But that’s what I like about the site. You keep our expectations realistic. It makes the great things that happen even better.

Normative and positive. Positive economic analysis is the study of what is. Normative analysis is, essentially, the study of what can be.

Dave, you are the epitome of a positive analyst, while Ben is more of a normative thinker. I think that is what makes Blazersedge such a great blog. It has a wonderful mix of analyzing the present and looking toward the future.

only got a top 4 seed for sure. I thought it was all division winners and the next best record in the top 4 seeds with the order being decided by best record.

Also, I think you should include a prediction for the opener and home opener. I mean, that’s what I’m most concerned about right now. I can’t wait for the season to start.

I’m going to go positive:
Blazers 105
L*kers 99

Blazers 92
Spurs 89

45 wins 7th seed
1-4 against Hornets in the first round

the Blazers will start slow, finish strong, and really scare someone in the first round of the playoffs.

a good pick for a lakers hater, but I will go with the lakers as I more indifferent to them (possibly making me less likely to love them in the future?) as I think Bynum will be able to take away some of Chandler lobs that make so much hay for the Hornets and are really only defendable by a few high jumping centers.

Brandon Roy is the leading scorer. I thought Aldridge would be the leading scorer by a lot last year, but Roy is more consistently good and that makes the difference.

last year it was very clear, blazers fans should root for the (elti(s, because they were playing the l*kers who we were raised to dislike, milesgate has somewhat leveled the playing field, if we had to replay last years finals again, any satisfaction gained by seeing the l*kers lose, would be somewhat offset by seeing the (elti(s win.

I think dave is just cleaverly avoiding controversy,

I’ll predict the boring-as-paste l*kers vs (elti(s and it goes to 7 games, at which point some time early in the 4th quarter, one of the teams goes up by 20, and either KG’s or Kobe’s ego detonates killing both sides instantly, one side claims victory while the other claims Kobe or the ghost of Red Auerbach would have brought them back, but no one ever truly knows, Chris Paul and Lebron feel guilty for having lost in the conference finals and go cuckoo becoming shells of their former selves until KP picks them up in exchange for the return of New Orleans and Clevelands own second round picks, and explains to them that it wasn’t their fault. Lamarcus Aldrige and Greg Oden get traded for Zach Randolph and Shawn Bradley and the ’Zers dominate with the All-NBA first name is a last name lineup of paul/roy/james/randolph/bradley

It won’t be as unanimous as Roy’s win, but Oden will get all the bestest votes.

Beasley: everyone hates him, won’t get enough shots, his coach will try to make sure he is playing right to make him grow up.

Rose: Rookie PG, so-so teammates, only one year in college. Will be great, needs more time.

OJ Mayo: Will shoot low 40% or lower, share the ball with Rudy Gay, and the team will suck. Even if he scores 18ppg, everyone will point to his horrible percentage and bad team.

Kevin Love: He’ll be solid, but I can’t see him having better pure numbers than Oden and we know his team won’t be as good.

No one else is a serious candidate for ROY, if ya ask me. Oden will get the minutes, be on a team that gets MAJOR national attention, and every media writer (and they’re the voters) already loves Greg and WANTS to give the award to him as properly scripted. The buzz will be how the award usually goes for best stats, not best player, and that this will change dangit! Oden made this young team lots better and will easily win ROY, even if his numbers aren’t outstanding.

HOWEVER, I think Oden will actually have the best pure stats out of the entire group. An easy double/double, at least 2 blocks, and perhaps 1.5 assists or up. Only OJ Mayo will be able to get enough shots for big numbers, and he is an undersized SG (and not quick and explosive like similarly undersized Wade). He’ll be good, but have a rough shooting rookie year (I state it as a fact because I have seen the future but only use my powers for NBA prognistication.)

Love could do a double double, but he’ll have his own problems being a super slow, SUPER undersized and out of shape 6’8"-on-a-good-day PF in the NBA. Plus, no one will see the Wolves this season.

All eyes are on us. Even if Oden ONLY plays as well as he has played this pre-season (which I highly doubt; he’ll continue to get in better shape and more confident), he’s got the ROY sewed up.

Of course, this all doesn’t really matter. As long as he’s healthy and we’re winning, I honestly don’t care that much about ROY. It still is a cool award and really helps a player’s confidence, and starts the first chapter in Oden’s legend off on the right foot. But really— I’m cool with him not getting the award.

Oh… and Rudy will get votes, and everyone loves him, but he’ll only be able to win the award if his numbers are OUTSTANDING. They very well might be, but I don’t think he’ll get those numbers consistently— though we’ve already seen how Rudy can have a terrific, game altering performance and not have it completely show up in the box score. 12 ppg and 3 assists and a steal would be a TERRIFIC rookie year for him, and he’ll be more valuable than even those numbers.

If Raw as Cookie Dough pre-season Oden can do 13 and 8 in 23 minutes a night, the Oden that has some more time to bake in the oven and get used to the NBA will be able to top it.

My bold, homerish prediction: 51 and 31, 7th seed. If we face the Lakers in the 1st round, we murderalize ‘em. If we face the Hornets, it goes 7 games and we lose in New Orleans. If we face the Spurs, we lose in 5. They’ll out veteran us to pieces.

For the award races, we can’t underestimate how much we’ll be in the national spotlight, on TNT, how popular Oden already is, and our record that will be directly tied to adding Oden to the team. The award is his to lose and I doubt he loses it.

Obviously, like always, I still pretty much agree with everything else Dave says.

Mortimer

I’ve looked at our schedule pretty closely, and all I see are *W*s, no *L*s at all. So that puts us at 82 wins, which means 2nd round of playoffs at least.

An even assessment?

I’ve been working on a prediction post for a while. ah well. I will attempt to copy and past over and hopefully this will work.

My predictions:

Steve Blake stays our PG.  Bayless hasn’t shown he has it yet and Sergio isn’t that good yet, but fills a nice energy role.  Rudy and Roy may take time at the point, but I think Steve is the Starter.

The Small Forward Position will go to Webster.  Batum will be the back-up and Roy will see some time in this position as well.

Sergio is our #2 PG.  This is coming from the guy who predicted that Bayless would be a starter half way through the year.  Bayless seems to be trying to hard, and that never works out well.  He needs to find his rhythm.  Until he does, Sergio will definitely be the better Point Guard.  His chemistry with Rudy wil also help him out.

Oden will play only 20 minutes a game for the first month of the regular season.  Even with that he’s going to be tired and drained.  Despite this I think that 15 pts and 10 rebound average is perfectly doable.  I don’t see his minutes increasing by more than 30 very often.

Wins will be abundant.  I’ve been in the 48-52 camp for a while now.  I believe the only thing holding us back from more will be the fact that this is a BRAND NEW TEAM, yet again, and Oden’s conditioning.   Because we’re a new team again, we’ll be learning where team mates go, move, and how they think.  This will cost us some games.  Other teams can run plays with their eyes shut.  We can’t yet.  Oden’s conditioning will effect how tired he is, how long he can last, and whether he’ll play more than 20 minutes. 

Webster will show why he’s the starter.  He’s not going to impress with a high scoring average, but he’ll do the little things that help teams win.  This is his year, but if he does it right, it’ll be a quiet year because what he needs to do doesn’t all fit the stat lines.  You’ll see it on the floor though.

Rudy is going to tear it up.   He’s also going to have minor injuries during the year.  He doesn’t hold back and that’s why we love him, but that sort of play can also grind up the body with little knick knack injuries.

Aldridge will average over 20 points a game and 9 rebounds and 1 block.  He doesn’t make the all-star team, but he does get media recognition for being better than expected.

Roy’s scoring goes up a little, and he averages one more assist this year.

Nate‘s job wouldn’t last more than four losses, if it were up to the vocal blazer fans.  People will be calling for nate to be fired again despite the fact he has ANOTHER brand new team to deal with.

This is the last year for brand new teams.

We win in LA the first game.

We win against the Spurs at home.

We will have win streaks and losing streaks.

So, those are the things that I posted and I wanted to wait until the Jazz game so I could get a feel of people in person.

So, final predictions for the wins? I’ve been in the 48-52 camp for a while then I watched the jazz game and watched Blazer scrubs build a ten point lead… I began to wonder… then they lost a ten point lead. We have a team with the potential to win 60 games. I don’t think we will. We’re young and still learning and 60 games really requires experience from everyone. It’s about how the ball bounces, but also that quick second decision and that little inch that makes a difference, and the blazers just aren’t that fine tuned yet. Even with great chemistry, I don’t think they will be.

I look out at the teams out there, and I’m not afraid of any of them. all of them are beatable for us.

Regular season prediction: 52 wins. I’ve been dead on or only one off the past three years, let’s hope that trend continues. The assumption is that we avoid major injury. If we have some short term naggging injuries we could see that number fall to 48. Major injuries and we could fall down to 44.

I have no illusions about the Blazers going deep into the playoffs – if they get into the first round, I’ll look upon that as ‘mission accomplished’ (but not in the GWB sense) for this season. My hope is that we go up against the Lakers in the postseason and make them scared. I want to see Kobe and company nervous. I want to see the Blazers get into their heads for the 2009-10 season so they can wipe the floor with them like a Swiffer™.

Championship in 2010.

No way. They’ll be lucky if they reach playoffs. Nash, Stoudemire and Shaq are one year older. And after Shaq trade they were a worse team last year. Their Stars will struggle at the end of the regular season because they are too old. My prediction:

1. Lakers
2. Hornets
3. Jazz
4. Rockets/Spurs
5. Spurs/Rockets
6. Blazers
7. Mavericks
8. Suns?/Clippers?

1st Round:

Lakers def. Suns/Clippers (4-0?).
Hornets def. Mavs.
Jazz def. Blazers.
Rockets def. Spurs.

2nd Round:

Lakers def. Rockets.
Hornets def. Rockets.

Conf. Final:

Lakers def. Hornets.

I’m quite agree with you in the East.

Quit writing things that make me throw up.

I think a percentage of Blazers fans will be disappointed but I think those predictions are pretty solid. My feeling is we went .500 last season and did NOT make the playoffs, so I’ll be happy if we improve on .500 and get the experience of making The Playoffs. So I agree with about where your predictions land.

In my dream of dreams we upset The Lakers in the first round. Hey, it’s a dream why not? As a Blazer fan I fully expect pushing the Lakers to the edge in a 7 game series that serves notice to The Lakers and the rest of the league.

Been working through it on my own blog month by month.

1-1 October
10-6 in November
8-6 in December
9-5 in January
4-2 in February before All -Star Break (32 – 20 at the break)
4-2 in February after All-Star break
12-4 in March
5-3 in April

that assumes a couple bad losses, a couple surprising wins…and tough times against the L*kers, Jazz, Suns, Spurs and Nuggets. And being swept by Boston.

Last year I was a shade optimistic, putting the Blazers at 43- 44 wins. This year, maybe I am optimistic again…and so much depends on how they come out of the gate. If they don’t split the first 2, that means it will be game 6 (Minnesota) before they get a win and they might start out 3-15 with their confidence shot. That seems far less likely.

:)

East:
1. Celtics
2. Pistons
3. Cavs
4. Philly
5. Magic
6. Wizards
7. Toronto
8. Chicago

E. Playoffs:

C’s over Bulls
Pistons over Raptors
Cavs over Wiz
Magic over Philly

C’s over Magic
Cavs over Pistons

Cavs over C’s (no way the Boston Big 3 can repeat.)

West:

1. Hornets
2. L*kers
3. Spurs
4. Your Porrrrrtland TraaaaaiiiiiilBlaaaaazers!
5. Rockets
6. Utah
7. Suns
8. Dallas

W. Playoffs:

Hornets over Dallas
L*kers over Suns
Utah over Spurs
PTB over Houston

Hornets over PTB (in a classic 7 game series)
L*kers over Utah
Hornets over L*kers

Finals: Hornets over Cavs in 6 games

Season MVP: LeBron (followed in a close vote by CP3)
ROY: Oden
6th man: I really want to say Rudy. So I will: Rudy!
Coach of Year: Nate
Exec of Year: Pritchard

Roy and LMA make All-Star team. We make NO deal at the deadline.

There. Those predictions feel like their nicely towing the “possible, but not probable line”.

Who is next in line for a pritch slap.

Blazers Regular Season Record
52 Wins – 30 Loses and we win the division beating the Jizz 3 of 4 games.
Unfortunately, I see us getting schooled in the ways of playoff basketball in the first round.

Western Conference
1 L.A. Fl*kers
2 New Orleans Hornets
3 Houston Rockets
4 Portland Trail Blazers
5 San Antonio Spurs
6 Utah Jazz
7 Phoenix Suns
8 Dallas Mavericks

Round 1

L*kers def. Mavericks
Hornets def. Suns
Rockets def. Jazz
Spurs def. Blazers

Round 2

L*kers def. Rockets
Hornets def. Spurs

Western Conference Finals

Hornets def. L*kers

NBA Finals

Celtics def. Hornets

I would rather see the Hornets win it all, but I just can’t go that far.

Healthy.

Health (just like everyone else) is the key to success this season. I have no doubt that there will be growing pains this year, BUT I am also confident the players will gel fairly quickly this season.

I have GO predicted to win ROY, but by a short margin. I don’t underestimate the abilities of players like Mayo, Beasley, and of course, the usual random rookie that gets in the ROY mix. No doubt it my mind that they will have a decent year with good numbers. I just think GO will overcome that and still be a standout player in the league, EVEN if he isn’t putting up huge numbers like everyone else. Plus, everyone loves him around the league.

Steve Blake’s importance is crucial this year. With the versatility and space that GO will bring inside, he will have more opportunities to dish it to players like Roy, Aldridge and Rudy… all night long. He is also going to be the one setting the speed of the game, which is of the utmost importance. I know Roy does a good job of this as well, but he’s in charge of the 4th quarter. We will also need to count on his 3pt shooting. If he is dishing and hitting the wide open 3, watch out.

Aldridge will benefit the most out of GO being on the floor. He understands how to be successful in the league by picking his shots and positions more carefully. He will no longer have as many guys on him as last year due to the presence that is GO. LMA will have an outstanding year, and just like some others have stated, All-Star-esque, but not quite there.

Roy will be an All-Star again. This time he will be voted in by the fans. He will continue to take over games and be Mr. Consistency.

Rudy needs to be able to show his explosive and savvyness (sp?) throughout the year, but also needs to know when to not take gambles. I don’t want to put the chains on him, but we’re counting on him providing that spark off the bench with some consistency.

Predictions:

East
I’ll go out on a limb and say the Pistons get into the finals. They’ll steal it away because someone like Philadelphia or Toronto will upset the Celtics. Whoever shocks Boston will not be able to play against Detroit.

West
1. L*kers
2. Hornets
3. Rockets
4. Jazz
5. Spurs
6. Suns
7. Mavericks
8. Blazers

Round 1
L*kers def. Blazers
Hornets def. Mavericks
Suns def. Rockets
Jazz def. Spurs

Round 2
L*kers def. Suns
Hornets def. Jazz

WCF
Hornets def. L*kers (Kobe loses!)

Finals
Pistons def. Hornets in 6 games.

All in all, I think it’s a pretty good season. We battle through minor injuries like any other team, and just like last year, rise above adversity.

Go Blazers! :D

that when we have a prediction thread everyone makes their own prediction and there’s barely any conversation.

We all come here, paste in our prediction and at the end of the day it’s just 100 more season previews.

I think the Blazers can get to the second round. A playoff return is very attainable. Wouldn’t go deep into the playoffs, but will have a run that causes teams to open their eyes to us. Brandon will be an All Star, and merit some MVP consideration. GO for All Rookie Team

Eastern Conference

1 Boston Celtics

2 Orlando Magic

3 Toronto Raptors

4 Detroit Pistons

5 Cleveland Cavaliers

6 76er’s

7 Atlanta Hawks

8 Chicago Bulls

Round 1

Celtics def. Bulls

Magic def. Hawks

Raptors def. 76er’s

Cavaliers def. Pistons

Round 2

Cavaliers def. Celtics

Raptors def. Magic

Eastern Conference Finals

Cavs def. Raptors

Western Conference

1 L.A. L*kers

2 New Orleans Hornets

3 Utah Jazz

4 San Antonio Spurs

5 Houston Rockets

6 Portland Trail Blazers

7 Dallas Mavericks

8 Phoenix Suns

Round 1

L*kers def. Suns

Hornets def. Mavericks

Spurs def. Rockets

Blazers def. Jazz

Round 2

L*kers def. Spurs

Hornets def. Blazers

Western Conference Finals

Lakers def. Hornets

 
ay Allen is getting old, so are Pierce & KG (to some extent). The Celts also lost Posey who was more important than a lot of people think.
NBA Finals

 
Lakers def. Cavs

A few things to defend in these predictions:

1. The Raptors, they are going to have a great season. Even if Jermaine O’Neal sits on the bench all season, I think Chris Bosh combined with addition by subtraction(losing TJ Ford and the PG turmoil) will lead to a great season. Add to this the fact that I think that Bargnini will come out of his “sophmore slump” and actaully have a decent season, I think the Raptors will be more competitive than some people think.

2. The Cavaliers, this is a very bold prediction, clearly. All I can say is Lebron James has shown in the past couple of seasons that he can really step up and carry crappy teams into the playoffs. I think this year he will lead the Cavaliers past the Celtics because the Celtics have gotten a little worse. See below for more on the Celtics.

3. The Celtics, they really didn’t improve and in some sense (losing Posey, getting older) got worse. They barely made it through the playoffs last season, this season I think they won’t make it. I recognize they won a championship, but I think that series was lost by Lakers, mistakes combined with crappy play from Pau and Odom, rather than won by the Celtics

4. The Blazers, I don’t think a sixth seed is to difficult to reach. Last season a lot of teams were really bad and won hardly any games, this year those teams are (in a number of cases) vastly improved. This means that the top tier teams are going to win fewer games. With that said, I think that with 48-49 wins the Blazers will grab the sixth seed. In the first round the Blazers will play division rival Utah. Utah is a very good team, but also a team that Portland can match up very well against. Sure, the Boozer/Williams pick’n’rolls work for the Jazz, but the thing is the Jazz answer to GO is Mehmet Okur, to Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer. The Blazers are also quite a bit deeper than the Jazz. It’s not a coincidence that the Blazers won the season series against the Jazz last year. So I think we can beat the Jazz, in seven games, just one win in SLC.

Random Prediction for the team/league awards

ROY: OJ Mayo; he’ll be running, gunning and scoring with Rudy Gay & Mike Conley
MVP: not going to commit but either Lebron or CP3

Blazers:
Leading Scorer: LMA
Leading Assists: Roy
Leading Rebouner: Oden
Sixth Man: Rudy

Travis Outlaw will be the leading scorer off the bench but this may be his last year with that distinction.

And ………………fade. What? Why is that? Are you suggesting something? Because if Travis isnt going to be the teams leader bench scorer next year is it because you suggest the unspeakable, or maybe you’re saying he is due to start next year, or maybe you think Rudy or Bayless will take over the second string scoring duties. I really feel that line was like fishing without a worm on the hook. What do you mean?

The other thing, aren’t you just going LCD suggesting a first round PTB/LA match-up? 8th place? For fear of Homer, I suggest the PTB are better then 8. Does not count if it ends up 7 & 2… absolutes

We’ll see at least two Blazers traded before the deadline.

What do you base this statement on? Not sure if this is just TrailBlazer-babble or do you know something we dont?

very conspicuous answers… don’t think you are off the hook… and the spools been thread….