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Around SBN: SB Nation NBA Power Rankings for Week 2

So Far, So Good

Taking a little Sunday afternoon breather I thought it might be good to take stock of how things are going so far, roughly about 7.3% of the way into the season.  (Funny how it's only been six games but with all of the changes and ups and downs it feels like ages ago when the season started.)

The most obvious thing to be happy about if you're a Blazer fan is the 3-3 record right now.  We've passed one stage of the early-season test--the elite opponent parade--and now we pass into the "mighty hard road trip" phase.  Emerging from murderer's row with a .500 record is a fantastic start.  If you want to look at tangible reasons this team could make the playoffs, those couple of extra wins early stand among the best.  Playoff teams usually manage more wins than they're entitled to and you never know what the race may come down to.

The most laudable facet of the team game so far has been the uptick in rebounding compared to last season.  So far the Blazers are staying even on the defensive boards and making hay on the offensive glass.  That makes the game easier.

The early play of Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge also inspires confidence.  Neither one has gotten off to a steady start, both have better play to reveal, but Brandon is right there at 20 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds per game while Lamarcus stands at 19 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2 blocks.  This team knows its mainstays and they will provide continuity.

The Blazers also have reason for excitement in the early play of Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum.  Rudy is shooting 46% overall and 42% from the three-point arc for his 14 points per game.  Batum's statistics are decent (6 points and 2.5 rebounds in 16.5 minutes) but more significant is the hope that the Blazers have finally found an adequate defending, rebounding, and running small forward.  Both Nic and Rudy change the energy of the game--Rudy offensively, Nicolas defensively, both in transition--when they are in.  You can see the difference.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive treatise on the players, so even though more could be mentioned we're going to leave the general positives there and move to the concerns so far.

The first concern is that even though the record stands at 3-3, there have been clear differences between the wins and losses.  Simply put:  the losses have all been sustainable and repeatable whereas the wins haven't.  We've lost games like you would expect Portland to lose them...getting beaten down the stretch by experienced teams with more developed (if not better) talent.  That's going to happen in those type of games.  Two of the three wins, on the other hand, happened because of unusual circumstances.  Granted the Blazers put themselves in position to take advantage of last-second plays...that's to their credit and IS repeatable and sustainable.  They played the kind of ball that gave them a chance.  But the wins themselves happened because Michael Finley missed a shot he hits 8 times out of 10 and because Brandon Roy launched a miracle from 30 feet.  Summary:  play the three losses again in exactly the same fashion and they're still losses.  Play the Houston and San Antonio games again in exactly the same fashion and you can flip a coin (at best) as to whether the Blazers come out ahead.  The team is fortunate not to be looking at a 1-5 record right now.  In other words, despite the record, this team hasn't found its winning stride yet nor played the kind of basketball that inspires confidence long-term.  You can't conclude from the record that this is going to be a .500 (or better) team.

The preceding paragraph is reflected somewhat in the Blazers' point differential, which despite the .500 record stands at -5.2.  You have to factor in the small sample size there, but the number tells you that the losses so far have been stronger than the wins.

The most glaring issue from a team perspective has been the defense.  It took a game against the semi-hapless Timberwolves to bring our defensive field goal percentage down below .500.  I don't care what else you do, if you allow that kind of shooting you're going to lose over time.  It's like blowing up a hot air balloon with a big rent in the side.

The Blazers have also looked disjointed through most of the early games, depending on runs to get them through rather than sustaining the flow.  This is not surprising at all.  Consider that the team added three new pieces to the rotation in Oden, Fernandez, and Batum and then immediately took away two pieces in Webster and Oden.  Either of those eventualities would impact continuity.  Combine both and it's surprising the team looks as decent as it does.  But it's still somewhat jarring to expect to see a team on its way to the next step looking like it's tripping over steps you thought were two flights down.  Some have tried to assign blame to individual players--Roy, Outlaw, Sergio, Blake--but the truth is these guys just aren't a unit yet.  One of the side effects of long road trips is bonding on and off the court.  Hopefully that'll happen soon.

If this analysis seems inconclusive or fractured as a whole there's a reason for that:  the team's performance has been the same.  There are some things to be delighted about, others to worry about.  We're like students who have gotten decent grades but you're not quite sure they have the subject matter down.  We're going to find out as we progress into the next unit.  We'll need the next dozen games or so to show us which of these trends are going to continue for the season and which will fall aside.  Hopefully we get to keep more of the delightful than the worrisome.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

1 recs  |  Comment 83 comments

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But Dave

First win: 1 point
Second win: 2 points
Third win: 4 points

In just three more wins, we’ll win by 32 points! Woohoo.

Of course, my theory doesn’t tell us how long it takes to get those three more wins.

by Section323 on Nov 9, 2008 1:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Bwahahaha

Thanks, I enjoyed that. :)

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Since scoreboard don't lie

We win all games at home, and lose all games on the road.

So when we win the 41st games again this season, we will win the 41st game by 2 to the 40th power. Don’t plan to be at the Rose Garden that night, as the Blazers nets will catch fire and the floor will glow with heat. There could be structural damage with all that scoring. Our squad by that time will be equipped with heat resistant unies and non-melt shoes.

Give the points, and take the over.

Both Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez will set NBA career scoring records by the end of the first quarter. Sergio will pass John Stockton as career assist leader with 12:10 in playing time.

There once was a Sea’ Cap’n Nate
Whom with Blazers did negotiate.
The pool, t’was so deep!
"That KP don’t sleep."
Gold medals and rings were his fate.

by LaoTzu on Nov 9, 2008 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This will fix that negative point differential

Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around

by Lizzy Lowblow on Nov 9, 2008 3:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's simple

Our defeat margins should follow a logical mathematical sequence too.

First loss: 20 points
Second loss: 11 points
Third loss: 7 points

While at first glance it might seem like there’s no correlation here, if you look closely you’ll notice that the differential between point margins has one. There’s a 9 point difference between the first two losses and a four point differential between the next two. This means that with each loss, the differential should be halved.

Fourth loss: 5 points
Fifth loss: 4 points

And since there are no fractions of a point, each differential thereafter must be rounded up to one full point.

Sixth loss: 3 points
Seventh loss: 2 points
8th loss: 1 point

By this air tight formula, since we understand that numbers cannot lie and are the universal language of the universe, the Blazers will lose no more than 8 games this season (possibly less) giving them a worst case scenario final record of 74-8 to close the season. :)

by zaruga on Nov 9, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I calculate 9 losses...

I see that the first differential is 9, and the second is 4, but I don’t see how you get a pattern of halving the differential from that… 4 is not half of 9. If anything, it is a pattern of decreasing perfect squares. So the fourth loss would have a differential of 1 (6 points), because that is the next lowest square number, and then following your logic we just count down by one after that until we get to zero (9th loss). Now how do we account for overtime?

by ostateblazer on Nov 9, 2008 3:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I find your calculations to be seditious

This probably means you’re a witch! Even if you do make sense, we should probably burn you at the stake just to be safe. If you’re not a witch, the basketball gods will spare you.

by zaruga on Nov 9, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone under 5' 10" will be drowned

anyone over 5’11" (without shoes) is considered NBA height and immediately a non-roster invitee. Those who do not make the 15-man roster are either hanged (if under 6’6") or drawn and quartered (if over) or, in extreme cases, sent to the D-League. All accusations will be reviewed by a three-saint board consisting of David Stern, David Falk, and David Robinson, representing the Trinity, and guest saint David Hasselhoff, who is similiarly infallible and prone to goodness by his ineffable grace.

Schonely got a raw deal. NO ONE gives Schonely a raw deal.

by OhOhOden on Nov 9, 2008 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Close, Zaruga, but no donut

Thank you for the interesting data, but I think the formula you are using is incorrect.

In fact, the point differential is diminishing at a rate of X squared.

1st loss by 20.
2ne loss by 11. 9 (3×3) better.
3rd loss by 7. 4 (2×2) better.
4th loss by what? The answer is 6. Which is 1 (1×1) better.
5th loss by what? The answer is 6. Which is 0 (0×0) better.
6th loss by … 5. 1 (-1x-1) better.
Then we lose by 1. 4 (-2x-2) better.
Then, of course, the Blazers do not lose again this season.

And, ostateblaser, we account for all overtime’s by Brandon Roy from 30’.

Scoreboard, baby!

There once was a Sea’ Cap’n Nate
Whom with Blazers did negotiate.
The pool, t’was so deep!
"That KP don’t sleep."
Gold medals and rings were his fate.

by LaoTzu on Nov 9, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Curses!

You’ve all uncovered my secret system of making things up! I’ll get you next time!

by zaruga on Nov 9, 2008 5:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Decent Start

But I would be extremely more optimistic if we had won 1 of the 3 road games and Oden would still be healthy and playing at this point. Nevertheless, the team is treading water right now. We are barely winning at home. Nothing more and nothing less.

by Balian on Nov 9, 2008 1:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good record but

we have been very fortunate in all 3 of our wins. We need more post play, seems like most everything we take is outside the paint. At one point (end of 1st half I believe), Minn was outscoring us 20-4 points in the paint. If our jumpers don’t fall, we are screwed. Any solutions/ideas? LMA so far seems somewhat incapable of being a rugged bruiser down low, Priz has no inside game, Channing is a LMA clone and Oden…who knows. Settling for jumpers won’t get us anywhere near 50 wins this season.

by OneTrickPony on Nov 9, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Half Empty Glass Viewpoint

The team is barely winning at home and winless on the road. Lets hope the team could pop its cherry on this upcoming road trip.

by Balian on Nov 9, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

There's definitely been some luck involved

I was at the game last night and couldn’t BELIEVE the Wolves missed those three point blank shots on that late possession. (Actually, I thought Joel might have put his hand thru the hoop to keep Jefferson’s last shot out, but I haven’t seen a replay yet to confirm that!)

In any case, yes: the Blazers are fortunate to be at .500 right now. But considering the Oden/Martell injuries and the integration of two new players (along with the absence of Jack & Jones from last season), I think the guys are doing very well. The most glaring deficiency has been on the boards, and Trout & LMA have stepped up there the last two games. (Joel, of course, battles each and every night.)

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 1:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The glaring deficiency

Has been the amount of points in the paint we are allowing, which I contribute to horrible defense by our point guards, and a lack of Greg Oden.

Can I buy you a fish sandwich?

by silkybrown on Nov 9, 2008 2:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

But I don’t think it’s all on the point guards. I watched the first half last night from behind the Wolves’ basket, and Minnesota was getting to the hoop at will—forwards as well as guards. The help was arriving late, weak, or not at all. And the Wolves were crashing the offensive boards.

Fortunately, things got a little better in the second half, most likely due to a “convincing” halftime talk from the coach. It’ll take that kind of team effort—not just Greg Oden—to plug up the paint.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rebounding has been the biggest strength statistically this year.

We are 5th in offensive rebound rate and 4th in defensive rebound rate so far according to basketball-reference.com. Our deficiency has been our lack of ability to stop the other team from scoring efficiently.

by poster on Nov 9, 2008 3:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's really funny since our rebounding fix was Oden

Nate has adjusted how he’s used Pryz and it’s helped a lot

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't have the numbers

But I’d say those stats reflect determined rebounding in the Blazers’ wins. In the losses—and in the first half last night—the Blazers looked very soft.

But yes, obviously you’re right about the defensive problems. You can’t win consistently when opposing teams are shooting 50% or better.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right on track

We got this. The Blazers are the Barack Obama of the NBA. We’re all going to spend this year nit-picking and worry-worting about why Sergio Rodriguez isn’t connecting with blue collar workers in southern Ohio or tearing our hair out in outrage that the Lakers would dare to suggest Greg Oden has ties to terrorists, and meanwhile LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy’s ground game in Nevada and New Mexico will quietly register enough new offensive rebounds to get us into a good showing in the Electoral Playoffs this year.

by Jumbo on Nov 9, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Superb analysis

By the time the opposition wakes up to what has happened in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado and tries to react, Travis will be tearing into their Southern stronghold (VA, NC, & FL), Greg will swing OH our way, and the Spanish Airmada, French Connection, and Finnish and Brit future allies will have convinced swing voters everywhere that the whole world awaits our arrival. 55 wins.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 10, 2008 1:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A win's a win...

It doesn’t matter if you win with a last-second heave or by 50 points; it counts the same in the standings. Sure, we’d like to blow teams out, but that’s not going to happen in the Western Conference when we’re missing two starters.

I’ve been encouraged that the Blazers are hanging in most of their games while they integrate the new folk in and set rotations. How many people, besides Sophia, thought Batum would make a contribution right away? I think most of us are happy to see that Fernandez’ excellent Olympics has carried over to his play so far.

Point guard still seems unsettled. I don’t like Blake taking more than a few shots a game since that takes shots away from Roy and LMA and who knows where Sergio’s head is?

by torsoheap on Nov 9, 2008 2:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think what Dave means is

that while we win it could of been the other way around. If Roy misses that 30 footer that would be a heart breaker, and Michael Finely just happened to miss so we are lucky there. But saying that Blazers could of been 5-1 is not even close in truth as saying blazers could of been 1-5, or even 0-6. Why I say that? Cuz like Dave pointed out we played against better talent and our losses were not even close to say that if Roy would just made that shot we would win. Our losses are like the above post says are 20, 11, 7. Roy cant hit a 7 pointer. but Roy can miss a 30 footer and Finely can make a 2 pointer on a 10 footer so thats why we are lucky to be 3-3. Anyways it was not really a reply to you just a general post.

by RipCity on Nov 9, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

at least Roy can hit a 5 pointer in less than 2 seconds.

by RipCity on Nov 9, 2008 4:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The balance certainly favors potential losses.

But that doesn’t factor in how the strategy changes near the end of the game dependent on the point differential. If Rudy hits that three in Utah, the game is tied, and a timeout is likely called for the Jazz. As it stands, the miss lead to a long rebound, and a quick two, bringing the Jazz up by five, and the game out of reach, forcing us to foul and pray for the shooters to miss. So I would argue that game was much closer than the final score showed, as is true in a lot of games decided in the final half minute or so.

by zaruga on Nov 9, 2008 5:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In general

the idea is we’re 3-3 and that’s legit and something to celebrate. But if we let the next six games play out the exact same way it’s unlikely we’ll be 3-3 again, rather worse. Part of that will be solved by the strength of schedule, but then again we play some good teams on the road. Mostly the Blazers need to get it together if they want to stay around .500.

Personally, as I stated months ago, I think we could still do well this season even if we went 8-16 to start. The weaker schedule come January (and onward) plus the team gelling together should result in a substantial winning percentage in the new year. Of course by the time that happens everyone will have forgotten I said this (repeatedly) and so everyone will be saying how these are the “real” Blazers and how they’re now going deep into the playoffs because they’ve “turned the corner” and such…plus calling me a raging pessimist for suggesting that the opposition has something to do with it even though I’m also quite positively telling folks not to worry during the early rough schedule and the resulting disjointed play and losses.

—Dave

by Dave on Nov 9, 2008 7:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're being realistic...

not being pessimistic. You don’t fold a new starter and two new bench folk in without some hiccups. Of course, Oden gets injured so they’ll have to readjust when he gets healthy. I think it’s realistic to expect the Blazers to be competitive in nearly every game and win around half of them. I’d be pretty stoked if we won 43 games and learned that Oden can defend the paint and that Bayless can run the point. We’re already learning that Batum can play SF so maybe we can package Webster with the RLEC.

A bit off topic, but I think Webster needs the ball too much to start. With Roy and LMA, shots are at a premium so we need a distributor and a couple of garbage collectors rather than another gunner. It’s a bit why I don’t want Outlaw to start.

by torsoheap on Nov 9, 2008 8:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Webster doesn't take that many shots

Webster can’t really make his own shot and spends most of the time playing off the ball as a spot-up shooter. Most of his shots come when his defender leave him open to double team Roy/Aldridge/Oden and leave him open. Webster is a perfect fit with the starters because he doesn’t dominate the ball and he is a good enough shooter to punish the other team if they try to leave him open.

by trk on Nov 9, 2008 10:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great analysis, Dave!

We were competitive two of the road losses.

Last I checked, Utah and the L*kers are 9-0. They are playing great basketball. We are still putting the pieces together, and are tied for 6th place in the West.

I love where we are. I am shocked we are not 1-5 or maybe 2-6 given the schedule.

There once was a Sea’ Cap’n Nate
Whom with Blazers did negotiate.
The pool, t’was so deep!
"That KP don’t sleep."
Gold medals and rings were his fate.

by LaoTzu on Nov 9, 2008 2:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Utah lost to the Knicks today

Zbo has become a 3 point gunner— he loves D’Antoni ball and Jamal Crawford is predictably thriving.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2008 2:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

NYK may not win a title with that group

But I bet the D’Antoni’s style is going to start increasing the ticket sales soon. That’s good for the team and good for the NBA.

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The worst part

Is that the Knicks never had problems selling tickets, even at Isiah-balls worst.

Merchandise sales, ticket sales, all as good as ever for them. So, since the fans weren’t voting with their dollars, makes it easier for the owner to keep being dumb.

Of course, it is NYC, with 80 gajillion people. SOMEONE will go to the game and buy the crap!

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Nov 9, 2008 3:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with almost all of this

Really we should have lost either the Houston or SA game but they weren’t as lucky as Dave suggests— I disagree that Finley hits that shot 8 out of 10— that would have been true a few years ago but he is nowhere near the player he used to be… and while Roy’s shot was a miracle, that Yao three point play wasn’t exactly super repeatable either.

However, Dave’s general idea— that we’ve been a little lucky but but pretty decent. -5.2 point differential suggests we should probobly be 2-4 but even that is not too bad against these teams.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2008 2:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The good news is...

That point differential is based on such a small sample number, being 3-3 isn’t unreasonable.

We really need a nice blowout (in our favor) to fix that number right up.

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yep

we’re in good shape right now. winning 2 of 4 on the road trip would be a great next step.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2008 2:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a 5 game road trip.

Honestly I’d take 2-3.

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah 2-3 would be fine

Its a 5 game trip, but the Blazers go home after the Minnesota game, before Golden State.

3-2 would be terrific, but 2-3 would be decent.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2008 2:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Miami and Minny are winable road games

and NO has not been playing as well as last year

by southern oregon on Nov 9, 2008 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We have also been kind of unlucky

Our opponents have been shooting 47.4% on 3-point shots and 84.8% on free throws. There is no way that those numbers will stay that high. If our opponents were hitting their shots at the rate that they normally do, we might have won 1 or 2 of those road games.

by trk on Nov 9, 2008 3:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The 3-point % isn't all bad luck

We’ve given up a lot of open 3-pointers this year to good shooters.

And 3-point percentage skyrockets when good players are open… they regularly will hit way over 50% during shootarounds.

Defensive adjustments will bring the 3-point % down.

Not sure what to say about FT%. Have we just played teams with unusually good FT shooters to start the season?

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 3:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

It really has seemed like the Blazers have just caught teams on hot shooting nights. Yes, a lot of those 3-pointers have been open. But when you’re going good, teams even miss open shots. It’s been remarkable to see so many 3’s going down. I’d say it’s been a combo of poor defense and hot shooting by opponents. The latter factor will even out over the season.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Likewise with opponents' free-throw percentages

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The ball may be in Nate's court

For some reason, he looks confused and perplexed…the team has no identity and the unity on the floor is not there…..the offense is bland ….the defense has no structure …there does not appear to be a game plan…..I see an unorganized group of coaches and players……What does Nate want to do? …… you can’t just let Roy and La take charge and sit and hope for the best…..I’m seeing things out there that make no sense at all…..
    The pressure may be getting to him…..and he appears deflated by it all…..(the ton of hype surrounding this years team) We have good players with a good combination of BBIQ and athleticism, so now it is in the coach’s hands…..Or do we continue on the same path and conclude at some point, we don’t have the right players?
   Lots of people say ….it’s early, so relax and enjoy….But watching the Blazers has not been too enjoyable, so far(from a basketball point of view and not just a fan)…….And isn’t it early for the other teams, as well?

by 67 on Nov 9, 2008 2:37 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

The Blazers aren't the only disjointed team though.

The tiny sample size makes it hard to draw any conclusions, positive or negative. The Rockets lost to the Blazers because they aren’t fully there yet, and they only added one major piece and have far more experienced players.

It’s not fully in Nate’s hands yet IMO. This is partially a development year because of who Pritchard added to this roster: three rookies plus a returning Greg Oden and unestablished Ike Diogu. That doesn’t scream win now. I’d be worried if Pritchard added a few more raw prospects next year outside of a number one pick or something, since it’d likely mean he doesn’t believe we have all of the pieces yet to just plain go for wins.

by poster on Nov 9, 2008 3:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

Nate has lost a couple reliable pieces from last year (Jones and—yes—Jack), and replaced them with brand new, albeit talented, pieces. He needs to see these guys playing together in different combinations under actual game conditions to see what he has and to evaluate what will work and what won’t. And these players need to learn each others’ strengths and weaknesses and develop a feel for playing with each other.

There’s no getting around it: growing pains are inevitable. When Oden returns, it might actually get worse before it gets better, as at least the team is used to playing with Joel. And having Oden come off the bench—as some have suggested—is no solution, as GO will only develop if he’s allowed to play against NBA starters.

So we impatient Blazer fans need to deal with it. This is NOT the Blazers’ championship year. That window begins to open a crack next season. This year is about growing and gelling—and hopefully getting a little playoff experience under the team’s belt.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah

next year might be also “getting to know each other” year. We will have that salary cap and if we wont sign or trade for a super start, then we might add 2 decent vets. And it wont be enough time to know each other if there is a major trade in February. And we dont know what can happen this year. There might be some injured players through the whole year. I hope Blazers wont get hit with injuries like they did before the start of the pre-season.

by RipCity on Nov 9, 2008 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seems kinda funny,

someone named hurryup preaching patience! I agree w/ you.

by crakarjack on Nov 9, 2008 5:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well I'm just a basketball fan,

so I may see things differently….that’s what makes the world go round ( not too exciting if everyone agrees)….
    I am not talking about what the players need to do….they will play better, together, eventually…..it is up to the coaching staff to provide them with the playing platform to get better…..patience may be something for the fans, but the coaches can’t stand behind this as their only battle plan…..Flexibility is a necessary ingredient that needs to go right along with patience…..they have the luxury of having a flexible team so they need to set the offense to that.(which they have not done)…….and you, so much, need that during the course of a season, because ….injuries will always happen and being able to play without injured players is a must. …..What if Roy got injured? If you lose him, you not only lose a great player that is an intricate part of your team, but you lose your whole offensive scheme of things…You have 5 people out there and will always have different combination’s, so build your offense with that in mind….We are way too predictable…..
     This is why they need to figure out how to play with players that may not be stars, but can fill in because they have a flexible enough offense to accommodate pitfalls of losing a player or 2 during the course of the season…..
    It is also necessary to keep the defenses honest. Teams can stop us because they know what we are going to do….
     You preach patience and I say this: I would have a lot more patience with this team, if they showed me that they were experimenting with ways to get everyone involved and using that as a platform to build their new team with…but they are not doing that…they are using last years battle plan and I have no patience with that continuing ( it still applies , but only as one of our options, not our only one.)……..
    They have not shown that they wish to get some flexibility in their offense when having new players dictated that, even before the season started…..
The coaches need to give them the platform for developing this team from what players it has today, and not even think about what they had last year…..and there should be no reason at all to be so defensively inefficient…..this is not wait and see patience, but simply lack of preparation…..or at least it has not been translated out on the floor….So many people see this, and have the right to be puzzled and raise the questions they have……………….

by 67 on Nov 12, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've always wondered if its a vicious circle...

So the Blazers are the owners of the third worst opponent FG% in the NBA. How much is mental on the part of the opposing players and how bad is the Blazers defense? I am an opposing player coming to play the Blazers tomorrow. Coach and stats show that the Blazers give up a high percentage therefore I am going to shoot a high percentage. Is this positive mental outlook for “them” created by a negative defensive image the Blazers are creating for themselves going to create a long-lasting problem? I think so.

Yet, to this teams credit, 3 of the 6 teams that the Blazers have played thus far are in the top 5 in the NBA for FG% (Phoenix 1, Utah 3, San Antonio 4). So, while the Blazers are third from the last in OPP FG%, they have been playing the best teams.

If we have more games like Minnesota, where we only give up 41.7%, this should improve. However, if it doesn’t, players are going to continue to get increasingly confident in their ability to shoot against our Blazers.

by PtownJake on Nov 9, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

right

a portion of our bad defensive stats has been due to playing good teams. Minnesota had plenty of good looks, but they didn’t make as many… because they are Minnesota. We are a below average defensive team for sure, but I don’t think we’re one of the 5 worst.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 9, 2008 3:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Depending on Greg's play

We look a lot like a team in the 16-20 ranking after averaging some lesser opponents in.

by Timmay! on Nov 9, 2008 3:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point about those stat sheets

As I wrote above, some guys that came in shooting badly have magically caught fire vs the Blazers. I don’t accept that it’s all due to the open looks they’ve gotten. Do you think they didn’t have any open looks against other opponents? Sometimes you just catch a team on a hot-shooting night.

The Blazers did that vs the Lakers, and succeeding opponents may have looked at that and gained confidence. Of course, the key to shooting IS confidence.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Nov 9, 2008 3:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

for instance

roger mason of san antonio was 6-7 vs the blazers. i thought ‘oh, another smart pickup by the spurs.’ then on tv the other night, vs miami, he was 6-17 (and it seemed worse). the shots against us were contested, tough shots. he had a lot of open looks vs the heat.

ignacio

by ignacio on Nov 9, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Getting up to play the Blazers

Dave has hit on this before but with all the hype that surrounded the return and arrival of GO & Rudy, a 41 win season and expectations for this season, teams are getting up to play our team. I am guessing that many teams in the growth/redevelopment stage are looking at us on their schedule and saying “here is our test to see where we are at,” and the good teams are looking at us as another good team and are going to bring their A game. Maybe it’s a hot night but teams are going to bring it this year and for many years to come.

by PtownJake on Nov 9, 2008 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of teams...

are saying, “You think you’re good eh? We’ll show you.”

by torsoheap on Nov 9, 2008 9:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I wants me GO

Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around

by Lizzy Lowblow on Nov 9, 2008 3:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

same.

im sick and tired of arguing with people about him. they are just dismissive when talking about greg.

"All our holes," says shooting guard Brandon Roy, a surprise All-Star last year in his second season, "are holes that Greg is going to plug."

by bowdown on Nov 9, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not exactly thrilled with the play

Being 3-3 doesn’t give me much comfort knowing how the Blazers have played in 5 of the 6 games. I still feel the only good game the Blazers have played is the Houston game and that was a game where the Blazers blew a 10 point lead in the 4th. The Phoenix game was not that close if you watched it live, you never had the sense the Blazers were in any control of the game even being up at halftime. The Utah game was similar to the Wolves game where you could tell which team was playing and the other just sleepwalking. The Spurs are 1-4, squeaking out a 2OT win over the same Wolves the Blazers couldn’t put away in the 4th.

One thing that gives me pause on the team is how much the offense has to work to score. Nothing comes easy within the offense, even against a poor defensive team like the Wolves. The bread and butter pick and roll has been noticeably ineffective, pushed aside by isolations.

I don’t think Oden and Webster will cure what ails the team. Rebounding has been surprisingly robust and the 3-point shooting is near the top of the league. I feel Przybilla is under appreciated here. His defensive presence and rebounding anchors the team. Batum and Fernandez have stepped up to fill in the void left by Webster’s injury and Jones’ departure. I think the one guy this team misses the most believe it or not is Jarrett Jack. Another guard who will drive to the paint and cause the defense to collapse. Jack took ball handling pressure off of Roy. He played the pick and roll well enough to create some offense for the team. This year, you can see how frequently Roy is handling the ball and acting as the offensive creator on the team. Honestly, I don’t think he’s a good full-time PG because the offense lacks player movement and he becomes a one on one player. Portland needs another penetrating guard and playmaker. No, I don’t think Sergio is the answer, he doesn’t actually penetrate to the paint. The key guy is sitting on the bench, Bayless. I’m hoping he’ll grasp the PG position and mature his game as the season goes on. Right now his game is not ready yet, but I know the coaches are doing everything to help him. I look forward to seeing how Bayless improves.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Nov 9, 2008 4:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

me too

i think he’s a real missing piece

ignacio

by ignacio on Nov 9, 2008 4:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree about Bayless

Or at least I would say that:

1. The point guard situation is unsettled.
2. The inside game is pretty weak (without GO).
3. Bayless has a lot of strengths that would help with (1) and (2). He might or might not be THE answer at point guard, but surely he could make a difference.

Question: You say, “I know the coaches are doing everything to help him.” Is that true? Is he on a path to play this year? Anybody know about this?

by Kaboomm on Nov 9, 2008 5:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bayless is not a PG

Bayless is a scorer. Pure and simple. It’s really difficult trying to turn a scorer into a PG. Billups made the transition, but it took 4-5 years and 4 or 5 teams.

In the short term, we can team Bayless with Roy or Rudy in the backcourt. Bayless will play the 2 on offense and the 1 on defense and Roy or Rudy will play the 1 on offense and the 2 on defense. Without trading for an elite PG (which I think is highly unlikely unless we are willing to give up Roy and/or Aldridge) , a 3-guard rotation of Roy, Rudy and Bayless is our best option. Roy, however, will have to show that he is willing to share the ball with all of his teammates. Has Rudy scored when he and Roy have played together?

by Turnout on Nov 9, 2008 7:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He doesn't need to be Steve Nash...

but it would be nice to have someone who can get to the rim to pull defenders towards the basket freeing up outside shooting.

I see Bayless as more of a Tony Parker kind of dude: someone who can light it up, but rarely cracks six assists. He gets his teammates involved, but doesn’t always have the ball.

by torsoheap on Nov 9, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rockets have Skip-to-my-Lou and Brooks -- speedy "scorers."

Derek Fisher from the Lakers will NEVER be confused with John Stockton and their next big thing, Jordan Farmar, is a speedy take-it-to-the-rack scorer.

MANY winning teams in the NBA have point guards who are “not a point guard,” as Turnout puts it… Tony Parker is the CLASSIC model of what Bayless might become. He’s a score first, score second, pass third take-it-to-the-rack speedster.

"I’m glad Sergio played well in pre-season, but he should be getting killed for whining. He ain’t that important to the country of Spain, let alone the Trail Blazers." --Mortimer Pritchard

by timbo on Nov 9, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rafer Alston sometimes isn't the most willing distributor of the rock, but ...

his awesome ball-handling abilities are way superior to that of Jerryd Bayless.

I also wouldn’t put Bayless in the category of Tony Parker. Unlike the Frenchman, Bayless isn’t a genuine speed demon — even though he can take it to the rack with tenacity — or, for that matter, a deferential passer in dribble-drive kickout situations. Bayless, in all honesty, is in the same legaue as undersized shooting guards such as Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, and even the long since forgotten Jay Williams. As it is, those three have all masqueraded at the point — despite being selfish, me-first floor generals — during different times in their respective careers; that scenario will eventually occur with Bayless, too, which is going to be painful to watch as an observer.

by AK1984 on Nov 10, 2008 12:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I knew you wouldn't miss another opportunity to criticize Bayless......

….. you are as predictable as Portland rain in November. I have never seen anyone speak with such cock-sure certainty about the future development of a player so early in their career. Either you should be hired as Assistant GM or perhaps you could try a little more humility.

I don’t know with any certainty whether or not JBay will be able to make the transition necessary to be a good fit with this team. It does seem clear to me that Blake struggles defensively on a regular basis, particularly against quick PGs. Sergio’s defense, although improving, is even worse. I think JBay has the foot speed, strength and tenacious personality to develop into a good defender at the “1”. I am not saying that he is ready, but I think of our three PGs he is the one who has the most potential as a defender.

On the offensive end, JBay is clearly the best of our three PGs at taking the ball to the hole. He has a decent, if somewhat herky-jerky, stroke and with work and time I think he will be an adequate to good shooter. His ball handling seems decent for a rookie. The problem with his game is that he does not yet understand the nuances of distributing the ball. You seem to suggest that there is no chance that he will ever develop this skill. Why? To me, whether or not he develops this skill, remains an open question. He seems to have the necessary physical tools. He seems to be quite bright and articulate. He is fiercely competitive and has a tremendous work ethic. Again, why are you so cock-sure that the guy can’t learn to run a team?

I don’t mean to seem hostile, but you have been making these posts, over and over, since the day the team drafted JBay. I respect your knowledge of the game, but I find the tone of many of your posts difficult to digest.

by upper left corner on Nov 10, 2008 7:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

you make a great point that last year Jack took pressure of Roy, cuz he could attack the paint and get the other team in foul trouble so then it was easy for our perimeter guys to get open shots. Thrilla really impresses me with his defense and rebounding. Yeah he is underrated by us allot, cuz we look at Roy and LMA allot. My problem with the teams perimeter defense we let teams shot open shot cuz we rotate too late, and it allowes the guards to shot a open shot or penetrate inside, where Thrilla wont want to pick up a foul, plus our defense in general sucks. The other thing that really concerns me is that we cant run or get easy baskets. I think that we don’t know how or when to pass for a easy basket. I think that Rudy is the only one on this team that can create those easy baskets. Roy and Sergio also can create easy baskets but not that much cuz teams collapse on Roy.

by RipCity on Nov 9, 2008 5:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My steak dinner analogy

The sides came before the steak. The hash browns and creamed corn are awesome, but the steak’s late. It would’ve been nice if the whole meal came at once, but it didn’t, so we’ll just have to enjoy the main course when it comes.

It occurred to me that Oden’s going to have a breakout game. He’ll probably get in a groove and average 12, 9 and 2 blocks. But then he’s going to have one crazy game this year—like 25 points, 15 boards and 9 blocks—and the wait will have been worth it.

by grimc on Nov 9, 2008 5:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you just repeated

what i’ve been saying but in different words.

glad to know i’m not the only one seeing it though. I haven’t been frustrated with the team until this year, and i think you said it well. They’re tripping up on steps I had thought they’d already covered and were going to move beyond this year. They’ve seemed like individuals and not a team unit.

Here’s hoping they start bonding.

Here’s also hoping that Aldridge will continue being aggressive instead of running like a sissy girl from the paint. I’m tired of having an awesome power forward that can’t figure out that he can attack and own the guys down low 90% of the time. I swear if he keeps settling for jumpers I’m going to put a bonnet on his head and give him a lolipop. I will also call him sally because that seems like the opposite name of george.

I really do love the team, but I’m taking a little break from them so I can reset my expectations. We may kick it into another gear later in the season, but you’re right about the wins being “lucky”. It has been a coin toss, and it shouldn’t have been if we were playing smarter and more team oriented basketball. That does show that we have some nice talent, but i’m beyond that now. I want the nice TEAM now and I want to see that potential blossoming. We’re watching a team I’d have expected last year. Not this year. This year our team should be better than this. I think they will be, but I was expecting it sooner.

As for Greg. I’m not worried about him this year. He’ll do what he’ll do. Personally, i think it’ll all be gravy, this year. My expectations for him all come around next year.

We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.

by ratbastird on Nov 9, 2008 6:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for this,I posted this on another thread

it sort of died (Maybe I killed it)
   This observation is from last nights game, but has shown up in most all of them.
   On offense, I noticed a big lack of versatility which has been common to this this team. The high pick and roll is the same as the low pick and roll and never varies……It is a pop out pick and roll and smart teams over play it (cause that’s what we do)…it is only the talent of Roy and LA that make it work at all…This is why, if they had some variance to it, it would work so much better…things like the obvious 1. actually do a pick and roll to the hoop.2. Do a pick, pop and pick for a slasher to the hoop 3.Instead of Roy handling the ball give him a pick to enter the lane or get pop up 10 -15 ft. jumper or a dish off. 4. Fake the pick and pop and do a slash and lob 5. Backdoor cut, when you don’t get the ball on the pick and pop ….these could become points in the paint, that we just never seem to get much of
    There are a lot of options that could be applied and I am at a loss as to why we seem to stay with such a stagnate one….Roy is a talent and using his skills is a must….But I have noticed, that when the ball gets in Roy’s or LA’s hands, the rest of the team stops moving or just goes brain dead, if you will. (except for Rudy….. he’s in every play whether he has the ball or not) if your other players quit the offense, then it makes it harder for Roy and LA, because they end up one on one (or 2 or 3)…Just watch the next time Roy or LA gets the ball…..the flow of the offense stops (literally)…then gets slow and deliberate and the defense knows exactly what’s coming……
   Nate is putting too much pressure on Roy and LA to complete the play, because the offense has become too robotic and has little versatility and no imagination…players like Rudy, Batum and Sergio, give the team some gut instincts to interact with the normalcy of the set offense…..This is why you can see a difference in energy when they are on the floor….it changes the flow and thus keeps the defense honest…..
   On defense there is no structure at all… the opposite of the offense…..It lacks fundamentals and appears to have no game plan….like denying the ball to someone, overplaying a players strong point, double teams, pressure on the ball, covering the weak side options, rotation to the 3 point shooter,etc……random defense it is….
   It is understandable that this team is still working out some things and still need time playing together, but lets not turn a blind eye to addressing our weaknesses….there is enough talent on this team and decent BBIQ to accomplish these tasks….but sticking with the same game plan night after night may not be the answer ( it’s also not very entertaining )…unless you call .08 sec, desperation jump shots, for the win, satisfaction enough……

by 67 on Nov 9, 2008 7:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said

If I were 6’11", I’d be as close to the basket as possible. Why does he want to jack up threes when he can serve up facials?

He’s modeling his game after the current Rasheed Wallace, not the vintage one.

by torsoheap on Nov 9, 2008 9:06 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

In about two years

we’re going to love this like we love baby kitties and ice cream. But when Oden’s out and we need a low post game it’s not as much fun.

—Dave

by Dave on Nov 9, 2008 10:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, with Oden it works

The problem is, he can also own inside and without Oden, we’ll need that. He needs to get it through his head to attack and to REBOUND.

Good players should adapt to the team need and recognize it without me putting bonnets on their head.

We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.

by ratbastird on Nov 11, 2008 9:07 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why

I have thought that it would make sense to trade Rudy for an elite point guard.

1. Because an attacking penetrating point guard who can get to the foul line and rack up assists would complement BRoy and take the PTBs to the next level. (And Rudy alone doesn’t)
2. Because the iso/ pick and roll offense is what we do. (And is not a good fit for Rudy)
3. Because Rudy would fit better in a more creative uptempo offense.
4. Because Rudy’s value may be high enough in the league to get a serious PG.

We have to be realistic about our offensive identity. A methodical, half court offense may be very effective with GO, but does not maximize the potential of all the players on the squad. And, with this crew and this style, sorting out our deficiency at the 1 is more important than having an explosive sixth man like Rudy.

But I have been assured by posters on this site that PA and KP are way too in to Rudy to trade him.

If we keep him, Nate’s gonna have to figure out how to use him. And the very entrenched offensive approach described above by 67 will have to be adapted.

We need a point guard!

by Blazin' on Nov 9, 2008 11:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's not luck, if you can do it again and again

The Blazers are 3 and 3. A lucky 3 and 3? I don’t think so, even though it’s a very young team that lost 2/5 of its starting lineup. What impresses me is that the gumption that got them to .500 last year without Oden is still there. The Blazers are good down the stretch, mainly because Roy is good down the stretch AND Nate is good down the stretch. That means you win games sometimes that maybe you shouldn’t. Is it “repeatable”? We’ve seen it a lot the past year or so, haven’t we? Now, add Oden back in and Martell and maybe every win doesn’t have to come down to the last two minutes….

by flightrisk on Nov 9, 2008 11:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you can be lucky

multiple times in a row.

We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.

by ratbastird on Nov 11, 2008 9:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We're in great shape

We haven’t really played a good game yet. We have two starters out. And we’re 3-3 against the toughest opening schedule in history.

Sure, we stole a win. Law of averages says you only get one of those two, but we got them both. So what? All we have to do is get enough to keep us in the hunt until this awesome team starts to click.

We only need one win on this road trip, because all we need to do is stay in the hunt. At the end of this trip, we will have played 8 on the road and three at home, and against some really tough teams (I include Miami in that, because that is NOT an easy team to beat on the road when Wade is healthy). If we walk out of those 11 games with four wins, with two starters out injured, depending on two rookies for major contributions, we’ve done well, really well.

If we get two wins on this trip, we have put the league on notice that we truly are a team to watch, even if the wins are stolen. If we get three, they’ll be shaking in their boots wondering what we will be when we are healthy and our offense starts to click.

We’ve played like a team that doesn’t even know how to play offense against the best in the West and are 3-3. It’s a great time to be a Blazer fan.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 10, 2008 1:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

sorry

I can’t let you get away with saying we’ve played like a team that doesn’t know how to play offense.

We are 3rd in the NBA in points scored per possession, trailing only the Suns and Lakers. Don’t get confused by our low scores— we play a slow game with few possessions. Indeed, we are last in the league in “pace factor.”

Its defense where we’ve struggled— We have given up the 3rd most points per possession in the league, ahead of only the Kings and (get this) the Spurs. That’s right, the Spurs have played the worst D in the league so far. Crazy.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 10, 2008 11:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
Its defense where we’ve struggled— We have given up the 3rd most points per possession in the league, ahead of only the Kings and (get this) the Spurs. That’s right, the Spurs have played the worst D in the league so far. Crazy.

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Nov 10, 2008 11:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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