Re-Revisiting the 2007 Draft (Who We SHOULD HAVE Picked)
I've been thinking about this one for a while now, just wondering what the right timing would be to bring it up; today's Jack McCallum post at SI.com alluded to it with this paragraph:
The Blazers are good with plans. They had one before the Ping-Pong balls brought them Oden: to remake a team that had lost its nestling spot in the warm bosom of loyal Portland fans, having earned the sobriquet of Jail Blazers through the on-court and off-court misadventures of players such as Rasheed Wallace, Isaiah Rider, Damon Stoudamire, Bonzi Wells, Ruben Patterson, Zach Randolph, Qyntel Woods and Darius Miles. Pritchard (who arrived in 2004 as director of player personnel and was named G.M. late in the '06-07 season) and McMillan (who became coach before the '05-06 season) wanted to rebuild with what Pritchard calls "character guys." So far it has worked, not least because Pritchard pulled off some draft-day magic to get solid citizens Aldridge (from the Bulls) and Roy (from the Minnesota Timberwolves). Perhaps that karmic improvement was the reason the Blazers won the '07 lottery despite having only a 5.3% chance to do so.
In other words, we were on track for a resurgence without nailing that #1 pick, and last year's improvement proved it, showing how much better we had become without factoring in Oden.
However, even though we got a look at what our progress would be like without Oden, it didn't show us what we'd have instead of Oden (had the lottery played out the way The Odds dictate): the #6 pick in the draft.
So what I've been wondering is, what would we have done with the #6 pick? I wanna hear all of your opinions, and I'm gonna make some key assumptions:
- All 6 teams (Portland included) just straight-up pick at their positions, with no trades (yes, that's right - no voting for "Trade up to #1 and get Oden anyway", DUH).
- Our other key moves happen: We buy the rights to Rudy Fernandez as the #27 pick from Phoenix, we're set on re-acquiring Blake as a free agent, AND we do the Zach-for-the-BoG-and-Steve-Francis-buyout deal. So, take into account that Blake is coming back, Rudy is still in the long-term Blazer picture, and Zeeba Neighba is oh you tee OUT.
- Otherwise reset our roster to where it was at circa summer 2007. That means our centers are Przy, Raef, and . . . uh, I don't know (we do get Channing, remember, so LaMardridge is available to play some center). I guess this is what we got 41 wins with last year, huh? And guards and forwards are pretty much still as they are now.
- The top six picks go in order of finish, as if there was no lottery.
- Try to employ minimal hindsight; don't judge draftees by how they played last year, just rate them by what they had shown as of June 2007, as non-NBAers. This is gonna make it REALLY hard with some guys near the bottom of my POLL list being top-8 quality as NBA players.
That said, here's how I see it playing out, with the forecast in two steps:
Step One: Who's Off The Board
#1 and #2 picks (to Grizzlies and Celtics) - Odurant. I defy anyone to think either one would've slipped.
#3 (to Milwaukee) - Al Horford, who went here anyway, to Atlanta. He came on strong in the draft workouts, and there were even some people weighing him against Durant. On top of that, he fills exactly the same power forward need the Bucks were hoping to fill (but failed) when they settled for Yi Jianlian with their real-life #6 pick.
#4 (to Atlanta) - Didn't they still need a point guard? Why yes they did. So Conley STILL goes here, as he did in reality to Memphis. The #11 pick Atlanta used on Acie Law IV would be affected, of course, but they'd still go Conley over Acie, easy.
#5 (to Seattle) - And whaddya know? Jeff Green went here, to Boston, and was the main piece Boston got in return for Ray Allen. I'm guessing that Seattle had him targeted, and with this pick, they take him anyway. Heck, in a no-Durant scenario, this small forward is even MORE of a shoe-in. (Too bad; before the lottery swung Oden to us, Green is the guy I was clamoring for. But I have him off the board, dammit.)
Okay, so far, the same 5 picks, in the same order, just to entirely different teams. That made sense. Now . . .
Step Two: Who We Pick From Who's Left
Who's left (ten-deep, in order of how they were picked, and now it's POLL time):
WOW, that's a lot of undersized forwards . . .
50 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
#4`
would have gone to Phoenix unless Atlanta landed in the top 3. And I doubt they’d have used it on Conley …
They might
Nash needs a back-up.
There were a lot of options in this poll, and I now realize I overlooked Al Thornton, who is kinda clearly the correct answer.
Claire Redfield dunk shot: missed
Claire Redfield Off Rebound (5 REB)
Claire Redfield jump hook shot: made (26 PTS)
Oh hey! That's right!
Hmmmm . . . and it was before the Marion/Shaq trade . . .
before even Marion’s non-team vibe early in the season . . .
Jeez.
That does change things.
I can’t believe I forgot that.
"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless
I like this post
With no hindsight I would have definitely gone with Brewer, which is one of the many reasons I will never be allowed to evaluate talent, as I thought he looked really good in the tourney. I still hope he comes around as a player, but he may have a hard time if he doesent have the chemistry to fill out some more. The talent is hard to deny, but the body is questionable. I am guessing KP would have gone with some like Young, Noah, Thornton, or maybe Stuckey.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
exactly at that time i would have gone with Brewer
with hindsight I think Stuckey is going to be the best
Buy this sig space!
Mea culpa: me too
That is, I would have opted for Brewer at the time. So that’s who I said in the poll. But likely KP had his eye on someone better.
Fortunately, in the wake of the Whitsett/ Patterson years, the Blazers now have a GM that’s smarter than most (if not ALL) of us.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
Instead we got the last remaining B-Rex a year later

Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)
Man, just looking at that list gets me depressed.
I guess my imagination is too vivid sometimes.
Palin drone: a statement that is equally nonsensical whether uttered or written forward or backward.
my pick is T. Young
You can also make a legit case for B. Wright, Noah, J. Wright, Thornton and Stuckey IMO.
Boomshakalaka
I liked him too
or B Wright. I’m confused why everyone picked Stuckey. Where would we play him? We already had Roy…why not go for a SF?
by MavetheGreat on Oct 23, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I think people
Envision him more as a PG, and not a SG. He’s a combo guard, but I think he’ll settle in as a PG. I know Dumars envisions Stuckey as Billups’ replacement at PG…
I’d prolly go for Young, then Julian Wright, maybe Thornton (though I don’t think he’ll be a good defender), Stuckey, and then maybe Brandon Wright even though we don’t need him. Just for trade value, if we were forced to draft him because the others are gone.
Noah will always be a good hustle player, but not someone we need.
Mortimer
With hindsight,
I go with Thaddeus, the guy’s a beast. Back then, I was in love with Brewer, though, I hate to admit. If we’d be trading Zach, though, I could see us going with Noah (*vomit*) or Brandan Wright.
What I don’t understand is why there are so many votes for Stuckey. The guy is solid, but given that we’d have Roy AND Rudy, not to mention Blake, he seems kind of redundant.
does that mean bayless is redundent?
they seem to be somwhat similar players from the very little of both players that i have seen.
by raging WebTed on Oct 23, 2008 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Remember, that was back when we were all convinced
Sergio was the PG of the future after his rookie year and there was even hope for Jack after he had a year of starting and was going into the next season as the starting PG. Since both of those guys were effectively out of the PG equation at draft time this year, Bayless was a lot less redundant. Now that Sergio looks to be forcing his way back into the mix, though, Bayless is looking a little redundant.
My point is that it depends on whether we’re judging who we would have picked based on their rookie seasons, or who we would have picked based on their college performances. Every single blazer fan would have revolted if we had taken Stuckey over any of those guys except possibly Nick Young, who was the one guy to go after him in the actual draft. It’s not quite as bad as complaining that we didn’t take Monta Ellis over Webster in 2005, but the same general principle.
that and he was a sleeper
I like our management team but we wouldn’t have picked stuckey in the lottery we would have pick him up later if we wanted him and if we had targeted him, he wasn’t heralded enough to go in the top 10
Cool question
I went with Brewer. Ime was gone and I was frustrated with Martell and Travis. Brewer was supposed to be an upgrade from Ime.
Of course, we didn’t get time to stew over summer workouts with these guys – with that, maybe some reports change my mind to Thornton or Julian Wright or Jake Noah.
The best athlete at that point is Julian Wright
He has slowly earned more minutes in New Orleans but he had to change positions from PF at Kansas to SF, his natural position. He played PF at KU because Brandon Rush was there as well and Rush could not play PF. That said Wright dominated every game he played including against eventual champion Florida.
I saw Wright as the best possible outcome after Oden and Durant. Even when wwe had the number 1 pick I was hoping for a trade into a spot that would snag Wright as well. I still believe he will be better than the rest and maybe better than Durant. He is certainly a better defender than all but Oden.
when you’ve been in a dry land even a little dew looks inviting —Dave
"When you want to win a game, you have to teach. When you lose a game, you have to learn." - Tom Landry
Actually, Julian Wright is more useful at power forward.
As a solid high-post facilitator and so-so weakside help defender, Wright does adequately at power forward with the Hornets’ second unit. Behind David West, there won’t be a lot of pressure on Wright at the 4 — as he’ll play roughly 12 minutes per game alongside Melvin Ely or Hilton Armstrong, who are battling it out for the backup center role — while Predrag Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, James Posey, Rasual Butler, and Devin Brown compete with one another for playing time at the two wing positions.
Wright, however, is a pretty weak man-to-man interior defender due to his tall, lanky build; that’s hindered other players who’ve got a similar physique — which includes Hakim Warrick, Travis Outlaw, et al. — but there’s nothing that he can do about his ectomorphic somatotype. For Wright’s sake, he’s just got to hope that he can somewhat contain shorter, stockier backup power forwards — such as Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiell, Leon Powe, Craig Smith, et al. — rather than attempt to fully stop them.
I like this post too
and I caught myself thinking about the same question today while listening to the Blazer game…eerie
So Durant goes to Boston, Simmons is happy, Ainge is happy, and Boston never trades for Allen and KG to win a championship?
Remember, they had a pretty young team at this point loaded with more or less decent assets (Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Bassy, Green, TREC). They probably would not have risked to make their team that much older if they had not dropped in the lottery. Revisionist history is weird sometimes.
Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)
You invent a time machine
And then use it to figure out how to turn good moments into bad ones? Seriously, I’m not letting you anywhere near my Delorean.
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Oct 23, 2008 11:49 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Plus, didn't you watch the draft this year?
Kevin Pritchard obviously has some slight mind control device, otherwise Bayless wouldn’t have slipped so far. There’s no way Conley is gone, ’cause KP was going to use his powers for the good of the franchise.
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Oct 23, 2008 11:52 PM PDT reply actions
I voted Brewer
mainly because that is what I thought then. I thought he would be the perimeter stopper we needed and develop a consistent shot in the NBA. I think I missed how skinny he was because of that t-shirt.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
This is the NBA... in the lottery you take BPA (best player available)
I thought, and still do think that the next best player out of that group will be Brandan Wright. He’s got a deadly inside game, that he doesn’t get to show off that often in Golden State. With him down low and LaMarcus being LaMarcus, we’d still have been crazy long crazy athletic and crazy good all over the place.
It should be noted that I’ve correctly picked independently of KP, 7 of our last 8 1st round draft picks.
Really?
Is that picking before anyone drafted, or as the Blazers were on the clock?
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Oct 24, 2008 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Please explain.
For instance – did you correctly pick 7 of 8 of Rush, Oden, Thomas, Freeland, Webster, Kleiza, Telfair, and Monia?
Or
Rush, Arthur, Oden, Thomas, Foye, Freeland, Webster, and Kleiza?
Or
Bayless, Batum, Oden, Fernandez, Aldridge, Roy, Rodriguez, and Freeland?
Or something completely different (I’m saying that because I might be overlooking somebody)? Those “this team drafting for another” makes this pretty weird.
My picks
I keep a running tally of the guys I wanted. For 2006 my #1 player was LaMarcus Aldridge, so getting him was the way I would’ve went. When we were up at #7 I really wanted Roy (he was my #1 G). When I found out we got the #26 pick from PHX I wanted Sergio. I didn’t pick the Freeland pick, as I had no idea who he was. Obviously in 2007, pretty much everybody wanted Greg. I was among that group. When I found out we bought the #24 pick from PHX I was on the phone with a friend saying “this better be Rudy, this better be Rudy”, and thankfully it was Rudy. I missed the Petteri pick, as I wanted McRoberts. We ended up getting him a little later. Then last year, after Joe Alexander was picked, I was saying Jerryd Bayless was the best possible outcome for the Blazers. I didn’t have any idea about the trade obviously, but was pretty excited after it came to be. Then, after Alexis Ajinca was picked, my favorite player left at that point was Batum, which KP again, moved in front of San Antonio to select himself. There is no chance that I could’ve pulled off all the moves KP did to get the picks and players he did, but as far as selecting a guy with those picks, we’ve ended up wanting the same guy so often its scary.
I'm going to want to talk to your before next year's draft.
I see an opportunity to pick up some betting money.
hakkaa päälle !
wasn't brewer on our lists
the hard part is we know who we should have picked based on their performance last season, but that can’t be confused with who we would have picked without a season to look at.
I’m thinking Brewer, he shoot better in the workouts than he did in real games and we would have been attracted to his defense ability???
maybe
Add me to the list of people that loved Brewer going in to that draft
Wouldn’t do it today of course, but back then…
Spencer Hawes
Clearly not a person on most people’s list, but he’s a project center, and I love Pryz but we do need more. I think that kid could have been a fill in. Noah, based on news i’ve heard, doesn’t sound like a character guy. SF… we have webster. Unless there’s a STAR SF out there in that lottery, why pick another SF that will be good not great? Webster still could be great, but he also blends with our starters.
We don’t have a back-up center, Aldridge playing out of position was bad for him and Frye’s not a center either. Definitely Hawes for me.
My second choice would be Al thorton.
We haven't done anything yet... but don't blink.
I remember being high on Brewer.
But I would have selected Noah if he were still on the board.
If I employ hindsight, Thadeus Young jumps up the list. I think that for the Blazers, Noah might have been the better fit, as center was more of a need position than PF.
hakkaa päälle !
I voted for hawes.
but I’d be using him as a pf, and selling aldridge(amongst others) for a all star center,…..
it’s a good thing I’m just a pee on. :)
p.s. I love aldridge. but that’s what I’d have done if we landed 6th.
The faith (and I'm a guy) perverts. :)
Hind sight: Thorton.
I remember wanting Brewer when I though we’d have no chance at Greg.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
Why do I always screw up on that wording convention?!?
What I meant was “For which of these guys would you trade Rudy?” Sophia called me out on that a while back and I still got it wrong here.
I guess the point I am trying to make is Rudy looks to me to be the fourth best 2007 pick after Oden, Durant, and Horford.
I wouldn't give up on Conley yet
Mike Conley will be a great player, I watched him at Ohio State, and he was the most productive player on that team, not Greg. He just has to develop a bit (20 year old point guards aren’t expected to produce right away, as seen with Jerryd). Anyway, you need at least 3 years to even begin to judge a draft class, I wouldn’t give up on those high potential guys unless they were turds off the court.
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Oct 24, 2008 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
At the time...
I was high on Julian Wright, Al Thornton, and Corey Brewer. I also really liked Stuckey, but there wasn’t any thought in my head that Portland should snag him at #6 (if we had that pick). Stuckey is a hindsight choice in this poll… I don’t believe anybody, nor any GM, would have taken him at #6. Thornton might also be a hindsight choice as well, because he slipped down to #12, I believe. But to toot my own horn, I was talking up Thornton and Wright. I particularly thought Thornton would have fit in perfectly with Portland… bringing that 3/4 combo that would still mix in quite well with this current team. I think Wright is along those same lines. Both players are playing some good ball in the league… and Thornton might just be the best player in that draft not named Oden or Durant (heck, he might even be better than Durant… from an all-around standpoint). Brewer hasn’t panned out… but the majority of NBA fans and pundits were excited about him. He might still find his niche… but it’s safe to say he has been disappointing thus far.
I voted Thornton. But maybe if I was being completely and totally honest, Julian Wright would have been my pick. Either way, we would have a good player on our hands.
And I am so incredibly geeked out that, even though a good topic, this post is in hypothetics… because we got GREG…. FREAKING… ODEN. wow… I still feel like rushing the court at the Rose Garden.
Oh yeah.
I guess my point in making this post is, without Oden, we were on the right track,
and with the pick we were likely to get, we’d’ve been headed for Very Good Times.
What Oden’s presence does is improve upon Very Good Times, to the point where
those Very Good Times we were headed for are now underwhelming
compared to what we’re REALLY gonna see.
"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless
Hawes was my number one choice
but I wouldn’t have suggested taking them at 6 – especially in a draft year like 2007 I would have hoped that we would have traded down a bit further and tried to expand our talent.
Stuckey.
we need a PG. After that go for Thornton, just based on talent.
at the time i might have said Acie Law.

by 






















