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14 Games In: Another jksnake99 Stat Geek Update

This update is mainly a Hollinger stat update, with a few other tidbits thrown in.  If someone else, like KP Corleone wants to do an 82games.com stat update, I would be interested in reading it.  I'll start with Team stats.

Pace

Portland continues to plod along, playing the 2nd slowest pace in the league.  San Antonio is slower.  New York  and Golden State are playing the fastest.

Offensive Efficiency

Portland is 2nd in the NBA in  points scored per 100 possessions at 109.8, trailing only (surprisingly) the Cavs.  The Lakers are third.  The worst offensive teams so far have been Charlotte, the Clips, and (dead last) the Thunder.  The median efficiency is 103.1.  To me, this means that criticisms of Portland's offense (while some of them are valid and interesting) are missing the point.  Offense is not our problem.  Yes, I'm aware I have criticized our offense, notably in my True Shooting % fanpost.  It now seems to me that I missed the point in that post, but hopefully people at least found it interesting.

Defensive Efficiency

Portland continues to struggle defensively.  The Blazers have allowed 106.4 points/100 possessions, better only than Washington, New Jersey and (no shock here) Sacramento.  The best defensive teams thus far have been the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Rockets and Sixers.  Where do the Blazers need to make improvements to jump from good team to great team?  DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE.  Hopefully, Greg Oden can help here... but so far the indications that he's making a big difference are not there.

Looking a Bit Deeper at Offense- Why are the Blazers Having Success?

Offensive efficiency can come from 4 different areas:  shooting a high percentage, getting a lot of offensive rebounds, not turning the ball over and getting to the foul line.  In Portland's case it appears turnovers (or the lack thereof) have been key.  Despite the high TOs the last few games, the Blazers still have the 2nd fewest turnovers per 100 possessions of any team.  The Blazers also have the 3rd best offensive rebound rate (we have the 13th best defensive rebound rate-- rebounding has been a major area of improvement this year, but we can still do a better job keeping other teams off the offesnive glass).   In terms of shooting the ball, the Blazers are doing more "living by the 3" than "dying by the 3.."  The Blazers are 6th in effective field goal %, which takes the value of 3s into account.  In True Shooting %, which takes FTs into account, Portland is 7th.  It appears the Blazers have been above average in pretty much every area of offensive basketball.

-------------------------

Hollinger Player Stats

A quick look at the PER rating.

PG: Blake is 25th among PGs and Sergio is 37th.

SG: Roy is the 5th rated SG (behind Wade, Kobe, Vince and Morrow) and 17th overall player.  He has a strong all-star case.  Rudy is the #9 rated SG, 47th overall.

SF: Batum is 19th among SFs and Outlaw is 22nd.

PF: With a couple good games under his belt, Aldridge has risen to the 22nd spot among PFs.  Still a dissapointing start for him.  If he can improve his efficiency, the Blazers could well be the top offensive team in the league.

C: Oden is rated as the 6th best center, behind Dwight, Al Jefferson, Biedrins, Shaq and Big Z.  While the team is still getting used to playing with him, there are a number of positive signs from Greg.  Perhaps the best example: His rebound rate is tops in the league among centers.  Joel's is third, with Golden State's Biedrins between them.   For the record, Joel's PER is 11th among C's, easily on pace for a career best showing in this mostly offensive rating (though the Blazer big men do get credit for boards and blocks).

---------

Summary:  The Blazers have played a tough schedule, largely on the road, and still accumulated some impressive stats offensively.  When the schedule lightens up a bit, its not at all unreasonable to think the Blazers offensive rating could go to #1 in the league, while their defensive rating could well climb toward the middle instead of the bottom.  Its hard to say this early in the season.  However, the various computer rankings are taking note of the Blazers managing to play this difficult stretch at above .500--  Hollinger has the Blazers 4th in his power rankings, Jeff Sagarin has them 8th.  Hollinger gives the Blazers a 98% chance at the playoffs... coolstandings.com has that number at 77%.

 

links:

Hollinger team stats

Hollinger player stats (insider)

Hollinger Power Rankings

Sagarin Ratings

Hollinger Playoff Odds

CoolStandings Playoff Odds

10 recs  |  Comment 32 comments

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Thanks for summarizing!

I enjoy looking at this stuff and frequently peruse myself, it’s nice to have it all in one spot! For that my sir you get a rec!

"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.

by blazermaniac32 on Nov 23, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

thanks indeed

"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.

by sergioFTW on Nov 23, 2008 1:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Just fyi

we were at #1 for offensive eff at least once about a week ago. I think we held it for a couple of days before it swapped back to the Cavs. On the other end, we’ve been bouncing between 27th and 30th on defensive eff. Yes, we have been 30th. We’ve edged up a bit over the past week.

by howlingfantods on Nov 23, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Teams typically

are much more efficient at home.

I would guess our defensive efficiency in home games is better than in road games, and since we’ve played 10 on the road and 4 at home, I suspect the numbers are skewed.

Still a small sample size, too, so we should be careful about the numbers. If your eyes are telling you the offensive isn’t as efficient as it could be, then they are probably right. The fact that we’ve got guys knocking down a whole lot of 3s doesn’t mean that our offensive schemes are good, but it does impact the stats.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 23, 2008 2:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I can't wait for the soft cream-filled center portion of our schedule...

some home games against creme puffs is just what the doctor ordered.

Still, 8-6 with only 4 home games is amazing.

Nice post, snake. Rec.

"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 23, 2008 3:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good post. Defense always gets overlooked...

The Celtics won a championship last year by committing to play tough D every night. For whatever reason, the stats confirm what anyone watching the games would say – the Blazers have been a TERRIBLE defensive team this year.

Although I agree that the difficult schedule plays into this, to my eyes, the Blazers don’t look much better on D against the creampuffs they have played up to this point. The first half against the lowly Kings (minus their best player and one of the most efficient two guards in the league) looked ATROCIOUS. Lay up, lay up, lay up. Open fifteen footer, open fifteen footer, open fifteen footer. The Blazers made John Salmons and Spencer Hawes look like Stockton and Malone in their prime.

This was overshadowed, ultimately, in the same way it typically has been so far – by shooting LIGHTS OUT from three. This probably isn’t a recipe for long term success. The Blazers are not going to end the season with six or seven guys shooting 40% from downtown. It will not last.

That’s why the Blazers need to, have to, MUST figure out how to improve on the defensive end.

What are the problems, and how can they improve?

Well, I think the bulk of the issues come down to two spots – PG and SF. Blake is a microcosm for the team so far this season – he has shot the ball well enough to distract everyone’s attention (for the most part) away from how atrocious he’s been on the defensive end. Trout has been predictable inept, other than brief flashes of psuedo-competence. And, notwithstanding his rep as a potential defensive stopper, Batum has struggled on that end. He’s just not strong enough or experienced enough to guard NBA wings.

The good news is, at the three, help is on the way. Martell is by far the best defensive small forward on the team. He will help. A lot.

PG is the long term question mark. Right now, the team lacks a viable option who can both space the floor by consistently knocking down the three (Blake, check; Sergio, nope) and play moderately competent D (Sergio, surprisingly, check; Blake, swing and a miss).

That’s why I think the front office is hard at work evaluating options at that spot, and why we keep hearing Hinrich rumors. He would combine the best attributes of Sergio and Blake – good shooter, good playmaker, good on D.

In the meantime, look for the Blazers to regress a little on offense, while still looking good. Let’s hope the D can find a way to step up and compensate.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 23, 2008 3:33 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

B-Rex may one day be the guy...

By all accounts, he’s a solid defender and can shoot the rock. Right now he’s just too inexperienced running the point, apparently, and he’s having trouble getting out of scoring mode.

As Thorpe said recently on espn, summer league can be a valuable assessment tool – IF the player is filling the same role in the regular season. Right now, the Blazers need B-Rex to do things he didn’t do much of this summer, and didn’t do enough of in college to get him ready.

I think B-Rex is a year or so away, and who knows whether he will make the jump to being a viable NBA point guard. Let’s cross our fingers. I still think the best use of all that cap room is to find somebody else (Hinrich, ideally) to use so that B-Rex can have time to develop the passing/playmaking/ball handling skills he needs.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 23, 2008 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I also the Blazer’s transition defense is rather slow. Teams who push the tempo have good success against the Blazers. I’m sure it has something to do with all the missed shots from the perimeter that clank off, but teams are just out racing the Blazers.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Nov 23, 2008 11:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well

for what its worth, those lowly Kings are an above average offensive team. The reason they are lowly is that their D is even worse than ours, but offensively they are pretty good (12th in the league). They just put up 108 (in exactly 100 possessions) at Staples. I agree with the rest of your post though.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Nov 24, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Their bigs are tough to guard because they can BOTH light it up from outside. Those guys don’t miss much.

Between Martin, Hawes, and Thompson, they might have a solid foundation in a few years. Especially since they won’t quite be good enough this year to avoid the lottery. They need a PG though – not sure if Beno (as your starter) is leading anybody to the playoffs.

I’ll do an 82games.com update sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, by the way. I can’t bring myself to right now, because Lamarcus still has a very strong plus/minus and I don’t want to explode my brain trying to figure that one out. I’ll attribute it to what PoliSam was saying about the margin of error.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 25, 2008 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In an eariler, I explained my thoughts regarding LaMarcus Aldridge's odd +/- production.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/11/24/670010/game-15-recap-blazers-91-k

Apropos of LaMarcus Aldridge, it’s on offense whereby he boosts his +/- stats.”

Net Points Scored Per 100 Possessions: +15.9
Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: +0.6

http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR8.HTM#onoff

"From that standpoint, one would conclude that Aldridge’s enhances the team’s offense and makes little difference on defense. That’s a misleading statistic in this instance, however, ’cause Aldridge is playing ahead of two even softer, more selfish mid-range chuckers in Channing Frye and Travis Outlaw.

All things considered, Aldridge, Frye, and Outlaw have each played like they own tons of stock in Proctor & Gamble Co. — which produces Charmin toilet paper — as they’ve taken the power out of power forward."

Of course, that’s just my conclusion on the matter.

by AK1984 on Nov 25, 2008 4:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Those guys make LMA look like Charles Oakley.

Amazingly, 84% of Channing’s shots this year have been jump shots. That’s compared with 66% for LMA. Trout’s 88% is more expected since he’s mostly (I guess) a three.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Nov 25, 2008 4:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

but I dont think you can conclude that Oden has not helped on defense as he has not played in all of our games so you cant really isolate him as someone who has not helped. I think his +/- is not so good, but that stat is not so good in a small sample regime.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Nov 23, 2008 3:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

In my opinion

you can’t have a complete breakdown of stats without at least including 82games.com.

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR.HTM

by as11osu on Nov 23, 2008 4:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Great Post

And major credit for you letting stats be persuasive in reference to your prior post.

I, too, thnk your post on defense is right on. It’s interesting that me and everyone else I see posting here (for the most part) are obsessive about offense. Outlaw shoots too many weirdo shots; Rudy misses too many threes; LMA is in a slump… etc, etc, etc.

And here we are, one of the best ofensive teams in the league. So the post has done something for me: pay more attention to the defense!! And I think Martell can help here. Frye and Outlaw certainly can’t.

One thing though: I notice that the stat is per 100 possessions. That’s great as a benchmark for relative play. But I also note that we’re the slowest team (or close to it) in the NBA.

Does this mean that while we score a lot in 100 possessions it takes us, by far and away, the L-O-N-G-E-S-T amount of time to reap the benefits of that highly efficient offense?

I’m not talking about passing the ball around… which I love. I’m more worried about our chronically lousy fast break.

And Roy.

The only—and I mean only—irritating thing I found about Roy is how terribly slow he is bringing the ball up the court. I’m begging him through the TV to at least job if he’s going to bring the ball up. And is it just me or is Roy sort of bad running the break? I guess the whole team is plain awful at the fast break but it’s weird to me that Roy himself seems oddly out of position on those plays.

I mention this—maybe partly because I can’t avoid obsessing about offense—but also because I think that’s an easy way we could speed play up. It seems to me that every time Roy brings the ball up the court he’s bring the ball the whole way up the court and there is no chance for any sort of fast break or quick possession.

As an aside, I have no problem “living by the three” provided that they’re open and good shots. One thing I’ve been impressed about on this team is we take very, very good three-point shots. I’m totally fine watching a season on that and banking it through to the playoffs.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Nov 23, 2008 4:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Obviously I meant "jog" and not "job"

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Nov 23, 2008 4:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We don't have to speed it up

If we’re getting few possessions and yet being efficient with those possessions, we’re still beating the other team.

Another point is this: it doesn’t matter whether you’re a good defensive team and average offensively, or vice versa—what matters is point differential. Because, in the end, the team that has the most points wins the game (duh) and it doesn’t matter if it’s 12-10 or 159-157. Point differential, not just defense and not just offense. I think jksnake’s post illustrates that.

"I believe in [Joel]. I just love the way he plays." - Nate McMillan

by jamon51 on Nov 23, 2008 6:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We are performing about as I would expect

for a 7th or 8th seed playoff team. We won a few games against strong teams, and beat almost all of the weak teams.

We are 3-5 against teams that have a winning record as of last night.

Wins – Houston, Orlando, and Miami
Losses – LA, Phoenix x2, Utah, New Orleans.

We are 5-1 against the remaining teams.

Wins – San Antonio (6-6), Minnesota x2, Chicago, Sacramento
Losses – Golden State

In the 8 games we won, the opponents combined record is 46-55.
In the 6 games we lost, the opponents combined record is 49-28.

"But we need a center", Inman said. "So play him at center!" Knight yelled back. - Bobby Knight on Michael Jordan prior to the Blazers' 1984 draft pick of Sam Bowie.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Nov 23, 2008 5:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We are performing about as I would expect

for a 5th seed playoff team.

We are 4-5 against teams that are at .500 or better, but analyzing this by home/away provides a different picture.

Home: Wins — Houston, San Antonio.

Away: Wins — Orlando, Miami
Losses — LA, Phoenix x2, Utah, New Orleans

Remaining teams
Home: Wins — Minnesota, Chicago

Away: Wins — Minnesota, Chicago, Sacramento
Losses: Golden State

That means we are 3-1 away against losing teams, which over the course of the season projects to winning 15 of the 20 away games against losing teams. We are 2-5 away against .500 or better teams, which projects to winning 6 of 21 away games against the better teams. So we’re on course for 21 wins on the road.

We’re on course for 41 home wins, which is silly, of course, but a team that wins 21 on the road is likely to win more than 30 at home, and we certainly haven’t done anything to discourage that conclusion. 21 + 30 or more means 51 or more wins, which in most seasons will get you a 5th seed or better.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 23, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's silly at all.

41 Home wins is entirely possible. Right up to the point if they should lose one at home, then it would no longer be possible. Wow, I sound like a pain in the patookus.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"In vino veritas." - Latin proverb
"Ich sitze hier und trinke mein gutes Wittenbergisch Bier und das Reich Gottes kommt von ganz alleine" - Martin Luther
"μηκέτι ὑδροπότει, ἀλλὰ οἴνῳ ὀλίγῳ χρῶ διὰ τὸν στόμαχον καὶ τὰς πυκνάς σου ἀσθενείας." - 1 Timothy 5:23

by T Darkstar on Nov 24, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

About what you sound like, that is.

After this last adventure, I now believe 41-0 at home is possible, too. If we even win when we play like that, just think how awful we would have to be to lose.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Nov 25, 2008 12:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like to read the geek speak

But I dont have anything useful to contribute

by southern oregon on Nov 23, 2008 9:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Faster offense?

Here’s my simplistic simpleton line of reasoning. Sure at first glance speeding up the offense would give the other team more possessions per game as well. But given our superior offensive rebounding and low turnover rate, wouldn’t that mean, all other things equal, speeding up our offense would result in a greater number of shots plus more second chance points through orebs? In that case, a faster offense would mean not just a greater number of shots, but a greater a greater number of shots than the opposing team. For example, a slow offense could give us say 24 mins offense and 24 mins defense. But a faster offense could theoretically give us 26 mins offense and 22 mins defense.

I’m not saying take up the Nellie/D’Antoni playbook. But taking the shot a fraction faster each possession should help efficient scoring teams like ours! I just think by at least running instead of walking the ball down court and not running the shot clock down on most plays will in the end increase the Blazer’s proportion of possessions.

But I guess in the end, offense gets teams into the playoffs. Defense wins championships.

by LMA on Nov 24, 2008 12:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

But maybe speeding up the offensive would cause a lower efficiency

and a lower o-reb rate due to guys not being set.

I’m just sayin’…

Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Nov 24, 2008 10:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I find it strange

the way Brandon ambles up the court (even with 3 minutes left and down by 10 against Phoenix).

And I follow your logic. Although it would be more compelling if our defense wasn’t as bad statistically as our offense is good.

There is the case for establishing a rhythm. That’s a rationale for Brandon’s pace.

I just wish he had a faster rhythm!

by Blazin' on Nov 24, 2008 1:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's good practive for a 7 game series in the playoffs

where the pace slows and the games seem to be more grind-it-out…

Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Nov 24, 2008 10:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Other stats to ponder...

A mutli-year study at 82 games found B Roy has an average +1 impact per 48 minutes.
http://www.82games.com/ilardi2.htm
The early data this season says something much more negative but it is too early to give this data much weight.
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?team=POR&year=2008-2009

Now the adjusted stat is far from the last perfectly accurate word but is the common thought that Roy carries the team wrong or at least off by enough to revise it? Would it be more accurate to say he is probably neutral impact or worse during most of the game but then recovers with a strong clutch time impact? Given what I see that is what I’d say. Long way for Roy to have superstar impact and few of those considered such really have very large impact.

The same datasets says Aldridge and Rudy lead on team impact by far this season and Aldridge led by a bit last season too if you consider minutes payed and total value delivered rather than per 48 mninutes projection. If Aldridge stays the leader is that a recipe for being a heavyweight contender/ does that work out better than Bosh? Or are the Blazers going to have to be a Pistons type team collective to make up for not having a AAA level superstar that is usually necessary to win a championship?

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

More on early adjused data

Batum a slight negative? Oden a disaster?

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Blazer defense

How to divide the responsibility for the current 22nd team defensive efficiency?
Small sample before the expected /desired/ imagined Oden effect but when does it change to elite level ? Last season was 17th.

Between Pritchard, Nate, any assistant given influence on it and the players?

Defensive minded Nate has never coached a team to an average or better defensive efficiency rating. Hampered by GM decisions for much or all this time but if that doesn’t change can’t see him being the coach beyond this contract.

Paging Monty Wlliams or Kevin Pritchard? If you assign a large amount of the responsibility for the defense to the GM then I don’t think you want Pritchard as the coach.

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Batum

Praised early for his individual defense for occasional smart athletic plays, Batum has the team’s worst team defense when on the court and tied with Blake for the worst on/off. Fine counterpart defense score. Is the action around him the fault of the other players or is he just not up to anywhere near average as an NBA team defender yet? Of course it is early and he gets more time to settle in. But still something to watch vs the hype.

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

More on Batum and others

Actually Diogu has team worst team defense on the court but I didnt count him previously due to low minutes.

Oden 4th worst.

Rodriguez by far the best on defense though mainly against subs I assume. Second worst on offense too though despite his focus and the common impression of the value of his desire running style. If you play Sergio maybe you change the reason from offense which is not supported by the stats to defense which is at the team level and at the counterpart level. His counterpart defense might be as good as PG in the league right now. Want better defense? Play Sergio more coach. Laugh or disbelieve it but the numbers are out there to consider to some degree.

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

should be...

His counterpart defense might be as good as “any” PG in the league right now.

by StatRaven on Nov 27, 2008 12:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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