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Some preseason thoughts

It's finally here. The first preseason game of the year. We finally get to see Rudy, Greg and Bayless wear Blazer uniforms and play another team. The wait has been, what... 2, 3 years? It feels like it at least.

Let's talk preseason first though. It's guaranteed that tomorrow, some people will be talking about the game in extreme terms (player x was great, player y sucked, Portland will either miss the playoffs or win the title, etc). My goal here is to talk about tempering expectations (in both directions), what things to look for, and what things not to look for.

1. Teams may not be playing to win

This sounds sacrilege (even in preseason), but is nonetheless true. Preseason games are all about training, conditioning, and evaluating your players. If you're losing by 5, and inserting Brandon Roy will win you that game, it will probably be a loss. Brandon's a known commodity, and those players on the court have some unproven aspect that needs viewing. Those players will absolutely want to win the game, and will do everything they can to do so. It will give you a chance to see how those players perform in the clutch. But at the end of the day, the game doesn't matter.

2. Unusual Lineups and matchups will mess with stats

This will happen repeatedly. Bayless (or Sergio) is playing point, but can pass to Luke Jackson, Steven Hill and Shavlik Randolph, who keep missing shots. Greg is playing center, but the opposing center is 6'8" and it's a dunkathon. Martell Webster's defender is inexperienced, and Martell puts 28 on the board. Do any of these things have any effect on the regular season? Not likely, unless a major surprise or disappointment happens.

There will be big surprises or disappointments in preseason games. That doesn't mean much either way. It's how they respond to the experience that will mean more. (Does Sergio get down? Does Oden overreact to the good game? etc)

3. Players may be put in intentionally unusual situations

See above. Every player has deficiencies. Even Brandon Roy... I think. It's very reasonable to see coaches intentionally play a player in a preseason environment that accentuates his weaknesses. It's all about learning their response to the situation, and if they can make a bad situation better. But they may look very, very bad during that stretch. It doesn't mean they're a bad player. Keep in mind, in the regular season, that same coach works hard to put players in situations that mask those same weaknesses.

4. Player gametime conditioning will not be 100%

This goes without saying, but will be written nevertheless. No matter how hard the players work in the summer, they will not be in game shape until they play a number of games. If a player walked into the first preseason game, and was already in gameshape, then they likely didn't have enough downtime in the summer and would wear out quickly (Also likely known as "the Rudy problem" this season). It's perfectly ok for players to be winded through the the first half of preseason.

It's not ok for a player to be winded in game 5 of the regular season. Or game 25, if you're Shaq.

5. Expectations are enormous, and under-performance is likely

Expectations may become a burden for the team early on. Two years ago, we had Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Sergio Rodriguez walk onto the court, and fan expectations were lower than they are right now. Our new guys are going to struggle. They're going to take time to get in game shape. They won't look like a polished pro every night. And there's no reason to let your anxiety to get up over it. We won't know how good our new players are until years from now. Sit back and enjoy watching their formative years.

6. Don't forget the unsung players, working to make the team.

Let's recap the players who are unlikely to be on the bench a month from now:

- Steven Hill, C from Arkansas.
- Luke Jackson, G/F from Oregon
- Shavlik Randolph, PF from Duke.
- Jamaal Tatum, G from Southern Illinois.

One of these players might make the team, likely in an unguaranteed contract. That's it.

Give these players some applause every chance you get. They're doing the one thing every person wants to do in their life: Realize their dream job, and chase after it. They're sitting on the rim of the NBA, hoping they'll get one chance to make a team and show what they can really do. They're not worried about being stars; they just want to prove they belong. And there's very few things more fun than watching someone chase their dream. I get to see them this weekend, and will make sure I applaud their work.

In conclusion, keep in mind that only surface opinions about players will emerge early on.

This is especially true for first 3/4 of the preseason. Most of the preseason will be spent trying different lineups, matchups, and strategies. Sometimes players will be placed in bad (or great!) situations, and see how they respond. The environment will be very different than a regular season game. While we can get a basic look at the players and an idea if they are improved, their play may not be representative of the regular season, and should be treated accordingly.

So relax, cheer the Blazers on, and enjoy seeing some basketball again. But don't overreact to good or bad play, that's just life in the preseason.

9 recs  |  Comment 26 comments

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Great post!

One of the better ones I have read it a long time, very realistic view of the pre-season.

I hope to hear a recap from you after the games!

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Oct 7, 2008 4:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

you'll see more like this

now that real basketball has started.

A vast majority of the more intelligent posters have been silent or only commented here and there because there hasn’t been anything to talk about until now. We have some VERY smart posters on here. this is one of the reasons the Bedge is the place to be.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Oct 8, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fatty came back almost a week ago.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 8, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I’ve hardly been saying anything.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 8, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well put.

Tonight may be strange in the fact that three of Sacs main guys won’t be playing. A lot of the time, these are the games we flounder on because they are playing guys that are not scouted, and are playing at 100% to make the team. I think we’ll win however. Our guys will be too pumped up.

My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.

by OCBlazerFan1 on Oct 7, 2008 5:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oden Looked really good though.

I mean, I know it was against Spencer Hawes, but you couldn’t ask for a better first game if you are a Blazer fan.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Oct 7, 2008 10:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Real nice.

+1

this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to Keep Comment Boards Sucka Free"

by bforsythe on Oct 7, 2008 10:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Spencer Hawes is 7'0 though

… if that makes up for anything.

--

by CaptainSexyJacob on Oct 7, 2008 11:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sit back and enjoy watching their what?

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Oct 8, 2008 1:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hehe ;-)

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Oct 8, 2008 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you

for loaning us Rudy. I think we are falling in love over here…and Sergio looked great tonight too.

the Spanish contributors on this board are hellah cool

by G_dubs on Oct 8, 2008 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

With pleasure!

I started going to Blazer games when I was 6 years old in 1970. I grew up with the Blazers. I was 13 when they won The Championship in 1977 (I got to go to 2 playoff games). 4 weeks later I was enrolled in Jack Ramsey Basketball Camp. I have pictures of Maurice Lucas, Larry Steele, Dave Twardzik, and Bobby Gross with their arms on my shoulder.

I was a young adult during the Drexler years. Those were of course good times.

I have lived through the pain and disappointment of The Jailblazer Era That Shall Not Be Named.

I missed Brandon’s and LMA’s rookie year, because I did not watch a game the previous year because I had become so disgusted, and did not want to give Blazer management any support whatsoever, not even with my miniscule contribution to their TV ratings.

This is the most excited I have been about a Blazer roster / team /organizaition…ever. The other teams that did well kind of came out of the blue. This is a very young team being built from the ground up…with rookies. This thing P. Allen / KP / McMillian are building, could be special…

the Spanish contributors on this board are hellah cool

by G_dubs on Oct 8, 2008 5:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

#3

Roy is flawless like the skin on the Jonas Brother’s butt cheeks.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 8, 2008 4:55 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They have some nasty freckles and moles

And I’m not even speaking about their other cheeks.

Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)

by Norsktroll on Oct 8, 2008 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those add character.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 8, 2008 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's kinds warped

not that there’s anything wrong with that

the Spanish contributors on this board are hellah cool

by G_dubs on Oct 8, 2008 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Griff,

did you go to the opening night. Was it a great night? Give me your thoughts.

by VTBlazer on Oct 8, 2008 11:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yo yo Griff,

where you at? Any thoughts now on the two opening nights?

by VTBlazer on Oct 9, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for stating something I've been thinking about

I had pondering doing the same style of post, but you covered it beautifully.

One game does not a team make, and though we’ve played and done well, your points still stand. We saw some potential, but the reality is that we haven’t done anything yet and frankly… it doesn’t count.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Oct 8, 2008 12:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh, yeah?

Flashback one year: http://www.blazersedge.com/2007/10/11/15547/013

That’s what I think.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 8, 2008 3:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you, Dave, and Mortimer are all the same person.

You guys are freaking me out.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 8, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think so too

And that person is KP.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 8, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That made my nose bleed.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 8, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, NO & NO.

       Morty has admitted he’s PA’s yacht captain.
Proof ? He goes both ways. Port & Starboard.

     COINCAST SUCKS !!!!! KGW RULES !!!
     PA’s CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS ALSO
                       BITES !!

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Oct 8, 2008 3:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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