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Greg Oden will never be a 20-10 guy.

The closer we get to the season beginning; I’m naturally reading more and more previews and predictions.  Now as I read I’ve begun to notice a theme that most of the national media adopt when talking about Greg Oden.  Most of what I read states the Oden probably won’t become a 20-10 player. Now invariably they explain their reasons. I for the most part disagree so I’m writing this post to get my feelings out and to read your responses.

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Reasons Oden won’t become a 20-10 guy:

 

1. He wasn’t a big time scorer in College.

This is true, but I think it ignores the new order of things.  In the past players went to college for 2-4 years before leaving for the draft.  Now you have one and dones, who spend a year in college, then declare for the draft.  Why is this important, you ask? Because if you look at the modern Centers (those who were active during the 90’s, the ones Oden will most be compared to) most of them had four years of college and came into the league averaging 20-10.  If you look at the two star centers I feel Oden most compares to David Robinson and Patrick Ewing, their freshman years are comparable. (The exception being Ewing whose soph. year compares the best) Actually Ewing averaged 15 and 9 for his collegiate career. Robinson came in to the NBA at 24 and Ewing at 23.  Oden is 20 right now!!  With all his physical skills in a couple of years Oden could and should be averaging 20 and 10.  Just like with High school players you need to allow time that would have been college years. (i.e. Dwight Howard…)

 

2.  With the microfracture surgery he has lost some of his athletic ability.

I find this hard to swallow. First I think that the media is focusing mostly on the negative microfracture surgeries.  Yes it’s true that the negative outweighs the positive stories, but the age of Oden (19) and the advances in the procedure its self, added to the year of forced rehab, makes me believe he’ll be fine.  I think that any roughness you see in his game has more to do with the year break, new weight and just remembering how to play.

 

3. He’s emotionally fragile, and doesn’t have that killer instinct.

Really? I mean do I need to write a rebuttal to this?  Yes he’s not the second coming of Shaq, and yes he is a nice guy a,  “benign giant.” But come on he’s a player who wants to win, he has won on every level.  Look at his performance in the NCAA Championship game; read his quotes about watching the team for a year, he will compete.  And how would you feel if you just spent a year sitting/rehabbing watching a team after every loss make a comment about how if you were there this or that weakness would have been addressed… not very great huh. You’d feel like you had something to prove huh?,,,  This will fade once he gets into the flow of the season.

 

Greg Oden is a special player with the ability to be a great center, he’s also a wonderful person, and is anyone else excited about the fact that he’s just 20? I mean in five years he’ll only be twenty-five!!!!!

Anyway those are my thoughts on the matter.

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2 recs  |  Comment 60 comments

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I have read every Blazer season preview that has been released

and none of them I can remember say Oden will never be a 20/10 guy. Although almost all of them say he will not be a 20/10 guy this year. Are you sure you read them right?

In any case, I agree with you on your arguements, Oden will be a beast in the paint once he has a go to move that is not a dunk. If he can get his jump hook down to a reliable shot, and get his foot work on it as good as his foot work is on his dunk, he will be unstoppable ala shaq in his prime.

by usmcr3049 on Oct 24, 2008 8:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

After he loses 20 lbs

he won’t need any moves besides the dunk. He will simply takeoff from the freethrow line with thunder dunks. Every team will fear him and their cheerleaders will cry, tears of joy. Oden will shoot 100% from the field and the blazers will triumph over all.

Oh yeah, and he will average 40/20

by Fund A Mental on Oct 24, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...by halftime.

"Personally, I'd rather give an elephant a prostate exam on Chili Day." --Dave on rooting for the Lakers or Celtics

by MiledAnimal on Oct 24, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If By 40/20 you mean...

40 rebounds and 20 blocks, then yeah i agree. Of course he will average at LEAST 100 points per game ;)

Go M's

by OBF on Oct 24, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes I'm reading them right :)

every national mag I’ve read have made references in at least one article, only one straight said it. thats not saying that all have said it.

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would not anticipate more than 14 ppg for Oden this year...

………………………….. Barring a reconstruction of the offense that runs everything through him. He seems pretty much a 5-feet-in kinda guy, at his best mashing the ball through the hoop from 0.0". There are only so may putbacks and stuffable low post passes in a game. It seems self-evident that Oden is not the second coming of Tim Duncan or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar…

If you conceive of him as a baby Shaq, that gets close. He MIGHT expand his range; and the team SHOULD over time figure out how to use him better… But the people with delusions of 30/18/6 or whatever are going to need a quick reality check.

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 24, 2008 8:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

30/18/6

Hmmm. That sounds about right. ;)

by parkinglotj on Oct 24, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

only if she 5'3

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Oct 24, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

Rec'd

Props for the Sir-Mix-A-Lot reference. Well played.

by DonkeyShins on Oct 24, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baby Shaq?

That usually applied to guys who are fat and short not tall and powerful. Wasnt Shaq less than 300lbs when he came in the league and he came out after his junior year so he had 2 more years of cafeteria food, so I am hopeful that Oden will be Shaq (good Shaq) like in his first few years.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Oct 24, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good grief, timbo

Oden is not at his best mashing the ball through the hoop from 0.0". That’s silly.

He’s at his best mashing the ball through the hoop from 7-8 feet away.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 24, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reality is Boring

"It's not who jumps the highest -- it's who wants it the most" Buck Williams

by Fund A Mental on Oct 24, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

strawman

There is nobody with delusions of 30/18/6.

by Jumbo on Oct 24, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah those numbers are way too low.

Sergio will explode this year as the best NBA player ever and will take revenge impregnating all Portland and Blazers with the "chocolate" word.

-Almart1

by einman77 on Oct 24, 2008 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Give Greg a year or two

The reason he has a very good shot at being a 20/10 guy is that he’s a double and triple team magnet, he’s going to draw a lot of fouls and he can hit free throws. If Greg averages 10 trips to the line in a couple of years and can hit 70% and then add that to the 4 or 5 dunks he’ll probably get on a given night and mix in a couple of tip-ins of putbacks and you’re looking at pretty good offensive output.

10 boards a game are probably a low estimate as I think he’ll probably average more like 12 to 14 a game in his prime.

He just needs some time.

by nikolokolus on Oct 24, 2008 8:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

He IS the second coming of Shaq, but on a better team and with much better passing moves.

We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.

by ratbastird on Oct 24, 2008 8:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow

that is a shocking statement. Shaq is one of the best passing big men of his generation.

What I would say is, Greg shows great passing potential and has more passing skills than Shaq had at this point in his career.

Word.

by joelor on Oct 24, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't want another shack

give me a robinson or ewing please, much more refined offfensive game and they didn’t sacrifice the defensive side later in their careers

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sabonis is the best passing big man of his generation

And Wilt is the best passing big man ever.

WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 24, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but I would say that Roy is better than Penny

I’d take Roy/Oden over Penny/Shaq(circa 1993)… that’d be a fum gae of NBA Jam.

by NWfan on Oct 24, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops..."game" of NBA Jam

that 2on 2 game of the 90’s

by NWfan on Oct 24, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man oh man... NBA jam Needs to bring it back RIGHT NOW

Roy/LMA/Oden
Pierce/Allen/Garnett
James/Ilgauskas
Jamison/Arenas
Kidd/Dirk
Yao/T-Mac
Paul/Chandler
Duncan/Parker
Melo/Answer/K-mart
Williams/Boozer
Nash/Stat…

And I dont care what the haters say…

Bynum/freakin Kobe

This game would be one for the history books.

also ARK then L+R+Start+X
 Rock it all presidential style.

by everett on Oct 24, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow

thats a tough one…didnt shaq and penny go to the conference finals their first year together? or was it their 2nd year?

by Philthyanimal on Oct 24, 2008 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually Greg's college stats had less to do with him being a freshman

and more to do with coming off wrist surgery. I mean, the guy was shooting FTs left-handed. It wasn’t until the tournament that he really started to get less tentative, and then he was limited by a bunch of stupid foul calls. Remember, in essentially the one game he got to play the entire game (against Florida), he threw up something like 25 and 13, despite Motta completely mismanaging his minutes and not giving him enough rest and the fact that he was playing against 3 big men that are currently in the NBA (Noah, Horford, Richard).

The only things that could possibly prevent Oden from being a 20-10 guy at some point in the next 5 years are Brandon, Lamarcus, and injuries. It’s pretty rare for a team to have 3 guys all above 20 unless you play at a super fast pace, not likely for us. Still, I’d be pretty shocked if GO doesn’t hit that threshold at some point, even with those guys around.

by Royster on Oct 24, 2008 8:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

the injury and the lack of reliable offensive game

What I was trying to point out was that if he stayed in college he would have picked up a more complete game, and so you need to allow him 2-3 years to develop that in the NBA. most of the HOFer at the center position in the modern era put up similar numbers as freshman or sophmores.

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

as for running

I think we’ll get back to the running ala Drexler era blazers eventually. Realize best case senario we have oden for 15 years

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not? Let's compare him to Howard

Howard started out with just (all rounded) 12 and 10 in 32 minutes, which could be pretty close to what Oden does this year. Then he steadily got better and got more playing time: 16 and 12. 17.5 and 12. And now over 20 and 14 last season in almost 38 minutes. Plus two blocks and one assist, which was pretty stable throughout his NBA years.

Greg is a better free throw shooter than Howard, and likely a better passer so he could instantly get more assists and points off FTs. His post moves are raw, but so were Howards. Greg has a much stronger lower body, which is highly important to get into position and back down your defender under the basket where a true center will get most of his points (and the easiest ones), or keep your opponents away from the rebound without committing a foul.

In three years, Greg could easily be a 20 and 12 guy despite having a great PF next to him and solid backup behind him who takes a few of his rebounds and points away.

Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)

by Norsktroll on Oct 24, 2008 8:57 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

exactly

that was one of my major points, please give him time.

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WHO CARES !!!!!!

The only thing that matters are WINS !!!!!

If you think that all that matters are statistics, then go root for Zach Randolph. Z-Bo used to also be known as Stat-Bo, because his personal stats were so important to him.

Basketball is a team game, and people who place an emphasis on individual player statistics are barely displaying even a pedestrian understanding of what it takes to win.

Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony are usually both in the top in scoring in the league and yet Denver can’t even win a playoff series, let alone contend for a championship.

Individual stats are so irrelevant.

Phil

by Philski on Oct 24, 2008 9:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

There are guys like Rudy and Posey whos stats dont show that they make the people around them better.We would be be better off if Greg turns out to be a 15 and 15 guy

by southern oregon on Oct 24, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no kidding

Zach Randolph is a 20 and 10 guy;-)

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Oct 24, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

in response to all that

wow calm down, I’m not trying to elevate individual stats over the team or wins. As dave has written the thing that makes the playoffs hard is the fact the the opposing team takes away options 1-3 and the best way to win is to have multiple options. at the most basic level Oden has the potential to be 20/10 just like roy and aldridge (maybe even, rudy and jerry’d) have the potential to be 20pt/game
players, it makes no sense to not develop that talent especially when we start making the playoff.

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly

If Zach “I’m as wide as a barn” Randolph can pull a 20 and 10, I think Oden can get there too.

WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 24, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

greg will be awesome even if the stats dont show it. hell he has already opened things up for LMA. LMA has had open looks like no other this year.

by Philthyanimal on Oct 24, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would prefer Oden

to be a 10/20 guy myself.

BTW for all those who got to watch Oden in preseason, were they throwing any lobs to Oden after guard penetration? After watching NOH and the Magic, this play seems a key ingredient in getting athletic bigs with a questionable post game, Howard and Chandler, some easy points. Maybe we need to see some Sergio out there with Oden to make this happen?

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Oct 24, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Rudy tried it

In the Clipper game, but Rudy’s pass was bad and hit the rim. It was a good idea, and something I think we’ll see a lot of as well.

Rudy drove across the lane, flipped it up like he would do in the Olympics, and DINK— hit the rim and Oden leapt in vain. It woulda’ been a nice dunk too, since Oden was left alone because of the attention Rudy got from Oden’s defender!

I wanna see more lobs.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Oct 24, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

YES,

me too. Getting teams afraid of that happening to them, can only bring good things!

by lethaldose on Oct 24, 2008 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am also unconcerned with GO averaging 20 points

But I think he’ll eventually do so. He should average 10 just off offensive rebound putbacks. And on a team with good passers, those soft hands of his will be a big asset. He doesn’t really need fancy moves or a jumper to score well.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Oct 24, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't recall....

reading any articles that speculate on Oden’s entire career. I’ve read 2 dozen talking about this year, and yeah some are “underwhelming” predictions but only compared to his high expectations. So maybe some sources would make this worth debating…

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Oct 24, 2008 10:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

hmm if you feel that way then why comment??

okay this is the most recent one I read. SI make a comment about his ability to be 20/10 eventually in there feature on him… the three things I wrote about have been written and talked about as reason Oden won’t perform like Portland might think he will. thats why I wrote this post to see what the community felt about it. I’m happy that they don’t care :)

by SamGoody on Oct 24, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the L.A. Clippers game

was a good showing for Oden. Sounded like he was really owning Kaman, and that’s a guy who had huge numbers last season. Przybilla seems ready to go this year too, he’s really taken over that enforcer role.

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Oct 24, 2008 10:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Reasons why one shouldn't say this:

1. He’s 20 – we can’t possible know the direction this guy is going, whether it’s up or down. To say that he can’t improve to be a consistent 20/10 guy is a big supposition.

2. Kevin Pritchard/Paul Allen combo – should his surgery ever become an issue, Allen and Pritchard will create bionic legs that will keep Oden a dominant force in the league for the next 40 years.

by Griff on Oct 24, 2008 11:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Slamma-Jamma

Has it ever occurred to some that this 20/10 proposition is little more than something the media makes up? Did Russell average 20/10. Does anyone remember that when Wilt stopped trying to score 100 ppg, and instead went after 20 rpg, he won his championship?

To start with, defense, blocks.,rebounds, screens and decoying the other center/pf are Oden’s most important contribution. I’m far more interested in that 12 – 15 rpg stat, 2-3 blocks, and altered shots. Points for a player like Oden are gravy. Give me 15 ppg his second year, and those rpg’s and blocks, and we’ll win championships.

His job is to develop one more shot that he can use within 5-7 feet – the hook. Other than that, his job is to control the basket. As in “dunk on you head”, or “make you eat the ball”, or “welcome to the floor”, or “let me extract my elbow from your mouth”. Defense, my friends. Let Oden take the inside game away on defense, and screen the big men down low so the Roy/Rudy/Bayless can play slamma-jamma- and pop in those little running 5- 7 footers, and we’ll win even more championships.

by Eben Calder on Oct 24, 2008 1:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

this man has the right idea

OT just a bit here, anyone else believe Nate will not be the coach of this team when it really hits its stride? I love nate, and I think he is a great coach, but there is alot of talk about how nate won’t let the team run, and how he wants control over the team. That stuff seems to work well with a really young team, but once these guys are all experienced they will want to free flow more than not. Hopefully nate can make that adjustment.

by usmcr3049 on Oct 24, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if we hit a glass ceiling

then i can picture a change at head coach. honestly if we don’t pull off several runs at the title in the next 6 years and everyone stays healthy…i’m fairly certain nate will be the scapegoat.

by Philthyanimal on Oct 24, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I always felt Patrick Ewing’s downfall was developing and falling in love with that deadly fadeaway jumpshot. What a waste of a gifted shotblocker & rebounder! My childhood team—the Golden State Warriors—won their championship with two Przybilla-types sharing the post: George Johnson & Clifford Ray. The Blazers have plenty of players capable of racking up points, and there’s only one ball. Let GO (& Przy) dominate down low while the other guys do the pretty stuff.

P.S. I savored a moment during one an All-Star game old-timer’s contest (@ halftime). Former Warrior teammates Nate (The Great) Thurmond (who Maurice Lucas has compared Oden to) & Rick Barry were on opposite teams. On two or three occasions, Nate blasted Barry shot attempts into about the 10th row. I believe his message was, “You got the credit all those years with your fancypants shooting, but I was the guy in the trenches racking up wins for our team.”

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Oct 24, 2008 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

once again

I find it necessary to again point out that developing him to be a complete player is important for later in the playoffs and I think that with his talent that will mean 20/10 eventually, this also means developing his passing and unselfishness which it is looking like that won’t be hard. I’m not saying that the blazers should focus on getting oden his points, to the determent of the team. I think that greg will average 10-14 points a game and this is without too many plays made up for him. That won’t stay that way, he will have a portion of the playbook eventually dedicated to him.

by SamGoody on Oct 25, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If players keep putting a bounty on Oden

I think he is a 20/15 guy this season.

by Dragonage on Oct 24, 2008 2:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like the part about his attitude

I really get sick of people saying that he’s a nice guy and that won’t translate well into competition. It’s just a way for nay-sayers to back up their point. I don’t want to spend a lot of time on it either because it doesn’t really warrant comment if you’ve ever seen this guy play, but it drives me nuts when I hear it and I appreciate the fact that you addressed it.

Sergio will explode this year as the best NBA player ever and will take revenge impregnating all Portland and Blazers with the "chocolate" word.

-Almart1

by einman77 on Oct 24, 2008 6:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Have you ever met Maurice Lucas?

He’s the nicest guy you’d want to meet. Off the court, that is. Who says GO is too nice a guy? We’ll find out about that when someone tries a cheap shot against GO or one of his teammates. I think we’ll discover that GO is tough enough when he needs to be.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Oct 24, 2008 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

None of these articles matter.

10-20 years from now everyone will be saying “this guy could be the next Greg Oden”.

by Bskey on Oct 25, 2008 4:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Crazy Talk

he will get 10 pts a game from offensive boards. he has a ways to go to be better rebounding than joel though.

by riccc_l on Oct 25, 2008 3:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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