Let The Regular Season Begin - Blazers Vs Lakers Preview

Ahhh, the Lakers. The Portland versus L.A. matchup is every Blazers fan’s favorite game to look forward to and with a win, favorite win and with a loss, it just fuels the rivalry fire. While not every Laker fan gets as hyped for these games, every long-term Blazer fan remembers the 2000 Western Conference Finals like it was yesterday. Being that that this upcoming Tuesday is the opening game of the season, the Lakers and Laker fans are going to be just as hyped because they want to show the world that they are back and ready to contend for the title again.

The upstart Blazers held their own against the Kobe-led, veteran-savvy Lakers last season winning their two home game and keeping it reasonably close at the Staple Center but lost both, leaving season series tied at two games a piece.

Both teams got better this off-season, although, I will have to say that Portland probably improved more. A healthy but still a work in progress Greg Oden will reshape how the Blazers play and how opposing teams play them. Portland’s other off-season additions were Rudy Fernandez, of the posterization of Dwight Howard fame and the Arizona rookie Jerryd Bayless, who won the Vegas Summer League MVP award. Look for Rudy to have a more immediate impact. This preseason, another surprise on the Blazers squad has been Nicolas Batum, the Blazers 25th draft pick out of France. After a lackluster summer league, Batum has put up an impressive showing in the preseason and is likely to fill the starting small forward position in place of Martell Webster, who is out with a broken foot until at least late December.

A lot of NBA prognosticators are focusing on the loss of James Jones to Miami as a reason why Portland will not see a vast improvement. His three-point shooting was a key to the team’s success last season but Rudy is a bomber, Blake will continue to be a solid outside shooter and both Roy and Sergio have greatly improved this off-season from beyond the arc. The team actually should see their overall 3-pt percentage go up.

A healthy Bynum adds another dynamic to the Laker offense, making them of the tallest frontcourts in the league with Gasol sliding down to the power forward position. The arrival of project Sun Yue will likely be taken as a non-event but I do think the loss of Turiaf will modestly hurt the 2nd unit’s rebounding ability, albeit modestly.

The Lakers and Blazers play a similar style, focusing on an inside-outside game, sprinkled with pick and rolls. The Lakers play a true triangle offense and the Blazers play a modified triangle offense. Nate McMillan is a stalwart about defense and the team is improving but still doesn’t have the lockdown defender on the perimeter that Kobe can be when he applies himself, as in the Olympics this summer. Both teams will push the ball when they have an advantage but pull it back into the half-court when the opportunity to fast break is not there.               

As far as this game goes, the Lakers will likely win by double digits. The Lakers are returning essentially the same NBA Finals team that they had last season, a reigning MVP in Kobe Bryant, a healthy Bynum and an improving Trevor Ariza and Jordan Farmar. Portland will likely have two rookies in its starting lineup, Greg Oden at center and Nicolas Batum at small forward, and are still learning to play as a cohesive unit. The starting five has only started together in two preseason games. The Blazers will be competitive and the Lakers will be a good litmus test but their chance of winning is slim.

Come January 4, this will not be the case. Oden will be in NBA shape, barring injury (I pray every night) and having a couple months of regular-season battle testing under their belt, I could see the Blazers playing it close, if not steeling one in LA. However, my prediction is that both teams win both their home games. The Blazers don’t get the Lakers into the Rose Garden until March, which by then they should be in “We have to make the playoffs” mode and hitting their stride.

Player By Player Matchup

PG – Derek Fischer vs Steve Blake
Advantage: Portland

Fischer is a solid veteran NBA point guard but he is entering the twilight years of his NBA career. He knows the offense, runs it to a T and is an affective outside shooter. Blake fulfills a similar roll for the Blazers. He is not the go-to-guy on offense but he brings the rock up the court and gets the offense moving. He is an affective if not above average outside shooter and sees the court well. Blake has been conditioning like a mad man these last two off-seasons, is in the best shape of his life and can likely get a step on Fischer when he wants it.

SG – Kobe Bryant vs Brandon Roy
Advantage: L.A.

This is a no brainer. While I love Roy and he will likely repeat as an All-Star this season, no one can take over a game like Kobe. He draws attention from every defender on the court and is athletic enough that they all can’t stop him. His maturity on the court over the last two seasons has taken his game to another level, allowing him become the team player the Lakers needed him to be. Brandon is already the consummate team player that Kobe is but he doesn’t the matching offensive or defensive abilities. Roy is still improving and is the best player on the Blazers team but no match for Kobe

SF – Lamar Odom vs. Nicolas Batum
Advantage: L.A.

I am not sure if the staring small forward role has been established for either team but I am going with who I think will be starting. Odom has the ability to be an All-Star year in and year out but has proven to be streaky. Whether it be a lack of focus or the pressure of playing in LA, he seams to have the ability to put up career numbers one night and look like a bench warmer the next. Lucky for LA, still leans more toward the former. Batum is an unproven rookie. He is extremely lanky at 6’9” and a 7’4” wingspan but doesn’t have the bulk to match up with Odom whatsoever. Batum’s strengths are his abilities on defense, a Tayshaun Prince in the making, having a knack for the ball and being in the right place at the right time on offense. He can shoot from outside but has been streaky thus far.

PF – Pau Gasol vs LaMarcus Aldridge
Advantage: Portland

Laker fans may scream at me for this one but LMA has dominated every game that he has played against Pau both as a Laker and with the Grizzlies. Last season, LMA outscored Pau in every game and out rebounded him in all but one. Both are tall and play their best away from the low post. The addition of Oden will free up LaMarcus to operate away from the blocks and allow him more of the mid-range jumpers, which have become his bread and butter. If Gasol doesn’t get a hand in his face, LaMarcus is going to have a field day. Gasol is a better rebounder but LMA is a better defender, which should be the deciding factor in this match up. Aldridge will also likely be the Blazers leading scorer this season. In my opinion, if the Lakers can shut down LMA, they are going to win handily.

C – Andrew Bynum vs Greg Oden
Advantage: L.A.

This is going to be my favorite match up to watch. Seriously, what can be better than watching two of the best up-and-coming centers go to battle? The only thing better would be to throw in Dwight Howard for a three-way game of crunch. Dwight wins but all three would walk away with more bruises than a domestic-abuse clinic. Joel Przybilla knows. Just ask him about the shiner that he is still nursing.

All joking aside, Bynum has the experience. It is going to take Greg half a season or more to fully adjust to the NBA. After that, the NBA is going to have to adjust to him. Greg has more bulk to push around down low but Bynum has a better array of offensive moves and his overall movement is smoother. I don’t think that Bynum is going dominate by any means but the experience will pay dividends. In my opinion, Bynum is better coached. This is not a knock of the Portland staff, they just don’t have a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar that they can call in as a tutor. If Paul Allen could use his money to coax Bill Russell, Wilt or Hakeem to come in, I would be all for it.

Lakers' Bench vs Blazers' Bench
Advantage: Portland

I like the Lakers bench a lot. Farmar will be the starting point guard either late this season or next, same with Ariza at the small forward, who is extremely athletic and exciting to watch. Walton will forever be a quality roll player at SF/PF. Chris Mihm, Vladimir Radmanovic and Sasha Vujacic are adequate but nothing special. Coby Karl and Yue Sun are projects. The Lakers have an 8-10 man rotation but the game mostly revolves around the starting unit and Kobe.

The Blazers are loaded with talent, almost too much talent. The entire second unit could fulfill starters rolls for the right team. McMillan is going to have his hands full distributing minutes. For the first half of the season, I think you could see an 11-man rotation where the entire second unit sees extended court time.

Travis Outlaw will be the first man off the bench and should contend for the 6th man of the year award. He is a scorer and can score against the majority of SFs and PFs in the league but he lacks the playmaking ability and defensive mindset to be a true star. Sergio and Rudy are like peas and carrots. Rudy is a playmaker, has a flair for the game and will likely take up most of the backup shooting guard minutes. He is an All-Star in the making. Sergio has improved this off-season and will take up most of the backup point guard minutes. The You-Tube highlight reel of ally-oops between Sergio and Rudy is already in the making. Jerryd Bayless can do some amazing things offensively but his lack of experience running the point and playing as a true point will limit his minutes. Channing Frye has proven that he can put of 15/10 numbers when given the chance to start. When LaMarcus takes a breather, or if he goes down with an injury, the offense will hardly lose a step, especially now that Frye is consistently hitting from 3pt range. Joel Przybilla, now relegated to the bench, could still start for a vast majority of teams and is likely one of the best backup centers in the league. Ike Diogu and Shavlik Randolph will not likely see much time this season unless starting players get injured.

Martell Webster will start the season on the IR but will likely return as the staring SF once he’s healthy, which is projected to be early January.

**Update**

Almost as i was posting this, I got a response from Kurt, who is the moderator at the Lakers Forum Blue And Gold. The starting lineup for the Lakers is slightly different but his comment addresses what needs to be said.

As for your preview (and Dave's), know that the Lakers will start Fish, Kobe, Vladimir Radmaiovic, Gasol and Bynum. The reason is simple, with two seven footers (even through both run well), this is not a lineup that will fast break all that much. (However, Gasol and Bynum both like to beat their opposing number down the floor and get deep early postion, where they are hard to stop.) What Radman does is spread the defense — Bynum and Pau are good inside, Kobe slashes and if you help off Radman he will bury the three. The Lakers are maybe the best passing team in the NBA, one through nine, and they are familiar with the offense and finding the open man. They move the ball well.

The Lakers use a second unit anchored by Odom, Ariza and Farmar to totally change the tempo, they are aggressive at both ends and like to run. In the preseason, the bench has extended a lot of leads. We'll see what happens when it matters.