Oden and Portland's Team Defense

As I said, the difference in (conditional) means would pass a standard test of statistical significance, even with the small sample size. There are six games without Oden. It passes such a test because the difference is so large.

To make the argument that sample size is a problem, you have to argue that the observations are not independent and identically distributed, that there is temporal dependence such that a standard test of statistical significance is not valid.

There are three reasons that I do not think the time trend or sample size is a particularly large concern. One, the Blazers’ defense at the start of the season is pretty similar to what it was during all of 2007-2008. There are a few changes to the roster between this year and last, but the Blazers were, nonetheless, playing vary similarly on defense at the start of this year as they did at the start of last year. Two, there is one observation where Oden played at the start of the season, against the Lakers. If you look at that observation in the graph above, it is actually below the fitted line. If there were a time trend, you’d expect it to be above the line. Three, the first Miami game is almost exactly on the fitted line, further indication that a time trend is not driving the results.

Honestly, I think the biggest issue with this analysis is injuries to opponents. I can try to address the effect of the Spurs having Parker, the Kings missing Martin, the Jazz having Boozer, the Suns having Shaq, the HEAT missing Marion, etc. but it’s gonna be predict rough. Basically, I would need to do what I just did for the Blazers and Oden’s for all of those teams, which would take more time than I want to spend.

Oden is taking minutes away from Frye, a few from Pryz, and maybe a few from Outlaw and Fernandez. So, with Oden, the Blazers are getting a more active Pryzbilla and Oden playing center instead of Frye or Aldridge. It’s not really rocket science why that improves team defense, but I think it’s interesting to look at the evidence off the magnitude of the effect.

The Blazers effort and experience wasn’t enough to improve their D last year. Improvement may play a role, but not anything close to this dramatic.

For instance, regardless of how much effort or experience Frye and LMA have, they are not good rebounders. So the Blazers have trouble ending defensive possessions when Pryz is out of the game. But with Oden, they don’t. That alone could dramatically improve defensive efficiency – and it’s solely personnel based, not based on improvement or effort.

Undoubtedly, Oden’s blocks/intimidation also improve the D – and again, it’s not that he’s better than Pryz at those things necessarily, but that he’s MUCH better than LMA and Frye. So with Oden in the rotation, the Blazers always have a big defensive center to dissuade penetrators from driving, change shots, and send a few of them back the other direction.

Again, nothing to do with experience or effort. It’s having two dominant centers rather than one center and a lineup of relatively soft PFs. Big, big difference.

to polisam’s and together they both make tons of sense….what i mean is, if you choose to invalidate the statistical data (or simply not use it) this opinion (by polisam)is a great analysis and is an element of thought that lends support to his post;

Two, having Oden in the line-up can affect how the team plays when he is out in the game as well as when he is on the bench. As is becoming increasingly obvious, Pryzbilla can play much more aggressively when he plays limited minutes because he does not have to worry as much about foul trouble and has more energey. In addition, when Oden plays, Frye is more likely to defend PFs rather than Cs, which is a big improvement.

 So I agree with both of you …….added together, both thoughts, are probably good reasons to be encouraged by better defensive play of late and in the future
   Defense is such an important part of basketball, it can never be overlooked….good defense can get your offense in high gear and as they get more consistent on defense, the offense gets a whole lot easier along with it (easy hoops)…..it simply opens up the floor and gets things moving. (IMO). good defense will always be the x factor that will decide what levels this team can reach
   One other note: Batum is giving the defense a new look as well, and he could be contributing more to the defensive mindset than people think….They looked at him as a good team defender and for a young kid, he’s doing quite well