Our Offense is Offensive Part 3

Last year similar things were being said about his scheme. This year could be very telling. If our team doesn’t improve dramatically one constant is the coach.

We just don’t get them. Fast break buckets, points in the paint (i’m looking at you LMA – you had a nice little hook shot from 8 feet tonight, it looked money. Every other shot you took was from 16 feet), driving layins or dunks, lob passes to the post, tip-ins, put-backs. We don’t get any of those in any kind of quantity. We need to figure out a way to get more.

I have been trying to understand what is up with the Blazers offense since I started watching early last season. I have found myself pointing a finger at Blake, because he does not credibly attack the basket. But I have wondered if there is not something more systemic happening.

I think this teams’ hopes of a dynamic offense lie with Rudy. And what Nate does with him. Build an offense around him. At least the movement part of the offense.

Could be time to hire an assistant who is an offensive guru.

So we have to take that into account. However the offense in this game was really really bad. My friends and I talked a few times during the game that the Blazers problems seemed to have more to do with them not hitting shots than the lakers playing really stellar defense, then Phil Jackson basically said the same thing during his 3rd qtr interview. Most of those shots were mid-range shots, or layups that were very difficult. We shot 42% from 3, but 34% overall? My god our 2pt % must have been below 25%! How many 24 second violations did we have? I can remember at least 2 or 3.

Here are the things I felt led to this bad of a defeat on opening night.
1) The Blazers were not prepared. Nate even said it in his post game, they were just not ready for the intensity of the regular season, this was a coaching mistake. Nate has to get them ready, no matter what.
2) Not enough movement on offense. The TNT guys said this pretty much all game long, the Blazers need an offensive identity, right now they have the high screen and roll or one on one and that is it.
3) Nate’s choice to start Outlaw over Batum. Not because Batum would be a better choice, but because of the message it sends. Batum had been playing over his head in the preseason and camp, enough so that 2 weeks before the season started, Nate started running him with the 1st unit, BRoy gave him his stamp of approval, and Nate named him the starter for the 1st game. Then on the day of the game he yanks him and starts Outlaw. This could have disrupted the 1st team’s offense, and Outlaw had not practiced with them at all for the most part, and even though he had a good game, all of his shots were the one on one type, and did not come in any type of offensive flow. Maybe that contributed to BRoy and LMA’s off nights, maybe not. It also told Batum that his coach thinks he can’t handle it, after 2 weeks of telling him he could. Actions speak louder that words my momma said, I hope Batum’s confidence can handle that and still come out and play well when we need him.
3) Not playing Sergio more than 4 mins. Nate needs to let go of this team. He reminds me of Avery Johnson that way, he just can’t let the team play, he has to have control over it at all times. Last season this team played it’s best when Nate took off the reigns a bit in December. In the case of Sergio, his confidence is kinda shaky, although he had a good preseason, he is still feeling his way, benching him after 4 mins, (basically playing him the exact same way he did last year) does nothing but take a hammer to the glass and break the momention Sergio had going. More so, the team can see that, and see that Nate is still holding on very tight to the team. During Nate’s interview he said the team needed to slow down, which I am not sure was the case. They were all admittedly nervous or amped up for the game, which can lead to playing too fast. But the 1st qtr saw more bricks and players over running a play, or taking rushed shots. Maybe he meant they need to calm down, I can only hope.

With all that said, Nate is a good coach, but I wish he would hire an assistant to put in a great offensive system, like Dean has done for the zone defenses, or like Tex Winters has done for the Lake show. Because Nate preferred system is not working, and hasn’t worked since that Seattle team won 50 games. (They had Ray Allen, the best pure shooter in the NBA taking those mid range shots, we don’t) I think we all need to remember as well that Nate is not some battle hardened coach who has been through it all before. He has only coached for 8 seasons, and of those seasons he has made the playoffs twice with Seattle. He is learning still just like our players, but he needs to learn quickly that this team doesn’t have the pure shooters to run his current offense and make the adjustments.

Let’s see, Oden lasted 15 minutes, went 0-5, and then was gone. So, you’re back to Pryz, who has little or no offensive game. LMA and Frye, in turn, were throwing up bricks, as was Roy.

The comment that Mac must “get them ready no matter what” ignores the fact that you can’t get people ready if they can’t play. Remember? Blake, Frye, and Fernandez missed 1/2 or more of training camp. Webster was out entirely. Oden and Roy were working themselves back into shape after injuries. And, you’ve got 4 rookies.

So, no matter what friends – this is still pre-season. And it will be for another week or two. And there’s nothing we – or Mac – can do about that.

You can’t go inside if there’s no one to go inside to. Every element of this team was out of sync – with the exception of Rudy.

As far as Bayless playing – not to worry. This was the perfect time to start seasoning Bayless. By the end of the year, Bayless will play more time than Sergio. And there are 4 reasons. First his defence is better, and his offence is as good. Second, he works harder. He was in the practice facility until mid-night a number of times during the pre-season – and it was him, and a coach – no one else. And finally, he’ll learn the game – because that is what he doesn’t have. The rest will catch up.

Nate has a heck of a job in front of him. Does he patch it up with the current scheme and try to claw his way to match or exceed last years win total, or does he let go and start thinking about playing a more uptempo game?

It almost feels to me like the team has more to learn offensively from Rudy Fernandez than it does from the coaching staff. This will be a real test of this organization. They have to keep their poise and be willing to adapt. Tough assignment.

2000-01: 9th (mixed in with Westphal)
2001-02: 5th
2002-03: 19th
2003-04: 3rd
2004-05: 2nd
2005-06: 30th
2006-07: 19th
2007-08: 14th

Those are the offensive efficiencies for Nate’s teams. Is there a reason those teams should have been higher than they were? The 2005-06 team was truly bad, the 2006-07 team showcased an inefficient Zach for a season, and last year’s team only had half of a post threat and still beat out over half of the rest of the teams.

The history shows that Nate’s offense is fine. It also shows that Nate likes really slow games, meaning the teams do well in points per game. I think last night was about as bad as this team could have done on offense, and shouldn’t really factor much into the discussion.

what is “offensive efficiency?” Do you have a formula for that stat?