The Potential TRADE (Dum...dum...dummmm)
As you can see all...over...the...sidebar (seriously, can we stop now?) Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Blazers and Grizzlies have been discussing a potential deal. Author Adrian "Bet You Can't Spell" Wojnarwoski says specifically that the talks have been protracted, are more or less stalled, and that a trade does NOT appear imminent, but that's not going to stop gums from flapping. (Is there a more coy sports-related article than the one that says, "Here...this trade is not happening right now so there's no need to discuss it. Just thought I'd let you know..."?) So let's have it out.
The proposed deal sends Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez to Memphis for Mike Conley, Hakim Warrick, and Javaris Crittendon.
There are several levels to this potential move.
The single most important factor is how the Blazers view Conley. Forget this "He's Greg Oden's friend" stuff. The Blazers could sign Greg's high school prom date and Charles Barkley McLovin' if that were an issue. Having your best friend on the team is a distraction if the guy is furious because he never plays. So either Conley can go or he can't. If the Blazers pull the trigger on this trade you have to assume they think he's a player. This is doubly so because they'd be taking a serious step backwards in experience. Outlaw and Rodriguez aren't exactly reliable, proven commodities but Portland has invested 5+ years in Travis and 2+ years in Sergio and both are beginning to come into their own (whatever that may entail). You start over again with Conley. This does not erase Portland's experience gap at all. Conley's not going to start right away and he's not going to lead this team anywhere it's not already going this year. You're getting a backup point guard immediately and that's it. You better believe he'll grow into more than that or this deal is shaky.
You shouldn't sleep on Hakim Warrick entirely. He's a good player with a variety of offensive moves, many down low. He can fill minutes and rebound a little. But here's another issue with this trade. The Grizzlies have tried to make Warrick swing a little but basically he's a power forward. Channing Frye is a power forward. Lamarcus Aldridge is a power forward. They're both still here. You may have unclogged your logjam at small foward somewhat but you've created another one.
This trade puts the Blazers in a slightly worse position salary-wise. The salaries match up, of course, but Warrick, like Frye and Ike Diogu, is in a possible restricted free agency summer. That means he's a threat to hog cap-space unless you're prepared to release him. Unless you're talking about getting final-pieces-type talent the Blazers will probably want to keep space free or free up more through trade, not lose it. Neither Warrick nor Conley seems like final-piece-type talent at this point.
I'm surprised Javaris Crittenton hasn't been able to assert himself more than he has. I wouldn't mind him being a Blazer for a while, though it's also possible he'd just be cut, as Portland roster is full and the trade is a 2-for-3 deal.
The sum total: Conley is a potentially explosive point guard who is a ways from being explosive yet and isn't playing appreciably better than Sergio Rodriguez, let alone Steve Blake. Warrick is a nice enough player at a position where we already have one really good player and another nice enough player. We trade farther-along potential for less-far-along potential. We don't get a veteran to lead us or provide perspective that we don't yet have...in fact technically speaking we go backwards in experience. We don't get a starter at small forward or point guard in the short term. We don't consolidate or clear positional logjams. We complicate the cap situation slightly. On the face of it this deal answers none of the issues the Blazers would presumably be looking to address in a trade.
Conclusion: The talent we get back must be seen as special enough to overcome these factors. That's the only way this deal gets done. If it does go down then somebody in the Blazer front office thinks very highly of one or more of these players.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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130 comments
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Comments
Wow... commonsense is refreshing once in a while...
thank you.
No who will be man enough to delete their trade posts over there on the right? I was especially enthralled by the possible Martell for Conley type of deals. And how about Pryzbilla for Marc Gasol?
One thing is for certain… I will never doubt the ingenuity of Blazer fans when it comes to trade scenarios.
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 29, 2008 1:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
How about this trade?
Memphis would include draft pick(s) represented as cash.
This would preserve the Spanish Connection while bringing together the Ohio Connection and possible psychological motivator for Oden. I think people dismiss keeping Oden happy at their peril. Oden is still quite young and is away from home. Conley is FAR more talented then McBob ever thought about being and is worth a roster slot. It’s even possible Conley could be an eventual excellent PG. In addition, you would free up playing time to develop our young talent (Sergio, Bayless and Batum).
It’s addition by subtraction and I can almost guarantee that either Sergio, Bayless or Conley would become a top flight PG if he was developed. We know what Blake is capable of and it’s pretty good. I wouldn’t mind Blake as a back up but with McMillan as coach it will never happen. Instead Bayless or Sergio will rot on the bench. The same is true of Batum when Webster comes back. In my opinion, KP has to force Nate’s hand into developing our young core.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no way
we should absolutely not do this. how is brandon ever going to get a shot off if the other point guard doesn’t have to be honest. serg, as much as i love him, isn’t a great 3 point threat. neither is conley. i have a better idea. how about we move no one since we are 11-6 with one of the leagues hardest schedules.
by bluthbanana on Nov 29, 2008 2:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bayless
is a decent three point shot and would improve with game play. Sergio isn’t there yet with his 3 ball but is improving. You are basically trading a penetrating distributor (Sergio/Bayless) for a 3 point shooter (Blake) while either getting better defense (Bayless) or far better court vision(Sergio). A big problem with our starting lineup is the lack of penetration at PG and the inability of Blake to run a fast break. All our success at Fast breaking has come from someone other then Blake having their hands on the ball during the break.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and by the way
people act like this team is in stasis. It is not. Martell is returning and will most likely start do you really think McMillan is going to play Batum (rookie) over Outlaw (Veteran + nate blind spot)? No and that means Batum’s development is cut back. You could talk me into keeping Blake but Outlaw needs to go and Memphis is a great place for him to play as he could go home to Starkville early and often.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I particpated
In the Grizzlies – Guess sweepstakes !
As for that trade you are speaking of…
You talk about wasting Sergio’s experience of 2+ years, but what if Bayless is sent(Any correlation to the pre game KP/Bayless Chat?)
As for Travis he screams inconsistency, his situation depends on how well Martell comes back.
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I didnt hear
about the Bayless/KP chat. Can you elaborate a little?
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
by jonestr on Nov 29, 2008 8:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In the "media row" post
The writer mentioned it
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll admit I had to do a double take at the parenthetical in the title...
at first I thought it said ("Dumb, dumb, dumb….).
That would have made just as much sense.
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 29, 2008 1:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
..
What I was saying was if Bayless is sent then we actually gain experience bringing in Conley. With him having started 61 NBA games already compared to Bayless’s zero.
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
playing on a fairly bad team...
Conley should be putting up better numbers than he has. Do we really think he’s that much of an upgrade over what we have if Marc Iavaroni is playing him in almost a full platoon situation with Kyle Lowry? I’ll grant you that Mayo is taking away some of Conley’s touches, but I really believe that if Bayless played on that same team, he’d be putting up better numbers than Conley.
"Smile! You're on a poster!!" - Mike Rice
by lefty6283 on Nov 29, 2008 1:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Inconsistency
Travis, Martell, Sergio… All were very inconsistent there 2nd season. As for Bayless I believe in 2-3 years with Sergio/Conley splitting reps that Conley will put up better numbers then Bayless could splitting reps simply because the Oden connection.
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
what about the "Pac-10 Connection" between Bayless,
Roy, Frye, and Webster (he committed to a Pac-10 school… that counts, right?).
What if that could bump up Bayless’ numbers more than the Oden connection, since that only involves 2 people?
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 29, 2008 1:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Problem
They never played on the same team so they don’t have a previous connection
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 2:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What about their "Portland Trail Blazers connection"
they all play on the Blazers.
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 29, 2008 2:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bayless has a few months of experience
Conley and Oden have a life time of experience. LARGE difference.
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis
I also only think this makes sense if there’s another deal of some sort going down.
One involving Bayless and one of our PFs, and perhaps picks or something.
If this goes down and another deal doesn’t, we’d probably cut Shavlik and keep Javaris.
Every game Sergio plays seems to make it harder to trade him. He has established himself as a legitimate rotation player on the deepest team in the league. I’m just not convinced Conley is going to be any better than Sergio. Two months ago, I would have said there was no doubt about it, but I’m becoming a Sergio believer.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 1:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would have NO problem moving Sergio in the right deal
I just need more convincing that this is the right deal.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 29, 2008 1:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bayless
Instead of Sergio . Read my post :D
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would have no problem moving Sergio either
but he keeps increasing the price I would want, and like I said, I’m not sure Conley is going to be better.
Amazingly, it’s his defense that is winning me over.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 4:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Conley Is Not Worth the Trouble
He has yet to show anything on court in a team full of talent. Being a distributer, this is pretty bad. It is either that or the offensive system Memphis employs.
by Balian on Nov 29, 2008 1:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I have seen him shine in the last 5 games
Extremely. Take a look Conleys ESPN profile
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I am thinking
that there’s a possibility that this clarifies the whole Sergio-Spanish-Agent-Trade-Request thing from a couple weeks ago. It makes some sense that the guy wasn’t just campaigning for A trade, he was campaigning for THIS trade to get done.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 29, 2008 1:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
ok.
That makes sense.
I want to put points on your face.-Rudy Fernandez
by Winchester on Nov 29, 2008 2:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Would they really tell him
a possible trade was in the works?
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 4:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't they at some point have to include the agents?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
by faith on Nov 29, 2008 7:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt they'd tell the agents
two weeks in advance.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 8:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No the info about the trade
came out now. But the real thing was going on 2 weeks ago. We fans find out things a little late when its dead.
I think agents know about trades before fans know about it.
And Oden, once again, is a rookie, so non-stop fast break basketball is like fast-forwarding a song while he's trying to learn the lyrics.
by RipCity on Nov 29, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont know about this situation
but I remember in the past where agents have tried to broker trades. I think Antonio Davis’s agent may have done this, but it is a little fuzzy.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
by jonestr on Nov 29, 2008 8:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
which chemistry do you value more?
sergio/rudy
conley/oden
thats what it comes down to.
"im a buffet of goodness"-Channing Frye
by burritoman on Nov 29, 2008 1:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
There are other trades that could be done
where we could have both duo’s, or even 3 duo’s (Ajinca, Batum)
by as11osu on Nov 29, 2008 1:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well send Luol Deng over
When Joel Freeland gets off the boat :)
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or both?
See my sig. Yes, Ben, Dave. I am pimping my fan post.
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Hendrickson weighs in
Brian Hendrickson over at the Columbian has some nice info about the Blazers’ trade prospects.
Trade rumor tip: If LaFrentz isn’t involved, it probably isn’t happening
< /war >
by Diesel10 on Nov 29, 2008 1:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
well isn't that rather shanty of kevin...openly discussing the desire to bury a corps he's been carrying for the past 2 years.....shame shame shame.... :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
by faith on Nov 29, 2008 7:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Makes some sense.
Also could be classic Pritchard misdirection.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Dec 1, 2008 6:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
#25
"if i started a beer company and sold one beer for every time he(timbo) replied to himself, i'd be a millionaire, check that, a billionaire". - prezofdeath
"14 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, no turnovers. Standing ovation for Travis tonight." - Dave
by Outlaw is Rejector on Nov 29, 2008 2:51 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
this proposed trade
makes no sense. I say no, a hundred times!
There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)
My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons
by johnv59 on Nov 29, 2008 4:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I´m a Spanish Sergio fan
and i think its a good trade for getting more minutes for Sergio, but a bad for Blazers. Like johnv59 this makes no sense
by makelele on Nov 29, 2008 5:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Over the years, I’ve been a lukewarm Rodriguez fan at best. But seeing how the tenacity of grinding it out with Bayless in practice keeps improving Sergio, how can you trade him at this juncture?
Last night i noticed CP3 get noticeably irritated with the way Sergio was checking him – That is exactly what we want in a back-up point guard: the ability to bring energy off of the bench while getting into the head of the other teams’ starters.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 29, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Most importantly, Dave
you neglected to mention how getting Warrick would affect Diogu’s playing minute.
Spanish Main: The point of departure for enormous wealth in the form of gold, silver, gems, spices, hardwoods, hides, alley-oops, assists and three pointers.
by LaughingJon on Nov 29, 2008 7:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
With Sergio's improvement this season, this is a bad trade
No.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Nov 29, 2008 7:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jason Quick said on Rip City Live last night...
that he talked to KP and this was absolutely not happening.
by TallTimber on Nov 29, 2008 7:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That particular deal.
He never said he wasn’t trading. The talk to Bayless?
by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 29, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank God!!
I trust our staff, but their is no reason to make a trade for minimal value improvement (and I see the opposite of that). We are becoming a powerhouse. If our roster is inconsistent (for no big reason) than our play will be too.
by staylost on Nov 29, 2008 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If I may say ...
This trade is stupid.
Our team is playing great ball right now.
We have three 3s, but if our problem is that we are too deep, I don’t see that as a problem. why on Earth should we mess with a good thing?
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Period.
The End.
__Yes this is my passport photo__
+
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
=
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
by Y5k on Nov 29, 2008 7:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sergio doesn´t want a trade now that he´s getting playing time. Just look at his hair.
Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16
by amlmart1 on Nov 29, 2008 7:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Now THAT's compelling
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No Trade
When you’re integrating 4 rookies on an already young team, are 11-6, and are still missing the SF slotted to start this year, the idea that we “need” one of these players under discussion is, in my book, ludicrous. Frankly, Conley doesn’t impress me. Augustin is playing a better point right now, as is Sergio. I agree entirely with Dave’s take on this situation. This trade would be a gamble in the worst of times, and we’re not remotely having the worst of times right now. Dave may be right that KP let this develop some because of Sergio’s play me or trade me play demand, but even Sergio has to understand that right now, he’s an improving young and second team PG, but he’s still not at the point where he could start on most teams – if any. He could die just as easily in Memphis – as here, and maybe faster. Last year he was getting less than 10 minutes as game, now he’s up to almost 20. Some of his demand has been answered because of this own improvement. And now that he’s become an increasingly integral part of the Blazers, I suspect this will die down.
After all, let’s face it. He’s in the perfect position right now. If he continues to improve, he’s eventually going to have a shot at taking over that starting PG slot where Blake sits. And that will be for a solid and improving team. Where else could he do that?
Color me very skeptical.
I still say that KP is in the cat birds seat. He’s got a young team with plenty of talent and perhaps one of the two or three strongest second teams in the league. He’s watched Batum, Sergio and Fernandez all increase their trade value. He’s got Webster coming back, knowing that Websters injury enabled the Blazers to see what Batum could really do – and what he really did was surprise everyone. And he’s got LaFrentz.
The last thing he will do – make book on it – is make any moves like this one. If he’s going to trade – he’s going to clearly improve this team – and the longer this team plays together – the tougher its going to be to find that one player that can do it.
by Eben Calder on Nov 29, 2008 7:38 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
If he makes this trade
the ghost of Bob Whitsitsname is haunting KP.
by staylost on Nov 29, 2008 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The deal that made sense 10 games ago was Travis + Sergio + cash for Conley, with the Blazers trading 2-for-1 to a team with 14 guys on the roster and under the cap...
………………… However, I think the case has been made that teams don’t ditch their 4th quarter performers lightly, combined with the fact that Sergio has emerged as a superior passer whose lack of shooting ability from the perimeter inflicts minimal damage on the team due to a very manageable shot output.
The fact that the 3-for-2 deal emerges now is probably testimony that there was a deal in the works which is dead now.
t
"Now with a non-provocative footer!"
by timbo on Nov 29, 2008 8:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
And why would we want a 3-2, anyway?
We need to do quantity for quality, if we’re making any trades. We hardly need to make our minutes crunch worse. If we make any trades, it is for a significant quality upgrade at one position, not getting three back for two.
The only other kind of trade that makes sense, to me, would be to look at the minutes crunch and trade one of our surplus guys for a first round pick 2-3 years down the road. But you don’t want to trade away all your depth.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 8:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This rarely happens, but for once I have to almost completely disagree with Dave
Slight repost from the sidebar fanpost. What makes Conley valuable, and reasons why such a deal COULD be in the works:
- If this deal would go down it’s about as good as it gets regarding available PGs (no team gives up their full-grown star PG for us. Forget Harris. Forget Calderon)
- It’s not fair to completely discount his friendship with Greg as a factor in such a deal. That’s at least as important as Sergio-Rudy
- At 21 his age would be nothing but perfect to grow with our core group. No other available PG is in that group (Hinrich, Felton, …)
- He is no prodigy a la Rose, but he was a very high draft pick for a reason (and that reason is not just that Greg made his team good)
- Conley is a pass-first player who would fit very well into our system, especially on the second unit. He is very good at running our bred and butter half court sets yet can also break away on quicker plays
- The reason why he has not that many assists this year is pretty simple: O.J. Mayo is a Brandon-Roy-type player who handles the ball a lot in 40 minutes. Several players on his team can create for themselves, but no one is particularly good at moving without the ball. Yet with Rudy and Nic on the second unit he would have such players (apart from being not Spanish, I see next to no downside)
- Despite his slight slump this year, he turns the ball over even less than Sergio in much more minutes
- He is crazy quick, maybe only comparable to guys like TJ Ford, Rondo, Harris
- He is a bit small at 6-1, but has very good athleticism and vert → His father is a triple-jump Olympic champion, it runs in the family
- His outside shot is not good, but still at about Sergio’s “outside threat level”. And he penetrates much better.
- Good defensive skills, though Lowry is definitely better at this point which seems to be the main reason why Memphis wants to stick with him
A trade for a PG upgrade seems more likely:
The Blazers have three SFs who all appear to be solid yet not on a star level at the moment (potential logjam). The team has two make decisions which position to upgrade, with SF and PG the most likely. With the many rumors surrounding this position, maybe they have decided that PG is the way to go now (hint: There are more good forwards than good PGs in next years’ free-agency). Travis has more trade value on the market than Martell, which maybe paradoxically makes him more likely to be traded in a deal. That is not bashing Travis since he plays good for us, just an observation. It’s also not eliminating the possibility that RLEC plus Channing or some other combo could still be moved for a veteran SF.
Crittenton:
- He can still develop into a very good player (he is only 20!). Before the draft his upside was compared to Steve Francis due to his size, quickness and excellent playmaking ability (ball control, passing). His shot needs a lot of work.
- He can back up both the SG and the PG position
- He doesn’t cost a ton, making this a limited risk. $1,381,560 this year, $1,477,920 next year. The third year is a team option at $2,275,997
- If we find out he doesn’t develop and is stuck behind all other guards, that contract is very movable in a later deal
Hakim Warrick:
- Is an expiring deal, so another low risk proposition
- “Middle-aged” player at 26.
- Similar to Travis. A very athletic player stuck between SF and PF. No doubt Travis is better which is the reason the Grizzlies would be interested
- Warrick doesn’t have the strength to defend against major PFs
- Yet overall he would be no worse backup than Diogu or Shavlik (all of which are not major worries for this club)
- SF is the spot where a “log jam” is foreseeable. Martell and Batum can man the position and split the time going forward if Travis gets moved.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 8:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to mention this
Last year, Conley (and Lowry) had Pau Gasol and Mike Miller to pass the ball to. That’s almost an automatic assist. Now they can only feed young guys who at this point of their career are far less reliable scorers, while they are also still developing as point guards. Consider this when judging why Sergio might be a little better in terms of assists per minute this year.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sergio might be a little better in terms of assists per minute this year.
A little? Try nearly DOUBLE on for size (13.3 vs 7.1 per 48), and Sergio has a slightly better assist-to-turnover ratio as well.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Conley has 1.3 turnovers in 26 minutes. Sergio has 1.3 in 15
Both are good at protecting the ball. I think I made my case why I suppose Conley would have about Sergio’s assist numbers on the Blazers instead of on a team surrounded by guys who are a little unreliable. And he is more dangerous as a scorer himself.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this deal NEEDS to go down or that we would be instantly a great team because of it, I just think it would make sense. KP has talked about that getting a guy who is still on the rookie scale would be attractive on several occasions (e.g. on Courtside last summer), and Conley would fit that description.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
all i was pointing out
was that using the term “a little better” to describe a margin of almost 200% is a “a little” misleading, that is all.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 9:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it may have been
a good opportunity, at one point, for the Blazers to move 2 marginal players for what they thought might be a starting point guard…it solved some problems when Web comes back and also was easier to get done, given Sergio & Conley having the same agent (probably why this deal even got to the talking stages)…But for Portland, it is not as attractive as it once was….and I think several counter deals will arise for it to happen…Not ruling out the possibility of trading Outlaw for a draft pick….a first rounder from the Griz. would be attractive to the Blazers I guess some teams would like the same problem that Portland has….but the minutes at the 3 is a big problem….why ? Batum =the future 3 for the Blazers ( you can’t put him on the bench…he will be better for this team than Web or Outlaw) its way more important to move Web or Outlaw than it is Sergio….as far as Bayless goes? who knows….but this guy will never be a point guard and the conversion process might not be a good option for the Blazers….He’s an energy player and I would like to see them keep him, but there is not much room for getting him minutes
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If guys are getting assists
just because they have good players to pass to, then we might as well just keep the one we have. To make this trade, you’d have to justify that it is a substantive upgrade, not just someone who is going to get as many assists as Sergio once he gets good players to pass to.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not necessarily.
Scroll to the top and read my addition by subtraction trade proposal. You don’t have to get better if you are evening out the team and allowing young guys to develop. It’s not unheard of for GM’s to trade away players that coaches have love affairs with to develop the young guys. I think this is the crux of the trade KP forcing Nate’s hand.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Conley will develope as much
as Sergio behind Blake. If you want to develope Conley then its better for him to stay in Memphis where he starts.
And Oden, once again, is a rookie, so non-stop fast break basketball is like fast-forwarding a song while he's trying to learn the lyrics.
by RipCity on Nov 29, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Conley just needs to sit next to a couch
that Oden is laying on while the play PS3 games and get Oden out of his Seasona Affective Disorder funk. Conley is insurance if Bayless goes Postal or Sergio demands more minutes.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think so
Oden and Conley can play their PS3 during the summer. Now he needs to be playing and working on his game to get out of this funk. He needs more conditioning, that for sure. And I dont want to disrupt the team chemistry now. I want to see how things play out.
And Oden, once again, is a rookie, so non-stop fast break basketball is like fast-forwarding a song while he's trying to learn the lyrics.
by RipCity on Nov 29, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly why you don't pull the trigger on the trade:
Your 1st bullet point being:
If this deal would go down it’s about as good as it gets regarding available PGs (no team gives up their full-grown star PG for us. Forget Harris. Forget Calderon)
When you have to settle, then you begin making trades just for the sake of making trades.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 29, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for making a move to get an elite point guard
But nothing about Mike Conley suggests to me that he is or ever will be an elite point guard. I’d stick with Sergio and Bayless as projects over him.
by IntergalacticP on Nov 29, 2008 8:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Norsktroll
You made some valid points. But, let’s face it. If this deal were to happen, then there’d almost have to a second trade. We’d still have LaFrentz, and we’d have Blake, Conley, Crittenton and Bayless, along with Roy and Fernandez. Needless to say, Bayless won’t sit forever without playing time, and Conley and Crittenton want to play also. It’s just too many players at that spot.
by Eben Calder on Nov 29, 2008 8:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would do that deal without getting Crittenton
But Memphis has also a log-jam at PG (not even counting Jaric), so helping them resolve that might be part of the offer. And naturally we wouldn’t keep all these backup PFs around if we had Frye, Diogu, Shavlik, and Warrick.
I doubt there is a deal out there that brings us a good point guard (starter or backup) and small forward (starter) at the same time. So I would expect two moves to achieve this. Both could be trades, or one could be a free agent.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sergio has a role on this team
that I think ANY player would be hard-pressed to give him a run for. He is our second unit PG—he has truly made that role. I think if you give him the ball and 20+ minutes a night, he’ll be happy and we’ll be happy to have him. He fits this team and that unit perfectly, and has really made the holes in his game much smaller this season. Yes, his shooting is still struggling, but he takes very few shots in the first place, and his 3pt% is actually improving and he is really only 5% or so behind Blake. And defense, well,we’ve all seen it, dude has reinvented himself on defense, he is no longer a liability out there.
I’d think it would be insane and very un-KP-like to trade a player that has just shown us how much he can improve from one season to the next. Sergio is still only 22 years old folks.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 8:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Second unit PG
isn’t going to average 20+ minutes on this team, though. We’ll have at least 5 minutes of Roy+Rudy, which means there are only 42-43 PG minutes to go around.
If Sergio wants 20+ he’ll have to win the starter spot. Which he might actually do in a year or so (but Bayless is coming).
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he's been averaging that lately.
or close to it. i think he can get around 20 minutes and a little more when he is one fire, as he is occasionally.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
fyi, last 10 games
he has averaged 18.2 minutes and logged 20 or more in 4 games. He had 7 one game which dinged the average pretty hard.
if you’ve noticed lately, Nate hasn’t been playing Rudy + Roy w/o a PG lately much at all.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How many of those minutes were in total garbage time, though?
Maybe you’re right. If we keep blowing teams out….
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
a couple were, but a couple weren't
so I think it still holds.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
if you factor out blowout minutes entirely, he’s getting an average of about 15 “counting” minutes, minutes played in a part of the game that counts. I actually think he’ll be happy with 14-15 substantive minutes if there are also occasional blowouts when he gets more.
Guys aren’t happy if they only play in blowouts. But if someone is regularly playing 5-6 minutes or more in both halves of a game when it actually matters, he’s an important contributor. I think Sergio will be happy with that for a couple more years, especially if we’re winning like we are now. He might be happy with that kind of role long term, but I’m starting to think he might be a top 20 PG in a couple of years. If so, it would be hard to settle for such a limited role.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, agreed
i really only meant he’d be happy with that for the rest of this season. if he continues to improve and comes back next year with a better shot and better finishing skills, I’d think he’d expect a crack at starting , or at least getting around 24 minutes. after two more seasons, then I think he’d only be happy starting, IF he continues to develop.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we truly went
to a European-style rotation, where minutes are split pretty much evenly, he might not care about starting.
We could end up with that in a couple years, with Sergio and Bayless. I’ll be surprised, but it could happen. The talent level is there, and having the different looks at the point could make life really difficult for opposing coaches.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The deal 2 for1
Blazers best deal :Goes down only if Conley is projected as a starting point guard…..and then you would have to conclude if he is better than Sergio or Blake…..For sure Outlaw, is sugar for the team getting him and allows the Blazers to free up much needed space at the 3…..Batum is the real deal and they know it ( and I’m also sure they need his defense and energy, BBIQ,etc. way more than they need Outlaw)….IMO Outlaw is history at some point
So I say this deal gets done if it’s the 2 for 1(Portland’s best deal)but Memphis is looking to package some additional players ….Portland would be foolish to add players, when they are loaded with so many already with equal or better value…..(so would only make sense if there is a side deal going on or the Blazers other options)
bottom line : do the blazers think Conley is a starting NBA point guard ? otherwise no deal
The other problem is bigger than people think = log jam at 3…and the minutes to players to give yourself an opportunity to select the 2 you keep….(IMO)the only guy, that for sure, stays right now is Batum……..no doubt he is the future at the 3……
forget the friendship thing…it won’t help Odens game and if anyone thinks it will…..Well it would be quite a theory……that’s all there is to it…..
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 9:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If the friendship thing
was important to KP, we’d still have McRob.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point
I forgot he was on this roster. (And Indy.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Nov 29, 2008 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
IMO
Portland would make a 2 for 1 with Fry & Sergio…..because it still appears they are enamored with Outlaw (at least Nate is and they have vested 5 years in the guy)…….but Outlaw is a player that teams would like to have……- the IQ test
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm Ready to Trade Outlaw
With Batum developing well and rapidly, and if Martell comes back and plays with any level of consistency (I expect good things from him) and combined with Outlaw’s inconsistent and relatively unimproved play (he’s finally rebounding, but it took a scolding from his mother and 6 seasons for him to do that) I’m ready to say “it’s been a great ride, Travis, but your star isn’t rising here anymore”.
by Benjow on Nov 29, 2008 9:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Like Dave said...
Enough with this “Lets get Conley because he’s Greg’s friend” nonsense. If the Greg can’t learn to build chemistry with two above-average points in Sergio and Blake, what’s that tell you about the Greg?
NEWS FLASH: At this time, the Greg does not have any NBA caliber offense, thus, the effect of who’s in their at the point with him is negligible.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 29, 2008 9:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Since no one's quoted the Oregonian yet:
Pritchard: Outlaw isn’t going anywhere
An internet report Friday sent minor waves through the Blazers organization when it was suggested that Portland is contemplating a trade involving Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodruguez going to Memphis for Mike Conley Jr., Hakim Warrick and Javaris Crittenton.
Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard refuted the report before Friday’s game against New Orleans, saying “Travis is going nowhere.” In fact, Pritchard pulled Outlaw aside in the locker room before the game and told him face-to-face that he is not being traded.
“I like the team I have,” Pritchard said. “And really, right now is the quietest it has been (on the trade front) that I can remember.”
(I couldn’t find this online yet, but it was in the paper this morning.)
by Corvid on Nov 29, 2008 9:46 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
thanks for typing that up for us!
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Smokescreen! Smokescreen! ;-)
Thanks for the writeup
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Trade rumors
So this deal is to satisfy Sergio’s request to be traded ?(Arranged in sorts by the agent of Sergio and Conley) and Travis was sugar for Memphis…..So the easiest way to squelch a trade rumor is to glorify a player….but he didn’t glorify Sergio?……You can like the team you have KP,(so do I) but what’s in your future….you can’t put Batum on the bench……he’s as good and will be better for this team than Outlaw or Web….
I see this as a problem…not the worst problem in the world…but never-the -less a problem…someone in a 10 man rotation sits…..and if you want quality minutes you get with 8or 9 rotation at least 1 more sit……Plus you have a talent in Bayless who’s already sitting……This has to be addressed at some point
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so if you keep Outlaw
(which is surely questionable), then you would have to assume Fry sits Outlaw plays some 4 and Web some 2…….still minutes will disappear….no matter how you juggle…..insurance for injuries will not cut it for the young players we have…they want to play…….there has to be a plan, at some point, to move players…….So the Blazers standing pat, may be the best option for the staff, it won’t translate into happy players………Sitting & injured players have little trade value …unless they cut their losses and trade the contracts…..for future considerations….I expect KP will not stand pat in that sense….
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
got to keep outlaw
- he can play the 3 and 4
- his defense has improved, lots
- he’s one of 2, maybe 3 on the blazers who is clutch
by rburg on Nov 29, 2008 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
ugh
Not meaning to overvalue our players as we all tend to do that, but I am really having a hard time seeing that Conley has improved much. Not to say that he won’t but come on people he is playing for Memphis and as bad as they are and as good a spot up shooters as both Mayo and Gay are you are telling me he can’t create more? Really? Plus he has Marc Gasol who I am sure sets some mean picks which should free him to penetrate. How is he not doing better? Unless he’s not that good. Or still has a ways to go. He will get buried on the bench here. Buried.
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
by blazermaniac32 on Nov 29, 2008 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Dave I'm beginning to believe that what Wohnarowski reported is nice from Portland's angle
But I fail to see how this even helps Memphis. I realize from a Blazers’s perspective this doesn’t matter, but to make a deal, and the Grizz may try to get more for Conley than just that.
Travis Outlaw has a ton of abilities, and all that, but he isn’t all that useful to many teams out there save maybe San Antonio who could use a player of his caliber at the SF for relatively cheap.
I’m still of the belief that the Kings can make a better play for Conley, and I agree with you that Conley isn’t really enough of an upgrade (and neither is Rodriguez/Outlaw for Conley), that the Blazers see any real upgrade in this deal. I just don’t see it, but I do think the Grizz are trying to deal Conley for a deal that’s more to their liking. Which is why I proposed this awhile back, and to which I think makes better sense: Beno Udrih, Kenny Thomas, MIkki Moore for Mike Conley, Antonie Walker, Marko Jaric and the Kings 1st rounder (top 5 protected or so).
Also, I don’t really understand how Conley would make Oden better. His health is the only thing from him becoming a top level player in the NBA.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Nov 29, 2008 9:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Actually
it’s not even the health at this point. Now he’s shaking off the rust and remembering how to move again and learning how to move int he NBA.
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Short sidenote video: Mike Conley - ball handler
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNT00hIXjLs
Yeah, we don’t play with two balls in the NBA. But this guy could. He is ambidextrous like crazy. I have seen Blake dribble crossovers with his eyes closed, but this is also pretty special.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 9:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stop drinking the Conley cool-aid
I especially like what you said about him being a high draft pick for a reason. Ever heard of the concept of a bust?
I miss martell.
by OneTrickPony on Nov 29, 2008 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That really doesn't apply in this case. Not everyone can be a star, much less instant
Some guys are prodigies almost from the start (Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, …)
Some guys need time to develop to become one (Billups, Nash, Dirk, Kobe needed two years, hopefully Oden will be one)
Some players were taken too low and will still be stars (Danny Granger, Monta Ellis, Gilbert, …)
Some players are taken high and will be solid but not all-stars (Marvin Williams, Martell Webster, or Mike Conley)
Busts: Michael Olowokandi, Marcus Fizer, Pavel Podkolzine, Robert Traylor, Jon Koncak, Chris Washburn, etc.
Regarding the video, I just found that interesting, and didn’t want to open another construction site by making the nth post on the topic of a potential trade.
by Norsktroll on Nov 29, 2008 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree...
I completely agree with what’s been said so far.
What will Rudy think about us trading his only Spanish speaking compatriot away? We wooed Rudy so hard to get him to come over and obviously those two have a great relationship.
And to whoever suggested trading Blake, that is just a bad idea. The reason why Jerryd and Sergio don’t get more playing time is that they can’t hit the J with consistency.
As for trading Outlaw, I’m not sure this is a good idea anyways. Remember the Oregonlive article which talked about him bridging the gap between Roy and Aldridge? Also, he is generally the guy everybody likes in the locker room too…
Is Conley that important to Greg? He should really be able to get it going without having a tag along. He was the #1 overall pick. I don’t hear OJ Mayo asking for Bill Walker (high school/AAU teammates, best friends). Although in fairness, Oden hasn’t been lobbying for Conley either.
by crhsrunner on Nov 29, 2008 10:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I already said this is not gonna happen..
I know everything as all women do and this is not going to happen.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
by BlazerFan1 on Nov 29, 2008 11:19 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Good
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now THAT is a substantive argument
I dare any married man to disagree with it.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 29, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I always agree
just before dinner and within 4 hours of………………………..z z z z z z z z z z z ~…hard to plan that far ahead, ..
'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it
by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To this trade I say
BLEH!!!!
Also, there must be another party out there. I don’t see it. This team is starting to click and we interrupt it for MORE projects???
There’s always something else, and there HAS to be to consider this.
No more projects. The Blazers future is now.
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
by ratbastird on Nov 29, 2008 11:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yet another reason that doesn't make sense
Would making a play for Andre MIller if he becomes available something you think would help this team? (I say yes.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Nov 29, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This trade proposal sounds like one of those “How I turned $1 million in real estate into $25 cash” infomercials.
I’ll bet we could get at least four or five mediocre players for Brandon Roy.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Nov 29, 2008 12:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
THIS IS SUCH A BAD RTADE
we let rudy’s best friend go who i might add has been out-playing the starter …and is finally playing with confidence.Then we get back Conley !!!!REALLY???
Sergio is way better than Conley.Even if the trade goes through ARE we expecting him to be our backup pg,no way in hell when Bayless is on that bench.The only way i would like this trade is if its freeing up time for Bayless ,but its not.Then we give up Trout for Warrick?
why the fish would we want that?Trout is more skilled in like everything exept for maybe rebounding.THIS IS SUCH A BAD TRADE
if KP goes through on this deal ,i will hate him forever!!!
by blazerholic5 on Nov 29, 2008 1:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
no way jose
first off hakim warrick is just travis outlaw minus a three point shot. plus outlaw knows Nate’s system and is overall a better player, and unless KP sees in mike conely something more than someone who someday might be as good as steve blake, I say we veto, no way this trade goes down, is there any chance we go after bibby??
by StocktonNEP on Nov 29, 2008 2:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Why would we give up Outlaw just to swap back up PGs?
Prior to last night:
Conley 25.9 mpg, 38.3% FG (41.9% career), 20.0% 3-pt (30.6% career), 2.8 Asst/TO, 1.5 asst/10 minutes
Sergio 14.9 mpg, 33.3% FG (38.4% career), 29.6% 3-pt (28.9% career), 3.1 Asst/TO, 2.9 Asst/10 minutes
Blake 28.9 mpg, 43.6% FG (40.6% career), 41.9% 3-pt (40.9% last 2 yrs), 2.8 Asst/TO, 1.3 Asst/10 minutes
This is essentially a swap of back up PG’s that can’t shoot 3-pointers plus Outlaw for Crittenton and Warrick. No thanks.
"But we need a center", Inman said. "So play him at center!" Knight yelled back. - Bobby Knight on Michael Jordan prior to the Blazers' 1984 draft pick of Sam Bowie.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Nov 29, 2008 2:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
fyi
Serg is shooting 32% from the 3 so far this year. Hey, every % counts when you’re down there ;)
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
by sergioFTW on Nov 29, 2008 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
fyi
I said “Prior to last night” and my number is correct. More importantly however is that he WAS shooting 28.9% career and NOW is shooting 29.2% career (50-171), which is a bigger sample than just this year (9-28). I’d like to see him get up to at least 36% for this year if he is to remain our back up PG.
"But we need a center", Inman said. "So play him at center!" Knight yelled back. - Bobby Knight on Michael Jordan prior to the Blazers' 1984 draft pick of Sam Bowie.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Nov 29, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hello people!
The point of this trade is to get rid of Outlaw in a nice way, sending him to Memphis near his home, and getting someone who can provide a window into Oden’s thinking for the coaches. Outlaw is some kind of freakish athlete and can hit absolutely incredible shots. However, he is insanely inconsistent especially on defense and rebounding. His bball IQ is way way below average and he has already nearly lost us more then one game (Most obvious being the Minnesota game Monday). Batum needs minutes and he won’t get them when Martell comes back due to Nate’s Veteran’s only playing system. I bet you the reason this trade didn’t go through is Sergio being in it not Outlaw.
Finally, a friend for Oden who can help the coaching staff inspire/and read the inscrutable Oden could be invaluable. I’m shocked at how much people under estimate the importance of this! Oden would be more likely to stay in Portland with his buddy (the son of his agent no less!) then not. Also Oden is clearly having emotional issues. I haven’t seen him rise up once the way he did on David West during the first time we played the Hornets. He was playing great until the Golden State game when he had a huge game and then was lambasted by Abbot among others. He has the tools and he is getting his wind, now the problem is between the ears. It’s like would you have kept Shecky Grublemerker MJ’s childhood friend as the 15th man on the bulls if that was the difference between Jordan year 1 and Jordan year 7? That’s a freaking no-brainer! Who cares if it isn’t what you want to see from Greg right now (blah blah blah man up blah blah testosterone). If it re-injects confidence into Oden and gets him playing at top level for his current health you have to do it.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 3:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
To Timbo myself...
I want to say that Batum has been THE DIFFERENCE this year in our starting unit. Joel and Oden’s play has been great and is key but no player had made more of a difference to our starting unit then Batum. He is neck in neck with Rudy for best addition thus far this year (Oden will be the guy by the end of the season). If we deep 6 bench him then we will lose far more then the stat sheet shows. Outlaw must go.
He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants
by Idog1976 on Nov 29, 2008 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do we need a trade?
Let’s break this down by position:
PG
Starter: We have Blake, who is an adequate defender and a perfect compliment to Roy in that he doesn’t require the ball to be effective and is a dead-accurate shooter from midrange and especially from long range (this also compliments Oden/LMA).
Reserve: Sergio, who is blossoming right on schedule after a horrible sophomore slump and just totally thrives with the addition of Rudy and in the second unit in general. We’d be complete morons to split him from Rudy or trade him for a lesser prospect such as Conley, unless it was just an offer we couldn’t refuse. Obviously the sunken Yahoo deal wasn’t even close to that.
Scrub: Bayless, who in my opinion has a higher ceiling than Conley and could also become a great defensive role player (ala Batum) given time. We also have Kopponen, who might be a fantastic replacement for Blake as starter when Stevie’s motor starts to sputter in a few years. Due to Sergio’s resurgence as a rotation player, it will be between Bayless and Kopponen to duel for the starting role with the loser being shipped to another team for a better opportunity with more PT.
Final Verdict: Stand pat, keep developing Sergio, PK, and Bayless and eventually ship PK or Bayless depending on how well they fit in with Roy in the starting unit and with the team in general.
SG
Starter: Roy. Yeah I think we’re pretty good there.
Reserve: Rudy. Ditto.
Scrub: Don’t have one, don’t need one. Martell can slide over, as can Blake or Bayless if one of the above two go down.
Verdict: Again, stand pat. This is probably our strongest position next to Center. No need to change a thing.
SF
Starter: Batum for now, Martell in short time. Both are ideal prototypes for the position in the starting lineup, with a slight nod to Batum for overall potential and defensive prowess. A shocking, yet very welcome development in the early going. Both have yet to display consistency though Martell was promising just that in the off-season. None of us can wait to see him hold true to those promises.
Reserve: Outlaw. Dude was in the running for sixth man of the year last season and has actually improved somewhat but still shows some inconsistency. Provides incredible firepower off the bench making our second unit all but unstoppable and also provides clutch play and the ability to create his own shot anytime, anywhere.
Scrub: Will eventually be Batum once Martell returns, unless Outlaw slides to the 4 and relegates Frye to the pine with Diogu. Either way, we have a serious logjam at this position once Martell returns.
Verdict: Someone has to go. Batum is a keeper at 19 years of age with limitless potential and instant defensive energy that we absolutely need. That leaves Martell and Outlaw. Of the two, I prefer Martell but in light of this analysis I am beginning to see the argument in favor of Travis. Travis has always excelled off the bench and late in the game. It’s not clear that Martell could relish this role. I could see choosing Martell over Travis but I couldn’t see choosing Martell over Batum, who has shown us some efficiency from beyond the arc in addition to all the intangible brilliance we’ve seen already. Then again, Martell has displayed tremendous potential and work ethic and deserves another look before anything is done in this position. It’s also possible that giving Frye’s minutes to Outlaw could create enough minutes for Batum to keep him happy. Thus, our best option is to evaluate Martell’s performance both with the starting lineup and the second unit , cut Frye’s minutes, and leave it to KP to make the toughest decision on the roster: Martell, or Travis? Personally, I think it’s Travis that will leave, given his overall market value and the fact that we have made a pretty strong commitment to Martell by signing him to a four-year deal in the offseason. In this situation we could either gain a major impact player at another position or a wealth of future draft selections from a crappy team to keep us simultaneously in the lottery AND in the playoffs for a decade.
PF
Starter: LMA. Give it time, this guy’s an All-Star.
Reserve: Frye. A suitable backup that has regressed from the end of last season but still fits our overall team dynamic (shoots well, has length and height) very nicely. The fact that he duplicates the starter’s skill set makes him somewhat expendable, and in light of our logjam at SF and Outlaw’s ability to slide to the 4, Frye’s minutes are the most vulnerable on the team.
Scrub: Diogu. A nice reserve to have in case of injury. Provides rebounding and toughness and could contribute. Unlike Frye, Ike provides some contrast at this position to the tall long and relatively soft interior presence of LMA and Frye.
Ultra-scrub: Shav. Man, we are deep at this position. Shav could also pass for a very tall SF. A very capable backup with experience but is basically only insurance in case of injury.
Verdict: Due to contractual reasons, namely Frye’s potential for damaging our capspace this summer, he is a very likely candidate for a trade. Other than that we are simply wet at this position, like we are at all the other ones.
C
Starter: GO. Like LMA, a future All-Star. Just give him time.
Reserve: Pryz. Best back-up center in the league. Even deserves some mention for the All-star game with his phenomenal play so far this year, and sixth man of the year recognition at the very least.
Scrub: No legitimate third-string center, though LMA and Frye can both slide over in case of foul trouble and injury, making our depth at the PF spot a very useful luxury to have.
Verdict: Stand pat. We have the best backup in the league and the best center prospect in ten years as our developing starter.
Summary
This team is extremely loaded and requires little, if any tweaking. I see no need to bring in a major impact player from another team or free agency, unless you consider our PG position to be a significant weakness (in light of Blake’s and Sergio’s recent play I do not). The biggest problem was obviously the logjam at SF, for which we have a reasonable short term solution (cut Frye’s minutes for Batum), and a potential long term solution (trade Martell or Travis for an upgrade at PG, a few extra scrubs, or draft picks and cash).
The way we have been playing so far this year, it appears that’s all KP needs to do. Frye is almost certainly a goner due to cap space implications and a redundant skill set. Martell or Outlaw most likely will have to go to make room for the development of Batum as our future starter, which is addition by subtraction, so draft picks are probably the best type of commodity we can get in return.
God knows we don’t need any more talented players to divide up our minutes.
"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"
by broggerboy19 on Nov 30, 2008 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you're trying to say...
but even though we don’t NEED a trade, doesn’t mean we’re better off not making a trade. Let me do this as simply as I can…
Rankings (out of 100)
PG: Blake (79) / Sergio (78) / Bayless (78) / Koponen (67)
SG: Roy (94) / Rudy (86)
SF: Webster (81) / Outlaw (81) / Batum (80)
PF: Aldridge (89) / Frye (74) / Diogu (70) / Randolph (67)
C: Oden (88) / Przy (81) / Freeland (68) / LaFrentz (68)
Lets just for example assume that each player can play an average of 30 minutes per game effectively. That means to cover an entire game (assuming no injuries) we’d need 8 players to do it. Currently we have 13 players that could easily be earning minutes on other NBA rosters. We have 5 players overkill, or once again accounting for injury 3 (at the very least). Trading multiple 70-80 ranked players for an 85ish ranked player would be in the best interest of this team. Substitute 30-35 minutes of that 75-80 ranked player for an 85 ranked guy, and we come out a much better team. This is the whole idea behind all the trade talks around here. Of course we’re good, maybe even Championship good (eventually), but that doesn’t mean we can’t get better. That is our GM’s job, and it just so happens our guy has a track record of making better happen. You can like the team we have now, and all its players, but we don’t have to settle.
by as11osu on Nov 30, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who's settling?
I think I advocated that we make at least one move to improve the roster, but until I know who this “85 ranked guy” might be (Vince Carter? Starbury? Tayshaun Prince?), I would try to improve the roster by trimming it down without deep-sixing its greatest attribute: D-E-P-T-H.
If you trade multiple role players for one All-Star caliber guy, which is what I think you were suggesting, then you are putting a lot of stock into one person to be your missing piece, when it’s far more likely that one of the 2 or 3 talented young players that you already have could step up into that role.
I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your premise, but I’m not for shaking up the roster just for shaking it up’s sake. If your team is displaying chemistry with a particular assembly of talent, I say you roll with it until something proves itself amiss.
With the exception of the emerging SF logjam, I see this team as being the perfect construct of a diabolical basketball mastermind (Jedi Pritchard). Every rotation player we have fills some specific niche of a traditional championship contender, whether it be a defensive stopper on the perimeter, an outside shooter, or a shot-blocking interior presence. Some of the players that you have numerically tagged as a “79” or “80” actually have a higher value to the team, in my opinion, due to their ability to fit into a specific role (such as Blake’s, Batum’s, or Sergio’s).
There is something to be said for keeping in mind the big picture and the sum of all your parts, and not just the overall value of an individual piece or how one additional piece might impact your team.
Then again, if you have a trade for a specific player or players in mind, even if it were hypothetical, I think we could have more than just a generic philosophical discussion about this issue.
"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"
by broggerboy19 on Nov 30, 2008 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Grublemerker was a straight up baller in college.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Nov 29, 2008 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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