO of course.

by Timmay! on Dec 1, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

the minutes

will be a problem for the players but not the team….So when it becomes a problem for the team is when they could consider making moves….It most likely won’t be because they have lost faith in a player, but realize the harm it does to not only sit good players, but reduce minutes to the ones playing…this is usually tough for young players that think they should play more…..It breaks their confidence and also messes up their timing …….there are some odd men out on this team and only injuries will help the log jam…….unless a select deal comes through (a legit 2 for 1) the Blazers could be forced to trade away some log jam players for future draft picks….this being more of a players choice than a management one…….so a valued player or 2 may have to go and I would not be surprised if it was sooner than later…..all I can say is ..you gotta keep Batum, he is the 3 of the future and shouldn’t lose his minutes in the present…….

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 1, 2008 5:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Its OK till the money runs out

these guys are climbing the salary ladder at the same time in a sense…

that is what will break the group up eventually…but in the ensuing years..why bother changing…

guys need to feel a part of things — and that their work is valued — with enough recognition that the rest of the league would be willing to pay them later as needed..if things feel equitable and the team is winning…alot will be forgiven..and micro comparisons won’t be made…

playoff experience builds a players future value wherever they play..

by LetsBlaze on Dec 1, 2008 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think there's pressure to move anybody in-season

but the more I see the more I think that such a move is likely. We have players we depend on and players that are just nice for us. We also have RLEC. What we do with the latter all depends on who comes available when. There’s no point to waiting until summer if the player we want is offered to us now.

—Dave

by Dave on Dec 1, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh sure...

… say that same thing I say, but more efficiently. I see how it is.

Also, my dog thinks your cat is snack-sized.

by Timmay! on Dec 1, 2008 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

They could also try to turn RLEC into a one-year rent for a player that expires in 2010

I discussed that with Ben a bit in “The Problem with RLEC”. This year there are quite a number of big expiring contracts flying around, albeit Raef’s situation is unique with the insurance likely paying a lot of his salary already this year. It would be nail biting for the fans to extend everything by a year, but if KP feels he gets better offers or free agents in 2010 (definitely more selection than in 2009 even if we exclude the max stars) it might be worth it. Would be interesting to hear what a cap expert (Storyteller?) would say about that.

by Norsktroll on Dec 1, 2008 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Only problem is

We have to extend LMA and Roy that year, and we cannot sign a free agent and then go over the cap to resign them. So it’s 2009 or it. However, if a team feels like their player is going to leave them no matter what in 2010 they may trade him to us in 2009, so they get something out of it.

Come Out, Come Down, Face Out, Be Gone
Break down, build up again
Here she comes with a hand to lend
Get out of bed just to dive into the night
Torn lips and I feel uptight
Come out, Come down
Fade out,
Be Gone
WORD UP. STAY. FRESCO.

by Dheepan on Dec 1, 2008 5:18 PM PST up reply actions  

His point is

that an expiring contract NEXT year, while not letting us get a free agent, would be a very valuable trading chip when the entire rest of the world is trying to dump salary….

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 3:29 AM PST up reply actions  

"and we cannot sign a free agent and then go over the cap to resign them."

My understanding is that you sign the FA first, while you are under the cap, then you can resign your own players even if it takes you over the cap. If you resign your players first and eat up that cap, you can’t go over to sign an FA, so that’s why it has to be 2009 or nothing.

by raoulduke on Dec 2, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Nope

Your free agents have a cap hold which is like three times their current salary just so you can’t play those kinds of games.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

True - but the cap holds in 2009 are the ones

that can be disposed of for a reasonable price. It’s Roy and LA in 2010 that would be the killer. That’s why the team has to sign the FA in ’09 rather than ’10.

Right?

by raoulduke on Dec 2, 2008 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Right

I don’t know the rules on some of this stuff.

But I actually think the idea of trading for a 2010 EC is unnecessary, because it’s only value would be in a trade during the 09-10 season, and I think we can make that trade anyway.

This summer, we want to sign extensions for Brandon, LMA, and probably Sergio. Lock people up before they become UFA. That will hit our cap space starting in 2010-11, but should not do so for the 09-10 season. So I think that means that if we don’t trade RLEC this year, and don’t burn our cap space this summer, we will still have cap space for a trade during next season as well.

If that’s the case, then we will be positioned to A) take a team’s salary dump next year or B) pick up a veteran to help our stretch drive next year, without worrying about cap considerations.

If I’m right, there’s no rush to using the cap space, hold it until we can actually get something we want. And there’s no reason to trade RLEC for 2010EC.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 3, 2008 1:06 AM PST up reply actions  

You're right about everything

but the challenge for KP is predicting if there will be something “we want” even more that will become available later on than some “we want” that is available right now when he is evaluating offers this year.

Let’s say he gets an offer mediocre offer in January. I don’t have the creativity to guess what that is at this moment, but lets say it’s good but not great. Under your scenario it might be something “we want” and KP should pass on it and keep waiting. Then flashforward a year and nothing better has come along and KP is forced to do take a worse offer at that point—that’s a possiblity.

It comes down to KP playing chess in his mind, thinking 25 moves ahead, and being able to recognize whether deals that are on the table for him should be executed or not based on what else is going to be available in the future. But I agree with you on the timing issue—KP’s big move could come tomorrow or in February 2010, but it doesn’t really matter as long as it’s the right move for the guy “we want”.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 3, 2008 2:44 AM PST up reply actions  

What you're saying is true

“The perfect is the enemy of the good.” A statement that’s been around a long time, and someone around here quoted it recently.

KP won’t wait for “the perfect” unless he knows it is happening. Like, if in his mind Hedo is perfect (I don’t think he is, but just supposing KP does), he’s about 90% sure Hedo is going to be available, and they know whether or not Hedo is the kind of guy who would want to come here and would fit in. Then, you wait for “perfect”.

But most of the “perfect” scenarios would be very uncertain. So if a “good” comes along that you are sure is a “good”, you take it.

But I don’t think we jump for a mediocre or “might be good” this year, or even this summer. At worst, we can always take ECHC (Eddy Curry Horrible Contract) off of NY’s hands and get a future first round pick for our trouble. That is about 99% certain to be available to us mid-season next year.

So KP can afford to wait for something that he is certain will improve us. It doesn’t have to be a superstar, but it has to be something he’s really sure will help.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 3, 2008 3:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, that makes sense, Dave

Obviously, if the player we want comes available, we jump.

I just don’t think it is that likely in-season. It happens, of course.

The thing is, “the player we want” is getting to be a very short list as the guys we have up their games. But if LeBron is offered, I suppose even a mid-season trade would be worth it.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 3:28 AM PST up reply actions  

I think Paul Allen wants to play with all that cap space money

And I think that’s why Raef will not be traded.

It’s an 82 game season and pretty much everyone expects the Blazers to make the playoffs. You need a deep team to be successful playing all those games.

The only way I see Raef being traded is along the lines of Dave’s last sentence below. Unless KP is offered a no-brainer trade that will significantly improve the Blazers by the trade deadline, I don’t think KP makes a move until the summer.

by tominhawaii on Dec 1, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

KP could look for picks

I agree that KP could get creative and trade RLEC for a contract that expires in 2010. He may be able to get a really good deal at next year’s deadline or be able to package an expiring contract with young players for one of the superstars who will be a FA that summer. Plus he could probably earn a draft pick or two for saving some team 15-30mil. It seems like no ones talking about this but I’d bet KP is looking into it.

by tylerdurden on Dec 1, 2008 4:04 PM PST reply actions  

I'm hoping there is no trade this season.....

We haev 4 rookies on this roster, 3 of whom are playing key minutes. I really hope KP just lets this tream grow on its own. I think it;s great that Nate has a 10 player rotation. Everyone is getting minutes, and Nate has the flexibility to ride the hot hand. He also can deal with players going through slumps because of the quality and depth of the roster.

This team is playing like a veteran team. Bringing in a “veteran presence” won’t necessarily help.

by antediluvian on Dec 1, 2008 4:17 PM PST reply actions  

yeah he'd prolly just be a smartass in the lockerroom anyway, snapping people with his towel

"I would be in favor of trading LMA and Oden for a reliable starting PF at this point."

MT Suit, 11/25/08

by MT Suit on Dec 1, 2008 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

great stuff

and for some reason it reminds me of a Canzano show where he said mgmt. was over selling the Blazers…. it’s the opposite now!

There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)

My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons

by johnv59 on Dec 1, 2008 6:46 PM PST reply actions  

Can-nozzle almost always says stuff like that, tries to make himself sound authoritative...

and then as soon as it becomes obvious that he was dead wrong makes lame excuse and weasles out of it.

I totally hate his kangaroo court bits (Guilty or Not Guilty) they make me nauseous and so I have to turn it off.

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
It is Official! LMA is BACK!!!
39:33 Mins 11-19 FGs 5-5 FTs +23 3 Off 4 Rebs 2 Stl 1 Blk 27 Points! - LMA vs Det 11-30-08

by LaMarvelous on Dec 1, 2008 9:28 PM PST up reply actions  

If the Yahoo rumor was true

then KP is keeping faith with Travis by trying to get him traded back near home. If it’s true then KP won’t stop until he takes care of Trout. Memphis, NO, Atlanta are all likely trade partners for Trout. If Sergio really did request a trade you can bet your butt he’s on the way out the door. That’s two; anyone want to try for three? How bout Fry; his contract is coming up. Try for four? RLEC. OK how about Ike, Shavlik or the three 2nd rounders, not to mention next year’s 1st round pick. Does anyone really still believe we can keep hoarding players like a greedy little/big kid? Someone’s gotta go, but who?

by oregonslee on Dec 1, 2008 6:58 PM PST reply actions  

Umm, was this a trade thread?

I thought it was all about how good we already are…

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
It is Official! LMA is BACK!!!
39:33 Mins 11-19 FGs 5-5 FTs +23 3 Off 4 Rebs 2 Stl 1 Blk 27 Points! - LMA vs Det 11-30-08

by LaMarvelous on Dec 1, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

Oh well.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 3:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Did I forget to mention

Steve and Joel. Now those are two really fine trade pieces and any team in the look would raise their eyebrows to hear they were available. We CAN consolidate and we WILL in due time.

by oregonslee on Dec 1, 2008 7:01 PM PST reply actions  

very nice piece taking stock after 18 games

no, i didnt expect them to be this good this soon. it almost makes me nervous insofar as ideally one hopes the team will get hot, “find themselves” late in the season, heading into the playoffs.

ignacio

by ignacio on Dec 1, 2008 11:05 PM PST reply actions  

How to Make an Already Good Team Better.

As the team gels, I agree with Dave’s take that there’ll be a move. In part, because when Webster comes back, some player capable of playing on the second team somewhere else will be on the third team here, and in part because we can’t keep Bayless on the third team forever, and Sergio seems to have made it clear that he’s not going to want to stay around if he can’t get minutes at PG – and playing Bayless would take those away. So, just to clear up this logjam we’ll need to move two players. Then, of course, KP’s made it pretty clear that he is focussed on getting value for Raef’s contract, so in a practical sense, we have three pieces to look at. Then, we’ll have a 4th given that if we take back a player, not a draft pick, then we’re going we’ll simply create the same logjam at the position we’ve traded for that we tried to solve in the first place. So, I imagine, the ideal scenerio involves Raef and three current players for one (plus maybe some insurance pieces). Or, perhaps for draft choices, if we can’t really find the PG we want that makes it worthwhile.

In the meantime, we’re stocked, locked and loaded. Consider that the real problem is that we may very well have a 50+ win team as we sit, and that since it’s so young, we could do nothing and win even more next year. So, KP’s headache is how to make an already good team even better.

by Eben Calder on Dec 2, 2008 5:27 AM PST reply actions  

It's going to be tough to land a good PG with RLEC

First, it will be hard getting rid of RLEC and 3 other pieces (Sergio, Outlaw and Blake/Channing/Ike/whoever) and getting a good point guard in return because you’ll have to take a veteran who makes big money (Kidd, Nash, Bibby) in order to get the money close without having to take a bunch of overpaid “insurance pieces”. I’m not that worried about getting a short-timer who can help us win now and groom Bayless as the future PG. Sure, Bayless hasn’t proven anything yet, but that’s a risk you have to take in order to clear space and get a championship-contention level PG this season. You can always stockpile other young PGs through the draft in case Bayless doesn’t cut it.

If you don’t go with a vet, it’s hard to pry younger PGs away from other teams. Calderon… Harris… I won’t even mention Paul and D. Will. Those teams will never give up their future PG for RLEC and change no matter how bad the economy is.

Hinrich is like the happy medium. His contract is the right size, he’s still somewhat young, and he’s completely available. The downside with Kirk is that there’s no upside. You know what you are getting and it’s not as sexy as the other guys mentioned above. Low risk, low reward with Hinrich. I’d call that the backup plan.

Then there are the young, cheap and available PGs. These include Conley, Felton and probably a few others. The problem with these, as I mentioned above, is that you can’t unload RLEC and 3 other players and take these guys in return without adding on overpaid “insurance pieces” to make the money match. The other problem with these guys are that they’re basically Bayless Plus. Still young and unproven (though more proven than Bayless). High risk, and potentially high reward. But how high is their ceiling? Hinrich level? Harris/Calderon level? It’s hard to tell exactly.

I think the two most sensible choices are either Nash/Kidd/Bibby or Hinrich. Hinrich does not excite me at all. But at least you can still be grooming Bayless and other draft picks with you have a steady hand for the next few years. Does Hinrich lead the Blazers to a title next year? I doubt it. That’s the scrary part about him; you’re still relying on Bayless or somebody else to step up soon.

Nash/Kidd/Bibby seems to offer the same safety net as Hinrich with more immediate upside. You still have to groom your future PG, but at least you get All-Star caliber production right now. Of course, you have to pry them away from their current teams, which may or may not be easy. And you might have to worry more about how they mesh with the young guys (the rest of the team). But they are proven professionals and, if any thing, could add some good perspective to the clubhouse.

I just don’t see how Phoenix is ready to trade Nash. Hopefully Shaq or Amare get hurt soon and their season goes downhill and they realize that Nash want to go to New York in two years, so they might as get save some money and start rebuilding. I don’t think Steve Kerr is a stubborn guy, but that may be a hard trigger for him to pull.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 2, 2008 6:39 AM PST up reply actions  

My Blazer fanhood

doesn’t actually extend to hoping guys get hurt.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 7:31 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Ok, that's not what I really meant..

If coincidentally certain players got hurt this year on certain teams, it may benefit us.

That was a poor choice of words on my part, but it was the easiest way to get the point across. I don’t want them to get hurt to help us, but if they do, it may help us.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 2, 2008 7:50 AM PST up reply actions  

But I still see it as a longshot that PHX will actually try to unload Nash this season

They weren’t looking to bad and whooped us a couple times last time I checked.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 2, 2008 7:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Very longshot

They are still a legit playoff team, and with those three guys, who knows what can happen in a seven game series?

They trade Nash, they are starting over.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 8:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't have one

I don’t know that we’ll get a PG upgrade, and I don’t know that we need one.

People think I’m crazy, but I still think we might grab Iverson for two years as a FA this summer at about $10 million a year.

But we might just let Paul Allen save money for a year and do nothing with RLEC and the cap space. If this team keeps improving….

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 2, 2008 8:32 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree that socking the savings away and even dabbling with an AI is an option,

but part of the point of the RLEC trade could be to consolidate our assets. Right now we have more talent on roster than playing time available. That could make an RLEC trade that much more enticing to certain teams. They get the money savings and cap relief and also get some cheap young talent that they can give playing time without being embarrassed.

If we save the money and pick up free agent, we’re still going to have an issue with playing time. We can get rid of guys at the end of this season who aren’t on contract next year, but then we don’t get anything in return for them. Who knows, that might be the best course of action. Trade are great, but so hard to pull off.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 2, 2008 8:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Your Trades Aren't Crazy

Er, make that crazier than everyone else’s. I’m thinking of the Stephon Marbury trade which was the absolute.

by oregonslee on Dec 2, 2008 8:55 AM PST reply actions  

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