Early Observations

After watching our first three games this season, there are some observations I’ve had about our team in general, as well as some indvidual players. First, let’s start with the team…

*We aren’t playing good team defense. It seems as though we’re late in rotating to the ball on swing and skip passes, resulting in an abnormally high amount of open three pointers, which our opponents have been hitting at a significantly high rate (52.3 from the field, and a whopping 51.2 from distance)

*Our first team’s offense looks stagnant. This is especially true when our opponents move into a zone. Instead of using our dribble and getting into the heart of the zone and dishing, we need to attack the rim and get ourselves to the line, only kicking if the defense closes in time. We seem to just settle for the first decent look we get. Very few teams can consistently win by taking a high rate of jumpers, and I can’t recall the last team to win an NBA title while consistently settling for outside shots.

*Injuries are really hurting this team right now. While being 1-2 so far is not that bad, there are certain things that both Oden and Webster can do which we need. Webster had been arguably the most impressive Blazer in camp (outside of Aldridge), and really looked good in our first preseason game before his injury. Martell does a good job of scrapping on defense, and is not out of position all that often (something Travis is still struggling with). While the numbers may disagree with me, there’s nobody outside of Brandon Roy I’d rather have take an open three than Martell. Oden provides a scoring threat at center for us, one of the few things Przybilla doesn’t do. Because of Oden’s sheer size, he’ll demand at least occasional double-teams when guarded by smaller centers. Even though he’d admit he’s not in game shape yet, during the pre-season, he averaged 11.5 points and 7.8 rebounds in 23 minutes a game, which for half the centers in the league would be a good year. Give this kid time, and he’ll be VERY GOOD!

*Our best line-up is Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Aldridge, and Przybilla. Since we’ve only seen Oden in one half of one game, this is our most complete line-up when factoring in half court offense, fast breaks and defense. When Webster and Oden are back healthy, I’m sure this will change, but with this line-up, we can play a zone defense, with good passing lane defenders in Fernandez and Batum, and two good shot blockers in Aldridge and Przybilla. We’d be able to get out on the break, and all of our guards can handle the ball (Roy and Rudy our two best), and Aldridge and Przybilla (to a lesser extent) can run and finish in transition.

*The officials won’t give us any breaks. If you’re unsure of that, just watch the officiating in the Suns game. We’re a young team, and we DO have to earn a reputation in this league as an attacking team before calls that should be made will be. Outside of Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez, nobody else is attempting 3 free throws a game, which tells me we are settling for far too many jumpers, as evidenced by our paltry 42.1% shooting from the field, which is the sign of a young team.

Now for the individual observations.

*Brandon Roy is our Point Guard of the Future. While Nate has been very hesitant to say such things, Brandon initiates the offense at least 2/3rds of the time. At this point, he is our best ball-handler, and while Nate may never list Brandon as a PG, he is one.

*Aldridge can be a force…when he puts his mind to it. One of my biggest worries with him is that he’s starting to get Rasheed Wallace Syndrome…No I don’t mean getting technicals every game. He seems to be taking too many jumpers, and while he makes a decent percentage of them, he’s also a very efficient post player. If he were more willing to take it hard to the rack, he’ll get the man guarding him in more foul trouble, and open up more easy shot opportunities as his man will have to be more cautious while they are in foul trouble.

*Rudy is our second best playmaker. Note that I didn’t say player, as the #2 guy is still LaMarcus (Brandon is #1). Rudy seemingly is all over the court, and does an excellent job of coming off of screens, as well as rebounding and playing the passing lanes. He does gamble a little bit more than I’d like to see, but he’s always hustling, doing the little things to try and help this team win.

*Batum is NBA ready. While I don’t think he’s come anywhere close to reaching his potential, this kid’s defense is already more polished than any of our other wing defenders. He’s rarely out of position, and uses his long arms very well to contest shots, as well as poke the ball away from his man. I remember watching Summer League and thinking he was AT LEAST three years away from being a rotation player. I still can’t believe how much this kid has progressed in just a few short months!

*We miss Martell Webster. Since Nate has seemingly insisted on starting Outlaw, our first unit has seemed out of sync. Travis seems like a great kid, but our offense has been missing some continuity. He is definitely a very good offensive player, but he kind of has the Ron Artest – Zach Randolph black hole mentality, that every time he touches the ball, he needs to shoot. While Outlaw is not THAT bad about passing, and has done better this year, he needs to be a better catch-and-shoot player from inside the arc when he’s open, instead of always taking a dribble and allowing a defender to close on his shot. With Webster in the first unit, Outlaw can slide back to being the primary option with the second unit, where he'd have more freedom to take shots.

*Given time, Greg Oden will be a beast. It seems as though quite a few people have been jumping off the Oden Bandwagon lately. Why? Because he landed on Derek Fisher’s foot and sprained his own? Ludicrous. If that would have happened to Aldridge, would there have been the same reaction? NBA big men get injured. It happens. The kid doesn’t turn 21 until January 22nd, yet some people seem ready to write him off. Oden is a

very good passing big man, something most centers take 3 or 4 years in the league to develop. He requires constant attention in the post, as his sheer size and strength make him a target for double teams. He uses his body very well to box out, and rebounds out of his space. He also does a very good job of staying on his feet until the last second before trying to block a shot, which should be able to keep him from fouling as much as a lot of other young big men do. His offense is raw, I don’t think anyone would dispute that. At this point in his career, he kind of reminds me of Dwight Howard his first couple years in the league. Let’s also not forget Oden also needs a little bit of time to adjust to the NBA game, both with the speed of the game, and how it’s played. Despite being injured in the first four minutes of the Laker game, he was still able to keep Bynum at bay (including a SICK block of a Bynum hook shot before he sprained his foot), and grab 5 boards (3 offensive) in just under 13 minutes of play. As long as Oden comes back healthy from his foot injury, he should end up averaging close to a double-double with at least two blocks per game.

*Blake has struggled on “D”. While he’s been shooting very well this season (45.5% from the field, 50% from three), he has been getting beat off the dribble a lot, which is allowing the drive and kick for the open three (which, as mentioned above, has led to opponents shooting over 50% from distance).

So, with all that being said, what are your thoughts on this team so far?