A Little Perspective
Reading through the last few days I've heard people ask, in essence, why we're not better than we are right now and why we're not showing better and winning more. I want to bring just a little bit of stark comparison to the table to help us get a handle on things.
If we are to lay any claim to greatness right now it has to be on the basis of our Big Three. I understand the depth argument but you can only play five players at once plus our bench is almost universally young and those players haven't played together much. There's talent there for sure, but it's far more of a future unit than our starters who, while also young, at least have established themselves somewhat in the league. And the special starters, the ones on which we base our hopes and expectations most fully, are Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden.
Obviously Oden is out right now, putting a serious dent in any hopes of immediate success on that count. But let's say he wasn't. Let's assume a reasonably healthy Oden gives us 13 points and 10 rebounds this year plus space eating in the lane. Now let's compare our Big Three to that of
Shaquille O'Neal is better than Greg Oden right now.
Amare Stoudamire is better than Lamarcus Aldridge right now.
Steve Nash is better than Brandon Roy right now.
On what basis, then, do we make the claim of superiority?
Please note, Blazer faithful, the addition of the conditional “right now”. This will not always be the case…and not just because some of those players are going to get old and retire to become sheriff of some obscure
If you look at Kobe Bryant right now he is more reliably capable of winning games than Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge combined. Would I trade Roy and Aldridge for Bryant? No. I am not a fool. But then if you ask a L*ker fan the same thing in reverse they will give you an identical answer to the word. The difference that justifies both sides and makes the viewpoints valid at the same time? The L*kers are poised to take it all right now. Blazer fans anticipate doing even better than that in the future. But again, we’re not playing in the future. We’re playing right now.
Why are we seeing losses right now? Simple: we’re not as good as the teams we’re playing right now. That won’t be the case with every team. We won’t lose every game to teams that are better than we either. We’re still going to be good enough to fight for a playoff seed this year…right now. But we don’t have a clear-cut case to argue superiority over any of the perennial playoff contenders in the West and in many cases they have a compelling argument to immediate superiority over us.
The measure of success isn’t a single win or loss today. It’s whether the team is getting better and whether they succeed in their goal of reaching the playoffs this year. Both of those have to be measured over the course of months, which we haven’t had yet.
The ride is long and it’s going to be a good one. Unless, of course, you bail out early in frustration or spend the whole time asking the NBA equivalent of “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”
Don’t make me stop this car.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I'm satisfied
I think all things considered we are right where we should be. IT definately takes some humility to realize that we aren’t that 55+ win team we all want to be, or thought we would be. That doesn’t mean we can’t win that many games, it’s just unrealistic to expect it.
Right now we shouldn’t be able to beat San Antonio, then Phoenix on back to back nights, and if we were able to do so early in the season I would eat a raw egg.
I love this team, I’m positive if I lived elsewhere I would still admire it greatly and wanna see them succeed. But Dave, can you at least say we are “ALMOST” there?
Man I love tongue tacos - Mortimer
Only thing better is Trout on a stick roasted over an open fire - annthefan
I have a pic like that of my dog - tominhawaii
by Outlaw is Rejector on Nov 1, 2008 11:45 PM PDT reply actions
I thought we'd be a 51 win team
but that was before Martell and Greg went down.
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 2, 2008 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
everyone is bagging on our players and we’re not even to the ASG.
“Travis has no D”
“Blake cannot stay in front of anyone”
“Nate should of played Rudy the entire way”
“We should trade Blake and TO for Hinrich”
“Oden is SAM BOWIE!!”
All of these people are panicking and are ready to burn the team to the ground because we have lost 2 really tough road games.
I wish we would all step back and take a breath and ENJOY the season for what it is:
A learning process that will have ups and downs and exhilerating and heartbreaking moments.
Sit back and enjoy this season and get ready for champagne corks NEXT year and not this year.
The season is here.
Travis and Blake for Hinrich sounds like a great deal.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
by Winchester on Nov 2, 2008 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
you are
an idiot, my friend. or very sarcastic
by joffthedeckk on Nov 2, 2008 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
What makes that trade proposal idiotic?
And let’s address the ideas rather than the individuals, eh?
by BlazersOrBust on Nov 2, 2008 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Really?
The Blazers talked to the Bulls about Przybilla and Outlaw for Hinrich. I’m not sure who vetoed that deal, but Reinsdorf is still a big Hinrich fan. Kirk had one bad year among many solid showings. He is an upgrade over any of the three options we have now and would immediately be our best perimeter defender. Considering we don’t need another scorer off the bench who can’t play defense or another borderline starter at point, I think that would be a pretty good trade. Also, if you are going to call someone an idiot, you might want to use better punctuation.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
not a great trade imo
i don’t think this is a great upgrade for us. his shooting percentage, particularly his 3 point percentage, leaves quite a bit to be desired as it isn’t far above league average. and while it kills me to see steve blake guard the parker’s and nash’s of the western conference, i’m not sure hinrich would do much better. frankly, just about every one of the best pgs in the nba are in the west: paul, derron williams, nash, parker, baron davis, etc. i feel like hinrich has gotten the benefit of softer matchups, and i gotta imagine he’s getting his butt handed to him in practice every day by rose. finally, the fact that he was the point guard on a team that was supposed to win the eastern conference and they finished 16 games under .500 shows that he’s probably not the assertive leader at the position that we could probably use until broy takes over in the fourth quarter.
i don’t think we should trade away assets like outlaw just for a mediocre upgrade at any position. if we’re gonna make a move, lets make sure it matters
Um...
Kirk Hinrich has a better career 3 point percentage than Martell Webster or even Chris Paul. It’s not really a mediocre upgade especialy when it comes to defense. I’m not sure what you mean by “benefit of softer matchups”. Hinrich was given the task of guarding Dwyane Wade durring the playoffs when the Bulls beat the Heat. Pat Riley said Hinrich reminded him of Michael Cooper on defense. I’m not sure we are talking about the same person.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
hmmmmmm
since when is martell the gold standard in 3 point shooting in the nba?
and being given the task of guarding a great player doesn’t make you great at defense; wade averaged 24-6-5 in that series. this was all despite an injured shoulder and knee, both of which required surgery in the off-season. i would say that series reflects poorly on hinrich, if anything.
Martell is the best three point shooter on the team, no?
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
I would take TO + Blake for Hinrich in a heartbeat.
Idiotic? Really?
Hinrich would be a big upgrade at the point. Hinrich could conceivably start at the point for a championship contender. Blake, as far as he’s come in the last year or so, could not. He’s a pretty guard point guard for a pretty good team. But he puts a ceiling on your potential success if he’s the starter.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Our "Big 3" really isn't that good (yet)
If our “Big 3” were the only descent players on our team, we would defiantly miss the playoffs again this year. The real strength of this Blazer team is that the #4-#10 players are better than almost any other team’s #4-#10 players. The truth is, we need to have a lot of depth to make up for the weakness of our top players relative to most of the other playoff team.
I concur...
……………………… The question isn’t whether Team A’s stars are better than Team B’s stars, but whether Team A is better than Team B.
All things being equal, I think the sum of the Blazers’ components is better than the sum of the Suns’ components RIGHT NOW.
But all things are not equal — games are played on the road, games are played back-to-back, players are injured…
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
two of our "big 5" are injured
it’s hard to jump to any conclusions (positive or negative) right now
by Bust a Bucket on Nov 2, 2008 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions
rewind....
roy and aldridge for k*be…..well?
they’d have to throw in a draft pick…but… :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Well
In my opinion Blazers will miss the play-offs if Oden is not healthy and we keep on getting little injuries to different players. It will mess with our chemistry to always miss key guys. Maybe next year we can make the play-offs. Im waiting to see what KP has in mind with the cap we have. In general im happy with the team. I think that Roy has to step up this year as a leader. And that means that he has to add new weapons to his arsenal. What i want to see more Roy do is run the break, cuz we have players that can finish. I want to see Blazers get out off that young mentality and start to get a little nasty.
Hallelujah Dave
Unfortunately, you’ll probably have to write that a couple more times this year. Has Anybody noticed the 3 teams we’ve played so far? Mostly without 2 starters and 2 games on the road? We need to see the big picture! I also want it now. But we will still have big wins this year (like the one over S.A.) and I feel like this year, we actually should have some gimmies that may not have been the case even last year.
If we can fight through this early part of the season with a couple big wins I’ll be satisfied seeing that we’re without 2 starters. Last year we were 5 and 12 with no road wins and finished .500! Patience is a virtue, let’s enjoy the ride and the subtle improvements/growth and do our job of protecting the Garden like I witnessed Friday. That place was shakin!
"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy
by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 2, 2008 1:04 AM PDT reply actions
+1
Shake The Rose Garden, Bbaby!
Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around
by Lizzy Lowblow on Nov 2, 2008 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
Yea!
Now it’s only 1:00 o’clock!
"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy
by courtsideerrandboy on Nov 2, 2008 1:06 AM PDT reply actions
What is becoming more and more clear is how easy the Blazers can be stopped by good teams
Our bench players are stronger than most in the league, outscoring Phoenix’s 35 to 14 last night (everybody but Diaw was a no-show). But as soon as most starters were in on both sides our unit didn’t look too good. Great teams find a way to play their game and beat the opposition almost every night. We can be happy if the opposition lets us play like we want.
If a team manages to take away option A (Brandon) by crowding him and takes away option B (LaMarcus) a bit by pushing him out to the perimeter, we don’t win the game with Steve, Travis and Joel taking shots. Something in that first unit lineup needs to change to get more high-percentage attempts. Brandon can’t beat defenses all by himself when everybody defers to him until the shot clock expires and he ends up hoisting heavily contested jumpshots as the option of last resort. And I’m not sure just putting Oden back in solves all the problems. It helps in offensive rebounding under the basket which was atrocious last night (esp. Rudy takes good care of long bouncing rebounds). And maybe makes us a little tougher to beat on defense. But it would also slow things further down to the point of even less flow. How to bring back that flow needs to be addressed in designing that unit both in terms of personnel as well as strategy/sets.
Of course, the thing is that Travis isn't really the starter -- nor will Blake be in the medium- to long-term...
What is becoming increasingly clear to me is that the 1 HAS to be a crasher on offense. TONY PARKER is the role model… That gets the ball into the paint resulting in short shots, short rebounds (offensively recoverable), or open looks on the perimeter. THAT’S what’s missing. (That and a commitment by the power forwards to stop playing the game of small forwards…)
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
there you go
a very good point….and one that often goes unnoticed…..the point guard is your offense starter…..and although Roy can fill this somewhat, he does not have the quickness and he’s a combo 2 that could give other team fits, if you had a penetrating point guard…..you have the advantage over the defense because you know what you are going to do….continuing to rely on taking what the defense gives you, switches the advantage back to the defense……(they will always want you to take the jump shot and when that’s all you do, they can overplay the jump shot as well)…Note: this is why Phoenix switched to zone defense and Nate did not adjust….game over
.Nate gets out coached quite often…..for a guy that is great at teaching the fundamentals, he never seems to get that translated out on the floor…..and he needs some offensive input….It’s way too predictable and often stagnate…..
I have the patience to wait on this team….there is a lot of potential (Understatement)….What I would like to see, in the meantime is hard work, hustle, and inspired play….then if you get beat by a better team…then that’s the way it is…..move on , learn and beat them the next time
by 67 on Nov 2, 2008 9:02 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
nate for terry porter?
j/k. i’ll try not to be so reactionary after each game. But what about don nelson?
I don't know
who it would be, if anyone at all…….I continue to be very puzzled by some of Nate’s actions or lack of, in some cases…..
He is somewhat stubborn…..and never seems to be able to make adjustments during certain game situations….He has a suspect offensive plan (no flow) …. one would think, it should be defense first and the offense will take care of itself….we don’t get the easy hoops that comes from good “D” and hustle plays…..We need those easy hoops and having to continually work that hard on offense just to generate a lower % jump shot makes no sense…..
by 67 on Nov 2, 2008 6:09 PM PST up reply actions
I found it interesting
to discover that the fans over at Pounding the Rock spend a lot of time complaining about Tony Parker. Can you believe it?
Mostly that he shoots too much and never passes. Probably a fair complaint, but wow.
Which Blazer guard does this sound like?
Mostly that he shoots too much and never passes.
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
B Rex
Whatta ya think?
Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around
by Lizzy Lowblow on Nov 2, 2008 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
I want the Rex = Tony Parker style PG theory to be SERIOUSLY tested sometime this year...
……………….. Not five minutes of garbage time — SERIOUSLY tested with the big kids.
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
Enjoy the ride. Patience my friend patience.
We are still the 2nd youngest team in the NBA. Let this team grow and enjoy the ride. We don’t love our blazers game by game – we love them on the whole package.
We got to this place of happiness from what they did on the court and in the community. Don’t make them all leave because we are selfish bandwagoners who want a championship today – not grow. Best we can expect is 5-10 game improvement every year without doing trades. If we only build from the draft, thats it folks. You have to have 5-10 years of experience at all the key players. We are close but not their yet.
I believe in the development of the key players and we will add leadership if not mid season, this off season.
after 3 games its not time to tear it up. After 40 games you are what you are. Wait til the all star break then make judgement. And if we were all GM’s etc – you wouldn’t be on a blog. Be a fan and just root for them
Obvious thins so far.
1) TO has not improved. more minutes do not = more production. Looks lost when he’s not the go to guy on the court.
2) LA is still learning. When he learns to be more physical down low – Watchout. Tonight he got beatup by a top league talented VET.
3) Pryz gets screwed again. Another 2 phantom calls tonight. Shaq trips on his big feet and the ref can’t see that happening without calling a foul.
4) Brandon struggles against physical 2 guards. The likes of Bell and Artest take him out of rhythm but somehow improves this year and still got 20 although it didn’t feel like it. When he learns to get 30 in this kind of game. Then we will have arrived.
5) Lastly, We are by far a young home winning team. When we start to take games like this and make them a game that comes down to the last possession, Thats when we are going to become good. We were too far out of reach at the end of the elite teams. Can’t wait to see these come down to the end in the future. LIke San Antonio did to us on friday. If you can take it down to a final possesion – we will win more then lose.
We will find out in 2 months, not yet. We will get better. How can’t we with 6 back to backs in the first 2 months. – That schedule is RAW and if we win 9-10 games in the first 20 – Jump on the bus and enjoy the ride.
It's actually already pretty close to parity with the "good" teams like Phoenix and SA...
When we start to take games like this and make them a game that comes down to the last possession, Thats when we are going to become good.
The thing is — circumstances dictate results in the NBA. You KNEW that was going to be a loss since it was a road back-to-back against a hungry team.
Why DOES the NBA schedule games like that, by the way. There are TRAVEL DAYS in baseball, which is far less strenuous… The Blazers have to fight the unwinnable fight, and then loiter for three days before playing their next game. It’s downright bizarre.
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
I agree
We played Tue then Fri, Sat, and now Wed and Thur next week, only two being in Portland and those aren’t even in a row. It doesn’t seem like those back to backs have to be that way.
The only thing that makes it “even” is that all the teams have stretches that are similar. It does seem like the NBA could put a better product on the floor every night if they at least avoided back to backs in different cities. That would make those eastern road trips mighty long though.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Most MLB teams own their arenas
NBA arenas are shared sometimes by as many as three teams (e.g. the Staples Center). This year, they also host the world figure skating championships. Resulting in a nightmare to organize and coordinate the schedule for the Lakers and Clippers. Not even the Celtics own their arena, but the local NHL team whose name escapes me right now. Then there are other events in the arenas, such as concerts or the annual rodeo show in San Antonio, forcing the Spurs on a very long road trip.
Actually the Blazers are in a good situation as the main user of the Rose Garden, and thus doesn’t have such a bad schedule this year in terms of rest days and back-to-back games on multiple nights. E.g. the Jazz have a harder schedule. That all the tough teams come now is another story.
Here is a nice little tool to analyze rest days: http://www.nbastuffer.com/2008-2009_Schedule_Rest_Days_Analysis.html
by Norsktroll on Nov 2, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The Bruins are Boston's hockey team.
The Bruins are Boston’s hockey team ( beat my Vancouver Canucks 1-0 recently ). On hockey don’t the Winter Hawks have games at the Garden, or are they at the Coliseum?
by CanadianBlazerfan on Nov 2, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
Thank you, Dave
This needed to be said. Another point that people are forgetting is that we were an absolutely horrendous road team last year. Outside of the streak, we were 10-27 on the road last year. And even counting the streak, we managed to beat a total of 3 teams that made the playoffs last year on the road (Utah, Denver, and Atlanta), and two of those were 8-seeds and Atlanta finished below .500.
I’m not saying this isn’t something we’ll have to figure out, but the Suns are still a solid playoff team, even if their championship window is looking pretty closed. To expect us to pull a 180 degree turn from last year and come out and start beating these teams on the road on the second night of a back to back is a little unrealistic. It’s a learning process, and hopefully by the end of these first 20 games we’ll have beaten a couple playoff teams on the road and we won’t have to think about this anymore.
I can't believe some ARE freaking out
We could easily be 0-3 and lost each game handily and it wouldn’t be a big deal. We just played a great Lakers team, the friggin’ SPURS (and WON!), and played decent-but-not-great against a Suns team that always kicks our butt.
I understand the worry about Oden— it’s another injury, albiet a minor one, but any injury to Oden is magnified in importance.
But otherwise… man. What did people expect. Stuart Scott mentioned this was the first time in NBA history a team has met 54+ win teams for the first 5 or so games; in other words, the toughest start to a season EVER. You take away Raef (which you should), we are THE youngest team in the league (unless those age-stats do remove Raef from the equation). Playing veteran, good teams, we can struggle— though we got the talent to still win, like we did against the Spurs.
We’re going to be great at home against anybody. We’re gonna win more on the road. Oden will help a lot, and make a world of difference for LMA and Roy. Rudy has been awesome, especially for a rookie. Despite all that, we have an INCREDIBLY tough schedule to start the year.
It isn’t necessarily fair, but it is what it is. Our record will even out as the schedule gets easier, the players gel, and Oden gets in shape. IN THE MEANTINE— we gotta realize who we are playing, who is out, and ride out the storm.
I still got 51 wins penciled in, even if we lost these first 3 games. Our talent will steal some wins to start, but we can’t get too out of whack if it don’t.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Nov 2, 2008 7:14 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Beating playoff teams on the road is rare
The formula for making the playoffs is winning at home and beating the weaker teams in the league on the road. To get a better record than last year, the Blazers just need to beat a few more playoff teams at home and beat a few more lottery teams on the road.
BTW, I think that Suns team is gonna be slightly better than last years suns, as long as they can figure out how to survive without Nash in the game. Stoudemire is one of the top five players in the league. Even if Kobe can make more amazing plays, he’s not going to do it as efficiently as Stoudemire. Barnes gives them some more length and athleticism on the wing. Shaq looks motivated and they are feeding him in the post enough to keep him interested. Nash can still do what Nash does even if he’s lost a step. I think the Suns will decline less than the Spurs and Mavs.
If Shaq can stay relatively healthy that looks like a deadly 2 man game down low for them
I also have always like Matt Barnes
Rooo-D!
Come on Dave,
Baby point guard is getting older and you are going to need to have these phrases correct. It’s, ’Don’t make me turn this car around.’ Which is sometimes followed by, ‘I mean it, I’ll end this {insert vacation, day trip, etc.} right now.
I’m just looking out for your future, Dave. :)
And you don't eat crackers in the bed of your future, otherwise you might get....all scratchy.
by shenanigans on Nov 2, 2008 7:53 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
He can do what my mom would do
She would either swing wildly with her right hand or she would do a sneak attack and reach back and pinch our thighs.
This space for rent.
by tominhawaii on Nov 2, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Well said...
Losing the second night of a back-to-back on the road against the Suns without two starters is not a reason to panic. Let’s enjoy the ride. This has the potential to be a good team for a long time.
I wonder....
I wonder how much better Roy and Aldridge are gonna get. They are in their third season. Neither player came straight from high school. Aldridge might develop a touch physically. Roy has hit his peak physically. They’ve both had a seasons getting major minutes. They aren’t young players hiding behind veteran talent (idk, like J.R. Smith).
I think Aldridge has a little more room to grow than Roy. Whatever Roy averages in points this year will be within 2 points of his best year, most likely. It’ll probably be within 1 of his best in assists and rebounds. Aldridge might have another 3 points ppg or so left in his game (say 24 ppg?), might learn to be a better passer, and more clever defender, but it’s unlikely he’s gonna start rebounding any better than he is now.
I think the team will improve a lot from what it is today, but not because Roy or Aldridge are going to be brighter stars. The possible reasons for major improvement that I see:
1) Oden
2) An added a piece at PG or SF. Before the season, I was sure the added piece was going to be a SF. Now, I’m not sure.
3) The rookies are going to improve a lot. Oden, Bayless, Fernandez, and Batum is a ridiculously talented rookie class. The Kings would be happy to start over and build around those four players, no? Even if Bayless isn’t a perfect fit for this team, he’s talented enough to be traded for someone that is.
4) Synergy: team offense and team defense. I think the Blazers have enough talent to beat the Suns on the road this year, but they needed a better game plan than what they showed last night. I don’t blame Nate for that, though. A better game plan means figuring out how to really take advantage of the Suns defensive weaknesses and how to shut down their strengths. The Blazers still need to learn the the basics of team offense and team defense. They are not ready for advance strategefication.
Safe to say
Athletes hit their peak around the age of 27 to 28. Aldridge is 23 and Brandon 24. People were saying this about Brandon last year and he looks better in two games (the Laker game wasn’t a good sample for where this team is.)
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
The team is talented enough to be in a position to win or close...
I don’t think that is the issue. I think we need to take a look at our coaching. We were horrorible against the zone in the first half and I didn’t see any adjustments.
We were great in the open, fast break but we slowed it down. We were down 12 with 4 minutes…how are we suppose to come back milking the shot clock?
I still believe this team to win 48 games but the last three game was an eye opener for how our in-game coaching adjustments wasn’t there.
They'll hit their stride during the 2nd half of the season
and bag the 7th or 8th seed.
If this was a sprint they’d be in trouble. But it’s a marathon so i look for them to do well on the back stretch.
3 games against 3 elite teams. Please save the over analyzing for later.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
So where do we fit?
Teams clearly above us now: San Antonio, LA, Phoenix, New Orleans, Utah, Houston
Teams clearly below us now: Sacramento, Ok City, Minnesota, Memphis,
Teams we are fighting for a playoff spot: Denver, Golden State, LA Clippers, Dallas
The six elite teams may have off nights, they may have injuries that give us an advantage on a given night, they may be on the second game of a back to back, and so on. We beat San Antonio in part because Ginobli is out and through three quarters, none of the other role players stepped up. We may have off nights or any other factors and lose to a team below us, but the real judge of where we are is how we compete against the 4 teams we are fighting for one of the last 2 spots.
The best part of the season
I think we are starting to get an idea of who is going to be a part of the rotation for the future. It is safe to say that Rudy is going to be an impact player in the NBA. It didn’t take long to learn that. We need a bit more time on Batum, but I am pretty close to saying he is at least the future stopper off the bench. Joel has proved his value and isn’t going anywhere. And I think Frye has shown he is going to make room for himself in the rotation. He looks more comfortable on the floor than last year and when he gets his conditioning back from his surgery his shot will start falling more consistently.
So I think instead of wins and losses, let’s try to look at this early part of the season as a time to see what guys can do and who belongs and who might not. I am seeing eight that i think are in the lead:
Oden, Roy, LMA, Rudy, Joel, Batum, Webster (due to signing), Frye.
Outlaw, Blake, Sergio, and Bayless can still make a case for their inclusion in the rotation but we look the best when a combo of those eight guys are on the floor. (I should say six since two of those guys are out.)
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
nice thought but really?
If we’re not to freak out now, then after? of course some (I) will panic and want to throw a wrench into the machine thinking it’ll fix it. That’s what some (I) do. It doesn’t mean that We’re (I’m a) crap fan or a person, it just means that that is what sports do to us (me).
Creates the little extra (meaningless) part of my life that I can panic and rave about given that direction of the wind.
The whole while having a passion about it to the point of obsession. (is there a diffrence?)
Some,(I) will alway’s call out the irritating parts to this game becuase that is why alot of people (I) like this game, love the team, and obsess about forward progress…..alot of the times we (I) are wrong…but that’s what makes some of you…right.
and that’s why we (I) love this place!!!! (and game)
is that legit?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
You are absolutely wrong
Just kidding. I get your point but it does get frustrating to read that people are already talking about coaches that will fit this team better. It might be a tad early to start this discussion but that is my opinion.
We are going to lose games and we are going to take time to adjust to each other but I don’t think there is a question that they will get better as the year progresses. The positives: Rudy and Batum will contribute this year. Webster will return and the first unit will look a lot better with him in there instead of Travis. Oden will return and progress throughout the season. They are 1-2 and not 0-3.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
I agree completely with Dave.
I like this team – and see a lot of positives developing. In the first place, we knew we had a deeply talented young team, and that our bench was going to be a real strength this year. Very few second teams are going to outplay it. Secondly, we’re not that far away from beating Phoenix on their home court. A swap of six points would won this game. 25 minutes from Oden and Webster would very likely have accomplished that. On the one hand, Stoudamire could not bull his way through Oden in the way that he did. He’s not that strong and that tall. Webster, in turn, defends and plays the SF spot better, and that would’ve added points to our side and subtracted a few from the other. At the same time, the second team would play better if the first team was not starting two of their players. Injuries, of course, happen.
Then, we’re seeing a payoff with Fernandez and Batum. Granted, they need time, but clearly, Fernandez adds a lot of value, and Batum will continue to improve – adding more. Keep in mind that if Fernandez keeps getting the minutes, that he’s going to be clearly in the hunt for ROY. Whether it’s 20 points against the Suns, or 8 rebounds against the Spurs, he simply contributes. When Mac said he stayed up all night after first seeing him at the Olympics diagramming plays – you can clearly see why. And we’re still learning to take advantage of his talents.
The Sergio – Bayless argument is more of a manufactured argument than a real one. Sergio has experience and should be ahead of Bayless – and is. The baby bull is the least experienced player on the Blazers – even Batum has more. Mac will keep giving him game experience at 5 or 6 minutes a game, or some when we have blow-outs, and as he changes his game to meet his new requirements – that obvious talent will start to come out. Sure he’s tentative. He’s being asked to change his game more than any other player on the Blazers – and that takes awhile.
Let’s face it. We started the season against three of the strongest teams in the NBA. All are veteran squads with veteran players. We beat one, were competitive with the second, and let the opening night jitters kill the third. Imagine if we’d started out with three 500 teams – or below. We play playoff teams something like 16 times in the first 24 games. Don’t forget we’ll pick those games up on the non-playoff teams later. And as we do, we’ll be better.
Keep in mind that if Fernandez keeps getting the minutes, that he’s going to be clearly in the hunt for ROY. Whether it’s 20 points against the Suns, or 8 rebounds against the Spurs, he simply contributes
I clearly agree with this and I think the answer then becomes that ROY will be our point guard because he’s steady and aware. Then Rudy can be the focal point and ROY won’t have to take over at the end, You’ll have Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Aldridge and Oden on the floor – that good for both ends of the floor and a W. Where Outlaw is stricly offense, Webster most definitely fits in this picture, but honestly – the scrappieness of Batum and Fernandez are what we NEED – the add an experienced byless in 2-3 years- That could be a dangerous team.
Can't tell
if you are being funny or not. He meant Rookie of the Year, not Brandon Roy. Unless you meant that the Rookie of the Year, Rudy, will be the point…
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Let’s assume a reasonably healthy Oden gives us 13 points and 10 rebounds this year plus space eating in the lane.
13 and 10 looks like shangri la
honor terry porter
That’s about Howard’s rookie numbers. So it’s pretty reasonable considering Greg is already stronger especially in his lower body.
howard played 82 games his rookie year… and every year after that….
it will feel more likely once we get the first 13 and 10 under his belt i supppose…
honor terry porter
by Ben Golliver on Nov 2, 2008 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
I have good hopes that Greg will post a 13/10/2/2 this year
Howard’s steady improvement and stamina is impressive. Though he didn’t start in one game in his second season :)
Guess nobody can label him injury prone…
14 and 10 remains a reasonable estimate, although maybe a bit optimistic.
FREE SERGIO -- Trade Him or Cut Him NOW!!!
lol i saw that… was that for disciplinary reasons? that’s weird…. howard also average 32+ mpg his rookie year… no small feat for so young and big a man
honor terry porter
by Ben Golliver on Nov 2, 2008 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
"On what basis, then, do we make the claim of superiority?"
Answer: Playing as a TEAM and not as individuals.
The Europeans have done it against some of our Olympic Teams.
This year we amassed our best group of players and pressured them to play as a team.
When the Blazers play GOOD TEAM ball out there…. They are superior!
When evaluating...
this team or players on this TEAM, we shouldn’t loose site of…“TEAM” play.
How much “Synergism” does each one provide when they become part of the unit?
Do they make their teammates better? Do they make the defense or offense….better?
by spencerbutte on Nov 2, 2008 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
+1 for 'Synergism'
Been a few years since i’ve seen anyone use that in their vernacular repertoire.
when i get sad, i stop being sad & become awesome again. true story.
nice post, Dave.
I looked at the schedule before the season started, and decided that even an 0-5 start would not be something to be worried about. And that was before Oden was out. ll of these teams were in the playoffs last year and all of them are expected to finished ahead of the Blazers this year.
And let’s not forget that this Phoenix loss came the night after a tight win against another good team. Early as it is, a certain amount of fatigue should be factored in.
The last two games have gotten me excited!
I still believe we can win fifty. We are young, inexperienced, and injured right now and we still brought game against two of the best in the west. By the middle of the season both our starting five and backups will be playing much tighter together. Anyone who believes we should win against the best now because we have more talent in our top ten players then the other team is thinking like trader Bob. We need the experience, chemistry, and training that we will only get with time.
The need for a point guard to be able to draw 'help D' to be effective
Watching these first few games, and last season, it seems as if Steve Blake does not pose a viable threat to score except as a set shooter, and other teams know it. As a result, his defender can spend most of his time and effort clogging passing lanes and can also play tight on the ball d without worrying about Blake blowing by him for a score. Even when he does get into the paint, it seems so unlikely that he will successfully drive to the basket that he doesen’t draw any help d off of other Trailblazers. As a result, it rarely seems as if Blake’s entry passes lead to easy buckets for his teammates, because he never really draws the defense out of position.
I don’t know whether Rudy is the answer, but I couldn’t help but notice that after three NBA games, he is already drawing WAY more help d from other teams than Blake or Sergio, due to his ability to put it on the floor, finish at the rim, and hit from outside. As a result, the game becomes easier for fellow Trailblazers who are left unguarded(sometimes with open lanes to the hoop).
Blake seems like a great guy and teammate, but the Trailblazers will be hard-pressed to consistently beat the good teams in the league without a point guard who makes the game easier for the other Trailblazers. Maybe Rudy or someone else on the roster can fill that role. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-season trade after the coaching staff has had a chance to see how all the current pieces can fit together in all their various combinations.
My observations
Brandon Roy:
He looks more quicker this year. His jump shot has improved, and he whines more to the refs this year. The other he plays good with all teammates except Sergio and Rudy. I think that when Rudy playes with Roy he is limited to a jump-shooter. And Sergio likes to create so that takes away the ball from Roy.
LMA:
He looks stronger this year and goes inside the paint with determination this year. I think that he can be that player that gets pissed when Blazers get pushed around. I like that he does not disappear when Oden is in the game. And Oden really makes LMA look good.
Steve Blake:
He is a good 3 point shooter, and can get the ball inside to our bigs. His defense is not that good. I think that he lost some muscle mass and thats why he falls down when someone crosses him over.
Sergio:
I really like him this year. He and Rudy really click together. He is more under control this year and can hit the 3 too. His shot really has improved. I think he will be with us long term.
Rudy:
He looks ready to play with the big boys. He plays good with everybody especial with Webster, LMA, and Sergio. He does not do that much when he is in the game with B-Roy. I really like how he plays smart and I hope he does not loose that art of game thats been lost in USA basketball, thats moving with out the ball, and creating something out of nothing.
Greg Oden:
I think that he is really out of shape. He looks good when only dunking the ball. Even Shaq runs the floor faster than him. i think he got his foot sprain cuz his body is not used to moving in different directions at the same time. So his muscles that were not used for a long time just give up and he gets the injury.
Outlaw:
he looks that same to me. He is kind of out of shape. I like that he learned how to get to the line more. And i think that his 3 point shot has Improved. I really would like him to improve his defense. And I kind-of dont like him in the starting unit.
Batum:
This guy has confidence in him self. I like how he cover space on defense. And like that he can find open gyus when he is in trouble. If he can improve his 3 point shot he can start for the team. I dont know whats going to happen when Martell comes back.
Thrilla:
he is a rebounding machine but has problem rebounding against big guys like Shaq. Man If he could score inside he would be awesome. He is kind of slow when he gets the ball. But he is a good center and I dont want to trade him.
Frye:
he is the same as last year. He is a cool guy and would feel sorry for him if Blazers traded him.
Bayless:
I think that he is kind of lost when he gets on the floor cuz when he thinks that he has to do something other than what he did before to get playing time. I like his defense and he will get better. I dont think that he will mess with the teams chemistry. He is one of the kind player on this team. I like him allot cuz he reminds me a little of myself. he likes everything to be perfect and shows his displeasure with something less than that.
It is early. Some tough opponents on the schedule.
It is early. I’m not panicking. Playoff spots aren’t on the line now. It sucks we are off to a bad start. We do have tough opponents on the schedule. Utah next, and they are a good divisional rival. Plus it is early. I’m not bailing and asking if we are there yet. Early on, tough schedule or not, we have to take everyone seriously. Things may not be clicking well now, but we’ll get it going.
by CanadianBlazerfan on Nov 2, 2008 2:51 PM PST reply actions
I appreciate Dave's "reality check", but...
I think the bigger problem is that fans are basing their opinions of the team almost solely on the wins/losses and individual stats, especially of key players. While wins/losses CAN be a good tool for judging performance of a team, you CERTAINLY need a larger sample size than just 3 games. Likewise, individual stats CAN help tell the relative contribution of each player, all players (even hall-of-famers) have ups and downs, and stats alone cannot tell the WHOLE picture. There is a reason why players like James Posey, Robert Horry, and Derek Fisher have won championships on multiple teams – despite the fact that their personal stats may be dwarfed by tons of guys who’ve never been to the finals. Reality NBA is NOT fantasy NBA, and players bring value that may be correlated, but is NOT directly tied to their ppg, rebounds, steals, etc.
For me, I will judge this team by how competitive and fun they are to watch. The W’s are nice, and I personally believe that if the Blazers don’t make the playoffs then they probably have underachieved relative to their talent and potential, but the joy I get from the Blazers is in watching players I like and can respect play well and be competitive.
Now, I think the L*kers game was difficult to watch, and not just because Oden got hurt. We didn’t play a good game AT ALL. But, as I said even the greatest have bad nights, so it’s way too early to freak out. That is not how I want the Blazers to play, even if somehow, the stars had aligned and we got the win. Conversely, if we play a good game, hard fought, competitive game and ultimately fail to win, I’ll still be pleased with the team.
by the_mad_nader on Nov 2, 2008 2:55 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
+1
it’s good to hear this…I was beginning to think I was the only one with these thoughts….Blazer fans want wins (understandable)…but basketball fans want to see good play and are usually not clouded by fanatic vision…..(although there is nothing wrong with being a fanatic)…..the thing about good play is; although it is entertaining and fun to watch, it usually has a by-product…….Wins……
so get those steals, dive on the floor for loose balls, hustle back on “D”, slash to the hoop for an easy 2…and yes hit the open jumper (out of the flow of the offense, of course)….this will bring a smile to my face…..you might get beat…..but it won’t be because you didn’t play hard…..
sorry I'm stupid
That +1 was meant for the_mad_nader so you get a rec and a new +1
by 67 on Nov 2, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions
hopefully expectant
I have mixed feeling about the season so far. I like Blake personally, but have never been totally sold on him as the point. I just don’t see enough offensive creativity. Steady is the word for him, but not much more. Sergio is better offensively, at least for the team, but not individually. So the fisrt I heard about a rumor of Hinrich for Blake and Outlaw, it made me ponder. I actually like the idea. I see Hinrich as an upgrade offensively and defensively compared to Blake. Likely just a rumor though.
I also have to temper my expections of fans on a fansite. Not sure how anyone could have expected us to be 3-0 at this point. This is about where I expected us to be early. We lost to two excellent teams on the road. This is where we fit at this point. Sure, Nate is figuring out the line-up. He has a ways to go. With Martell and Greg coming back, it won’t end soon. I think Sergio took him by surprise a little bit this year. More was expected from TO, and Batum came on much quicker than expected. LMA and Brandon are doing fine. They have been soldi and fairly consistent. We talk about a first and second unit, as if they all come in together and leave together. We all know that’s not the case and never was. The substitutions haven’t happeend that way either. It’s just a cute way of saying who starts and who is the back-up.
This will take a little time and I can be patient. I hate the losses, but if I see some good games I can be patient. I really believe the first half of the season will be a tough struggle, but I soncereyl believe it will get better. I’d like to see Greg come off the bench and get 25-30 mpg. I wouldn’t wroyy about th eminutes though. Just ease him in a little though. And force that aerobic and anerobic conditioning. And this notion that injuries damage the chesmisty of the team. Really, injuries are part of the game. Coaches always have needed to adjust for injuries. It’s why there are more than 5 players. Most teams can talk about injuries destroying chemisty, but they simpy have to be dealth with. Better worrying about things you can change.
This isn't the Lakers,...
"It's not Show time. It's GO time!"

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