Sergio, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, Oden

We saw in the pre-season how Martell and Rudy meshed together. After Oden switches to the starting lineup, you can put Pryz to the 5 in his place.

Small lineup, but it may work with opposing backup centers.

In general, I agree with most of Dave’s comments. But, I have a slightly different take.

I think the position is Martell’s. He is likely to make fewer mistakes on defense and will provide a more consistent threat on offense. If he steps it up just a bit from last season, at both ends, and plays with a bit more confidence and consistency, his skill set is a very good fit with the teams needs. I think the extension was a clear sign that the team has confidence in Martell and his role on the team.

This leaves us debating Batum vs Trout at back-up “3”, and Frye vs Trout at back-up “4”:

Batum has amazing upside potential. He has TPrince written all over him. His length and fluidity are amazing. He is going to be awesome in the open court. He needs experience and upper body strength on defense. He needs confidence and experience on the offensive end, but the guy has all the tools. His b-ball IQ and concentration seem far superior to Trout given his age and lack of experience. Trout is clearly a more complete player at this point, but over the long term, I think I would be inclined to choose Batum’s potential over Trout’s offensive repertoire. As Marty returns, Rudy develops, and eventually JBay gets off the bench ( a subject for a different post), Trout’s iso offensive skills will likely become less critical to the team. They are still valuable given how regularly the team offensive ball movement bogs down, but I think they will diminish in value over time.

At the “4”, at first glance Trout seems an obvious choice over Frye. Frye is definitely struggling. He often looks slow and foul prone on defense. He plays too far out on the floor to be a consistent force on the offensive boards. His outside shot is nice, but he is not hitting it consistently enough to be an efficient offensive option. However, Frye does have a huge advantage over Trout; he can play bigger, stronger 4s, and he can play the “5”. Given Pryz and GO’s propensity to foul and history of injuries, I think we need to have Frye on the roster. In many situations, Trout would be better to have on the floor than Frye, but if you told me we had to trade one or the other, I would say that Frye is more valuable to have on the roster than is Trout. Particularly given that Trout, no doubt has much higher trade value.

All of this leads me to repeat what I said in the subject line: Of our rotation players, I think Trout is the most expendable. I am not saying I want to trade him. I think he has unusual skills that are useful to the team in many situations, but I think the team could continue to prosper without him and I think Batum is likely a future lock-down defender and potential all-star, and I think Frye fills a more vital role for the team.

I have not been pushing for trades. In fact, I have been saying we need to see how our young guys develop in order to accurately assess our needs. I tend to think that Martell and Batum have a strong likelihood of developing into an excellent pair of SFs. Combined with Roy playing minutes at SF in a three guard line-up, I think we are solid at the 3. If we were to bring in a big-time veteran, I believe our need is more at the “1” than the “3”.

I don’t claim any great b-ball expertise, but these are my observations. I’m curious to hear other’s responses.

the one attribute I don’t think you’ve mentioned is that Outlaw is a clutch shooter when the game’s on the line. He, Roy and maybe Rudy are the only ones we have, so far. Ice water in the veins may be enough reason to keep him.

Some good analysis here. However, it also fits with another practical reality, and that is that the Blazers, not including Diogu, have 12 players that would fit into most peoples 1st and 2nd team rotations now or in the near future, and the two we’ll likely see sit will be Bayless and Batum. At the same time, because Mac likes to get Rudy on the floor for up to 30 minutes, we have a budding conflict between Frye and Outlaw for PF minutes, as Rudy/Roy take some of the SF minutes, which leaves either Outlaw or Frye with very few minutes meaning one will spend most of their time with Batum and Bayless on the bench. We then have a rising conflict between Sergio and Bayless. Sergio’s Spanish coaches recent comments, followed by other reports elsewhere, seems to indicate that if Mac wants to play Bayless at all, he’s going to have a very unhappy Sergio on this hands. Bayless, on the other hand, cannot simply be kept permanently on the bench.

We should also keep in mind that if we do decide to trade for either an SF or a PG, the position traded for will have another player not playing. If we tried to get a PG, for instance, then either Blake would be a part of the trade, or Sergio. But that still won’t solve the dilemma for Bayless.

If we tried for a SF, then two of Webster, Trout, Batum and Frye would likely be factored in to such a trade scenerio because again, two of them would be out of minutes.

Unlike some, I still haven’t made up my own mind. Frye missed the pre-season and may simply be going through a bit of a rough patch, Trout has been somewhat inconsistent which seems to always be his early season problem, and Webster hasn’t played. So, what do I know?

What I do know is that two of our forwards won’t see a lot of playing time once Webster is back, playing and in shape, and Bayless will not sit forever behind Sergio who, in turn, has made it pretty plain that if Bayless plays – then he’s going to want to move on.

Toss in LaFrentz, and I think we’ll see some trade action. If not by the 20th deadline (which I doubt), then certainly as we move into summer.

All of this could change, of course, given KP is nothing if not opportunistic, and part of trading is not what you do, but what the other team does.

Will Charlotte start shopping Wallace – as the rumor indicates could happen? What about Shane Battier, which some of you like? Another rumor has Tinsley going to Charlotte – which would give them 3 PG’s – perhaps freeing up Felton. And then, what happens if by February, some teams start to give up on the year and begin thinking about rebuilding. Look at Minnesota right now, or Dallas, or San Diego. Rough starts and unresolved issues.

1. BACKUP PF.
Teams like Celtics, Raptors, Pistons, L*kers, Suns, Hornets, Spurs, and Jazz are eight playoff teams with TwoBig lineups. Five of these are in the West and there’s a good chance Blazers wil have to go through all of these to get to the Finals. When the Blazers are serious championship contenders, LMA will be playing tougher defense against their premier PFs — and will be prone to foul trouble. Hard to conceive of success without a decent backup PF who can step in when LMA gets in foul trouble. Hard to conceive of Travis or Diogu being the backup PF to take on these premier PFs in the playoffs.

2. FOURTH QUARTER OPTIONS.
Brandon is of-course Mr Clutch. But going down the stretch who will be the other option? LMA has not developed into that presence around whom the Blazers repeatedly call Fourth Quarter plays. Greg could become an unstoppable offensive force in the post like Shaq. But these options have to materialize and the offensive sets have to gel. And separately, what are the plays/who are the options when you have only a few seconds left and cant establish the post?

3. SF CHOICE? WHAT ABOUT 2nd UNIT & SMALL BALL
Its not just about the SF choice. Travis has made a name for himself as Mr Fourth Quarter, primary scorer on the 2nd unit and key component of small ball. Martell is looked at to be a lock-down defender and fierce three point threat. Batum is 19 and is still 3 years from developing all facets of the game to be reliable for 25 minutes a game against all the different teams in this league. Each of them bring elements to the team, but as yet subtracting any of them leaves a void that the others do not back-fill.

DOES EVERY PIECE HAVE TO BE PERFECT?
Buck Williams was good but not a superstar. Jerome Kersey was good but not a superstar. Kevin Duckworth was good but not a superstar. Some question where Terry Porter falls. Yet that team made the Finals twice, and should have won it all in 1991. The current Blazers team has Oden, LMA and Roy; and very good players around them. Why not let these players grow up around each other and develop as unit(s). Why the hurry to trade?

Regardless, the entire team has to take shape to really know what are the missing pieces. Maybe the grass is plenty green already, and there really aren’t any missing pieces. Lets say that Batum goes to the end of the bench once Martell comes back. As a talented, but raw 19 yr old, is he really going to complain — much better to work real hard in practice, learn from others and keep the older players on their toes.