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Lets put an end to this trade Travis talk

Looking across the forums and the internet, so many people are thinking that Travis will be the most likely to be traded  if there is a trade. 

 

Now the only reason that Travis would be traded is if there is a trade for a top flight PG on the table and Travis is the missing talent piece to go along with RLEC, however a large trade includint a Harris or Parker is very unlikely to come IMO. 

 

However from a team standpoint, Travis is one of the most valuable and integral players on the team, moreso than Webster who will be the first SF to be traded and here is why. 

 

1. Everyone says that Travis is a "black hole" that once he gets the pass he dribbles around and has only one thing on his mind: getting his shot off. However the stats prove otherwise:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

Travis' usage percentage is actually 6th on the team very close to Rudy's which means that when Travis is on the court, he is used about the same as Rudy

 

2. Martell is 6'7 225 and swings more of a 2-3 and Travis is 6'9 215 and swings 3-4 so lets take a look at who we have at the 2 and 3

from top to bottom, best to worst

2:

Roy

Rudy

Webster

Bayless

3:

Travis/Martell/Nic

to me there is no clear cut differential between Travis and Martell and some may claim Nic, as they all bring different things to the table. 

however looking traviis and the 3-4 lineup it goes as follows

 

3:

Travis/Martell/Nic

4:

LMA

Travis 

Frye

which in conclusion means that Webster will be locked into the 3 position and will have to battle Rudy and Roy for any 2 minutes if he gets any at all while Travis is already used as a 4 smoetimes and actually does well as a 4 and can compete as the #2 PF with Frye. 

Travis allows us to be a more versatile team with more lineups to throw at opposing teams. 

 

 

3. Martell does not fit in any place. Where does he fit? with the 1st team as a shooter or on the second team as a shooter? That is pretty much all he does and even that he is only a .372 career 3ot shooter. True he did develop a little bit of an extended offensive game last year but many times he still relied on his 3pt shot. His entire game is based on something that has a 37%chance of going in. 

Travis actually had a better 3pt shot % last year and has worked hard on his 3pt shot over the offseason and is currently hitting over 50%. 

Now you may say "well last year Travis did have a better 3pt % but he only attempted 1/3 of his attempts" Ok so that may be true last year but this year Travis is on pace to TAKE 25% fewer 3pters but MAKE as many as Webster did last year. 

Overall it is pretty much obvious that Travis' O game is much more refined than Websters and if O is needed on the court Travis sohuld be the SF of choice.  D is a wash between Travis and Webster as both have their pluses and minuses, Webster tends to be a bit better on the ball but Travis is much better sas a help defender ala Kirilenko coming from the weak side to block shots, which leads me to my next point.

To me I think it is farily obvious that Nic is our best perimiter defender as the other night he was a large factor in holding Wade to only 12 pts, even with the quickness disadantage, his length more than made up for it and he is only a rookie to boot. 

I can say with confidence that is Nate wants do put a D team on the court Nic will be his first choice, does anyone disagree?

Nic is starting because of his d and more importantly his abilityto make an impact without needing to take a shot. Add to this the fact that he is hitting 3pt at a better rate than Martell and that leads me to think that he is the best fit @ starting SF. 

So in short, what is Webster better than either Travis or Batum than? He is not better than travis at O and is not better than Batum on D. 

 

4. Some will say that "Webster just signed a new contract so he is not going anywhere"

Actually that makes him more tradeable in the fact that previous to this Martell did not have a number attatched to him so far as trading  purposes go. Now that he has a contract  that is very reasonable for a player of his skill level, that makes him more tradeable than before. 

 

All in all besides the point that unless a top tier pg is in play, Travis should not be going anywhere, especially for a 2nd 3rd string pg such as Conley. As much as it sadens me I would guess Frye would be the one moved and Travis would slide over to the backup PF and then ading in Webster and RLEC to upgrade pgs allowing Batum to play more minutes and TO to play more. 

 

The bottom line is Travis is more valuable than Webster and is not going anywhere. 

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I totally disagree man!

Webster is more valuable to us because he will defend EVERY time. Travis seems to have improved his defense but still picks and chooses when to play hard defense. Its got be 100% all the time.

by VinnyB on Nov 28, 2008 8:02 PM PST reply actions  

Actually last year

Travis had a much better D win share and a better d rating

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2008.html

Even if we were comparing D between Travis and Webster Travis’ O far outweighs any percieved deficiency that he may have.

It appears that you did not even read my post as you are picking out Travis’ supposed D defiency and not even listning to what I was saying:

If we need D we will go with Batum as he is the best of the 3 and has the shot to at least rival Webster, making his starting position in jeopardy. We do not need another shooter in the 2nd unit as we have Frye and Rudy, we need a slasher and someone who can create his own shot which Webster cannot do and Travis can.

You still have not said anything other than “TO does not play D all the time”

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 28, 2008 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Fun with stats.

When you’re using defensive win shares and rating for individuals as your only criteria for who is a better defender, something is wrong.

I can just as easily point out that when he was playing SF, opposing SFs averaged a 19.9 PER compared to a 16.6 for when Martell was playing SF last year. Also consider that we gave up roughly 4.5 points less per 100 possessions with Outlaw off the court versus Outlaw on the court ( the number is .9 for Webster).

http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR9D.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR7D.HTM

Part of using stats to argue a point is knowing their limitations. There is an actual deficiency in Travis’s defense. It’s not as bad as people seem to think sometimes, and he’s improved this year, but he’s still light years behind Batum and Webster in that department. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with PT when Webster gets back, but it’s really to early in the process to say that one or the other definitely needs to be off the table for a trade. I’d hate to see either go, but that’s the business sometimes.

by Royster on Nov 28, 2008 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Its in the cards

that Fry, Outlaw or Web…that order (IMO)…. this love affair with Travis clouds the picture …..the guy wanted to start or be traded anyway……get it done…..you put Batum on the bench and it’s a huge mistake….He’s better than Outlaw or Web…We don’t need the offense…we need defense
  also stats are for coaches to emphasize certain aspects of the game…this is almost always done in the context of team play rather than individual play… they paint a pretty picture for the media and people that think they can analyze basketball (in particular a player) by not watching the game.

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Nov 29, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I disagree.

Frye and Outlaw are the most likley to get moved by a mile.

The majority of people predicted that Jarrett Jack and James Jones were the most likely to leave last year and look how that turned out.

I want to put points on your face.-Rudy Fernandez

by Winchester on Nov 28, 2008 8:16 PM PST reply actions  

Sergio

Is the one who got the no trade guarantee buddy. Not Bayless.

by TheGreatDane17 on Nov 28, 2008 10:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Bayless has no trade value... "buddy"

Bayless hasn’t played meaningful minutes. He will not be traded unless it’s a deal breaker and we’re getting a nice player in return. Sergio has a proven trade value and is more likely to be trade at this point.

by Bust a Bucket on Nov 28, 2008 10:20 PM PST up reply actions  

An increase in Sergio's minutes...

could be because the Blazers are shopping him.

I’m just sayin’.

"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 28, 2008 11:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Calm down everyone...

I think Spyder “JR” Ryder might be Outlaw’s gf. All he has done recently is say that we shouldn’t trade Outlaw.

Outlaw is a nice player, but it’s obvious that he doesn’t seem to be a long-term fit for the Blazers. However, I’ll leave that judgment up to KP (who recently signed Martell to a 4 year extension).

Spyder has some valid points, but he’s basically trying to ignore the inevitable. Since Outlaw has spent his whole career in Portland, I’m not surprised to see some hardcore Outlaw fans outraged by trade rumors. Let’s let give them respect and let the chips fall where they will.

by Bust a Bucket on Nov 28, 2008 9:31 PM PST reply actions  

By signing Martell to the 4 year contract the only thing that does is

remove his cap hold if KP wants to make a move this upcoming summer. Add to the fact that he is signed to a very reasonable contract why would KP NOT sign Webster for less than the MLE? Actually I not even a hardcore Travis fan as I am not impressed with Webster at all and see Travis and Batum as perfect yin/yang SF rotation and do not see where Webster fits in.

What is he more than an athletic shooter? He is not as good offensively as Outlaw yet not as good defensively as Batum.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 28, 2008 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not here change your mind...

I’m calling for others to not jump all over you for your post.

Like I said, you have valid points about Outlaw. I’m not going to argue with you about who we should keep. I was joking about you being Outlaw’s gf.

If you guys want to talk about the SF position, how about Batum recently? Damn, he’s looked good.

by Bust a Bucket on Nov 28, 2008 10:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Here is what I am saying:

Yes Batum has looked very good and is exactly what I and many others have been calling for in a starting SF, great D, and an ability to make a 3pt shot at anytime whether he has not taken one all game or it is his 5th in a row.

Much of the players mentioned as the “final piece” have been players like Prince and Battier, glue guys that make the rest of the team better, but do not require shots or plays run for them.

With these pre-requisites, Batum fills in perfectly with the starting unit, does he not?

the former position held by one Mr Webster.

Now that Webster is not the starting SF, lets take a look at who fits better with the 2nd unit.

Travis has shown a great deal of comfort in coming off the bench and being the focal point of the second unit is a strength for him, especially with players such as Rudy and Sergio who know how to pass. The 2nd unit is also made up of people who are for the most part jumpshooters with Frye and Rudy. Neither of them can create their own shot putting an added premium for a player who can create their own shots, which on the 2nd unit Outlaw is the only player that can, would you agree with that?

Webster has NEVER shown any aptitude in creating his own shot so we would be left with

Sergio
Rudy
Webster
Frye
Pryzbilla

in addition only Roy and TO have the ability to create their own shot, Roy with the starters and TO with the 2nd unit.

Making TO one of the more valuable players on the team and the key to the 2nd unit.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 28, 2008 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm just as happy to end ALL the trade talk.

We’re 11-6. We’ve won ten out of out last 13. Do we even need to make a trade?

Poor grammar is poor communication.
Poor communication causes misunderstanding.
Misunderstanding causes fighting.
Fighting causes war.
War causes death.
Therefore, your poor grammar may just kill us all.

(One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season)

by T Darkstar on Nov 28, 2008 9:33 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Improvement

Always good to keep improving if possible. Even a championship team needs to stay ahead of the competition.

by colganc on Nov 28, 2008 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

No, we don't need to make a trade!

rec

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
It is Official! LMA is BACK!!!
29:20 Mins 8-13 FGs +23 3 Off 7 RBs 1 Ast 1 Blk 17 Points - LMA vs N.O. 11-28-08

by LaMarvelous on Nov 29, 2008 9:01 PM PST up reply actions  

It Really depends on how webster comes back,

but it seems to me that it wont be that hard to outplay outlaw.
I think that Batum is basicly a lock to stay with us because he is probably more important to us than any other team. & alot of other reasons too…..

Outlaw will never start for us. He showed that he is way better coming off of the bench.
I have watched outlaw very closely recently, and i crinng everytime he goes up for the shot. i could see him playing more at power forward if frye isnt playing well, but he has been, and has much of the same problems being that they are jump shooters.
 
The stats really dont show how poor of a defender he is, he has just been getting lost. Keep in mind that Webster was starting and going up against much better players than outlaw, often going up against star players regularly.

It seems that batum adds alot more to the game and can easily replace trout the 6 year vetran as a rookie. And the same goes for webster, he looked good in his preseason game, and worked really hard. This could be somewhat of a breakout year for him. Outlaws position will become much more aparent when web returns, luckily we dont have to wait much longer, if I had to put my money on someone as our other sf, i would bet that Webster can beat out trout, which makes him expendable.

by raging WebTed on Nov 28, 2008 9:51 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

One of the best things to of happend to Webster is that he was injured

as it seems that there are so many impatient fans this year that are calling for every players head that has a few bad games.

People were calling for Blakes head after a few games and people would of been doing the same if Webster would of been playing.

He has the added benefit of having the last game that he played in being a blowout and him being helped by the solid play of Rudy as almost half of his buckets came off of alley oops or great passes by Rudy.

In turn Travis has gone through a brutal schedule and had a tough time. You will see when Martell comes back that same player that will be unable to hit his open shot until he has multiple plays called for him and with this team that wont work.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 28, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree.

I don’t understand why people are saying we shouldn’t have another decent to great perimeter defender in Martell (that is his range of play) at the 3. I mean is it a bad thing that we have two great defenders at center? Ask New Orleans about their options in our paint. On ball defenders are always better for a team then weakside help defenders. Shutting down the perimeter is a key to any championship team and having it two deep is wonderful. Outlaw’s basketball IQ (See his attempt to snatch defeat from the jaws on victory Monday in the game against Minnie) and inconsistent effort on defense/rebounds. Now I think this is all moot until Martell gets back unless KP knows something we don’t.

On the trade itself I think it’s worth considering but would almost prefer to trade Blake rather then Sergio. From an experience perspective as opposed to a talent potential outlook it would make more sense to trade either Sergio or Bayless. Finally, the key to this trade would be to bring Conley in to motivate and relax Greg. If you achieve the Oden objective the rest is just gravy. Also, as our 2nd or 3rd string point guard (let Conley battle it out with Bayless) to eventually replace Blake you could do worse then Conley. All in all this trade is addition by subtraction (Outlaw) and bring along potential and a close friend for Oden. GO seems to be inscrutable and having a close friend of his around to motivate and cheer up Greg could be invaluable. Pull the trigger KP.

He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants

by Idog1976 on Nov 28, 2008 10:53 PM PST up reply actions  

by the way

I eventually see Bayless in the starting unit leaving either Blake or Sergio as the captain of the second team. If Sergio is traded I think it would eventually (x number of years) be Bayless and 2nd unit guard Conley.

He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants

by Idog1976 on Nov 28, 2008 11:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I have to Timbo myself

but P.P.S SpyderRyder is one of my favorite posters around here I just don’t agree with him this time.

He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants

by Idog1976 on Nov 28, 2008 11:15 PM PST up reply actions  

u kidding me?

travis is our biggest trade asset and isnt needed since we have batum and webster

get MIKE CONLEY!!!

"im a buffet of goodness"-Channing Frye

by burritoman on Nov 28, 2008 10:13 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

i'm happy we just won

and i think all of the active blazers have their place. when martell comes back we’ll see how he fits in.

i know: Duh!

ignacio

by ignacio on Nov 28, 2008 10:20 PM PST reply actions  

KP's street cred...

If KP were to trade Martell soon, he would lose all of his street cred and no agent would ever want to deal with him again.

I mean seriously, you would have to be a real jerk to sweet talk your soon to be restricted free agent into a four year extension, and then turn around and dump him. This is KP, not Whitsitt.

With Outlaw on the other hand, you are doing him a favor by trading him. Send him back east someplace where he can jack up a zillion shots and try to prove that he is as good as Carmelo as he claims, and then he can turn that into a mega-extension like he wants.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Nov 29, 2008 12:46 AM PST reply actions   4 recs

rec

That reminds of how Outlaw thought he should be an All-Star when J. Quick visited Mississippi this summer.

I’m sure Memphis would love to have a gun-slinging SF who will jack up a zillion shots and be Melo-esque.

by Bust a Bucket on Nov 29, 2008 1:01 AM PST up reply actions  

yeah just like he traded Freddie Jones who was from Gresham AND took a paycut to come here and play

for us, not to mention Mr Battle Ground and letting go of a fan and team fav Ime, all three were local products even more so than Webster.

So that means nothing.

You seem to of forgotten those deals.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 29, 2008 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

I doubt Travis is traded. But I disagree about a couple of things...

First of all, Martell is a Base Year Compensation player, making his contract harder to trade. Not impossible, but harder.

Players getting their own shot, on this team, is an over-rated ability. That term gets tossed around alot, but what it means is creating something one on one. This team has incredibly high assist numbers/made shots, which suggests that they find the open man and knock down those open shots. We already have 3 guys that can draw a double-team and leave someone else open. Someone getting their own shot was helpful last year, less so this year. Martell has better assist numbers, making him a good fit for the current offense.

Martell fits well with the first unit. Travis did not and went back to the bench. If you trade Martell and Batum is injured, that puts Travis back into the starting lineup – bad news. That fact that Travis can back up the 4 makes Frye expendable, not Martell. And since Frye may walk at the end of the year as a RFA, there’s plenty of room for both Travis and Martell, so I agree with you there.

Martell looks content with his role. Travis expressed over the summer that he wanted minutes and shots equal to Roy and Aldridge, which isn’t going to happen. So will he be content with his role? This may also play a factor…

Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Nov 29, 2008 1:08 AM PST reply actions  

Martell is not a BYC player as he did not get a raise of 20%

in fact he is actually making about the same as this year so no BYC is in effect.

Secondly, its a bit disingenuous predicting if and when a player gets hurt as a reason to trade or not to trade a player, so that line of reasoning holds no weight.

Lastly it has been Webster who has been the starter and is moving into a new role with the emergence of Batum in the starting lineup, and even with all the noise Travis made during the summer, this will be his 2nd year in his 6th man role which he seems to already relish. If you go back and listen to what Quick ha to say afterwards about Travis, he said that Travis was just musing about getting AYCE shots, not demanding.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 29, 2008 11:36 AM PST up reply actions  

I am going to put one more thing in this post before I close it out.

This is my call for the future:

By Jan 17th, the last day that RLEC can be traded and his receiving team can get his $$ relief this year, a few things will happen:

1. Martell will be back in uniform and will be either starting or coming off the bench as the SF. Roy and Rudy pretty much have the SG position filled to the max and Webster cannot play PF at all, even on a small lineup. We will see his decent 3pt shooting and lack of overall O game come out again in addition to his lack of defensive skill. He will once again simply float out to the 3pt line and sit waiting for a pass out adding nothing to the O.

2. Travis should be staying at the same # of minutes as of the fact that he will be on the court to close the game as he has earned the trust of Nate in the 4th Q with his clutch play down the line in addition to the fact that he can pick up some additoinal minutes with his ability to play the 4. His outside shooting and fit with Sergio, and Rudy on the 2nd unit will allow him to play more with the 2nd unit as well so his minutes should not drop too much. He will come in halfway through the 1st for 7-8mins, play a handful in the 3rd Q, will be put in the last 7-8 mins @ SF and will take 5-6 mins from Frye.

3. Frye will see a drop in his minutes but not as much as some may think as he is still 6’11 250 and there is no substitute for that type of size even as soft as he may be. He should go from 15mpg to about 10-12, those minutes will largely go to Trout.

4. Batum will see a drop in his minutes going from about 15 to about 7-8 as he is a rookie and should be left out in Nates mind as he has a bit of a hesitancy to start rookie and play them big minutes. Many people, myself included, will gripe continuously on this site and on other forums and boards, “Why is Nate NOT playing Batum over Webster!! FIRE NATE!!!” Our D will sputter with Martell in there and when Batum comes in the teams +- will go up.

In the end Batum and Frye will lose minutes and people will see how much better the team plays with Batum in the starting lineup rather than Webster and how little he adds with the emergence of Batum and his D and Travis and his improved outside shot and D, and dont take my word for it take Nate’s and if any players are moved it will be Martell, Frye, PG and RLEC for a starting quality PG leaving

PG: PG1, Sergio/Blake/Bayless
SG: Roy, Rudy
SF: Batum,, TO
PF: LMA, TO, banger PF (Freeland next year??)
C: Gregzilla

We allow Batum to play 28+mins and spread TO with 20 sf and 8 pf minutes

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 29, 2008 5:00 PM PST reply actions  

That would be great.

Webster’s new contract makes him more tradeable and Outlaw seems to be stepping up his defense a little. Freeland seems to be doing well and we still have a billion second round picks.

I want to put points on your face.-Rudy Fernandez

by Winchester on Nov 29, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions  

You should definitely make this a fanpost sometime near Jan 17...

it would be interesting to see how good a prognosticator you are.

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
It is Official! LMA is BACK!!!
29:20 Mins 8-13 FGs +23 3 Off 7 RBs 1 Ast 1 Blk 17 Points - LMA vs N.O. 11-28-08

by LaMarvelous on Nov 29, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions  

one for one so far

http://www.blazersedge.com/2007/12/19/181434/04

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Nov 29, 2008 11:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Good call.

I want to put points on your face.-Rudy Fernandez

by Winchester on Nov 30, 2008 1:54 AM PST up reply actions  

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