This wraps up the Previews.  This also includes playoff series.

There is a larger Blazers Preview

Previous Southwest Division Preview Link

 http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/14/634996/western-conference-preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

 

Northwest Division		Playoff Seeds
Utah Jazz	54-28	3
Portland Trailblazers	49-33	6
Denver Nuggets	33-49
Minnesota Timberwolves	24-58
Oklahoma Thunder	23-59

 

 

Oklahoma Thunder

Prediction: 23-59 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Russell Westbrook	Earl Watson	MVP: Kevin Durant Biggest Surprise: Jeff Green’s production Biggest Letdown: Won’t have a legitimate center Key to success: Running by creating turnovers   Grab bag: The Thunder need to fire the scout that researches their centers.
SG	Kevin Durant	Damien Wilkins
SF	Jeff Green	Desmond Mason
PF	Chris Wilcox	Joe Smith
C	Nick Collison	Johan Petro

 

Oklahoma City might as well be an expansion team, because that is about the quality of their players.  Surprisingly though, they are going to be annoying to defend.  Their wings, starters and reserves, are incredibly athletic.  Jeff Green, who will start at small forward, and Desmond Mason, who will back him up, are easily in the top tier of athleticism in the league.  While neither is an accomplished outside shooter, Jeff Green will have improved his jumper enough that the defender can’t back off of him and give him free jump shots. 

 

Kevin Durant and Damien Wilkins provide a much wider range of offensive skill than Green and Mason.  Wilkins, despite being unable to dribble with his left hand, is a steady ball handler and can set the offense.  His three point shot is very good, especially from either corner and he is long enough and tall enough that it is hard to bother his shot for most 2’s.  His shooting percentage was low last year, at 40% but In November and half of December he averaged about 14 ppg and shot near 50%.  If he can at least get his shooting percentage closer to 50% for the year he will be a good option off the bench for Durant.  Durant, if he continues to fine tune his dribbling, will a dreadful defensive assignment.  He is 6’9” and has a ‘Stretch Armstrong’ reach.  He has a feathery jump shot combined with above average athleticism.  At the end of last season he started to “get it” and became a ‘demand the ball-type’ player instead of an, ‘I’ll take it because you told me to’ guy.  He can shoot from all over the floor, drive to the hoop, and has put on enough weight that he can start to hold his own in the post.  Guarding him with most shooting guards won’t work because he is too tall, and asking a small forward to slide over creates a match up problem with Jeff Green able to over power most shooting guards.  There just isn’t an easy way to counter this combination of size and skill.

 

Russell Westbrook is the new point guard for the Thunder.  He is an excellent defender and driver because of his superb athleticism.  He will initiate the offense but don’t look for too many assists out of offensive sets.  Most of his stats will come from running on fast breaks and either hitting Green or Durant, or just taking the ball all the way to the hoop.  Watson provides as the steady backup and can play with Westbrook at the 2.  The Thunder don’t need Westbrook to do much besides play defense and look to attack on offense, he will not be relied on to, at this point, to run the offense.

 

Up front are Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox, who are both capable of 10 ppg and 10 rpg.  Neither will get there, but the threat of those numbers is there, which means they aren’t completely incapable.  The problem here is that neither player is prime post player.  Pairing Collison or Wilcox as as ecod option with a star would make them much more viable.  They are both essentially hustle players and asking them to do more than that takes them out of their comfort zone.  Collison in particular would be a great compliment to a legit center like Yao Ming or even Zydrunas Illgauskas in Cleveland.  Wilcox can put up points and is another extremely athletic player who will thrive in a fast break up-tempo offense.

 

The Thunder will most likely have another 2-3 years before they really turn the corner.  They don’t have many tradable pieces outside of Wilcox,  and Durant still needs at least another year before he is an elite scorer (25+),  Jeff Green needs to continue to develop his outside shot and Westbrook will need to learn how to run the offense in slow sets. Go Sonics…

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Randy Foye	Sebastian Telfair	MVP:  Al Jefferson Biggest Surprise: Sebastian Telfair starts…a lot. Biggest Letdown: Corey Brewer’s shot. Key to success: Inside, outside game.   Grab bag: The Timberwolves will make the playoffs if Mike       Miller shoots 100% from behind the line, the 3 point line.
SG	Mike Miller	Rashad McCants
SF	Corey Brewer	Rodney Carney
PF	Kevin Love	Craig Smith
C	Al Jefferson	Calvin Booth

 

Trading for Kevin Love was good move for the Timberwolves because they didn’t need another guard in Mayo and Love is not a reach for talent.  The league knows what you are getting with Love. He is a solid big man who can shoot and pass like a perimeter player and is extremely adept at outsmarting his opponents in necessity to make up for his lack of NBA level athleticism.  Love’s numbers are entirely dependent on the amount of minutes he plays.  He will be as solid in his rookie year as he will in three years which isn’t a bad thing.  He is already so skilled that there isn’t a lot of room for improvement and playing next to Al Jefferson isn’t going to hurt.  Love will never be a 20+ scorer, but he could be a 16-18 ppg with 10 rpg and 4 apg and the ability to hit the three. 

 

Jefferson is almost the anti-Love.  He is more of a bruiser who uses his athleticism to get the rim rather than his smarts.  He gets to the foul line and for a big man his 72% is deadly.  He will never be as good as Kevin Garnett, the man he was traded for, but there aren’t many players in the history of the NBA who will be.  Jefferson is easily the center piece of the team and as the Timberwolves improve over the next few years, could be a perennial all-star. 

 

Another reason Jefferson will have a big year is that defensives won’t be able to key on him because of shooters like Rashad McCants, Love and especially Mike Miller. Miller, behind the Celts’ Ray Allen and Utah’s Kyle Korver, is the one of the best pure shooters in the league.  He is big and tall for a shooting guard and is able to get a clean look on whoever is guarding him.  His ball handling is about average, but his ability to pull up off the dribble is what makes him so dangerous.  Backing him up is another great scorer, Rashad McCants.  He put up 15 ppg off the bench (he did start 25 games).  He is able to come in and pick up right where Miller leaves off.  He is a good three point shooter, but he also can get to the rim.  With a better record last year, he would have gotten serious consideration for 6th man of the year.  The other starter is Corey Brewer, who hasn’t been able to transition his offensive game from College thus far.  Defensively he is still solid, but if he is ever able to get an offensive game outside of close to the basket hoops he can become a Bruce Bowen type wing who can play great D and open the floor on the offensive end.

 

The TWolves sport two point guards who have yet to show they can handle the year ‘round duty.  Randy Foye has been injured often and as a combo guard hasn’t had much of an opportunity to play at the  point for long periods of time.  He can definitely score, and is a playmaker, but at this point the TWolves need a PG that can get the ball into Miller’s and Jefferson’s hands.  Sebastian Telfair is the back up and shockingly, is still in the league.  He had a decent year in 07-08 but like Foye, mainly needs to penetrate and find the open man and not worry much about scoring.

A lot of people are picking the Timberwolves to be a sleeper pick in the west.  Not a playoff team, but a surprise to play much better than they did last year.  While they certainly have improved, the Western Conference has gotten deeper, meaning there are more good teams.  Where are the Timberwolves going to get their wins?  Against the bottom feeders like the Thunder and the Grizzlies yes, but how many games can they beat the middle of the pack like the Nuggets, Warriors, Blazers and Clippers?  There aren’t many games to be won for the Timberwolves and they don’t get to play the Eastern Conference every other night.  I think the will be improved but the win column won’t be much of a change.

 

Denver Nuggets

Prediction: 33-49 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Anthony Carter	Chucky Atkins	MVP:  Allen Iverson Biggest Surprise: Anthony Carter is good Biggest Letdown: Defense Key to success: Outscoring the other team   Grab bag: This is going to be the highest scoring worst     team in the last 10 years
SG	Allen Iverson	J.R. Smith
SF	Carmelo Anthony	Renaldo Balkman
PF	Kenyon Martin	Linas Kleiza
C	Nene Hilario	Chris Andersen

 

Trading away Marcus Camby was plain not good.  Saving money in the NBA is like leaving the TV behind in the occurrence of a fire, it shouldn’t happen.  The goal is to make money, not save it.  Without putting a great product on the floor, is that going to happen? Essentially the fan takes heed that management is giving up on the current era.  There is absolutely no way that the Denver Nuggets win a championship this year with their current roster.  Camby at least gave them a fighting chance.

 

With Camby’s absence, the hopefully fully recovered Nene will start at center.  Nene is a good player, but he hasn’t had much run in this offense due to his injuries and he certainly isn’t the player that Camby is.  He is a huge question mark.  Kenyon Martin is  at forward, and without Jason Kidd feeding him the ball, nothing more than a solid player.  Neither of these players can nor will play over 32+ mpg simply because of their fragility.  It isn’t encouraging that their backups are a small forward and a player who has just returned to the league after a drug problem.  Linas Kleiza won’t be asked to guard many power forwards, but the fact that he is coming off the bench will mean he won’t have much of a choice in who takes advantage of him.

 

Allen Iverson is one of the greatest scorers in the history of the league.  Despite his short comings, whatever people may label them as; Iverson has always proven himself on the court to be a hard worker.  He literally throws himself at his work.  In Denver he hasn’t scored as much because he hasn’t had to.  But this year, without any defense behind him he knows that he has to score more, has to lead, create for teammates, and in short, takeover every game.  This could and probably will, completely backfire.  Not because Iverson will alienate his teammates, but because no matter how much he scores, their opponents will score more.  One of the best stories that came out of the pairing between Iverson and Carmelo Anthony is that it did not hinder either player’s offensive game.  They both took fewer shots but shot higher percentages than in recent years.  That experiment is working.  Anthony could score 30+ if Iverson was gone, but he would have to work harder for it, especially because the man responsible for getting them the ball is Anthony Carter.

 

The Nuggets and the Timberwolves could easily exchange their records, but I think Allen Iverson will be on a mission this year and be able to single handedly keep the Nuggets have no business being in.

 

Portland Trailblazers

Prediction: 49-33 6th seed playoffs

 

Team Overview: Portland finds itself in a good position; they have the personnel, they have the chemistry, and they have high expectations.  Hype and expectations are not synonymous with one another.  The Blazers are expected to do well, and with their team, they should.  Don’t worry about expectations. Expectations are only bad when you don’t meet them right?  The Blazers are young, their leaders (Roy, Blake, Aldridge) won’t let them slide.  This team will turn the corner and know how good they are as soon as Aldridge and Roy have bad games, but the team still wins.  The pressure will come off the team and they will start to play.  There will always be some nights that things just don’t go your way, but with so many options style of play, usually a solution can be formed.

 

Starters:  The Trail Blazers’ starters are young for the most part.  But the two guys running the show, Steve Blake and Brandon Roy are sages with the basketball.  The game doesn’t get out of hand with these two calming ball handlers.  They can get the ball where it needs to go and they can play off of each other interchanging between the shooting guard and the point guard.  The Blazers will play from inside-out with their big presence on the blocks in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge.  Double teaming one of them may work, but not both. Aldridge has more space and the other shooters on the outside.  Blake, Roy, and even Batum can get jumpers with regularity when given ample time. 

 

PG-Steve Blake

Scouting: Blake is exactly what this team needs.  He doesn’t try to do too much.  He doesn’t look for his shot over teammates, ever.  You never see Blake take a shot and say, “he should have passed that one.”  He makes careful decisions and because of that, doesn’t rack up assists.  He can hit the open shot, specifically from three where he is constantly left open.  Blake’s defense isn’t more than average, but his work rate is tremendous which allows him to ‘will’ his body into place.  Above all, players like playing with him and that is ultimately what kind of sentiment you want players to have towards their point guard.

 

Outlook: Blake will need to get more aggressive attacking the basket.  If he probes more he can find his big man’s hands, or a corner shooter.  If nothing else, he can draw a foul or put it in the basket.  Defensively he needs to shadow PG’s towards space rather than playing straight between the man and the basket.  With help behind him, he can dictate where the offense moves the ball.

Season stat line: 9 PPG 6 APG 1SPG

 

SG-Brandon Roy

Scouting: Roy will be considered a top 10 player in the league after this season because his exposure at the national level due to TV.  His statistics are great, enough to warrant an all-star selection, but they don’t tell the whole story.  He literally takes over the game with the ball in his hands.  He can pull up for a shot, drive on anyone and finish in traffic.  If the traffic is too dense he can find a teammate for an open shot.  He breaks down all offenses so fluidly that when fans watch him they ask, “how did he make that?”  He can be a lockdown defender defensively as well, but right now his tough defensive assignments are usually in crunch time.  He has exhibited a nose for the ball at the end of games.

 

Outlook: Translating his defensive prowess to a full game ends up being a conditioning issue.  If Roy can get to an elite level of conditioning while playing 37+ minutes a night he could be Hall of Famer when it is all said and done.  This is the one hark on Roy, he is great at many things, but not elite at any particular one.  His multi-facet game is what makes him an elite player, but not something that sets him apart from any other elites.  Roy needs to carve a niche, something more than a go to move that makes him completely unstoppable and that card may be defense.  The worst thing to say about him is that he isn’t the absolute best.  I don’t think Roy has much to worry about.

Season stat line: 19 PPG 6.5 APG 5 RPG

 

SF-Nicolas Batum/Martell Webster

Scouting: Right now Batum is the starter because of his ability to play defense and the fact that if Outlaw was brought into the starting lineup, he would meddle with the harmony that is the bench.  His shot is coming along and he will be able to hit shots from the corner and his dribbling is adequate but not enough to go by someone.

Webster is injured, but figures, with his new commitment to defense, better handle and always gorgeous shot to be the perfect fit when he returns.

 

Outlook: Batum should be fine as a starter because as a rookie he will be surrounded by the team’s best talent.  Batum won’t be asked to do much more than play defense and hit wide open shots.  He will hold this spot until Martell Webster is fully recovered from his injury and may have a shot of keeping it if all things go well.  He won’t get many minutes but will start each half.  He can earn playing time from his performance based on a night to night basis.

Season stat line: 5 PPG 4 RPG 1.5 SPG*   *as a starter

 

PF-LaMarcus Aldridge

Scouting: When he is hitting from the outside it is impossible to guard him.  He has great quickness, foot speed and full court speed.  His quickness allows him to slip by similar sized opponents and his foot speed in the post helps him spin and jab to get the defender off balance.  In the open court he is faster than his defender 9 times out of 10 and will get easy baskets at the rim.  Defensively he is long and gets a hand in the offensive player’s face.  He is a good help shot blocker and his rebounding is sound.

 

Outlook: LaMarcus Aldridge is his own worst enemy.  He has a great stroke from the outside, but sometimes it just doesn’t hit. Aldridge started to go inside towards the end of last season and we can only hope he continues.  When his outside shot isn’t falling he needs to learn that he can still get his points inside and at the free thrown line.  His back to the basket skills are there, but he needs to force his way inside.  Defensively he needs to try and box out instead of releasing.  He tried to release too early last year and it allowed some offensive rebounds.  He needs to use his lower body when getting backed-in in the post rather than leaning with his upper body.  If the offensive player turns and shoots, his long arms can’t bother the shot as much as if he stays upright where he can challenge many more shots.

Season stat line: 22 PPG 8.7 RPG 1.5 BPG

 

C-Greg Oden

Scouting: This is the closer player to Shaq that the league has seen.  Oden has an uncanny ability to do a standing dunk from 3 or 4 steps away.  His strength is tremendous and his athleticism, in due time, will be on the scale of Amare Stoudemire.  He goes after rebounds instead of letting them fall to him.  He is a good enough foul shooter that fouling him equals points.

 

Outlook: Despite all of Oden’s prowess, he will not need to put up ridiculous numbers.  His area of expertise is defense and that is what he will be called on to provide.  Rebounding, blocks, alternating shots and dunks, lots of dunks, dunks on people’s heads is all he needs to do. A big area of concern is his ability to stay out of foul trouble and his conditioning.  The condition will likely solve itself as the season progresses, but knowing when to foul and when to go for a block will need to be lessons learned fast.

Season stat line: 13 PPG 11 RPG 2.2 BPG

 

Bench: Portland’s bench aims to be one of the best.  With Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye and Joel Przybilla, this should be the best second unit.  This doesn’t include the rookie Jerryd Bayless who could break into this rotation at any point in the season and will get some minutes anyway.  Outlaw and Fernandez will play significant minutes off of the bench and will keep a good scoring punch when Roy and Aldridge are off the floor.

 

Season stat lines:

Rudy Fernandez-12 PPG 3 APG

Travis Outlaw-12 PPG 3 RPG

Channing Frye-7 PPG 3 RPG

Joel Pryzbilla- 3 PPG 7.5 RPG 2 BPG

 

Team Outlook: The Blazers can play to their strengths, which are quite many.  Coach McMillan will have to find the best combinations on the floor but he won’t have to necessarily worry about any egos.  These players like each other, which makes it easier for players sharing time to coexist. Besides natural growth in the NBA game, Portland’s players don’t need to work on much individually besides the basics of improving their shots and defensive ability. With so many weapons they won’t have many dry spells, and this should allow the focus to be on D. Outside of injuries the single greatest threat to the Blazers is their team defense.  Last year the Blazers played a bend-not-break style defense.  This year the need to force more turnovers so that can get easy points.  McMillan has already put a light on some of his plans.  In the preseason, the Blazers showed a pressure defense several times.  With the seemingly unlimited quality bodies this allows starters to be fresh when needed.

 

All this said, the Blazers aren’t going to win a championship this year.  They still need to grow a little bit, get their feet wet in much more intense games (playoffs).  When Oden and Bayless and a few others have completely settled in, the Blazers can be perennial challengers.

 

 

Utah Jazz

Prediction: 54-28 3rd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Deron Williams	Ronnie Price	MVP:  Deron Williams Biggest Surprise: Boozer will sign long contract Biggest Letdown: All the hubbub about Boozer Key to success: Let Deron and Jerry decide how to win   Grab bag: I can’t remember which Collins twin was the    good one anymore.
SG	Ronnie Brewer	Kyle Korver
SF	Andrei Kirilenko	C.J. Miles
PF	Carlos Boozer	Paul Millsap
C	Mehmet Okur	Jarron Collins

 

The Utah Jazz have all the right pieces in the right places.  Deron Williams, their point guard is in the top 3 at his position.  Ronnie Brewer is a defensive stopper-type wing who can hit an open shot, Andrei Kirilenko is solid at every aspect of the game and highly skilled at the defensive end, Carlos Boozer is a bruiser with a soft touch and Mehmut Okur as an accomplished outside shooter.  The five starters all compliment each other, therefore enhancing each player’s skills.  It doesn’t end with the starters though.  Kyle Korver comes off the bench to provide a deep threat, Paul Millsap provides front court energy, and CJ Miles can continue with a decent defensive presence on the perimeter.

 

One crucial element of every team is chemistry.  Boozer seems to hold that in the balance.  Unlike; Okur, Kirilenko and Brewer, the loss or unhappiness of Deron Williams and/or Carlos Boozer would have this team on the outside looking in.  Deron Williams though, is likely, as the starting PG to remain content, Boozer on the other hand always seems to be looking for the next thing.  It could be a matter of whether or not he sees a chance to win a championship, but he already has the Jazz worried he is looking elsewhere at the end of the season.  If this becomes a legitimate concern it could create turmoil for the Jazz and disrupt the chemistry.  The worst case scenario would be if the Jazz end up trying to trade Boozer before the deadline in fear he will not resign (player option in 09/10) at the end of the year.  This huge distraction could seriously damage the Jazz’s hopes and despite their chemistry, a loss like Boozer would take serious mending over several years, he is not an easily replaceable piece.

 

Despite all this, as none of it could come to fruition, the Jazz should be able to perform well.  An injury here and there to anyone but Deron Williams could be managed, because he is after all, the one that makes them go.  The Jazz will need to hit there stride going into the playoffs.  Their chemistry has a lot to do with the momentum they will carry, and that needs to happen at the right time.  While their interior defense leaves a little to be desired, the perimeter D in the match-ups category is uncouth for opposing players because of their length and speed.  This cuts down on a lot of sliding over by big men and leaves them to only worry about their assignment.

 

Utah has a good thing going.  With the right match ups in the postseason they could easily have a run at the championship.  Last year, the Jazz were right on the cusp, it only takes a little more luck and momentum to push them further.

 

 

PREDICTIONS

 

West MVP: Chris Paul                         West Most Improved: Al Thornton

West Defensive POY: Tim Duncan      West ROY: Greg Oden

 

West Playoff Predictions:

 

1st Round

 

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8th seed Dallas Mavericks-Lakers win 4-0

A couple close wins in Dallas for the Lakers, but they easily dispatch the Mavs in what may be the Mavs last trip to the playoffs for awhile.

 

2nd seed New Orleans Hornets vs. 7th seed Phoenix Suns-Suns win 4-1

Phoenix flexes their muscles in the post and while their defense isn’t much against the Hornets, Amare and Shaq destroy West and Chandler.  Chris Paul, the MVP, does all he can. Raja Bell discourages him just enough in the series that he can’t pull it out.

 

3rd seed Utah Jazz vs. 6th seed Portland Trailblazers-Blazers win 4-3

The Blazers, who had played Utah tough all year use their depth in this back and forth series which culminates in a win over the Jazz in Salt Lake City.  Brandon Roy and Oden are the difference makers.

 

4th seed Houston Rockets vs. 5th seed San Antonio Spurs-Rockets win 4-2

The Rockets made it out of the first round.  Yao averages a double-double and Alston runs circles around Parker.

 

West Semi-Finals

 

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs.4th seed Houston Rockets-Lakers win 4-3

Artest contains Kobe as best as possible, but Gasol abuses Luis Scola and company on the front line.  TMac is non existent the entire series except for game 7 when he goes for 42 points.  Sadly, the shots weren’t falling from the other boys in red.

 

7th seed Phoenix Suns vs. 6th seed Portland Trailblazers-Suns wins 4-3

The series is completely grind it out.  The Oden-Shaq match-up is classic, and Aldridge-Amare doesn’t disappoint.  The difference comes down to three-point shooting as even Grant Hill joins the party for the Suns.

 

West Finals

 

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7th seed Phoenix Suns-Lakers win 4-3

Phoenix has now found their style and this is another great series for big men.  Nash is slowing down the offense and forcing the ball inside to Shaq who is playing with a chip on his shoulder.  On the other end, Kobe makes Raja Bell piddle himself, which leads to the disparity in wins.  Somebody get a mop.

 

 

NBA MVP: LeBron James                    NBA Most Improved: Ronald Stuckey

NBA Defensive POY: Kevin Garnett     NBA ROY: Greg Oden

 

 

NBA Finals

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics-Celtics win 4-3

Everyone picked the Lakers, but Boston says nuh uh.  The Celtics, completely healthy, use their team defense to slow down the game.  Garnett essentially becomes the point guard and averages 7 assists for the series.  The rivalry is truly renewed.