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Results-based judgements (McMillan)

It seems (at least after every loss) the criticisms come out and the biggest target is Nate's coaching (unless of course it's Outlaw...)  Living in Seattle I assumed this was mostly message board banter as these types of environments typically have a lot of off the cuff type remarks and pretty extreme opinions.  But I'm down here in the Portland area visiting some family and catching up with friends and I hear more criticism in person then I do on the boards, everything from his game decisions to player development.  It seems many people would be fine with seeing him replaced (although they have no subsitute in mind.)  I've always thought Nate was a great coach and thought I'd do some research to see what I could find.  

First and foremost is the team's record.  Nate took over a terrible team that had just come off a 27 win season and was surrounded with turmoil.  It was clear that drastic changes had to be made and his first team won only 21 games.  Thankfully after the season they made the smartest organization decision in a long time and drafted Brandon Roy.  The following year they win 32 games, Roy takes home ROY honors and the team makes it's 2nd best decision in recent memory by ridding themselves of Zach Randolph and making this officially Brandon's team.  The following year without their #1 pick playing they go 41-41 and until the last couple weeks of the season look to be serious playoff contenders.  This year they are off to a terrific start and it's hard to imagine them winning less than 45-47 wins, 51-52 being my official prediction.  I know KP also has to get a lot of credit for this being that he put the roster together but it's impossible to pick who gets exact credit for what part of the whole package.

 

So, Exhibit A:

2005-2006:  21-61

2006-2007:  32-50

2007-2008:  41-41

2008-2009:  52-30?

 

Next, individual development.  Can you find a player who has regressed under Nate's coaching?  B-Roy has gone from being a decent prospect, to ROY, to All-star, to unquestioned leader of a rising team.  LaMarcus had clear holes in his game but has developed something of a post-up game and more confidence.  He is showing some growing pains right now adjusting to Oden and other changes but he'll power through them and be an all-star in the next two years.  Pryzbilla looked lost a few years ago but now looks to be the best back-up center in the league.  Works hard, is dependable, knows his exact role and is excelling in it.  Outlaw is still frustrating because he hasn't put everything together but I think you have to say he's better than he was.  He looks to pass more, is more active on defense, works harder to get boards and has shown the ability to be clutch.  Sergio has gone from showing flashes of brilliance to consistant, solid and exciting play.  Still not starting NBA material but he's constantly improving.  We could do this for every player on the roster.  Today a friend tried to argue for several players that their improvement is because they are young.  There may be truthful elements to that but when the entire roster shows improvement you have to credit solid coaching.

Exhibit B:

Individual players are consistanly improving.

 

Lastly is how the team as a whole plays.  For the last few years, this team has had the youngest active rotation in the NBA.  Nate started out playing them the smartest way, slow, methodical, half-court and well.... boring, basketball.  As the team has matured, this year we see them running at times when it benefits them and slowing the pace when things get out of control.  All measures of team play have been slowly rising, offensive and defensive efficiency, assists ratio, etc.  It was clear Nate had a plan for this team's development and it would take several years to develop.  I'd say we're about a year away from the final part of that initial plan and the results are looking pretty excellent so far.

Exhibit C:

Dramatically improving team play over last 3 years.

 

The bottom line is that while you can individually nit-pick decisions by Nate I think it's hard to argue with the end product right now.  I'd say if anything this team has over-performed for the last couple years.  Until this team disappoints, Nate has my support :)

 

And with that, it's 3am and bedtime.

 

Comment 133 comments  |  19 recs  | 

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yea im with u here

although truthfully every blazers fan wants a team that can smash the L*kers at every opportunity, im very thankful of the clear path KP, Nate and the blazers organisation took with rebuilding the team after many dark seasons.

i dont know how much i can directly attribute to the coaches, but the positive development of the team, and forcing them to learn the fundementals of the game (slow boring offense) will serve them well in grind it out playoff series, where teams like memphis and OKC will 4-0 in any playoff seies, as they dont regularly play at a slow pace.

overall im happy to be patient for a few more seasons, for sure when broy/LMA/Oden/Rudy etc get to age 26+ and have a few seasons playing together under their belt, they will win 50+ every season,.

my 2c anyways

by Yawnie on Nov 29, 2008 5:24 AM PST reply actions  

also

i suspect the reason why nate has been trying to get the guys to knuckle down on defense is because we have so many offensive weapons, i dont think scoring will be an issue in the future, especially once we get our running game happening.

ripcity > showtime

by Yawnie on Nov 29, 2008 5:27 AM PST reply actions  

Rec

I don’t know if Nate is a championship winning coach, but I’d bet he is. He’s certainly a phenomenal rebuilding coach. There is no one available who would be better for this team. I don’t think there is anyone alive who would be better for this team right now.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 5:54 AM PST reply actions  

I second the motion by the Scot...
I don’t know if Nate is a championship winning coach, but I’d bet he is. He’s certainly a phenomenal rebuilding coach.

Nate gets outcoached in close games once in a while, he’s definitely not an elite “floor general” type of coach — but maybe he doesn’t need to be. In terms of keeping the ship on an even keel, Nate is very good indeed. He seems a bit slow on the draw on player personnel matters, but gets around to good decision-making eventually, in most cases — and one must factor in that he sees practices as well as game play, so he has more “stuff” to filter through to get to the big calls… I don’t care for his offense, which is jumpshot reliant, but there is always room for growth, i reckon.

But does Nate get justifiable credit for the team’s rapid development? Only a little.

"Now with a non-provocative footer!"

by timbo on Nov 29, 2008 8:29 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

there is one way to find out

But It will never happen with this current edition of Blazer staff and there probably is no one available right now that’s better then Nate…..But it would be nice to see some “specialized” assistant coaches willing to input some expertise into Nate’s system….It’s not always good to have 100% agreement amongst the ranks….it can make you stagnat and predictable and therefore less effective …. ( IMO) that’s what I deem wrong with Nate’s system…and defense needs to be moved to the forefront…It can key your offense, allow it to flow more freely, get you easy hoops, and cover your butt when your offense doesn’t click……

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Tom Thibodeau?

just look what he did for the Celtics defense. Their overload defense is one of the main reasons they were able to manhandle the L*kers in the Finals.

by Jiggamant on Nov 29, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Riiight...

Yeah, let’s fire a coach who’s Defensive schemes won an Olympic gold and replace him with a guy who’s defensive schemes won a championship… seems like a wash to me. The players respond to Nate, are buying into his system and (despite Sergio’s one-time rebellion) are communicating well with McMillan.

by haildablazer on Nov 29, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I can agree with this comment

He does seem slow at times, but I wonder if that’s with intent. Then again, he’s still learning as a coach as well. The team he’s built is amazing and Nate DEFINITELY doesn’t get enough credit.

Greg Oden, where posters happen.

by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

He will

get credit when they get to the playoffs …if they don’t make it, he may get the blame…that’s what happens when your a coach…..myself, I look at what his team is doing on the floor and how much coaching impacts the outcome of the game…It’s all opinion, but when you get into the playoffs, it’s a whole different ballgame….coaching decisions can make big differences in the outcome of close games…..and in the playoffs everyone is “all in” so you can only look back on mistakes( that result in a loss) as a wound that can’t heal In other words, you have to move on rather quickly wounded and all….
  So a good measure of Nate as a coach will most likely be done (fairly) when he gets into a playoff run and starts to go up against the big boys….A young team with no playoff experience is a large order for this year….getting past the first round would be a giant leap of recognition for Nate…not to mention the players

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Nate is a great coach and he´s doing awe.

It´s not too late for Sergio being grateful to Nate.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Nov 29, 2008 7:56 AM PST reply actions  

awesome

I believe is what you meant :)

Awesome being “great” or “incredible” or “awe inspiring” or “amazing”

Greg Oden, where posters happen.

by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Right.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Nov 30, 2008 6:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Just one thing to ponder: His overall coaching record is still negative at 317 wins to 341 losses

That can easily change over the next years in Portland, and is not meant to bash his qualities. While maybe not a coaching marvel he is a very solid coach, but didn’t start out with good teams initially :)

by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 8:26 AM PST reply actions  

Most new coaches

don’t. It’s surprising how few coaches have winning records.

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 29, 2008 7:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Nate is an idiot

Let me spell it out for you. 3 blowouts plus a hefty win last night and Shav still hasn’t had any playing time. The guy went 9 for 9 in a preseason game, yet Nate keeps giving all Shav’s playing time to Ike. Until Nate can see that Shav is better for this team over Ike, I’ll continue to think he’s a horrible coach.

by tominhawaii on Nov 29, 2008 8:26 AM PST reply actions  

Your act has worn thin.

"Now with a non-provocative footer!"

by timbo on Nov 29, 2008 8:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Uh, really, you're going there?

Your act has been worn out since your rant about being a sub .500 team last year (which we weren’t and haven’t been since I’ll add). Tom has to be one of the funniest people that I’ve never met, but rarely do I come across a comment of yours where I don’t point and laugh as well.

by einman77 on Nov 29, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions   2 recs

OOOOOOHHHHHHH

Oh no you di’ent!

:D

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I said I was sorry.

We all got our on shticks. We’re kind of like the TV show Taxi.

by tominhawaii on Nov 29, 2008 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

So, you're Reverand Jim

And Timbo is Louie de Palma. Does that make me Latka?

by DonkeyShins on Nov 29, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you are Jeff

That dude that was only on the 1st season

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Not that guy..you are thinking of Bobby

This guy…his name was John not Jeff…my bad. I cribbed this from Wiki

“John Burns (Randall Carver) (1978-1979) – The naive young man works as a cabbie to pay for college. According to Carver, "…the characters of John Burns and Tony Banta were too similar…Some of the lines were almost interchangeable…”3, so he was dropped after the first season without explanation"

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Harsh!

At the very least, I’m James L. Brooks in the end credits (“Goodbye, Mr. Brooks!”)

Love the .sig BTW.

by DonkeyShins on Nov 30, 2008 12:11 AM PST up reply actions  

Dummy

Nate CAN’T play Shav in blowouts. Shav isn’t on the active list.

Besides, Shavlikes Ike.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 9:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Sigh

I just broke one of the rules, and called Tommy a name. Someone better flag me, so Dave can send me a nasty email about calling him Tom a name, and ban me for a week or something.

I feel so guilty. Bad guilty.

—-

OK, that’s over, that’s about all the sackcloth and ashes I can handle for one day.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 9:14 AM PST up reply actions  

That's the problem

Shav might be the best dresser, but I want to see him play at least once in a blowout. It’s no fair that Ike gets to be in uniform for all the games.

by tominhawaii on Nov 29, 2008 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Shav could

go 9 for 9 in street clothes.

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 29, 2008 7:12 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

last year in philly they were 2 players over active rotation

and they alternated nights because they played the same positions (admunson & Shavlik)

by LetsBlaze on Nov 29, 2008 6:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree about the MIP

but who knows … returns from obscurity have an appeal…It would be nice if the league got to see that he was back from th injury…although just making the roster and the 10&6 preseason was a re-emergence of sorts..

by LetsBlaze on Nov 29, 2008 7:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Three Blowouts?

I count the L*kers game, but… what other games have been blowouts? Maybe I am a rook here and feeding the troll, but I have no fear. Bring it Tom. Back it up. We’re in the age of Google, and you’re treating us like analog people.

htttp://mcmannis.blogspot.com/

by haildablazer on Nov 29, 2008 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

do you watch the games?

or at least look at the scoreboards?

Nov 19 Chicago 116-74
Nov. 21 @ Sac 117-96
Nov. 26 Miami 106-68

and Tom is no trol, just funny

The pictures kinda small, but Im giving the C's a big thumbs down

by Blazermaniac77 on Nov 29, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Agree Entirely

It still amazes me (maybe it shouldn’t) how anyone could not see the steady and solid improvment of this team – and even remotely question Nate’s skills. Talk about a challenge for a coach. This year he had to integrate 4 rookies – all good enough to get minutes on most other teams, while bringing along Sergio – whose mental state had created most of his own problems – and he’s done it. And he did it with about the worst pre-season in terms of injuries we’ve seen. Oden was not 100%, rolled his ankle, and then had another injury in the first game. Frye lost the entire pre-season, and Webster lost almost all of it. Blake and Fernandez lost several weeks each, and Roy came in coming off of knee surgery.

I agree entirely that all of this run and gun stuff is entirely premature until you first get the fundamentals down. And Nate had to move the teaching of those fundamentals into the regular season given how chopped up the pre-season was.

This man’s an excellent coach. And he’s proven it.

by Eben Calder on Nov 29, 2008 8:28 AM PST reply actions  

If there's one thing I've learned here

It’s not to interrupt a Nate-praising thread with any difference of opinion. People who like Nate get real cranky when someone disagrees. It’s like a political thing or something.

Suffice it to say, I’m not sure the numbers you posted really say much about the coaching, in either direction. Much more about the players and the draft scouting. But that’s a larger topic we’ll save for a thread that’s not about praising Nate.

Nate is so far the ultimate example in truthiness.

One thing positive to say: He’s shown improvements this season. He actually realizes you’re allowed to play Joel in crunch minutes. And he sometimes doesn’t take the hot player out of the game anymore. I specifically was saying yesterday that I haven’t seen Nate do some of the “Nate things” this season, which is a nice surprise.

Baby steps.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 9:05 AM PST reply actions  

Oh! A few more nice things to say about Nate

- This season, we don’t have 25 times of watching Brandon defended to the half-court line on the pick and roll (I really don’t miss that).

- He’s actually pushing hard to see the big men make outlet passes and get the ball upcourt to attempt easier buckets.

Just would like to give credit where due, since these can be specifically attributed to Nate’s work.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 9:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Name me one solid available

coach upgrade for the Blazers and then I’ll give you a listen to explain why Nate isn’t good enough. There aren’t any available, and only a handful in the league that you can make an argument for.

Seattle before Nate: Bad
Seattle with Nate: Playoffs
Seattle after Nate: Bad

Portland before Nate: Bad
Portland with Nate: Consistent improvement, apparent playoff berth.. then???

Not to mention that Portland was slated by the ‘experts’ to finish about 10 games worse in each of their last two seasons.

I don’t know how you can rate coaches if not their teams performance.

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 9:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Like I said, this turns into politics

I can give you any coach and you’d argue Nate’s better. (Or better suited for this team, or whatever). It becomes a circular argument and we get nowhere.

The season Seattle made the playoffs with Nate was the year their superstars were in a contract year. And they got rewarded handsomely. Look deeper into Seattle’s numbers than just that playoff run.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions  

But if you're not going to judge a coach based on results,

then how????

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

At that point it just becomes a

Uh huhh!!

Unh uhhh!!

Uh huhh!!

Unh uhhh!! type debate.

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Actually, you're exactly right

It’s really hard to judge a coach. That’s why I said I didn’t think you and I would get anywhere here.

We’re all using anecdotal data to some degree.

We’re basically doing opposite. You’re taking results and assigning it to the coach. I’m taking results, removing other factors like natural player improvement and KP’s influence, and seeing what’s left.

It’s arguable that it makes you overestimate the coach, and makes me underestimate the coach.

Then it turns into a duhhh-durrrr-durr argument. It gets nowhere.

That’s why I said I really didn’t want to heavily argue about it. It turns into the equivalent of democrats vs republicans, where it just goes nowhere.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

A valid argument

You can’t evaluate only on results, because like any other statistical evaluation, there are too many variables.

So the premise of the OP is somewhat flawed — except when all the results point in one direction, you start to say there’s no smoke without fire.

When you look at young players, not all of them will improve. In fact, most of the young players who come into the league don’t improve that much, and don’t last.

So far, we’re seeing some pretty solid improvement out of Nate’s guys, pretty much across the board. I’ll even include the JJs in that. I’ll even include McRob, who has apparently had a couple decent showings this year. Frye is debatable.

Maybe his assistants (especially Bayno) deserve a lot of credit for that, but Nate has to get some if it as well. The percentage of Nate’s young players that improve is way above the average percentage of young players that improve.

The team pulled above their weight last year. Few predicted more than 35 wins. We got 41. Few predicted more than 7-8 wins out of our first 17 games, and we’ve got 11. Few predicted 32 wins the year before last.

Nate’s after-timeout success rate in close games is well-documented. Maybe that’s just because he says, “Give it to Brandon.” If that was the only data point we have for saying Nate is doing well, it wouldn’t be much — but it isn’t the only data point.

Nate’s ability to throw out a defensive scheme that holds down opponents is going to be legendary by the time he’s done. Our use of zones last year probably won us at least 10 games. Who ever heard of a zone being effective in the NBA, with the kind of shooters every team seems to have? But Nate found the kind of zones to use for the right times, and it worked. He can put together a team defense that keeps you in the game even when Turkoglu is going for 35 and Howard is going for 20/20, or a defense that holds down Chris Paul, or virtually shuts down Wade.

Maybe Nate has an assistant that is devising these team defensive schemes. But it is the coaching staff that gets the credit. We aren’t succeeding every time, but we’re having enough amazing defensive successes to know something special is going on. Our point guards haven’t magically become all-world defenders.

Nate is trying to build a champion. He taught them to play half-court last year — you’ve got to do that to win it all. A successful fastbreak team can hide their half-court deficiencies in the regular season — ask Phoenix. Nate doesn’t want to be Phoenix. I got frustrated with our half-court game last year. I got frustrated with over-use of the pick and roll, and some other things as well in our half-court offense. But it wasn’t about last year, it was about building for the future.

I got frustrated with our half-court offense early in this season, too. But the pieces were being put in place. I can see what Nate is doing. He’s been building one piece at a time. Rather than roll out the whole thing and have young players implementing too much, he’s drilling stuff into them until they have it, even if it costs us points and even wins early in the season. When the pick and roll (or pick and pop) is only one of the tools in our arsenal, it will be very effective, because our guys know how to run it. They can do it in their sleep.

There’s lots of substance to the praise for Nate. You are right that some of the success can (and should) be attributed to other factors. But there’s just too much there to say anything but, “Well done, Nate.”

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:16 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

First, thanks for the interesting post!

I want to hit a couple points. It’s not meant to be me picking your post apart or anything. I appreciate that we don’t agree, and that’s totally cool with me. Your argument is just as valid as mine.

Maybe his assistants (especially Bayno) deserve a lot of credit for that, but Nate has to get some if it as well.

Personally I give Nate all the credit for his assistants. IMO, if he hired them, and they do well, it’s a reflection of Nate. So I guess I should note that I’m not taking anything away from Nate when I talk about the assistants. (This also applies to your defensive scheme note later btw)

When you look at young players, not all of them will improve. In fact, most of the young players who come into the league don’t improve that much, and don’t last.

From my perspective, this could simply be saavy scouting from our GM. We picked players well, and they grew. They may have grown just as well under a different group of coaches and trainers. Maybe better. Maybe not. But I just can’t give Nate credit here because we basically owned the league in drafts the last few years.

The team pulled above their weight last year. Few predicted more than 35 wins. We got 41. Few predicted more than 7-8 wins out of our first 17 games, and we’ve got 11. Few predicted 32 wins the year before last.

I desperately wish to separate Nate’s influence from the players’ natural growth being faster than we expected. I wish I had an answer there. I’ve just fallen a little more on the players’ side than the coaches. I can see why someone would do the opposite.

Nate’s after-timeout success rate in close games is well-documented. Maybe that’s just because he says, "Give it to Brandon."

Cool, that was my original argument when the timeout theory came up (along with a few others), but kind of nice that others now note it. :)

You are right that some of the success can (and should) be attributed to other factors. But there’s just too much there to say anything but, "Well done, Nate."

I really do want to note again that I don’t think Nate’s a bad coach. I just think he’s average. He’s done a good job, but I don’t think he’s necessarily done better than an average coach in his place with the same Blazer resources.

BTW thanks for the comment jscot. Good to read.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Very interesting

Here’s an interesting theory though. The theory is that while horrible coaches can have a disastrous effect on a team, a great coach really doesn’t improve the team significantly. It’s like there is a point of diminishing returns on coaches.

Article – Do NBA Coaches Matter?

I would submit that Nate is a perfectly adequate coach and that there isn’t enough evidence to say that he is adversely affecting the team and needs to be replaced.

For the record, I think he’s actually in the top echelon of coaches, and a couple championships will prove that. :)

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 29, 2008 7:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, good discussion

I think you are taking legitimate criticism of Nate’s offensive Xs & Os and extrapolating that to not giving him sufficient credit for the things he is really good at, and therefore attributing it to other causes.

I would say there is too much there to attribute to other causes, and the evidence is pretty clear that Nate is well above average for this kind of team. In fact, I think it is doubtful if there is anyone better for this kind of team. The player development is astounding — you hope a couple of your young players will improve each year. In fact, almost all of them have — except at PG last year. And that may be a weakness of Nate’s, though Sergio’s progress this year might be evidence to the contrary.

Time may tell us. Or it may not — we may have such overwhelming talent that my sister’s cat that died 35 years ago could coach us to multiple championships.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 30, 2008 8:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Time may tell us. Or it may not — we may have such overwhelming talent that my sister’s cat that died 35 years ago could coach us to multiple championships.

I’m kinda hoping that that too. :)

by Timmay! on Nov 30, 2008 8:25 AM PST up reply actions  

no one I'd rather have

except (this may get me banned) Ph*l or maybe Pop (records don’t lie) and niether are leaving

not Doc
no one named Brown
neither Van Gundy
not D’Antoni
not Adelman (even though I love the dude and wouldnt cry if we got him)
not Riley
Not Sloan (could do worse but he’s a lifer in Utah),
not T.P. (one of my favorite PTB of all time, but no thanks)
Not Scot
not Nelson
Not Dunleavy
not Avery Johnson
What other winning coaches are in or around the league?

The pictures kinda small, but Im giving the C's a big thumbs down

by Blazermaniac77 on Nov 29, 2008 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

How about Dr. Jack?

Let’s get him out of retirement as a mentor to Nate. He could teach him how to properly run the give & go, provide input on the outlet pass and sartorial mentoring (“First of all, Nate, the plad has to be big and bright!”).

I was serious on the give & go and outlet pass, BTW. Hopefully now that Luke is back from sickbay, he’ll be able to work on those plays.

by DonkeyShins on Nov 29, 2008 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Urgh

Not ‘plad’, *plaid’. Jscot is probably cringing right now at that one.

by DonkeyShins on Nov 29, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

you wouldnt hear me complain

about Dr. Jack as an assistant coach. then we’ll start to see a real platoon with the black and white units ;)

The pictures kinda small, but Im giving the C's a big thumbs down

by Blazermaniac77 on Nov 29, 2008 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

I’m also pretty upset with Blazermaniac77 saying he doesn’t want Scot.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 30, 2008 8:17 AM PST up reply actions  

But seriously

we don’t have plaid, we have tartan.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 30, 2008 8:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Tartan?

I don’t care what you put on your fish and chips

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 30, 2008 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

You put plaid on your fish and chips?

Even weirder than I thought (which is definitely saying a LOT).

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 30, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Tartan=white tangy sauce with relish

oh wait….that’s tartar!! My bad

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 30, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought tartar was

the stuff that grows between your teeth if you don’t floss.

Do you have white tangy sauce with relish growing between your teeth?

Maybe you are beyond weird.

Everyone knows you put salt and vinegar on fish and chips.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 12:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Noo

Salt and vinegar goes on your subway sandwich….along with oil and pepper. Dang …what are ya…some sorta foreigner?

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Dec 1, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Subway sandwich?

Is that, like, when you get squished between two underground trains or something?

Subway has been opening branches in Scotland recently. Pretty cool.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 1, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Good deal, getting Subway

I tried Sonic (a burger joint not known in Oregon much) last night for the 1st time….after getting rave reviews from the faithful. It sucks….what is up with that???

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Dec 2, 2008 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it's fair to say

That’s Nate’s coaching is growing along with the team.

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 9:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm hopeful that's the case

I’m not sure how much of it is KP’s and the assistant coaches’ input.

It’s not lost on me that KP talked to Sergio and Nate after the trade request. Afterward, Sergio’s minutes increased and the team has played well under him. I’m not convinced Nate has earned credit on that. It’s likely Sergio could have played just as well in larger minutes prior to that conversation, but we’d have never know because Nate wasn’t playing him.

So the jury’s still out for me on whether he’s improving, or whether he’s simply better at accepting advice help.

Either one is better than him doggedly sticking with his guns, for the record. Just want to note that.

In general, the jury is still out on Nate for me. I’m just trying to be a counterpoint to your original post. I’m convinced you’ve underestimated KP’s effect on our record, and overrated Nate’s effect.

I think an average NBA coach would have had the same results the last three seasons with the players KP provided. Hence, Nate is an average coach.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

We both agree that it’s tough to assign a certain percentage of the Blazers to success to one person. I think you can break down the variables to 3 things, luck, KP (representing the whole front office) and Nate (representing the whole coaching staff.) In my opinion, KP is one of the top 3 GMs in the league. Particularly when it comes to scouting. I think Nate is one of the top 10 coaches in the league but maybe not top 5 and surely not top 3. BUT I think his particular skill set makes him the best option for the Blazers coach right now.

I guess what it comes down to for me is that I’m not sure Nate will be the guy to deliver a championship to the Blazers but I’m positive he’s the best guy for this team right now.

And for the record, I’d rather argue Nate’s coaching ability over politics any day. Living in any city with such dominant partisanship (Seattle) leads to braindead arguments everytime :)

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 10:01 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Great post, thanks for the enjoyable discussion btw.

I guess what it comes down to for me is that I’m not sure Nate will be the guy to deliver a championship to the Blazers but I’m positive he’s the best guy for this team right now.

I think Portland definitely can win a championship under Nate. But I think they’d win multiple candidates under a better x’s and o’s coach, as the team grows.

I also avoid political arguments. :)

Someday I’ll go into the argument that Nate coaches practices, and Brandon actually coaches the games themselves. That’ll make for a wild little thread.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Amusingly,

I would neither disagree with that argument nor think it is a poor reflection on Nate.

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 10:26 AM PST up reply actions  

I honestly don't think we're all so far off the same page. :)

I just think this whole thread is too much of a love-in, without enough reliable data that specifically points to Nate as the cause. It’s good to be skeptical and make sure our data is reaching the right conclusions. Statistics can be bended to say anything.

I added a post below to talk directly about that actually.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh, also.

I think whether it’s a poor reflection depends on whether Brandon is doing that due to necessity or due to Nate deferring to the proper person.

If it’s the second, it would have to be taken into account for the next coach.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:37 AM PST up reply actions  

"....it would have to be taken into account for the next coach"

So now he’s fired? Ok….it is one thing to try to deflect credit from Nate (wrongly I believe), but now your implying he will be fire (or quit, I suppose).

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

You read too much into that.

Unless he becomes Greg Popovich or Jerry Sloan, odds are he’ll either leave or be fired eventually.

He’s previously bolted on the Sonics. (Wasn’t it when he felt slighted about their not offering a contract? I can’t remember).

I was talking in a much more general sense, not in a “we need to fire him and look for a replacement” sense. I guess I didn’t make that clear enough. :)

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Ok....I was feeling frisky is all

Yeh…they (Seatlle) pooched his contract re-up and he got bent outta shape (justifiably). An extension for Nate has been mentioned in the past (and he didn’t want to do it right then…last summer I think) and I don’t think it will be an issue when the time is right here in Portland.

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

BTW found the article after Nate left Seattle.

Get ready to be depressed (This isn’t for 92 necessarily, just anyone who was curious):

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20050706&slug=webmcmillan06

“Little more than 24 hours after learning Ray Allen will sign a new contract to remain in Seattle, they were stunned with the news that coach and longtime ex-player Nate McMillan has decided to accept a five-year contract to coach the troubled Portland Trail Blazers. The move came as a shock not only to many Sonics faithful, but to observers around the NBA.”

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:05 PM PST up reply actions  

What has Jerry Sloan won?

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Never said he did

This was purely a conversation about coach longevity, not about coaching championships.

People are really over-reactive when it comes to Nate. Wow.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

This isn't about Nate bro

It’s you’re righteous stance without any proof! Nothing to do with Nate!

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Righteous stance? :)

Seriously? :)

I’m just asking us to clear the clutter from the data to see if we can really credit our success to Nate.

I’m entirely hopeful you were actually joking here and forgot a smiley face.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

haha

;-)

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

you may have a point

but I think we should wait to decide until we have a team that can actually EXECUTE x’s and o’s! :)

Greg Oden, where posters happen.

by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

That's a really fair point.

We have to separate out when the team fails the coach and vice versa.

The team has shown signs of improvement in offensive sets this season. I’m ecstatic. If it’s simply a matter of the team growing into his sets, all the better.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

KP and Nate are aheady of the team - which is where thery should be

I agree

KP is one of the top 3 GMs in the league. Particularly when it comes to scouting. I think Nate is one of the top 10 coaches in the league

Lets say our team is just around top 10, so long as the coach and front office keep up as we get better I’m just fine with that.

Cheers, Alistair

by holder on Nov 29, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

If you have solid facts to present

then I’m cool with hearing them. I AM a nate supporter for various reasons, but I ultimately want to win. I agree Nate has been slow on the draw at times, but wonder if that’s learning or intent. Nate also learns and gets better, and that’s desire to learn and ability to learn is a rare trait, I’ve found, in this world. It generally is worth keeping.

I think the Nate suporters get up in arms against the Non-Nates because it feels like the arguments are generally emotional or lack patience. A coach is as good as his tools. We haven’t had amazing tools that were ready to be wielded. We had tools that needed oil and sharpening and even a little more anvil time to make just right. Next year the tools will be sharp and next year we’ll see what nate can really do. Even this year is still development (even if I expect more). My argument is that you have to wait until the tools are finished, or mostly finished, being crafted before you can go ballistic on Nate.

Greg Oden, where posters happen.

by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the Nate suporters get up in arms against the Non-Nates because it feels like the arguments are generally emotional or lack patience.

Hopefully after reading the rest of the thread, you’re feeling pretty comfortable that I’m not overemotional. :) I’m instead trying to bring some logic to the analysis that Nate is either good or bad. And I’ve had no luck doing it so far, which leaves me still believing the jury is still out on him.

And your point about whether the players were not yet competent enough to soak in Nate’s teachings and offensive sets is very valid, and something still bothering me too.

I’m thrilled Nate’s substitution patterns have stabilized though. It’s made games much easier to watch.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m thrilled Nate’s substitution patterns have stabilized though. It’s made games much easier to watch.

No arguments there. I’m a big Nate supporter but his substitutions, while I wasn’t exactly irritated by them, I was a little puzzled.

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 29, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I like this post a lot

People may not agree with Nate, but that’s life. People who know basketball have their own opinions about what to do in a given game situation, and at times they don’t agree with the coach, regardless of which team they watch. Of course, the people who really really know basketball (analysts and what not) seem to agree that Nate happens to be one of the best coaches out there. I love the guy, and this post is an excellent expression of why I feel that way. There are a lot of people who will think that Nate doesn’t make the right calls, that even an idiot could make better in game decisions, or that he can’t be a championship coach (I don’t even know what that argument means, that he’ll forget how to coach once he gets into the Finals?). But all of those people are still watching the game from a distance, while Nate is a winning NBA coach with a very young team playing elite level basketball with significant contributions from nearly all of the players. Thanks for writing this ericande.

by einman77 on Nov 29, 2008 9:43 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Right on...

I can’t think of a better fit for the context of the Blazers than McMillan… he should receive a nice bonus for all the work… He’s one of the best in the league right now.

by hotstuffdb22 on Nov 29, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

I think

the major issue is how Nate transitions for development to X’s and O’s and whether he can excel there as well as he does in rebuilding.

Greg Oden, where posters happen.

by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Well done Ericande.

We are starting to see McMillan’s team first personality come out in the players. I love the attitude we are seeing from most of our players regarding the playing time. All of the following players could have reasonable aspirations of playing starters minutes somewhere in the league: Webster, Outlaw, Bayless, Sergio, Blake, Frye, Pryzy, Rudy & Oden. Those guys seem happy & play right when they get minutes. Good job Nate.

by tweener on Nov 29, 2008 10:04 AM PST reply actions  

Perhaps also Roy and Aldridge?

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Exibit A is bottom line: Record

Exibit C: Stats …like team defense, Team offense…ect.

Similar but different

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I think A is probably a result of B & C

I guess the main difference I was trying to make in the points is that the overall record is a hard number with an overall trend that is very positive. In the third point I’m suggesting that you can observe differences in how the team is trying to play and how they make fewer mistakes, etc. Which is tougher to show with numbers.

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 10:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Adjusting for external effects

I know this came up earlier in the thread, but I just wanted to address it separately:

How can we confirm these changes are due to Nate’s coaching influence, and not simply due to general player development?

Also, how much of the on-court improvement is due specifically to the development of the floor leader, Brandon Roy, and his effect on the team around him?

(Also, let’s rule out Nate’s development of players as the cause. I’m not saying it’s not a cause; however, it’s often a crutch to explain improvement for players who are already hungry to improve on their own… and every coaching staff works to improve young players, so it’s impossible to say if Nate has had any special effect)

Please note, not trying to be a downer here. It’s a serious question.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:29 AM PST reply actions  

What is your take on Popovich??

Because this could be said of him too, during and leading up to thier Dynastic run

What about Phil Jackson…..he just basically rolls the ball out and the players play…right?

What about Riley in the 80’s?

What about Red?

I am not saying Nate is the next Red Auerbach, but the same argument could have been made for these guys as well, except for the fact that they got to inherit pretty much mature teams where as Nate had to build from the bottom up. That is harder, and as coach you will have a worse record because of it

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 10:37 AM PST up reply actions  

First things first.

You didn’t answer any of my questions. Instead you just compared Nate to multiple-title-winning coaches. If Nate reaches that success, I won’t be arguing against him either.

(For the record, I think Phil is highly overrated, but that he’s running a wonderful defensive scheme this season that makes me up my respect for him)

Second, I’m of the opinion that the coaches’ primary relevance is on-court x’s and o’s, and player relationships. I’m concerned X’s and O’s are not Nate’s specialty. He hasn’t shown me otherwise yet.

Also, keep in mind that Nate did not build from the bottom up. KP did. Nate developed the team. And as I said in my original comment, we can’t prove or disprove development factors, so I wanted to eliminate them from this discussion point.

Sheesh, it’s just like a political argument. I just said I think we should take a critical view of things. Not just Nate, we should always be aware of what’s bad, along with the good. I’m pretty comfortable KP takes a critical view. And he he re-signs Nate, I’ll feel more comfortable that he sees good stuff behind the scenes.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

My point was that you can't deduct points from Nates column

just cause he isn’t the GM. Your basic premise is that it is KP (the GM) and the Players that are getting it done. I brought up HOF coachs because at one time or another I heard the same things about them…all of them. As far “build” goes …..I am fine if you want use the word “develop” rather than “build” ….but the point remains, those HOF coachs didn’t have to go thru the rebuilding (that word again) process….they inherited mature team and naturally got wins in bunchs, right off the bat (which makes it a lot easier to get to the HOF, IMO)

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

And perhaps what KP does is the best indicator of all

It’s easy to judge GMs and they are probably the single most important part of any team in any sport. Coaches are tough to judge. You can probably distinguish between terrible and great when judging coaches easily but it’s much tougher to judge between say average and pretty good which seems to be the argument here. The title of my fanpost was worded pretty specifically, the results are one way to judge a coach and that’s what I’ve tried to do here. Judging by X’s and O’s is possibly more fair but extremely tough without watching tape and still a judgment call. you can’t KNOW the coach made a mistake because we can’t go back and try something a different way.

I’m a Husky (which lately has made my life very tough indeed) and this reminds me quite a bit of the argument regarding Lorenzo Romar (who coached B-Roy in college is spoken of very highly by Roy.) Some argue he can’t develop players and cite certain players and say the development of a player like Nate Robinson or Brandon Roy is because of the player, not the coach. Personally I feel you can’t have it both ways and if you’re going to punish a coach for the failure of some players you have to credit him for the development of others. In Nate’s case you have to give credit for quality of players he has to KP but with such improvement by players across the board you have to give Nate credit for that.

You want to eliminate development factors and I’d argue that with such clear evidence across the board you have to give credit to the coaching staff. Roy does make Nate look better though. He’s an extremely rare type of player who can take over a game but truly does put the team first.

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 11:12 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

How much can a team improve without a coach facilitating SOMETHING?

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Ok, please keep something in mind.

I never said Nate was a bad coach.

I said we may not be losing anything by replacing him with the AVERAGE coach. I’m just trying to level his value.

It’s not like I’m saying Nate’s useless here.

It’s frustrating when that point gets lost on people.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

BTW I'm also a Husky. :)

Dealt with similar problems when watching those teams. Still not sure what to think (I was really frustrated when they lost in the playoffs).

Please remember that I also hold players’ feet to the fire when they make mistakes. This isn’t a matter of players get the credit, coaches get the blame. At least from my perspective.

My opinion of Nate wasn’t overnight, and wasn’t due to a winning or losing streak. I think he’s in the range of an average coach, with below-average game-time management, and above-average player relationships.

I’m simply not sure that’s good enough.

It’s amazingly frustrating to actually want to talk about Nate’s deficiencies, and get replies of “WHY DO YOU HATE NATE??! HE’S SO AMAZING!”. So thanks for not doing that, Eric. :) I’m just trying to look at the bigger picture and whether he’s right long term. Glad to catch up about it.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

You're a HUSKY?

Surely this is a sign of some kind of emotional deficiency, and thus we should expect aberrant posts from you occasionally?

No?

Oh, ok. Never mind then, back to substance.

I should apologize for the diversion, but I don’t feel very guilty.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

bwahahahahaha

I knew I’d be opening myself up when I admitted I went to UW. :) I can take it!

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

by the way

This is interesting, level-headed discussion. The reason I wrote this post was in response to more-extreme opinions basically saying that Nate was terrible and should be fired today.

Although the end result here is that neither side can prove they’re right and just looks at the evidence differently it’s still interesting.

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

x's and o's?

Did you know the Blazers are rated one of the league’s best this season in efficiency out of timeouts? You say “he hasn’t shown you otherwise” but if you watch Blazer games with an objective eye…how do you not see? I ask you to pay attention out of timeouts and see how the x’s and o’s are doing. Plus, employing an effective zone against certain teams has been a strong point. If you are talking about proof for x’s and o’s…what exactly are you looking for? Are we watching different games?

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions  

It's likely that you just missed this topic previously.

But we’ve gone over this topic so many times over the past year. It’s nothing personal against you. But time and time again, this topic comes up. And it ends with the same conclusion:

Correlation does not imply causation.

You’re assigning a cause to a result that may or may not be factual. But it FEELS like it has to be right, so you tend to believe it. That’s also known as…

Truthiness. (Thank you Stephen Colbert)

I may need to add this to my profile or something so there’s a way to point at it every time another person brings up the “timeout theory”

I really do get that it feels like “it must be true” that it’s the coach causing the timeout effect. But there’s no actual causation. Heck, there’s not even correlation, because we don’t have a historical perspective of Nate’s teams before that one year’s survey!

So while it sounds promising, it’s just as easily dismissed.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Stats don't mean anything...right?

That’s an easy way to win an argument.

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

PS

I am just yankin yer chain

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Good....my Redbull is wearing off

No more starting fights today. Back to just being a smartass

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Nov 29, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Lies,

darn lies, and statistics.

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 29, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand that causation is hard to prove

But while that will always be true, no matter what, what better way to address the question of x’s and o’s than out of a timeout when the play or D scheme is drawn up. If you are going to demand an x’s and o’s coach, but submit that there is no way to ever know if a coach is good or not, than what are you looking for? Also, not personal, but keeping everything objectionable makes for a difficult argument. Through this lens, if you desire an x’s and o’s coach how would you prove he is a good x’s and o’s coach?

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

We don't know if Nate drew up a scheme during the timeout or...

…if he just said “Give it to Brandon now that he’s had a rest”.

(sorry, this is in my extended edition of the timeout theory, but I’m not up for re-posting it at the moment).

Also your second question about how to know if someone is a good x’s and o’s coach is a good one. I typically use substitution patterns and offensive execution. But it’s so hard to just use that, because there are mitigating factors (on our team, our main mitigating factor is named “Brandon Roy”). I’d love to give a concrete answer better than “I know it when I see it”, but I don’t have that for you yet, sorry about that.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

No worries

I’m not a Nate defender by any means, I’m just looking for something concrete about him. Of course we have a talented team and Nate might not have much to do with that, but with this record at this point, I have absolutely no complaints. In fact, I think it’s quite possible that just as a player develops, so too can a coach. Nate’s Olympic experience and recent ability to be more of a player’s coach than constant Sarge are promising. I site the evening at his hous with Roy, LMA, and Oden as a good example of understanding that different situations need to be addressed different ways. This was forward thinking, as a way to get egos in check early. These are the type of tools employed by a good coach, like a Popp.

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Definitely agreed that Nate is a great player-relationship coach

I noted it earlier and want to reiterate it here.

I’m really hopeful that Nate’s Olympic experiences over the summer have carried over to the team’s improvements in the fall.

We’re slowly becoming a better defensive team as well. But we were at the bottom of the list until Oden showed up a few weeks ago, so I’m kinda sitting on our defense until we see a full season.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

It is a difficult question...

You need talent to be any good, but then once your good, how much of that has to do with the coach? Phil has won so many titles and still gets tagged with the Michael and Kobe causation. Rightfully so?? Perhaps it just takes the right guy for the right group. talent will always trump the debate. I certainly never thought Doc Rivers would be a championship coach!

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:50 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah!

Screw the whole thing! I freakin hate coaches!!

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 29, 2008 12:53 PM PST reply actions  

OK Timmay, one more post before I run for the hills.

If you are willing to acknowledge:
A. That any team that has won with an amazing go to guy (or two) has a potentially average coach, and;
B. Most ‘great’ coaches are made by the players and situations where the coaches have stumbled into something great and took advantage and;
C. That no coach is absolute in their greatness

then I have no further beef with you as we have a fundamentally differing starting opinion on coaching. Any further discussion requires a concession from one or the other.

If you disagree with any of the above, I feel like there is a ton of good Nate has done and too little bad to put him in the ‘mediocre’ camp.

PS. If ‘give it to Brandon and he’ll take care of it’ is the best plan, then that is good X’s and O’s. =)

And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.

by shenanigans on Nov 29, 2008 1:03 PM PST reply actions  

A. That any team that has won with an amazing go to guy (or two) has a potentially average coach

I think this describes the 2008 Champion Boston Celtics, though with three go-to guys and an arguably below-average coach.

B. Most ‘great’ coaches are made by the players and situations where the coaches have stumbled into something great and took advantage

I’ve never been able to decide this point. for example, I’m not sure the Spurs would have four titles without Popovich, and while Sloan hasn’t won a title, he’s overachieved with different staff at different times.

On the other hand, I can’t believe Phil Jackson is in the hall of fame. I think he just did a great job of marketing an aura around himself after coaching MJ at the right time. Sometimes he’s even marketing it to his players. The triangle offense basically requires a Kobe or MJ. But he’s done a great job this season so far.

I’m really undecided how many coaches are truly “great”.

C. That no coach is absolute in their greatness

No argument on that one.

BTW I don’t mind that we disagree. :) I think it’s useful in a thread praising greatness.

by Timmay! on Nov 29, 2008 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Mr. Sonic

Nate is a fine coach. He lacks imagination. I see a lot of paint by numbers coaching but sometimes that’s just what the doctor ordered as he knows the numbers. He has not handled the Sergio issue or the Oden Issues maybe as well as I would have liked but that’s not damning of his skills and is from an outside perspective. But beyond that his mistakes are just in game mistakes that most any coach will make from time to time. Nate still knows ball and he has this team playing full out as a team. Key statement, AS A TEAM. This is huge. There isn’t anyone padding stats or not with the program. He preaches D, demands D, Nate loves the D. He deserves his shot at making this team a title winner and contender. He has three years tops to put us in the finals.

by Blazersaurus on Nov 29, 2008 2:14 PM PST reply actions  

Nates Criticisms

I dont think people criticize Nate’s skill in developing players…he has clearly done an awesome job doing that. No one can deny that. There are other parts of coaching that are a bit questionable with Nate. Minute distribution is an extremely tough thing to do…so lets just throw that out. Nate’s substitution has been pretty questionable at times…last year Nate made some weird moves late in games regarding Pryz and going with LMA at center…the Cleveland Cavs game is one that comes to mind, where the final possession of the game was with the Blazers on Defense, and Pryz not being in the game to alter Lebrons layup.

Aside from that…how he handled Sergio and the Starting SF spot with Batum/Outlaw was unprofessional as well. In both cases tho he ended up doing the right thing (not only by demonstrating confidence by giving playing time, but by his praises to the media as well).

All in all, like the team, Nate is young and inexperienced. As the team is growing, so is Nate as a coach. I expect him to go through the same growing pains as well. I don’t know if he will be the coach that leads us to a championship, but even if he isn’t he is still a damn good coach.

Honor Terry Porter

by Philthyanimal on Nov 29, 2008 4:24 PM PST reply actions  

What I have noticed so far..

is that what we observe in our desire to see this team win….what we write and rant about and pick apart…seems to be the same subset of things the coaching staff sees, takes on and emphasizes…

sooo..the improved play — better results..==>good coahing…

game over game improvement in cohesion and flow..roles emerging and solidifying..

great start

by LetsBlaze on Nov 29, 2008 7:01 PM PST reply actions  

Wow, lotta discussion while I was away, good stuff

How about we take this a different way?

Whether you think Nate is the greatest coach in the NBA of all time, not fit to coach high school or somewhere in between I think everyone is pretty happy with the direction of the team. At what point do you decide Nate is either a success or failure? Does he need to win multiple championships? If he reaches the finals twice without winning it do we need to find someone else?

Don’t worry, the Nate love-fest is almost over, tomorrow is B-Roy :)

by ericande on Nov 29, 2008 9:45 PM PST reply actions  

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