True Shooting %: Joel and Rudy Good... Aldridge bad
by jksnake99 on Nov 17, 2008 1:52 PM PST
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PrintThe Hollinger stat "True shooting %" is basically an improved points per shot-- it is a measure of how efficient a player is with his shots. The formula is:
True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50)/[100*(FGA + (FTA x 0.44))]
--
Here are the Blazers TSPs:
Joel- .718 (3rd in the league- this dude knows what he can and can't do).
Rudy- .660 (12th in the league- if someone has to shoot ridiculous shot clock beating fallaways, it should be Rudy... and not Outlaw)
Batum- .571 (75th in the league, 16th among SFs)
Blake- .570 (76th, 10th among PGs)
Roy- .532 (127th, 29th among SGs... this is unacceptable from Roy. He has to be more efficient with his shots. Edit: Roy is right around his career TSP. I think this does provide some evidence that we run too many clearouts for Roy. He's a terrific player, but shooting efficiency is one area where he could improve.)
Outlaw- .529 (136th, 26th among SFs. Outlaw is not going to keep hitting 3s at his current rate. Edit: I'm not saying he should stop shooting 3s, just that I feel his TSP will drop if his shot selection remains the same. If he doesn't start taking smarter shots, he's really going to hurt the team)
Oden- .521 (I wouldn't worry about this- in his last two games his TSP is a healthy .699- we need more data on Greg).
Aldridge- .480 (225th, 52nd among PFs. This is bad, really bad. For reference, Bosh is at .615, Pau is at .574, Zbo is at .521... even Kevin Durant is at .493). We can't afford for our #2 scoring option to be so inefficient. If Aldridge takes better shots, we can be the top offense in the league.
Sergio- .466 (Yikes, at least he doesn't shoot very often).
Channing- .404. (Double Yikes- shooting is Channing's strength. Last year his TSP was .529-- still not great, but not bad for a role player. I expect this number to climb).
---
In summary, Rudy is awesome, Joel knows his role, there's room for improvement from Roy, and Aldridge and Outlaw are really hurting the team with their brickfests.
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You're right, we should let Joel shoot more, and get the ball out of Roy's hands
“Roy- .532 (127th, 29th among SGs… this is unacceptable from Roy. He has to be more efficient with his shots)”
Seriously? Man, there’s a difference between the factors these players see while shooting. You totally recognize this with Joel, but ignore it with Roy and Outlaw. That’s blatant anti-homerism.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
And, why do you even bother looking at the stat if you make excuses from some (Oden)
and criticize others (outlaw and Roy) based on it? You’re reaction to the stat is peppered with impressions not supported by it. I just expected more from out resident “cool, rational guy.”
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
I guess you are right about Roy
His TSP last year was .531 so he’s about the same. I just think this is evidence that perhaps our Spanish friends are correct that we run to many clearouts for Roy.
Outlaw takes bad shots. Period. We would do better if he shot less.
Aldridge is well below last season’s TSP of .523, but even that is pretty bad for our main post scorer.
Sample size is a concern for all of this data, but is it really unreasonable to note that its a bigger caveat for Greg’s 18 field goal attempts than for Travis’s ~100 fg attempts?
I welcome analysis from others about what these numbers actually mean.
Boomshakalaka
Your analysis is spot on
The only reason Roy’s TSP is so good is because he’s a phenomenally great player. Our offense is not designed to get him easy shots.
This is my one big complaint about Nate, and I never complain about him. This is perhaps the first time I’ve posted a complaint about him here. But he runs too many clearouts for Brandon. That’s not efficient offense.
If you have 13,748,927 tools in your tool box, it is better to keep the other team guessing a little bit as to which one is going to pulverize them — they are less likely to be able to slow you down if they don’t know from where the blow will fall. Isolations work when you don’t have a good team, or you only have one or two legit threats. Otherwise, it should be a fallback option.
LMA will improve as the year goes on. Travis may or may not. Rudy may have some drop-off, but his style of game lends itself to getting the alley-oops and the open shots.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
by jscot on Nov 18, 2008 4:33 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You use the most effective move each time.
A statistical dispersal of that is almost never helpful to enhance efficacy. Imagine if our deterrent during the MAD years had involved other tools. “Ok, we’ll destroy Moscow with MIRVs, but we’re going to use bullets for Beijing, we’ll drop cluster bombs on Belarus, and we’ll send Teddy Ruxpin to Afghanistan.” You use what’s most effective each time. If that’s a clearout, use it. Whatever gives you the best oppurtunity to score. I’m sold that Roy’s clearouts are responsible for much defensive attention. That in turn allows Rudy some leeway from the defense. If Roy stops with isos, does Rudy get better or worse? He may get more shots, but we’ve not seen him able to deal with determined, focused on him D like Roy has (he could be better, but he’s still better than Roy)
It just screams irony to me when I hear statements about Rudy getting less than his share while Roy’s taking isos. Rudy’d be getting more shafted if Roy took a break.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
I didn't say stop the isos
I said too many.
Yes, you use the most effective each time. But the most effective varies, and varies largely on what the opposition is expecting.
Roy is superb, but he’s not a WMD. He can be stopped, at least some of the time.
An unexpected form of attack is often more effective than the expected form, even if the expected is usually a more effective weapon. Watch some video of the 76-78 team and you’ll see it over and over again.
You think Roy is effective in isolation when driving the lane? How do you think he’d be when he gets the ball cutting to the basket when he’s already past his man because of off the ball motion and picks? I don’t want Brandon to get fewer shots, I want an offense that gives him the ball when he’s already got an advantage on his man, and you’ll see his numbers in this statistic edge up towards where Rudy is.
It’s good to have established Roy’s isolations as an offensive threat. You need that sometimes, and teams will have to respect it for the rest of his career. But if it is our main weapon, we’re going to struggle when he’s up against the Bowens and Artests.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
You're mistaking the utility of statistics
and supplanting tactics. Would you make a chess move because it’s statistically what’s supposed to happen? Or would you look at the situation?
TSP can be a fun stat, but there’s nothing conclusive about it. Altering team play based on this, even coming up with conclusions based on it (regardless of the sample size) would be detrimental to the team. It could be a factor in how the team plays, but saying, “Rudy is awesome, Joel knows his role, there’s room for improvement from Roy, and Aldridge and Outlaw are really hurting the team with their brickfests” is baseless without considering relative impacts.
I won’t even bother to mention oppurtunity costs, diminishing returns, dealing with a focused defense. The scope of your argument is tiny in comparison to what a coach considers when assigning (or suggesting) shot volume.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
It's just a small sample size
I’m sure Roy’s TS% will go higher. Just a couple of nice shooting games from him and it’ll bump him up. I’m not too concerned about it.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
well
his TSP was about the same last year. If he really has become an 80+% FT shooter, than perhaps his TSP will increase as his FG% returns to normal levels, but Roy has never been a particularly efficient scorer (note: he’s a good enough passer, rebounder, and “closer” than he’s still an awesome player, despite this shortcoming).
Boomshakalaka
Roy is drawing more fouls too
He is shooting almost 2 more free throws than last year. His FG% is out of line with his career averages. I expect it to go up as the season goes on. So I’d think his TS% go up as well. One of the underrated aspects of Roy’s scoring ability is his knack for taking care of the ball. For a guy relied to be the playmaker and scorer, its exceptional. While he may not be shooting as efficiently as some other stars, he doesn’t turn the ball over when he does try to score.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
uh
don’t mean to rain on the Brandon parade, but our captain leads the team in turnovers, and I’ve seen a lot of those come on forced drives…
It's not hard to lead the team in turnovers in his role.
He plays the most minutes along with Aldridge and has the ball the most.
His TOV% is only 9.9% so far this year. Last year it was only 9.3. K*be’s rate, for reference, is roughly 11 the past 3 years. Wade turns it over at around 15% for the past 3 years. Relatively speaking, Roy doesn’t really turn it over.
IT's still too early for most of these guys...not just GO
Having said that, yes LA and Roy have not been as consistent or as efficient as we would hope that’s for sure.
Will Outlaw shoot over 50% from 3 for the rest of the season? probably not but you can’t for sure say that it will be detrimental. His 3 point shooting is the best thing that he is contributing to the team right now. Yes he has had several “Bad Travis” games offensively already, but to be fair he usually hasn’t started chucking until the offense is already stagnant. Both LA and Roy have been guilty of this as well this year. Their efficiency goes down because they are trying to bail out a stalled offense.
Rooo-D!
not saying Travis should stop shooting 3s
I’m saying that his 3 point success is hiding the fact that his two point shots have been awful. If he was shooting ~38-40% on threes (which is the best I can see him doing for the season), his TSP would be hideous. If he stops shooting absurd fallaway jumpers, the Blazers will be better off.
Boomshakalaka
That is exactly right. Travis is shooting over 50 % from behind the arc
once that goes down, which it will, his TSP will be back to roughly what it was last year.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
you might not
want to base to many conclusions on a 10 game sample size that has seen 7 of the games played on the road.
I fully expect Travis’s 3 pt percentage to drop. But I also expect his 2 pt percentage to increase. The .404 he’s shooting is easily a career low. But it’s also a standard beginning for him. He always seems to shoot worse to start a season, but then dials it in as the season goes on.
It’s also worth noting that he’s still asked to create some offense for himself, something most blazers would be inefficient doing.
Travis is not a real efficient shooter, but he is a real clutch shooter, and he’s very effective down the stretch. Last season, Travis’s clutch play numbers were comparable to Roy’s, and his clutch play (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points) shooting percentages were the best on the team.
The value of that more then offsets some of his faults.
I have to disagree
You’re right (let’s hope) that of course it’s expected Travis’s two-points FG% will increase. It better. But that doesn’t excuse the quality of the shots he’s taking (whatever the sample size – and I don’t think 1/8 of the season is all that insignificant).
Here’s a statement that was true last year but may not be quite as valid this year:
It’s also worth noting that he’s still asked to create some offense for himself, something most blazers would be inefficient doing.
I don’t think he’s ASKED to create offense for himself – he takes it upon himself to do it. If the shot clock is ticking down or the offense has been stagnant, fine. Still not a great shot when it’s a contested jumper, could be worse though.
But a lot of his bad shots have been early in the clock, and I would be shocked if Nate or anybody else approved (much less asked) of the decisions.
We’ll see what happens with Travis, but I’ll be mildly surprised (not blown away – just mildly surprised) if he’s still around at year’s end and the Blazers sign him to another deal. His skill set (unless he can really, really improve his shot selection and only shoot when he’s actually open) is not what this team needs anymore.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
This is a good post
This stat is just a piece of the puzzle, as we all know.
LaMarcus is going through a little transition right now and I think it’s is having more of an affect on his game than any other player on the team at this time. He is learning to play off of Oden (for 4 games about ) and posting up more often when Oden is not in the game. LaMarcus’ post moves are soft right now, but I have no doubt they will inprove.
Roy is going to be fine. This stat is the perfect example of a “number” that is not indicative of the true value of a player to their team. This number will go up, but I think it hardly matters Roy is the man .
As for Rudy, Batum and Przy, this is encouraging to see.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
by BlazerFan1 on Nov 17, 2008 1:42 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
totally agree on Roy
His TSP doesn’t tell the whole story at all. Its something he can work on, but it hardly means he’s anything other than a terrific player.
Boomshakalaka
I think these numbers are low for our guys
because they are still learning to play with eachother. The fact that they are pulling out tough wins against tough teams when the lineups are in upheaval is really a good thing. I <3 the Blazers
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
Travis is shooting 34% from 2 point range.
What’s needed is more minutes for Batum and less for Travis.
"Greg Oden is the strongest guy in the NBA" - Channing Frye.
But Travis is a great shooter.
With better shot selection, he might be at Rudy level. Someone’s just got to beat into his head when to shoot and when not to.
I think his shot selection will not change, If it hasn't changed in all these years...
He could be much more efficient. (as we all know)
I suppose I meant our "stars" like Roy and Aldridge
but yea I couldn’t agree more with your statement about Travis and Batum
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
Link?
Do you have a link to the page where you got these numbers? This is cool stuff, and worth exploring more. Thanks!
< /war >
its from John Hollinger's player stats
ESPN Insider is required I think. Of course, this particular stat is relatively easy to calculate by hand.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=tsp&pos=all&seasonType=2&action=login&appRedirect=http3a2f2finsider.espn.go.com2fnba2fhollinger2fstatistics3fsort3dtsp26pos3dall26seasonType3d2
Boomshakalaka
I think you are right not to worry about Oden yet :)
Andrew (Portland, OR): In the last two games Oden has actually put up a monsterous 18/14/5 per 36 minutes. Understandably now all he has to do is learn the pro game better and cut down on fouls.
John Hollinger: And in his first game he averaged 0.0 points per 36 minutes. You’re extrapolating from an awfully small sample my friend.
Hollinger is just bitter that he's going to have to eat crow...
about Oden being a zero-factor.
EAT CROW HOLLINGER!!!
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Nov 17, 2008 2:26 PM PST up reply actions
the poing being John
that Oden is RUSTY and will ONLY get better.
That said, there’s a difference between playing 10 minutes and playing 36 minutes. There’s a difference between being a role guy and being the teams focal point. Defenses react differently and those stats change as a result.
Still… Oden will ONLY get better. The guy looks ugly and rusty and when he shakes that off, you WILL see those shaq like numbers start to come out. I’m actually amazed some people don’t see that.
17 games and counting.
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
LMA ain't improving his TS% much
If Aldridge takes better shots, we can be the top offense in the league.
It’s not a matter of taking better shots. LMA is just not a efficient scorer. He doesn’t draw fouls, make 3s, or get easy baskets. Most of his points comes from mid-range jumpshots set up by teammates. LMA has a hard time creating a good shot for himself especially against physical players. I don’t think he’s a good scorer, but he’s the best the Blazers have after Roy this season. I hope that Oden will start to get more looks than LMA eventually.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
But remember
Oden will never, ever be a good offensive player. You can tell it by the first time you saw him on the court. ; )
"I saw him in the face" Sergio's quote on the latest alley-oop to Rudy.
by blazermaniac32 on Nov 17, 2008 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
luckily my first time
was in preseason highlight videos. so I say he’s going to kill like crazy.
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
Basically what you're saying then is that LMA just isn't a good basketball player...
Scoring is what he does. He’s not a good rebounder. He’s mediocre (or at best pretty good) on D. If he can’t learn to score efficiently, then I’ve got bad news – all those people who said he’s a rich man’s Joe Smith are wrong: He’s just Joe Smith. Not a rich man’s version.
I don’t think that’s true. I realize LMA has a hard time creating his shots, but I think he needs to work on his face up game going to the rack. I think he can work the post with the right opportunity. And I think he can get shots in the 14-16 foot range rather than 18-22.
I think he’s looked pretty good in the limited stretches when he’s done that. When he settles for 22-foot jumper after 22-foot jumper, he’s doing absolutely nothing to help the team (even if he does put up 16-18 points). Trout or Frye could hit those shots just as well – but they’re not the types of shots that win games.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 17, 2008 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I didn't say LMA isn't a good player
I just think he is forced into the role of a main scorer on this team because there are no other big man options. He looks really uncomfortable working around the hoop. Doesn’t like to take contact and contorts his layups to avoid it. Maybe it’s an mental issue or maybe it’s physical, I don’t know. What I do know is that Oden is better option in the post and most likely will turn out to be a better scorer. As the season goes on, I think Oden will take more and more of those post passes than LMA. It’ll be a good thing for the team. This season so far, LMA is playing like Joe Smith, but I have confidence he’ll play better.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
i say it's mental
the guy could be amazing as soon as he realizes it.
Greg Oden, where posters happen.
great take KPC
couldn’t agree more about LMA’s offense.
I do think he’s decent on D and could become a plus defender.
Boomshakalaka
I prefer eFG%
Which is effective field goal percentage which balances out for 3pt shots, which i fell like is a better measure of how many points you make per opportunity:
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).
See our stats for this in the ‘advanced’ section at the bottom.
interesting:
sergio: .466
brandon: .456
rudy: .591
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
Difference between eFG and TS%
I tend to think eFG measures how good of a shooter you are and TS% measures how efficient you are scoring the ball.
Of course both stats need to be take in context the number of shots and the role a player plays on the team.
It’s early in the season, I wouldn’t put much thought into those eFG stats.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
I like TSP
because it takes into account FTs and 3s, while efg just takes into account 3s.
Boomshakalaka
yeah
i guess the main difference is eFG is purely shots from the floor, and TS adds in free throws also. so, i think the name of ‘True Shooting’ is slightly misleading, is should be ’True Scoring" or something.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
one more thing
comparing the stark difference in brandon’s number between the two would really seem to advocate he takes less of those long twos and try to get it to the rim more.
"I saw him in the face." – Sergio, when asked about how the latest Rodriguez-to-Fernandez alley-oop came to be.
I think more stats have to be factored in.
TS% is a good stat IMO. However, it only says things up to a certain point.
For example, Przybilla can’t create his own shot. He doesn’t shoot anything further than 5 feet from the basket. He has historically turned the ball over in roughly 20% of his possessions (TOV%). Except for last season, he has been a liability at the FT line. All he does is pick up garbage baskets from dump-offs and offensive rebounds (for the most part). He is an offensive liability.
Roy, however, creates his own shot easily. He can be a volume scorer. He creates easy shots for his teammates because he is a good and willing passer who collapes defenses. He rarely turns the ball over, offsetting his mediocre TS%. Therefore, he is a very strong offensive player, even though he prefers the mid-range jumper a little too much IMO.
I think TS% combined with turnover rate and usage rate paints the more complete picture. Aldridge, Outlaw, and Roy are historically very strong in turnover rate and usage rate, and that is likely why they’ve been a positive in offensive adjusted +/- despite all shooting a subpar TS. Obviously, these three stats combined still don’t paint the entire picture, but I don’t think TS by itself tells enough.
that's why the Blazers offensive efficiency has been so good...
… despite the low TSP’s from so many key players.
Boomshakalaka
Not enough, but good enough
TS% is more of a stat used to compare primary scorers. It’s basically useless for role players.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
This is a more complex but still bad statistic
I think it’s an interesting measure but most of the people above pointed out the conflict: what is the context of these shots?
When Joel shoots, he’s dunking essentially unopposed or getting fouled… and it looks like the formula automatically assumes a pretty good FT percentage.
When Roy shoots, it’s often an isolation play.
My point is this: one has to examine what is happening on the court to compare shots. For example, we need to isolate LMA’s post moves against PF’s and C’s into one group and compare them against other PF’s and C’s taking similar shots in one-on-one situations with a potential for help defense. LMA’s other group of shots—those essentially uncontested jumpers at the top of the key—need to be in a completely different set. Ditto for pick-and-roll, fast break, penetration drive, etc.
The core problem with all shooting statistics is that they combine wildly different kinds of shots and treat them all the same. It’s as if one were rating NFL QBs and treating 5yd screen pass completions the same as 20yd slant patterns. Foolish.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
If I were LMA, I would started to practice two things:
1.- Using both hands to score while posting and,
2.- Improve the feet moves to improve the low posting game.
In order to do these two things he can see Gasol’s game.
I’m sure he would be much more efficient and will draw many more fouls that he is getting right now. He is still young. It will be one of the things Blazers need in the future to be a tittle contender.
Absolutely,
I also think that he is working on this actively. He only averaged 14 or so points in college and that was mostly on his mid range , fade away jumper so the fact that we are even talking about his low post game now is not really indicative of him being a bad player , in fact he is just expanding his repretoir which indeed is crucial to our overall success.
Sophia
"Feminism encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcreaft, destroy capitalism, and become lesbians. [speech at GOP Presidential Convention 1992] Rev. Pat Robertson
by BlazerFan1 on Nov 17, 2008 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's easy to over mathematize things...
……………………….. The long and short of it is this: LMA and Frye and Travis and Sergio are shooting like crap. Pryz puts the ball in the hole because everything he does is 3 feet and in and he doesn’t fancy himself a 7’0" jumpshooter (unlike SOME people).
TIME FOR THE COACHES TO INTERVENE.
t
"Sergio is clearly the MJ of 3rd string point guards!" —Mortimer Pritchard
Interesting stat
but to me it seems like an example of the classic Who Wants to Be a Millionaire situation. In that show there were three lifelines: Ask the Audience, Phone a Friend, and 50-50. If you did a statistical survey you’d find that the lifeline followed by the most correct answers by percentage was far and away Ask the Audience. It was probably over 80, and that’s being conservative. Does that mean, however, that Ask the Audience was the most valuable lifeline or that the audience was, on average, more brilliant than the phoned friends or than a 50 narrowing of the answers? Not by a long shot. For the most part the contestants knew not to poll the audience on anything more complex than a Brittney Spears question because they’d be totally lost on a tough science or history question. The audience got all of the pop culture softballs while the Phone-a-Friends and 50-50 lifelines pulled the heavy weight when the prize numbers got high.
That’s pretty much how it is with Joel. His field goal percentage is phenomenal this year because he’s only shooting dunks and putbacks. Brandon’s isn’t because he’s carrying more of the offense. If you gave Joel Brandon’s role his percentage would drop faster than Paris Hilton’s panties.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 17, 2008 7:47 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Dave, I was totally lost
I couldn’t follow the Who Wants to be a Millionaire logic.
Then you got to Paris Hilton’s panties and it all made sense.
I know
Ranking players by TS% is not ranking them in terms of how good the player is, and I never suggested it was. Frankly, I’m a bit insulted that you don’t think I realize the Joel couldn’t shoot 70% in Brandon’s role.
Boomshakalaka
Just commenting on the
“Roy needs to be more efficient with his shots” thing. Roy takes inefficient shots in part because someone in this offense as it’s currently constituted has to. His .532 is actually better for the team than Joel’s ultra-impressive .718. To me that makes this stat a non-starter at this point, like using percentage of right answers following would be for Millionaire lifelines. No insult intended.
—Dave
Yup.
TS% is an interesting stat, but like many of Hollinger’s rankings doesn’t actually mean all that much. Situations are different for every player, and TS% does nothing to reflect it. There are maybe 1 or 2 players I would even consider having on my team over Roy who are above him on the TS% SG list.
Another way of framing it
rather than asking the question, “Who has a higher True Shooting % than Brandon, here or around the league” is to ask the question, “Who would have a higher True Shooting % if given the shots that Brandon has taken?” I would argue the answer is nobody on this team and few people around the league who aren’t acclaimed scorers like Kobe and Iverson.
Defenses are hounding Brandon something fierce. I’m sure he’d rather have open, gimme shots but he’s not going to get them. Neither can he simply abandon shooting altogether. That’s exactly what the defense would like to see and frankly it wouldn’t create better shots for others because then the defense could key on them. He’s had to put up more difficult shots this year. He’s been hitting a decent percentage overall—not quite up to his standard but still good enough—he’s been scoring a bundle, he’s been dishing a lot of assists, and we’ve been winning more than we should with him handling the ball and taking those shots. Overall I’ll take all of that and chalk up the True Shooting % numbers to the situation more than his own shortcomings. He may be playing better this year than in years past, all things considered.
—Dave
by Dave on Nov 17, 2008 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, the Laker world is currently in a tizzy because they don't think Kobe can hit midrange jumpers anymore... (First losses will do that to the brains of some people...)
…"Who would have a higher True Shooting % if given the shots that Brandon has taken?" I would argue the answer is nobody on this team and few people around the league who aren’t acclaimed scorers like Kobe and Iverson.
"Sergio is clearly the MJ of 3rd string point guards!" —Mortimer Pritchard
Ok...
… but wouldn’t you like to see Roy be better than the 29th most efficient scorer among shooting guards? Comparing him to other go-to-guy SGs, Wade is at .583, Kevin Martin is at .574, OJ Mayo is at .551, etc. Roy’s fine- he’s had a very nice start to his season. If he wants to go from star to MVP candidate, however, this is where the improvement needs to come.
Boomshakalaka
hmmm
thats a really good point. i kant imagin that royz the only gard in the league that catches a double team or ocational trippl team. i would be interested tu see a report on star sgz that akt as the 1rst or second skoring option for their teamz, with the majority uv their eforts facing a dbl team, or threaght there of. that might be interesting. using wade az a comparison showz obvious room for improvement tu royz game, and posibly, room for error in the thinking of anyonewho failz tu grant any weight at all tu the stat.
az iz, i think its fair tu not template my kare tu the outkum of this formula for every member of the team, but tu wholy dismiss it as useless mathamatishakisizing, when there are(may be) apropriate uses, or tu uze its flaws, (roy vs przys and shot selection) az a basis for wholesale comdenation, seams tu be a little….(spent sum tym lookn for the right wrd), basikaly, ur not trying hard tu faind the value in this stat, for what ever reason, and that would be your loss.
i think. but im wrong a lot. so dont let my endorsement of jsnake take anything away from his arguments, az ive never even talked with him. i was just convinced by the conversation above, and with daves interjection that fleshed it out for me, that this iz indead, or mor tu the point kan b a useful measure
by maid tu rek on Nov 18, 2008 6:36 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
"Ebonics" was all the rage for 15 minutes a few years ago -- so now we have "Epostics"???
i dont wanna wade thru texs what wuz sint by jr hi grrlz and wanna see sum grmmr and punctashun and evidens that languge iz engliz… i gess if u wanna be the nekz ogdun nash on the bottle cross with fatty punctashun an runon sentunzes u iz basikaly on da rite trakz and i wish u all de bess but as for me, i not gonna read that stuffz word
"Sergio is clearly the MJ of 3rd string point guards!" —Mortimer Pritchard
by timbo on Nov 18, 2008 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
........... spelt EPOSTIKZ
"Sergio is clearly the MJ of 3rd string point guards!" —Mortimer Pritchard
That was the funniest comment ever on BE...
I can barely type I am laughing so hard. I had to recommend both comments because you have to at least try to read the first before reading the second.
No offense intended to maid tu rek. It just caught me at the right moment…
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
lawl
yeah, ill jus stik tu 1 linerz :-)
by maid tu rek on Nov 18, 2008 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
oh yeah
an sumthins rilly rong with aldridge ryte now
by maid tu rek on Nov 18, 2008 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
Agree
I’m not too worried about him. It is early in the season and the team is still building its identity. Fortunately they have been picking up some wins in the process. If they, and he, still look like this in January, I will start to get nervous.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Sorry, I couldn't read you
I have spent a lot of time and money to learn english but this is toooooooooooo much.
Money quote
“Roy takes inefficient shots in part because someone in this offense as it’s currently constituted has to.”
Dave nailed it here.
Why does the offense have to be constituted that way? It’s not as if we don’t have multiple threats.
We have the offense of a two man team, instead of a team full of weapons.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
and yet...
… somehow, some way, despite all of our (my) complaining, the Blazers are still the #3 offense in the NBA on a point per possession basis.
Boomshakalaka
That tells us how good Brandon is
And Rudy. Rudy has been a big factor in that.
And I can’t overly fault Nate for over-using something that works so well. Nate’s a great coach, IMO. Doesn’t mean our offense couldn’t be better.
Perhaps as Greg gets integrated it will be.
The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.
the middle way
Brandon is way better than the 29th SG in the league. That said, this statistic, combined with what I am seeing on the court tell me that Brandon hasn’t yet found his place in this offense. Or this offense hasn’t found itself yet.
i think your right
about brandon being bettr then 29th az a sg, infact i would say that the list uv betrz wood b short. mainly cuz az dave pointed out, royz the 1srt option for points, where az amny otherz higher on that list wood only b takin a few shots per game or at the least not az many as broy.
low numbers are bc
Frye and LMA tend to shoot mid to long range jumpers a lot of the time. Majority of their long range jumpers are inside the 3pt line…this is a higher risk lower reward shot than the 3 point ball bc of the extra point. I think that is why their TS% seems low…Rudy shoots a ton of 3s and gets the bonus from the extra point figured into his percentage.
Honor Terry Porter
and that's why shooting a lot of long twos is bad
if you are going to shoot a long jumper, you might as well shoot a 3.
Boomshakalaka
I don't see the value to this statistic
It is far too narrow to be very useful. Obviously a player like Brandon who is getting the focus of opposing defences and has the job of creating his own shot is going to shoot a lower percentage than someone like Joel who shoots from right underneith the hoop when he has an open look.
I dont think we can really take anything from this in regards to Brandon’s shot selection, he does what he has been told and the team has had success so far.
I think while this may be slighty more valuable than regular field goal percentage but I think the game is far to situationally based to make any harsh judgements with such a narrow scope.
"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy
by danevan on Nov 18, 2008 1:02 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
statistic is more useful in comparing
players at a position throughout the league. How is Brandon doing compared to other NBA SGs? Or maybe compared to other SGs that have comparable totals? And how can a statistic account for heroics? And leadership?
Exactly!
For example, several other high usage shooting guards who facilitate the offense like Brandon Roy (53.2% TSP; 19.5 Assist Ratio; 27.4 Usage Rate) — such as Joe Johnson (59.6% TSP; 16.5 Assist Ratio; 27.4 Usage Rate), Dwyane Wade (58.3% TSP; 20.8 Assist Ratio; 34.0 Usage Rate), Vince Carter (57.1% TSP; 18.7 Assist Ratio; 27.5 Usage Rate), et al. — are demonstrably superior to him this season regarding offensive efficiency.
That, in all honesty, is an area of mild concern.
by AK1984 on Nov 18, 2008 6:09 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
when larry brown coached the 76ers to the finals
he had role-players like george lynch and eric snow who might make 5-6 fgs many games because they never or very rarely shot any kind of difficult or contested shot. meanwhile allen iverson might shoot 4-18 until the last 3 minutes and then make 5 straight low % crazy shots impossible to defense and win the game. 9-23 looks terrible, right? but there would be no question who was feared.
that’s an extreme example, but indicative of why the craze for statistical analysis remains somewhat of a parlour game.
michael jordan had some great games in which he shot 10-28 or even 9-25.
another factor is that if george lynch (or nicholas batum, say) misses his first 3, he may become to shoot, thereby never a) displaying the full extent of his coldness on a given night, or b) shooting himself out of this coldness. statistically, the fact that they lose the confidence to shoot when they ought to, when they are open, is neutral or in fact a plus, even though all the coaches and everyone on their team knows what is really going on.
whereas brandon roy may start out 4-14 then make his last 4, effectively winning the game and coming through in the clutch, everyone knows it, yet his line will be 8-18.
the mania to reduce subjective experience to objective data is a natural outcome of our age, but it should be recognized as a mania, irrational as such.
ignacio
by ignacio on Nov 18, 2008 5:02 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
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