Outlaw Needs To Go
by JordanLeDoux on Nov 5, 2008 9:01 PM PST
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PrintFirst, I want people to understand that I know that you can't blame a loss on a single player, and you can't blame it on the refs. The whole team lost to Utah tonight in the early fourth quarter when they let it get close enough for the refs to have an impact.
Good teams don't let the refs throw a game by never letting the other team get close enough where it matters.
However, once you get yourself into the unenviable position of squandering an early 4th quarter lead, you have to play the game and win it back.
And in this way Travis Outlaw caused more problems than any other team on EITHER team for the Blazers.
I would not have brought this up, except that Outlaw has done the same exact thing the entire season so far. So here is the problem.
Outlaw is the worst defending SF we have, bar none. It's not even close. Which means in order to benefit from having him on the floor his offensive game needs to be a great asset to the team on the floor.
Outlaw however has never played team basketball, he plays Outlaw basketball. By this I mean that on offense he usually is not moving away from the ball unless they run a set play. He also doesn't have what we call "options".
When Roy gets the ball at the top of the key he has options. He can pass, and so the defender must respect the passing lanes. He can drive, and so the defender can't crowd him. He can shoot it, and so the defender can't give him space.
In fact, doing all three of these things is impossible for one defender to accomplish, which is why Roy gets double teamed. If you look, nearly all players that get a double team have options.
Outlaw does not have options however. He gets the ball on the right side of the hoop, or takes it to the right side of the hoop. He doesn't look for the pass, but beyond that he's not a great passer. He doesn't look to drive, but beyond that he's not talented at it either.
He has one, count it, one move. When he gets the ball he can pull his defender to 15ft, jab step and shoot. And that's his game. It's not like he's particularly bad at shooting the ball... he shoots a decent percentage, from both the field and the 3pt line, but when Outlaw is handling the rock, we might as well be playing 5 on 1.
This is just the offensive end, not the defensive end where pages and pages could be written about unsmart fouls, foolish gambles, and poor positioning.
Look back at the last few minutes of that fourth quarter against the Jazz. Outlaw did his routine, but he usually faced two or three defenders, and since he has one trick, ALL of them could guard against it.
If Outlaw was the best player on the team this wouldn't be an issue. You'd be expecting him to perform his one trick. But he is NEVER the best player on the floor, and the fact that Outlaw offense means taking all of the better players on the floor out of the play is bad news.
I like Outlaw. From what I hear, he's the most liked teammate as well. That's something to think about, surely. But while he's commanding 20+ minutes against playoff teams we cannot afford to be playing Outlaw basketball... we need to be playing Portland basketball.
Unfortunately, I feel like this leaves the team with one real option for dealing with things: either Outlaw has to learn to play the kind of game Webster and Batum can bring, or at least the kind of game Frye and Aldridge can bring, or we need to see what better fit pieces we can get back for him from another team.
Whenever Outlaw goes out on the floor now, I feel as if Portland is playing with a handicap... we certainly don't need any of THOSE this season.
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I didn't see the game,
but I have had that sinking feeling since the season started. Also, Rudy + Roy does not work, at least as of yet. Rudy plays fast; Roy plays slow.
Marc Gasol´s formula.
Asked about his way to succeed, Marc Gasol said: "If the coach asks me for banging my own head 200 times, I do it. Even more, I do it 500 times."
--translated by Amlmart
actually rudy plus roy does work.
it worked in the utah game. they both played great, it was outlaws shot selction that ultimately lost us the game other than the fouling.
Rip City REVIVAL
It was the fact that TO was playing instead of Batum that cost us the game
NATE
by southern oregon on Nov 5, 2008 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
agreed
I hate how nate has to show loyalty to certain players…he did it last year with jack and is doing it again this year. i know he has to play trout…i dont have a problem with playing trout some minutes…but batum was killing…travis wasnt. batum deserved another stretch late int he game. it is widely known that nate likes experienced players…but heres the problem…we are a young team and no one is going to gain experience unless he gives them minutes. you can’t have it both ways nate.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:27 PM PST up reply actions
well
I didnt like how Roy played at all. I was so mad at him today like never before. He would complain to refs about not getting his all-star call, but was not taking over the game until 3 minutes to go. And Rudy does not work with Roy from what I saw. Rudy just stands on the 3 point line when Roy has the ball.
yeah Roy was not happy
I hate when he complains. Its annoying and pointless. Rudy and Roy dont play well together. Its sad. I just think Rudy likes to spead the game up a bit, which works well w/ the 2 unit and Roy like to command his offense in a slow and controlled manner. They cant play together, Nate knows this yet keeps them in at the same time.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
I think they play fine together
I think the problem is that Blake usually plays with them too, and because of that he forces one of them to play SF which puts them out of position. Which then cuases them to play poorly.
I thought they were fine together, too.
Roy can beat most guys when he isolates up top, drive on Rudy’s side to draw the defender, and either lay it up or pass it to a wide open Rudy for bombs.
These things take time to develop, though. It surely won’t happen in 4 games.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 5, 2008 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
You make a valid point
it’s turned into one of those, “glass half empty” nights.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
rudy isnt as effective
but they are OK together…theres no other way around it tho. nates priority is getting rudy 25-30 mins a game, and this is probably the only way around it. rudys minutes is coming at the expense of sergio however. Rudy is good enough of a spot up shooter that playing with Roy can “work” but its not ideal as Rudy isn’t being used to the best of his abilities.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
I was kinda irritated with Roy, too...
He relied on his jumper, which was failing him cuz he couldn’t make any. Nearly everytime he drove, he either laid it up or went to the line. GO TO THE RIM!
However, I was okay with the Roy/Rudy combo. Roy can blow by his guy and command Rudy’s defender, leaving Rudy wide open for bombs. That will be used lots this season.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 5, 2008 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
thats good
but I like when Rudy lobed the ball to LMA for the dunk I call that something out of nothing. If Roy will drive to the rim they can double team him with the guy thats defending Thrilla so Rudy will still be covered. But when Rudy has the ball in his hands its little more dangerous to double him cuz he can ally-oop it or find those spots where its easy for the other player to score.
Roy had an off night
And made dumbo passes he doesn’t normally make again! He’ll turnaround though, he’s Brandon Roy.
I thought Roy and Rudy played fine together, and will only get better. They just need time together, which is the biggest reason to continue to play them together. They’re going to be together for a looong time, you might as well get them used to each other!
This ain’t necessarily aimed at You’veGotToMakeYourFreeThrows, since I’m agreeing with him. Just to those ‘wondering’ why Roy and Rudy aren’t taking over the game together.
At the very least, they aren’t stepping on each other’s toes. Just need time to chemistricalize.
Mortimer
I wouldn't say Roy played great today
Roy seemed a little off his game today. There was one sequence where he messed up dribbling the ball, got it back only due to a lucky bounce, and then threw it away with a bad pass 5 seconds later.
It also seemed like he was trying to force things, like he thought it was his job to try to “take over” and do the bulk of the scoring by himself in the 4th quarter. I’ve noticed Outlaw doing the same thing (trying to take over in the 4th), and I would rather have Roy do this than Outlaw because at least Roy can get to the rim and create high-percentage shots. However , I think it would be even better if the players played the 4th quarter the same way the do the first three, working as a team to try and get easy shots.
I think Roy + Rudy could end up being very effective, but right now it is not as good as it could be. Part of this is because Roy and Rudy haven’t played together much in practice, so they don’t have a lot of chemistry yet. Additionally, Roy has never played together with any perimeter players who are as good and versatile on offense as Rudy (except in the all-star game). Right now when Roy is in the game, we mostly just run Iso plays for him or have him run a pick and roll with Aldridge. Rudy’s job in these plays is simply to stand around at the 3-point line and be ready to hit the open shot if his man leaves him to double Brandon. Rudy is good in this role because he is a good shooter, but it squanders his talents: his quickness, his ball handling ability, his court vision and passing ability, his ability to finish at the rim. Basically, Rudy is being treated like he is Martell Webster or James Jones, even though he has the potential to do so much more.
So basically, Roy + Rudy works OK right now but it is far from being at its full potential. To reach that potential, it is important that Roy and Rudy get lots of time playing together in practice. Additionally, we need to develop some plays that make use of both of them. There are a lot of different ways that we could make use of 2 very skilled and versatile guards, and it would be a waste if all we do is run plays that only use one and treat the other as just a shooter.
I miss Martell.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I think it’s going to be very beautiful game next year."
-Nicolas Batum
NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"
Yeah...
he’s tough to take. I’m just never comfortable and then, BAM, he’ll nail a big 3. And I can do nothing but grumble.
Martell coming back should help this, as you know his ability from range will keep him in the game when we need a 3. We did okay on the boards until the Przybillinator sat down, everyone outside of him was half useless.
Biggest stat of the night for me: Jazz shot 21-22 from the charity stripe. That’s a whopping 95.5%. If they shoot their season average from last year of 75.9, they only make 17 free throws, and we’re down by 1 at the very end and it’s a whole new game.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 5, 2008 9:13 PM PST reply actions
Przybillinator - hmmm, I like it!
He was awesome as usual.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
Today
no defense for the Blazers. Utah like 56% for the game. And I dont think we miss Websters 3 point shooting, cuz outlaw made 3 of them so as Blake.
We miss Websters 3 point shooting...
cuz it keeps Travis on the bench.
Webster > Outlaw on defense, all day every day.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 5, 2008 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
If everyone is healthy...
crunch time this year is probably Roy, Rudy, Martell, LMA, and Oden.
Unless someone is in foul trouble.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 5, 2008 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
At this point, Batum might already be better than Webster
At first, when I heard Batum had the highest winning percentage of all of the Blazers in the preseason scrimmages, I thought it was just a fluke. However, he has continued to play well, and I am pretty sure he is leading all Blazers right now in both raw and adjusted +/- scores. Good things seem to happen whenever Batum is on the floor. I think our best lineup (when Oden gets back) is Roy/Rudy/Batum/LMA/Oden.
i agree
but I don’t think Nate will…Nate will give trout a free pass all year despite every mistake he makes much like Jack. Book it.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
I watched tonight's game too
Outlaw played poorly, then had a clutch shot, then played poorly again. I won’t get into the defense.
I really like Travis as a person. But I’m staring at the fact this is his sixth season. And I just don’t see any signs he’s improving. This is basically his baseline now. He really is doing similar moves to three years ago, he just makes a higher percentage. I’m just not seeing growth.
During the second half, when Outlaw was in, I found myself thinking “Why is Batum not in”. That’s right, I started asking where the rookie is, while the sixth-year veteran is playing.
Outlaw has value around the league, and would go well with one other player and Raef in a trade. I have a feeling KP is already exploring that option.
Outlaw doesn't make a higher percentage
Outlaw’s shooting percentages have remained remarkably stable for his whole career. He is scoring at a higher rate than a few years ago, but only because he is taking more shots.
You know when you go crabbing and you use a cut up fish for bait to catch the biggest king crab?
Thats Outlaw
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
ok, that went over my head
"Thanks for coming to the game." - Kevin Pritchard
i dont get it as well
but i’m assuming she is saying that although a fish (travis) is edible…we should sacrifice the fish to get something really delicious such as the king crab (ie Devin Harris) lol i dunno.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 6, 2008 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
His Dribbling....
makes me go crazy…the last minute of the game he was given the ball and almost lost control two times while trying to dribble ungaurded across the half-court. His ball-handling is atrocious which limits his offensive game.
He reminds me of ME!
I didn't mean to turn you on
wasnt that last play absurd?
I was thinking, " what are you , 7 ?"
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
I'm sorry but
I put this loss more on Blake then on Outlaw. Blake towards the end of the game ended up going one on one on his defender like three times, and each time took a horrible shot. Then one time he drove to the basket and took two defenders with him leaving Outlaw open for three, but ended up driving to the basket, then past the basket! and we ended up with nothing! I like Blake, but he shouldn’t be getting more then 20-25 min per game, he just is not good enough. And I do not see why on earth he has to be on the court when Roy and Rudy are also in. I hate that lineup so much, it makes no sense! And yes Outlaw played pretty badly.
I blame this loss on Roy and Aldridge
They weren’t terrible, but they weren’t really good either. Those 2 are supposed to be our best players, but they looked very average today.
Also, our team defense was terrible. Once again the opponents shot above 50% from the field.
To be fair to LMA
He got screwed with some really bad foul calls, which is why he fouled out and didn’t play much in the 4th.
blame Nate before you blame LMA and Roy
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:36 PM PST up reply actions
3 guard lineups
3 guard line ups can be pretty effective…we were effective with it last year when it included sergio and the pace was pushed….then all of a sudden post streak and even today…we are really slow when running the offense when that lineup is used….we are taking away our biggest strength in that case “speed” and showcasing our biggest weakness “strength.” thats a recipe for disaster. Blake should be capped at 25 mins when hes playing good IMO. 20 mins for an average or a bad game would leave a lot of minutes for sergio/bayless to develop.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:36 PM PST up reply actions
You guys
all hit it on the nose. I want to add something meaningful but I don’t know what to say. So I just won’t say anything at all. O wait…too late
Without Blake
There would have been no game. And when his teammates let the shot clock run to 5 and give him the ball what else is he suppose to do. Travis played terrible tonight. He can;t even make a quick pass to swing it around the perimeter. He slows down everything we do and he’s not even good in the transition game anymore. He’s not aware enough to get a good break on a play. I love the guy but he’s got to go. I don;t mean get him out of town for nothing, we should package him for someone who can play D and hit the open jumper
Oden/Pryz
LMA/Frye
WebFoot/Trout
Roy/Rudy
Blake/Bayless
**Champs 08-09**
by BigCelPhone on Nov 5, 2008 10:34 PM PST reply actions
I agree
That Blake saved us in the first half, however he was terrible in the 4th, and the situations I spoke about were not with the clock running down. I dont put this all on him though, he is a very limited player, and for his limitations he gets a lot done. I put this on Nate, Blake just isnt good enough to get the minutes he is getting, and with Roy and Rudy in the game I think he is not needed.
yes...blake was not the problem.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:36 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I'm in the minority of wanting to keep Travis.
Just only as part of the 2nd unit. And not in the 4th quarter. And not to start games.
Sheesh.
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
so a demotion?
similar to sergios minutes?
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:37 PM PST up reply actions
Well, maybe when Oden or Marty comes back
everything will be better.
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
i could live with that
i wouldnt mind demoting him…but i don’t think nate would agree with it.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 6, 2008 12:14 AM PST up reply actions
Conley!....for the 534589038654th time
I don’t see them giving him up for Outlaw alone, so maybe this combo and a 2nd round pic or 2. May seem like a lot, but everyone is pretty high on Conley’s potnetial, and it’s not like we are giving up anything that important.
"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy
i'm not convinced
that conley will be better than sergio. if he is…he won’t be that much better to throw in trout.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 5, 2008 11:38 PM PST up reply actions
In Outlaw's defense
This is a carbon copy of last season for Outlaw, for better or worse. He quickly turned his season around last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised that he did it again. I know I was annoyed with him early last season, because he came into camp out of shape (big no no to me) and seemed to enjoy boneheadedness on the court at the most inopportune times.
I wouldn’t blame this loss on Outlaw, or anyone really— we just lost, which everyone will do in Utah this year.
The thing we might just have to realize/understand/come to terms with, is that Outlaw is one dimensional and as long as we need that dimension (one on one scoring) he is very useful.
I would prefer that Roy and Rudy are able to be our crunch time guards, and either Webster or Batum at the SF. Just watching Batum, and all of the smart plays he makes at age 19 just makes Outlaw’s lack thereof stand out all the more.
But really— is he that different than last year, when everyone loved him?
Maybe expectations got too high for him, and too many expected more. He’s never been a guy to lift a finger in the offseason, so he still probably has to find his b-ball rhythym. Outlaw could return to, or improve upon, last season as we go along.
If there is a good deal, we should sell high on Outlaw.
However, this is the same Outlaw as last year. Why is everyone souring on him? Ya gotta take the good with the bad and in the meantime I hope others get gooder at what Outlaw is good at so we can have more all-round players out there in the 4th quarter.
I love Trout, but he just ain’t versatile.
Mortimer
"However, this is the same Outlaw as last year. Why is everyone souring on him?"
Because this is not the same team as last year.
I pretty much agree
And I ain’t really a fan of his game…
I just don’t think our bad start is his fault, and I find it funny that Travis got so much love for being the same player last season, and because of a bad opening schedule the same player is now the reason we’re losing.
Fans are finnicky, that’s for sure.
I am fine moving Outlaw and I never expected him to improve the vast holes in his game, because improvement doesn’t usually happen that way— most just improve what they do well currently, and what they have at least shown glimpses of. He hasn’t shown glimpses of defensive or offensive awareness. He showed the same thing last year, and he’s in the same role on what is (until Oden is back) the same team as last season.
Outlaw is still very useful as a scorer off the bench. I’ve always preferred Martell, and nothing we’ve seen yet changes that for me— and it doesn’t help that Batum has looked better than expected as well. However, Trout is an unstoppable scorer when he is on, and that hasn’t changed.
I think people just expected certain holes in his game to magically close, which wasn’t very reasonable based on his history of not working in the offseason. I think while he is a Blazer we should appreciate what he does (streak, often clutch scoring) and not lament his deficiencies so much.
And we should DEFINITELY not blame Outlaw for losses we incur to good teams, while LMA and Roy are playing so mediocrely.
Outlaw is just a role player, and can help us, but shouldn’t shoulder the blame because he IS just a role player. I think me and you mostly agree, I just don’t think he has hurt us as much as Roy and LMA not being Roy and LMA has.
Mortimer
Nothing in my post blamed our slow start on Outlaw
In fact I said you can’t blame it on one player, and I put it on the tough schedule most.
What I did say is that it has highlighted the problem areas and made them easy to see.
All of this was discussing the flaws in Outlaws game and why that means we should trade him, not that these losses are his fault.
Rudy and Roy
On paper it sounds really good to have Rudy and Roy as our crunch time guards. I still think it is a good idea…but yesterday it just didnt work for some reason. I can’t say why but they just couldnt get the offensive flow going for themselves or for the team. I remember Mike Barrett saying something to that regard and saying how we need to get a distributing point guard in there. Who knows maybe it was just 1 game.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 6, 2008 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
We only played Roy and Rudy as the guards for 5 minutes yesterday
8 offensive possessions. We scored on 3 of them, missed shots on 2 and turned the ball over on 3. The 3 TOs are a bit concerning, but they seem like just random bad passes that I am not sure a PG could have prevented. Additionally, on 7 of those possessions playing with a lineup of Roy/Rudy/Outlaw/Frye/Przybilla, so we were teaming Roy and Rudy with 1 player who never plays within the offensive flow(Outlaw), one big who can’t create his own shot and has no post game, and one player who doesn’t really have any offense at all. If Roy and Rudy had more experience playing together and had practiced some 2-man plays involving the two of them they might have been able to overcome those odds, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if the offense didn’t look that good during that time.
Anyway, it’s a pretty small sample size and we probably shouldn’t try to draw too many conclusions from 5 minutes of play.
agreed
i agreed thats why i said it was only down to one game.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 6, 2008 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Personnel Problems
In thinking of Outlaw, it’s like a repeat of last year’s Surge/Jack feud is brewing.
When Martell comes back, what happens to Batum? I believe he should continue to start. I think he’s the glue that the first unit needs. I think he’s awesome. I think we win last night if he’s playing.
Martell should play on the second unit where HE can be a volume shooter. That’d be good for Martell.
I think Outlaw should slide to about the 12th man on the bench. What he brought last year, other players can do and do better.
I am not convinced that we need a Mr. Fourth Quarter THIS SEASON to make “Froot Loop” (thanks Dave) shots but rather people who are going to play all four quarters.
Yeah, this is the same Outlaw as last year, but we have better options now.
So: I hope we’re not looking forrward to weeks and months of JQ and Bedgers wondering why Nate isn’t playing Batum instead of Outlaw.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
I'm not ready to say he NEEDS to go, but...
I do think he’d be a better fit on a veteran team with a different sort of coaching staff. His defense and decision-making are still sub-par. How long do you wait?
Blazer Fan
Is Travis becoming our version of a tall JJ Redick?
With the difference that Travis gets playing time with Nate and SVG pulls Redick whenever he screws up something. Was just a thought I had over night. I can’t say which player Travis really reminds me of. Basketball Reference lists some strange statistically comparable players to him, most of them power forwards or centers. The only active one is Nick Collison. That might make a little sense statistically, but Travis is a different type of player who has a much better outside shot yet can’t rebound like Collison. Odd.
why aren't we seeing more jerryd bayless?
i feel like he really could have helped the team in the fourth quarter with his potent offense. I don’t understand why he gets absolutely zero minutes. Sergio is nonexistent on the court and he might be our biggest weakness.
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