The Question:

The recent excellent post by Dave responding to Henry Abbott has started all of us thinking about how to measure Greg Oden's becoming a significant factor on behalf of the team.

In my analysis of the games through 11/19/08 I found several measures that say he has definitely boosted the team. His effect is not seen in how many points or rebounds he gets or even his plus/minus. It is seen in improvement in overall team defense and overall team production and from production from the Center position.

Joel Przybilla is playing his best basketball. Why? Joel tells us why: He can finally be aggressive and risk some fouls because Greg is his backup. But even more so these two Centers are (one of) the best pair in the league on defense. They are intimidating. Teams that want to beat the Blazers have to hit outside shots. Perversely the Blazer perimeter defense has improved as well forcing them inside.

Data derived from NBA.com and ESPN.com box scores of each game.

Here is the analysis:

The interior defense is being measured by points in the paint, percentage of shots in the paint and percentage makes from 2-point range. The Oden Factor considers the 6 games Oden was out of the lineup or not playing significant minutes against the 5 games following his return to the rotation (Miami through Sacramento). I do realize that the Phoenix game is an anomaly to this study but the work was done before that game and should continue to play out with anyone except a highly motivated Shaq and Amare.

      Opponent average points in the paint w/o Oden = 40.0
      Opponent average points in the paint with Oden = 35.6

      Opponent 2-point FG% w/o Oden = 51.7%
      Opponent 2-point FG% with Oden = 45.5%

      Opponent ratio of 2-point shots w/o Oden = 74.5%
      Opponent ratio of 2-point shots with Oden = 78.5% (see perimeter defense)

      Team Defensive blocks from Center w/o Oden = 0.7
      Team Defensive blocks from Center with Oden = 3.8

The perimeter defense has also taken a significant leap forward as measured by opponent 3-point shooting percentages. This reason for this might partly be the intimidating presence of the shot blocker in the interior allowing the perimeter defenders to play tighter.

      Opponent average 3-point FG% w/o Oden = 41.2%
      Opponent average 3-point FG% with Oden = 31.7%

These comparisons show a positive change with Oden in every defensive category except opponent offensive rebounds and the 17 OR by Chicago skews this significantly.

The interior offense has gained a boost from Oden as well as measured by points in the paint, shots from 2-point range & accuracy and rebounds of our shots taken. I also present the scoring improvement from Center

      Team average points in the paint w/o Oden = 33.3
      Team average points in the paint with Oden = 40.0

      Team 2-point FG% w/o Oden = 46.7%
      Team 2-point FG% with Oden = 47.9%

      Team ratio of 2-point shots w/o Oden = 74.5%
      Team ratio of 2-point shots with Oden = 78.5%

      Team average offensive rebounds from Center w/o Oden = 3.0
      Team average offensive rebounds from Center with Oden = 4.0

      Team average points from Center w/o Oden = 4.2
      Team average points from Center with Oden = 21.6

The perimeter offense has benefited also as measured by 3-point percentage.

      Team 3-point FG% w/o Oden = 41.2%
      Team 3-point FG% with Oden = 42.9%

The total offense has been steady at 99 points per game with and without Oden.

The total defense has been dramatically improved:

      Opponent average points w/o Oden =100.0
      Opponent average points with Oden = 90.2

Conclusion:

In my opinion Greg Oden has already made the team significantly better. He has improved nearly every aspect of the team while admittedly has more improvement to come. We are not sacrificing anything to play Greg as many minutes as his stamina can endure, while keeping Joel highly productive as well. Expect the coming months to add to this meager sample size and validate with even more improvement.

(With apology to the previous posters on this subject. This has taken me some time and presents a bit more data)