Some preseason thoughts

It's finally here. The first preseason game of the year. We finally get to see Rudy, Greg and Bayless wear Blazer uniforms and play another team. The wait has been, what... 2, 3 years? It feels like it at least.

Let's talk preseason first though. It's guaranteed that tomorrow, some people will be talking about the game in extreme terms (player x was great, player y sucked, Portland will either miss the playoffs or win the title, etc). My goal here is to talk about tempering expectations (in both directions), what things to look for, and what things not to look for.

1. Teams may not be playing to win

This sounds sacrilege (even in preseason), but is nonetheless true. Preseason games are all about training, conditioning, and evaluating your players. If you're losing by 5, and inserting Brandon Roy will win you that game, it will probably be a loss. Brandon's a known commodity, and those players on the court have some unproven aspect that needs viewing. Those players will absolutely want to win the game, and will do everything they can to do so. It will give you a chance to see how those players perform in the clutch. But at the end of the day, the game doesn't matter.

2. Unusual Lineups and matchups will mess with stats

This will happen repeatedly. Bayless (or Sergio) is playing point, but can pass to Luke Jackson, Steven Hill and Shavlik Randolph, who keep missing shots. Greg is playing center, but the opposing center is 6'8" and it's a dunkathon. Martell Webster's defender is inexperienced, and Martell puts 28 on the board. Do any of these things have any effect on the regular season? Not likely, unless a major surprise or disappointment happens.

There will be big surprises or disappointments in preseason games. That doesn't mean much either way. It's how they respond to the experience that will mean more. (Does Sergio get down? Does Oden overreact to the good game? etc)

3. Players may be put in intentionally unusual situations

See above. Every player has deficiencies. Even Brandon Roy... I think. It's very reasonable to see coaches intentionally play a player in a preseason environment that accentuates his weaknesses. It's all about learning their response to the situation, and if they can make a bad situation better. But they may look very, very bad during that stretch. It doesn't mean they're a bad player. Keep in mind, in the regular season, that same coach works hard to put players in situations that mask those same weaknesses.

4. Player gametime conditioning will not be 100%

This goes without saying, but will be written nevertheless. No matter how hard the players work in the summer, they will not be in game shape until they play a number of games. If a player walked into the first preseason game, and was already in gameshape, then they likely didn't have enough downtime in the summer and would wear out quickly (Also likely known as "the Rudy problem" this season). It's perfectly ok for players to be winded through the the first half of preseason.

It's not ok for a player to be winded in game 5 of the regular season. Or game 25, if you're Shaq.

5. Expectations are enormous, and under-performance is likely

Expectations may become a burden for the team early on. Two years ago, we had Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Sergio Rodriguez walk onto the court, and fan expectations were lower than they are right now. Our new guys are going to struggle. They're going to take time to get in game shape. They won't look like a polished pro every night. And there's no reason to let your anxiety to get up over it. We won't know how good our new players are until years from now. Sit back and enjoy watching their formative years.

6. Don't forget the unsung players, working to make the team.

Let's recap the players who are unlikely to be on the bench a month from now:

- Steven Hill, C from Arkansas.
- Luke Jackson, G/F from Oregon
- Shavlik Randolph, PF from Duke.
- Jamaal Tatum, G from Southern Illinois.

One of these players might make the team, likely in an unguaranteed contract. That's it.

Give these players some applause every chance you get. They're doing the one thing every person wants to do in their life: Realize their dream job, and chase after it. They're sitting on the rim of the NBA, hoping they'll get one chance to make a team and show what they can really do. They're not worried about being stars; they just want to prove they belong. And there's very few things more fun than watching someone chase their dream. I get to see them this weekend, and will make sure I applaud their work.

In conclusion, keep in mind that only surface opinions about players will emerge early on.

This is especially true for first 3/4 of the preseason. Most of the preseason will be spent trying different lineups, matchups, and strategies. Sometimes players will be placed in bad (or great!) situations, and see how they respond. The environment will be very different than a regular season game. While we can get a basic look at the players and an idea if they are improved, their play may not be representative of the regular season, and should be treated accordingly.

So relax, cheer the Blazers on, and enjoy seeing some basketball again. But don't overreact to good or bad play, that's just life in the preseason.