The Quality Pie Sked: Update #1
by QualityPie on Nov 9, 2008 7:36 PM PST
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PrintBack when the schedule first came out, I divvied it up into several Chunks, picking out stretches of games that seemed to have a pattern to them.
Well, the first chunk has just come to an end, so it's time for the first Chunk review, where I note the performance of that section and identify the next Chunk.
Oct. 28 - @L[xxx]rs [TNT] : Severe LOSS
31 - Spoors [ESPN] : Decent WINNov. 1 - @PHX : Pretty bad LOSS
5 - @Utah : LOSS that could've been a win
6 - Houston [TNT] : Close exhilarating WIN
8 - Minny : WIN
Record for the Chunk: 3-3 (0-3 away, 3-0 at home)
Record overall: 3-3
Record of the teams that beat us: 14-3 (11-3 outside of our games, 11-6 if we had won those)
Record of the teams we beat: 6-11 (6-8 outside of our games, 9-8 if we had lost those)
I'm not concerned with a game-by-game breakdown, so I'm not going there; suffice to say, hunt down Dave & Ben's post-game reviews for that. But I do want to note the overall play of the team, AND note the change in the team's play between the start of the Chunk and the end of it.
First, this: Three times, we played a great team (top 5 playoff seed last year, top-3 conference record right now) in THEIR BUILDING, and got smoked each time. But the extent of our smoking got milder with each successive occurrence. Conclusions: We're not up there with the big boys, but we're learning the art of hanging with them, getting closer to playing as their equal with each try. (Either that, or the opponents were successively weaker, that L.A. is superior to Phoenix, who in turn are better than the Jazz. I could see that. But I don't.)
The message sent by the other three games (trend: We Won Our Home Games, against a variety of three opponents) depends partly on what you make of San Antonio circa Autumn 2008. Me? I think they're done. Maybe they come back, but right now, they are a Bad Team. I'm not taking too much from our win over them, except to put it in the category of "game we should have won, and we did." In other words, not much different from the last home game against Minnesota. But that's just my suspicion; best idea would be to not know what that win says about us, other than our resiliency from a tough L[xxx]rs loss .
And by the way, that is a HUGE deal. Combined with our Houston rebound from the Suns/Jazz losses (and our good first three quarters at Utah after the tough Suns loss), we seem to have great resiliency, in how we bounce back from tough losses. Winning streaks are nice; the lack of losing streaks is even nicer. If this bounce-back-from-a-loss character gets confirmed, it's gonna be a GOOD season. At the end of the season, let's try to remember this, and look back and take note of what our longest losing streak this year ends up as, and what our record after losses is (so far, we're 2-1, but the one loss saw us open the game just fine; we just couldn't finish).
But the other two home wins (the games that close this Chunk) show a wonderful thing, winning home games the way true contenders do. For one, we squeezed out a win in a tossup against a REALLY good team, and for the other, we had an off night, teased a mediocre team into thinking it could hang with us (at least for one night) before winning ugly; I'm especially proud of this analysis, which got totally buried because I posted it at halftime on the first-half thread, not realizing that the second-half thread was up and running and already going 68 posts deep. But I urge you: READ THAT POST. Coming from the at-the-half context, I think those observations are huge.
End result: We started the Chunk as total pretenders, choking up in the face of Big-Game-Ness, and ended it beating two teams at home exactly the way we're used to getting beat.
OVERALL LEVEL CHECK: Contender, but sub-power; comparable to where the Wizards and Nuggets have been on average the past few years.
PROGRESS CHECK: Fantastic (in my opinion)
---------------
THE LOOK FORWARD:
10 - @Magic
12 - @Miami
14 - @ N.O.
15 - @Minny
18 - @GS
19 - Bulls [ESPN]
21 - @Sac
22 - @PHX
Record of opponents as of right now: 24-26
Here comes the road. Oden will return sometime during this stretch. The story will be three questions:
1) Did we learn to win on the road? (Particular games: All but Bulls)
2) How did we do in games that are harder than beating 1-win teams (Spoors, TimberPuppies) at home, but not as hard as visiting the three strongest teams in the conference as of right now (recent history aside)? We got ONE game in this first 6-game chunk in this category, and we won it - but barely, and at home. Coming up, we get more games against teams better than Minnie/Sandy Auntie, but not as good as La-La, Utah, Phoenix, and Houston. Also, teams maybe about as good as the Spoors and TimberPuppies, but in THEIR building instead of ours. (Particular games: Bulls, Miami Lukewarmth, Pyrite State Worriers, Sac O' Mentos.) That's a level of play we fall somewhere in; now's the time to find out if we're at the bottom, middle, or top. Or: Can we beat teams that are about as good as us? (We're 1-for-1 on that so far.)
3) How did we manage Oden's return? (Particular games: Whichever ones he plays in.)Of course, the far end of the window for his likely return is just after this Chunk ends, so he may not come back. But if so, then THAT will be part of the way this Chunk ends up being defined: He might've come back, but he didn't. So return or not, the issue will define this Chunk.
Additional question of interest, but more as a stand-alone event than part of the overall nature of this Chunk: Do we play better in our November 22 return to Phoenix (especially if we have Oden this time, which we should)?
Next post-Chunk installment: Sunday, November 23, two weeks from tonight.
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Great post, rec'd.
It should be fun to revisit this. This could be the most telling chunk of our season, especially if we do get a chance to see what we are gonna look like with the big man back.
(also, Its obviously a typo, because you say so like three times in your post, but you accidentally said Houston was a LOSS.)
Arrrrrrggghhh . . . CORRECTED.
Just said it the once, but that once was the one that counted.
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Also rec'd....because I looooooove Chunky posts
Marc Gasol´s formula.
Asked about his way to succeed, Marc Gasol said: "If the coach asks me for banging my own head 200 times, I do it. Even more, I do it 500 times."
--translated by Amlmart
by prezofdeath on Nov 9, 2008 9:29 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Rec'd for the pic.
I also thought of Chunky soup!
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Nov 9, 2008 10:44 PM PST up reply actions
Wow. Lotta love for "Chunk".
SLOTH
LOVE
CHUNK!
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Loved the post in the pre-season, keep it up
Wow, I didn’t realize that we’d have 4 games in 5 days at the end of this chunk (18,19,21,22.) If the Suns are smart on the 22nd, they’ll run, run, run and run some more on us. We’ll probably be gassed.
I also rec'd it
I was thinking about doing an analysis of the upcoming road trip, but this is much better than what I would have done. Bravo.
I think we can win a lot of the games that are coming up. There will be some real tests and we’ll see how the team can hang with competition that is a notch or so above us. @Orl and @GS will be good measuring sticks. @NO is the only game I think we have basically no chance at winning and @Phx is slightly more winnable but the team will be very tired by that point.
10 – @Magic
12 – @Miami Win
14 – @ N.O. Loss
15 – @Minny
18 – @GS
19 – Bulls [ESPN]
21 – @Sac
22 – @PHX
WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat
my bad
I pressed tab out of habit, but remembering that tab doesn’t tab over in here, I pressed the space bar, which apparently posted my incomplete message.
To finish:
10 – @Magic
12 – @Miami (Win)
14 – @ N.O. (Loss)
15 – @Minny (Win)
18 – @GS
19 – Bulls (Win)
21 – @Sac (Win)
22 – @PHX (Loss)
Orlando and GS are too close to call, but if I had to pick I’d say we lose those. However, if we win those, I think that will say a lot about the team.
WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat
Y'know, I'm tempted to address that in the post.
I suddenly feel like forecasting an expected record for these 8 games, and say if we do better than that,
this Chunk will be a success, and if our record is worse, it’s a failure.
But I have a feeling I’d end up regretting drawing any kind of line between success/failure for this stretch.
Tempting, though.
(4-4)
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
One thing I meant to include, but forgot:
As of now, there are four other teams in the West unbeaten at home:
The L[xxx]rs, Utah (okay so far), Memphis (huh?), and Sac (wha—?!).
And we’re not even going to get a CHANCE at our first home loss until next Wednesday.
So let’s see who’s still standing for unbeaten home records come the Bulls game on the 19th.
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Hey.
The Blazers could win more than 4 if they overachieve.
Here’s a conversation starter: do you think the Blazers are overachieving or underachieving? Why or why not?
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Nov 9, 2008 10:47 PM PST reply actions
Both
Over-achievers even though their defense is suspect, they have a .500 record.
Under-achievers because their defensive is supect, and therefor have a .500 record.
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
I think we're normalwhelmingchieving
Marc Gasol´s formula.
Asked about his way to succeed, Marc Gasol said: "If the coach asks me for banging my own head 200 times, I do it. Even more, I do it 500 times."
--translated by Amlmart
Taking into account the unexpectedly sad state of San Antonio . . .
. . . (keep in mind, their only win is an overtime squeaker AT HOME, against MEMPHIS),
I’d say that 2-3 is totally par for the course, with the Houston game being the tipping point.
That is, aside from the Rockets game, I am exactly whelmed (neither under nor over) with their performance across 5 games.
So that one game (not just that they won it, but HOW) tips this Chunk to better-than-expected.
In fact, let’s not forget that Houston is a top-5 team last season without Yao or Artest,
and we caught them in a stretch when they were at full strength (no injured Yao OR T-Mac)
and rolling, having only lost to the freaking World Champion Celtics.
(They also lost tonight – AT the L[xxx]rs, and as badly as we did.)
And the way Artest defended Roy, you can see how much more challenging they are ow than last year.
So, in retrospect, we had no right winning that game.
The “right record” for us is truly 2-4 (which is saying that beating the Spoors is a “should”,
so you know I’m not being restrained in my expectations).
That one game makes us overachievers.
Going Greg- and MarWeb-less against a full-strength Rockets team when they’re rolling
should mean a definitive loss, no matter whose house it was.
“Us – two starters” vs “Houston with Yao, T-Mac AND Artest” should be a solid Rockets win.
In fact, now that I think of it that way, even if we had lost it narrowly (as in, either Roy shot doesn’t go in),
I’d still peg us as overachievers: Just right over 5 games, plus an overachieving 6th game, even in a close loss.
AND WE WON.
Overachievers.
Just like I expect them to be.
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
I put the line a 4-4 because . . .
. . . if they go 4-4, I’ll be neither happy nor disappointed.
I’d be happy with 5-3 (I assume that’d be losing to New Orleans and Phoenix, and going 5-1 among the rest).
And darn right I’d be disappointed with 3-5.
So when I say 4-4, that’s my mark for an average performance in this next Chunk,
not a GOOD performance (nor a bad one, though).
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Wow
I’d be happy with 3-5 at this point in our season. I’d be a little disappointed with 2-6, but ok with it.
We have to get healthy, and gel together. That is going to take some time. Wins in Florida will be very, very difficult right now. So will a win at GS. If we win in NO or Phoenix, it would be a complete steal at this point. Even if Oden is back, it will be just barely.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
It's an overachieving record with underachieving play
There’s potential there. The Blazers could be a 50+ win team when their play catches up. Or the Blazers record fall in line with their play. I have no idea what kind of team we have.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
We don't have our full team yet
and the players we do have haven’t really had that much chance to be together yet. All we need to do is survive, even if we do it by playing poorly and stealing wins.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
Rec'd
Now THAT’s some QualityPie.
Love the analysis..consider yourself rec’d.
I too am happy with where we’re at now, and with our resiliency, as you’ve pointed out. I think we’re seeing signs of growth, led by our ‘leaders’ BRoy and Aldridge.
You can pick your friends, and you can pick your nose, but you can't pick your friend's nose.
-- Unknown
Great post
I’ll settle for 5-3 on this stint, but I’d much prefer 7-1, of course.
Realistically, it could be 4-4.
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
I like how you looked at this.
My concern, looking at that schedule, is that we didn’t beat any of the teams clearly and cleanly. You’re point that we seem to progressively be doing better is hopeful.
We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.
Don't Forget
That Miami game is on ESPN also, on the 12th.
This is legit analysis. I think 4-4 is about right for what we’ll do. I can see us losing 4 games, I just don’t know what they are.
It wasn't when I drew up these divisions.
I guess I should update it.
More of a personal note-to-self for when to watch.
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Just a schedule note
About the 2 back to backs,Minny will have been on vacation since Tuesday and CHI will be at the Lackers the nite before
by southern oregon on Nov 10, 2008 10:42 AM PST reply actions
What the heck is it with all the back to back games?
This has been one of the most brutal opening schedules I’ve ever seen. Is this some sort of ritual hazing by David Stern for the young upstart team? Unless this was a misguided effort to whore out Oden by D.Stern (in which case the joke is on him), I’m just baffled at the schedule.
My 4-4 expectation kinda gives . . .
. . . losses to N.O & Phoenix, beating Minnie, and going 3-2 in the rest of the games:
Orlando, Miami, G.S., Bulls, and Sac.
No assumptions abut which two would be the losses, although Orlando and Miami would be a safe scenario.
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." - Ernest Hemingway
Big is a small word for that win
by southern oregon on Nov 10, 2008 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, Mr. Heat Ambassador
Any updates on the team? Is Marion going to play Wednesday?
Giving [Batum] the freedom to go for steals is going to be like giving a redneck six boxes of ammo and a quarter mile of empty Bud cans. - Dave
HUGE win
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
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