Greg Jayne with Plusses and Minuses
by Dave on Nov 25, 2008 10:10 PM PST
42 comments
For everybody talking about Oden's effect on the team, especially using the plus-minus stat, Greg Jayne of the Columbian is your mainstream media hook up. He's compiled the data so far and it's not pretty. The sample is still short but at least he's using all of the games. Check it out if you want to build your case further. Personally, I'm still waiting and will be for, like, at least a year and a half.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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My guess is that this will do nothing but help Oden feel comfortable.
I mean, with all of this positive attention around him, how could he not?
It’s easy to say that he’ll be fine at some point down the road… but when does it become a concern that he suffers from a serious lack of confidence? With story after story about how his production is underwhelming and he is more – than +, at some point that has to have an impact… right? The guy isn’t oblivious to all that’s said about him.
Here’s hoping that he continues to bust his chops and that he holds his head high long enough for the hard work to bear fruit.
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 25, 2008 10:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No matter how you slice it
10% of one season in which he’s a rookie and coming off of surgery and has a huge bullseye on his chest for every opposing center—a season in which his team is also adjusting to a new routine in a myriad of ways, including having a big guy in the deep post to pass to for the first time in forever—is not enough to make a firm judgment. I think it’s fair to say Oden doesn’t look comfortable out there most of the time. I think it’s fair to say when he is comfortable he looks devastating. I just don’t bother too much with the overall analysis of how he fits into this team right now because:
A. That’s still a work in progress.
And…
B. It assumes that “this team” will be “this team” in the future, when it clearly won’t. Personnel will change, sure, but also playing styles and chemistry and offensive AND defensive emphases. We’re not seeing the team we’ll see two years from now and we wouldn’t be even if Oden didn’t exist. How he fits in with that future team will be far more important than how he’s fitting in during his first ten games in the league. And I think it’s fair to say that the two-years-from-now Blazers have a chance to be much more special because Oden is here.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 25, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree witth your points above in theory
however, I think there is too much emphasis on the future of this team, more seen in the media than from the team perhaps. Such an emphasis may lead to an under-estimation of current problems. I don’t know the balance between these 2 extremes of present and future. We’ll have problems of hopefully a different nature in the future. There will always be problems. Yet, we can’t always cast each year as rebuilding – there ought to be some measure of improvement and I think this is where the frustration stems,
by hotstuffdb22 on Nov 26, 2008 5:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing
The future is impending. We’re not talking 4-5 years down the road. You should see serious improvements by this time next season and everything should be smoothed out the season afterwards. One year is not a long time for a shakedown cruise, especially when the team is already playing four guys pretty decent minutes who weren’t on the team or weren’t getting any last year.
If you read back even to when Greg was drafted, I have always said, “Give the team one year to work out the kinks and get back to the playoffs, one more year to figure out they’re really good at this, then the sky’s the limit.” This is the year we work out the kinks and get back to the playoffs. It would have been last year, but Oden’s injury set the timetable back. The fact that we’re going to get to the playoffs in a crowded Western Conference while we’re still working out who we are should speak volumes about how good this team has a chance to be. And Oden is a part of that, as are the other new guys who are mandating these adjustments.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 26, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you from this perspective...
basically you see a 2 year window, and I think this is logical -
by hotstuffdb22 on Nov 26, 2008 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rather a two-year ramp-up
to a ten year window of winning and contending.
Really too, when you look at the ratio like that you become aware of how special this team has a chance to be. For most teams it’s the reverse. They spend 10 years trying to get in position for a 2-3 year run. (90’s Blazers, Seattle following, the Jazz too…) Many don’t even get that.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 26, 2008 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll reinterate what I said in the off-season...
This kid is a MULTI-year project. He’s not a “Give him the starting job and a few months of PT and he will magically morph into a world beater” type of player. I see his time frame for improvement to parallel the likes of Martell Webster’s: inconsistency sprinkled with flashes of brilliance for his first 2-3 seasons.
Mentally, I’m wondering who Greg wants to become better for? You, me, and everyone else who’s “counting on him”. Or himself? The best do for #1 first – themselves.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 26, 2008 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 for using the word 'myriad'.
one of my fav’s.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 26, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yowzas
I think part of that is that our style of play is more effective when he’s not in…i.e. we’re often using a little bit smaller of a lineup. Also bear in mind he is usually playing with the 2nd unit, often against other teams that are fielding their first unit.
That is really hideous
--jscot
by prezofdeath on Nov 25, 2008 10:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Basketball is a team game!!!
I know its the NBA, but the game is the game. And it is on the defensive end that you see our teams inability to play together. Joel is by nature a team player, perhaps carrying a disproportionate amount of that responsibility. So it is no surprise that the introduction of a new big man would set back what little group mind is established.
by Blazin' on Nov 25, 2008 10:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nate's job
Is to not only balance winning now, but developing for our future. For our core players, he will always focus on developing them, even if they aren’t performing well that particular night. You won’t see Roy or LMA pulled after stretches of poor shooting like you would our role players. This is the same for Oden. While Greg may not have impressive +/- numbers, its still important to develop him to speed up his growth. The thing with Greg is that he won’t get force fed the ball like LMA did last year, or other game changing centers around the league.
Honor Terry Porter
by Philthyanimal on Nov 25, 2008 10:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Very true.
his team is also adjusting to a new routine in a myriad of ways,, including having a big guy in the deep post to pass to for the first time in forever
The entry passes look a little suspect. You can tell they are coming a second or two before they happen giving the defense ample time to set up.
1. Roy looks around for someone to pass it to.
2. Oden raises his arm, signaling that he wants the ball.
3. Roy passes it to Oden.
4. The defense cheats over. The Blazers stop moving and watch.
5. Oden tries to back his man down.
6. Oden travels.
I want to put points on your face.-Rudy Fernandez
by Winchester on Nov 25, 2008 11:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So when you say
“I’m still waiting and will be for, like, at least a year and a half,” you mean you can tolerate Oden having a negative effect on the team until the middle of next season? That is when it’s okay to hit the panic button?
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Nov 25, 2008 11:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe the "negative effect"
is as pronounced as this stat, as presented, would seem to indicate. At the very least one could attribute at least some of any negative effect that might occur to the team’s adjustment as much as Oden’s. The real problem with trying to make any kind of speculation is that we don’t know what the results would have been had Oden not played. Take Greg out and we don’t make up all of those minuses and start winning by 30 a night instead of 6. We don’t even know if we’d be 9-6. Could be 12-3, but also could be 6-9.
To answer your question directly, I would not hit the panic button officially before then, no. If Oden is still playing 19 minutes a game with 5 points and 4 fouls and a constant history of negative +/- behind him, then yes, something is wrong there. Raise your hand if you think that’s really going to happen though. I sure don’t.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 25, 2008 11:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even have a "panic button"
Why do so many fans bother having a “panic button” and why are they so eager to use it?
by tominhawaii on Nov 26, 2008 4:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You can order yours e.g. here and stick it on your keyboard (they even have one like that in the Computer Museum in Boston)
"For such a dumb kid, you've got a pretty smart mouth."
by Norsktroll on Nov 26, 2008 6:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because panic buttons and panty wearing (among non-females) ....
… tend to go together.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Nov 26, 2008 6:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
like Kyle Korver in that cringing photo
He panicked because he thought that large black man was going to knock him down.
"I would be in favor of trading LMA and Oden for a reliable starting PF at this point."
MT Suit, 11/25/08
by MT Suit on Nov 26, 2008 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As long as he stays healthy
his rookie season is a success, plus-minus be damned.
by neutroticblazerfan on Nov 25, 2008 11:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's how I feel too.
I hold my breath when Greg is playing, concerned about another injury. I’m happy he’s been able to continue playing and building his stamina.
Just a thought: couldn’t our far better +/- with Greg on the bench be attributed to the tremendous job that Joel has been doing?
by TwoDeep on Nov 26, 2008 7:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Partly since he knows his limits very well and thus shoots (dunks) over 80% which is considerably higher than Greg, but not alone
On defense they stay on pretty much the same level. But the overall shooting percentage of the four guys surrounding Greg drops inexplicably, while his percentages are fine. Maybe they try to involve him too much, maybe it’s something else.
"For such a dumb kid, you've got a pretty smart mouth."
by Norsktroll on Nov 26, 2008 7:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Focus
I think Greg is too focused on doing everything.
What Greg really needs to do, is focus on the Defensive end first, where we need him the most to:
Clog the lane
Block Shots
COLLECT REBOUNDS
After we get this out of the way, he will neutralize the nice effect Przy has for us, and then we can build on offensive comfort. I think if Greg isn’t worried about his footwork, but just blocking the s*#$ out of Kobe as he tries to drive on us, he will prove to be a lot more of a contribution. The Kings was a tough matchup for us, with such effective perimeter shooting big men, this really makes Greg look bad since he is not in great shape yet, and is definitely a guy we want down low, not up high to guard the 3 pters. I am a little confused why we didn’t run more zone when Greg was in, keep a hand in the big Kings face, and allow Greg to do what he does best, dominate the paint.
Bottom line
Greg needs to have a simple focused assignment, then build up confidence and add a new contribution to the team as he becomes more adapted to the NBA.
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life,(of the Blazers), (of KP's madness), of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. Never lose a holy curiosity." - Albert Einstein
by BlazerandBeaverBELIEVER on Nov 25, 2008 11:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
You make a very valid point—start with the basics and work from there. It will build everyone’s confidence, but mostly Greg’s.
(by the way, not to nitpick, but Rule 2 of the Conversational rules would apply to your 4-letter with an s above…keep it to all symbols and no letters)
"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan
by jamon51 on Nov 25, 2008 11:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
gotcha, sorry.
wish there was an edit function. thought i was safe with the random characters.. sorry all you families out there..
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life,(of the Blazers), (of KP's madness), of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. Never lose a holy curiosity." - Albert Einstein
by BlazerandBeaverBELIEVER on Nov 25, 2008 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One effect that very few are considering
is the complete change that has come over Joel since Greg has been healthy. No longer is Joel being tentative and conserving his fouls and energy, knowing there was no one on the bench to take his place. He knows that when he gets in foul trouble or is a little gassed there’s a 7’ monster ready to come in and rip opponents to shreds. Well, in theory. But still, the psychological effect on Joel has to be quite positive.
"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan
by jamon51 on Nov 25, 2008 11:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Even as uneven as Greg’s play—predictably—has been to date, he’s had a postive effect by freeing up Joel. Last season, the center position was a Blazer weakness. That’s not a knock on Joel, who was the heart and soul of the team. But Joel had to tread on eggshells last season because there was no one to back him up but Frye (who may be a “Buffet Of Goodness” but is no NBA center).
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Nov 26, 2008 1:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Zone would have worked soo well against the Kings
They were tearing us apart with all of the pick and roll, open deep shot stuff, if we ran a zone they would have been so much less open, and Greg could focus on the paint.
We aren’t worried about Brad Miller or Hawes driving from outside. Really, if Greg is in there we aren’t worried about anyone driving from outside. What was the real reason of no Zone D to speak of against the Kings?
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life,(of the Blazers), (of KP's madness), of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. Never lose a holy curiosity." - Albert Einstein
by BlazerandBeaverBELIEVER on Nov 25, 2008 11:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Geez, this isn't rocket science!
Of COURSE the team’s numbers are better so far with Oden on the bench. That’s because when he’s on the bench, Joel Przybilla is usually in there—a guy who the Blazers have played with for YEARS now. By contrast, they’ve played with GO for only a few games. Joel would have to be awfully bad—and GO awfully good—for those numbers to be much different.
Let me go out on a limb here. Without researching it, I’ll bet that Shaq’s +/- numbers when he joined the Suns last season weren’t too impressive either. And we’re talking one of the greatest centers in basketball history. Further, I’ll bet that those numbers are just fine now. Did Shaq suddenly become a better player between then & now? Of course not; if anything, he’s gotten worse because he’s on the downside of his career. But by now, he and his new teammates have enough games under their belts to know how to play together.
Do you expect GO—a raw, 20-year-old who missed his rookie season with microfracture surgery—to fare better than Shaq?
This isn’t to say that there aren’t deficiencies in GO’s game. He needs to improve. But hello! He’s a 20-year-old rookie who was drafted based on his incredible potential and his fit with this Blazer squad. No one that was paying attention expected him to start dominating his first couple weeks in the NBA. And that was BEFORE he missed a season with microfracture.
I truly can’t believe people would be paying any attenion whatsoever to Greg Oden’s +/- stats at this juncture. I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous. How is this kid going to start relaxing and settling in with this kind of scrutiny?
I heard SI’s Ian Thompson on Courtside earlier tonight ask the question: what on EARTH is the hurry? As he pointed out, even if Greg Oden were already everything anyone had hoped he could eventually be, the Blazers wouldn’t be contending this season. The rest of the lineup is still too young and inexperienced. So why in the world are fans putting him under the microscope like this when he’s hardly gotten his feet wet yet?
GO may be young and inexperienced, but I’d say he’s WAY more mature than a lot of Blazer fans and local media members. Grow up, people! In time, this guy will lead the Blazers to the Promised Land—that is, if you don’t chase him out of town first.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Nov 26, 2008 12:00 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
If Greg now was everything most had unrealistically expected him to be,
we’d be on our way to an NBA championship this season.
by TwoDeep on Nov 26, 2008 7:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You could make a case for that
But Ian Thompson—and I—would beg to differ. LMA is obviously still a couple years away from his prime. Rudy is still learning the league. Travis becomes a basket case when the defense tightens up. Martell still has a LONG ways to go. Sergio is only now beginning to look like an NBA-caliber point guard, and Bayless has hardly played a minute in the league. Roy is brilliant in every way, but, like most of his teammates, he hasn’t played a minute of playoff ball. Need I go on?
The potential on this team is unreal, but that’s all it is at this point—potential. Realistically, even a great NBA center wouldn’t be enough to put this team past the Lakers & Celtics. Not this season. Moses Malone in his prime couldn’t get it done with the Rockets. Nate “The Great” Thurmond—who Maurice Lucas says GO reminds him of—never won a single title (even playing alongside Rick Barry). Wilt Chamberlain only won a single championship (I believe). And he’d AVERAGED 50 points and over 20 rebounds in one of his losing seasons.
Of course, Kareem won a slew of titles. Er, that’s right: he had Magic Johnson, James Worthy, et al on his team!
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Nov 26, 2008 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet another example...
David Robinson in his prime didn’t win a thing until he got Tim Duncan to play alongside. And even THEN he didn’t win a title at first—despite Duncan having played a full four seasons at Wake Forest.
Now, I’m enough of a fan to dream the impossible dream and hope the Blazers win a title this year. But I’m also realistic enough to realize what the odds of that are—slim to none. Even if GO were magically transformed from a raw 20-year-old rookie coming off microfracture surgery into a great NBA center in his prime, the chances of a championship this season wouldn’t be good. Even the 76-77 Blazers had SOME playoff experience on their team. By contrast, even the current squad’s COACH hasn’t gotten his feet wet (except as a player).
Realistically, the Blazers’ championship window doesn’t open until next season, and then only a crack. My handle might be “hurryup09,” but that’s because next season is when things really get interesting—not because I believe a title next year is LIKELY. For now, we fans should be savoring the PROCESS. Rarely do you have the opportunity to watch and root for a young team that you know with near-certainty will soon be contending for NBA championships. Why spoil that by putting unreasonable pressure on the team to get it done NOW? I’m really disappointed; I thought Portland fans—or at least the ones who inhabit Blazersedge—were more sophisticated than that.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Nov 26, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it possible that when GO is on the floor
that the opposing team shifts their intensity level to full throttle. And since full intensity can’t be maintained they let up when he leaves the floor causing this +/- disparity?
Detroit used to live on this principal, bringing intensity only when needed.
The big swing from w/Oden to w/o Oden seems to belie his other numbers, i.e. PER.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
by Blazer1342 on Nov 26, 2008 2:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I've never been much of a fun of the plus/minus stat
For starters (who play 30+ min)I think it is a more accurate representation of their overall effect on the team, but the W/L record does a similar thing for those same players. For someone playing 19 min per game the +/- stat doesn’t hold as much weight imo.
Sure Greg is adjusting to the game right now, but he is doing some positive things out there. Most teams are scheming defensive strategies for Greg, some have been taking him out of his game, but come midway through the season I expect he’ll make an adjustment. I’ve already noticed a HUGE improvement in Greg’s passing from the post, something he’s going to have to learn to do well. Aldridge is having similar problems dealing with double teams every game, and he’s in his third year. I wouldn’t expect Greg to get all of the subtleties after his 10th game.
Does anyone else think that if Stan Van Gundy got a perm he’d be Ron Jeremy?
-Dave
by CMCWizard on Nov 26, 2008 8:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Where's the fun?
Just in watching the team develop — as individuals and as a team. Oden is still figuring it out AND when he’s in there and in the lane, already no one attacks the middle, already he gets rebounds we didn’t get before, already he changes the other team’s schemes. Actually, he’s playing against the tide: Very few teams have dominant post-up centers; the center has become a perimeter player on the rest, which drags the big centers away from the basket. So, yeah, it might be that the Blazers play lots of zone when he’s in there. That will be fun to watch — Oden’s adjustments — but within the context of the team’s development.
I agree that Joel is WAY better this year. I don’t know why, but I think GO has something to do with it. I imagine Joel having to play at his absolute max in practice to combat Oden, and that has to help. So does playing more with Sergio, who seems to find him all the time at the rim. But watching that develop, Joel’s improvement, has been fun, too.
Right now, we are wondering about so many things. Will LMA figure it out again? Will Travis EVER be consistent? What’s Rudy’s role going to be ultimately? Sergio v. Blake? What happens to Batum when Martell gets back? Or Trout for that matter? And in deference to Dave, what kind of a defensive identity are we going to have? But, weirdly, despite all the questions and concerns, the Blazers are a competitive basketball team — at least when BRoy is healthy and on the court. To me, it’s been a GREAT season so far.
by flightrisk on Nov 26, 2008 10:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Real fans don't care about the game, they only care about the stats the next morning and trade potential.
by tominhawaii on Nov 26, 2008 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bill Simmons take, and I think he is right about this
The NBA’s off-court subplots, in many ways, have become just as fun as anything happening on the court. Because of the Internet, sports radio, team blogs, better information guys and everything else, the whole trade/draft/free-agent market has practically evolved into its own sport to follow. We love reading mock drafts, making up fake trades, arguing about GM mistakes, discussing the latest moves and everything else. That’s just become part of being a hoops fan.
"For such a dumb kid, you've got a pretty smart mouth."
by Norsktroll on Nov 26, 2008 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+/- is a diagnostic tool.
For the heads-in-the-sand there’s a river in egypt named de nile crowd, yes, the +/- indicates something real, because it’s confirming what everyone can see in dayglo brite neon colors – the team stinks when Greg’s on the floor.
For the sky is falling zomg trade greg now he’s kwame 2.0 crowd, chillax. What’s happening is that this team has been built on offensive execution to create space on the wings (via picks and pops, drive and dish, and to a lesser extent backscreens) to create open jumpers. This is kind of like the detroit offense of the past few years, except without the steady diet of backcuts from rip.
This is a fragile but potent offense — fragile in the sense that everyone has to be doing the right things in terms of creating enough movement to create all our jumpshots, and we need to have a lot of shooters on the floor. Potent in the sense that when things are humming, we’re seriously deadly offensively.
What we aren’t is a team that wins on defense (currently 27th in def efficiency) or by dumping the ball in the post. So when we’re playing greg, everyone is kind of standing around unsure of what to do. It’s not that greg’s playing bad, it’s that our offense is broken by the presence of this guy we want to work into the offense, and our defense maybe improves a bit but nothing dramatic enough to outweigh the problems with our offensive execution.
Either incorporating greg into our current offense or coming up with a different offense that makes use of him is going to be a process. How quick will depend on our guys and our coaching. I hope to see some improvements by the end of the year, but I suspect we won’t really know what we’re doing on team offense for another season or two. I also worry that Nate’s a fine coach but not the right coach for this squad, but that’s another subject.
by howlingfantods on Nov 26, 2008 10:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If I was Charles Barkely...
I’d have to say the Greg “needs coach Lucas back somethin’ trrble”
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
by Net Ranger on Nov 26, 2008 11:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Dave
I’m not really hyping up my fanpost on StR or anything, but it’s funny you mention the use of +/- stats without the long term effects, and the thing is, that’s the only way they can be used. I really hope Blazer fans, and every fan everywhere of hoop, realizes this at some point. Cuz frankly, and I hope Oden stays healthy, but having a “-” stat for Oden means absolutely nothing at this point.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Nov 26, 2008 3:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned my fanpost on StR
Because I highlighted a comment you made in your Blazer-Kings recap from the Rose Garden. (Don’t read it. It’s awful. Trust me.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on Nov 26, 2008 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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