Blazers Vs Clippers Minutes By Position/Player

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 22, 2008 10:31 PM PDT Comment 27 comments

This was a lop-sided Blazer win with garbage time in the 4th quarter, so the minute distribution is a little less meaningful as a template for close games than it was against the Kings on Monday night, but I think we can see the distribution Nate is leaning toward for the early season. Bayless got a chance to show what he can do tonight and he played well. The backup point guard position is still being contested.

Once again either Rudy or Roy or both were always on the floor except for 31 seconds during garbage time, but they each played only 30 minutes. The 2nd unit played "intact" for only 11 minutes (this time with Bayless on the floor - Sergio did not play in this game) vs about 12 minutes in the last game).

C - Oden 29, Pryz 17, Diogu 2

PF - LMA 25, Frye 21, Outlaw 2

Nate used a 3-guard offense for 11 minutes (vs 14 minutes in the last game):

3G - Roy 11, Rudy 11, Blake 11

and a conventional SF/SG/PG offense for 37 minutes (vs 34 minutes in the last game):

SF - Batum 17, Outlaw 20

SG - Roy 16, Rudy 19, Outlaw 2

PG - Blake 19, Bayless 15, Roy 3

Note: Roy and Rudy played only 3 minutes together at the 1/2 guards (vs 6 minutes in the last game).

Total Minutes/player tonight (previous game)

LMA 25 (36)

Roy 30 (35)

Rudy 30 (33)

Oden 29 (30)

Blake 30 (27)

Pryz 17 (18)

Batum 17 (17)

Outlaw 24 (17)

Sergio 0 (13)

Frye 21 (12)

Bayless 15 (2)

Diogu 2 (0)

Total 240 (240)

3 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

Once agian

Good Job!

by ggassen85 on Oct 22, 2008 10:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 22, 2008 11:04 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

I luv these

customized names and everything

He who laughs last thinks slowest.

by prezofdeath on Oct 22, 2008 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to get the template set up so that I can whip them out for every game.

…………………… NBA.com added a couple categories for this game that weren’t in the last, so I got to spend 15 minutes more tweaking my spreadsheet… But I think I’m pretty close to gold now, as soon as KP makes the final cut.

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 22, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good work.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Oct 22, 2008 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love it

nice post

by jsmuc on Oct 22, 2008 11:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I really like these analysis of minutes and lineups posts, BF70, keep up the good work!!!

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 22, 2008 11:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I’m trying to focus on how the minutes can be distributed – particularly on how Nate fits Rudy into this team. I opined in a post a couple of weeks ago that Rudy needs an average of at least 28 minutes (I suspect he will earn even more as Nate teaches him to play NBA defense), and that it would be better to get Rudy minutes primarily by using a 3-guard offense more often than playing Roy and Rudy as 1/2 guards. I stated several reasons for that earlier so I won’t repeat them here, but that also provides some reasonable minutes at backup point guard that Bayless and Sergio can compete over. (I have hopes that Bayless can learn to be our starting point guard in 2 years with Blake his backup).

So I’m encouraged that it appears Nate wants to primarily use a 3-guard offense to solve the Rudy minutes “problem”. If we use the 3-guard offense for about 14-15 minutes a game (see the Kings game distribution) that leaves about 33-34 minutes for a top-notch veteran small forward that plays great defense, hits the open 3-pt shot, and rebounds. Outlaw isn’t that guy. Batum might eventually develop into that guy, but probably not enough in the next 2 years. Martell hasn’t shown me that he can fill that role, but he will get another chance to demonstrate what he learned last summer when he returns. If he can’t fill that role, then I hope we can use the RLEC and other assets (Sergio, Outlaw and Martell) to get a starting SF (a veteran in perhaps a 3-team deal). Hopefully we can hang on to Batum and develop him to eventually replace that veteran. The end result could be an incredible 9-man rotation as GO learns his position and Rudy develops into a stellar 6th man. That’s my vision of the road to a 2010/11 championship. (GO/Pryz, LMA/Frye, Vet SF, Roy/Rudy, Blake/Bayless with Batum getting developmental minutes and backup for injuries).

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 23, 2008 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At first glance, I projected Rudy Fernandez to get 20 minutes per game to start the season.

With Nicolas Batum struggling throughout the past few pre-season contests, though, a three-guard lineup of Fernandez, Brandon Roy, and Steve Blake might work for around 12 minutes per game during the first six minutes of the second and fourth quarters; it’d be a change-of-pace maneuver.

Yet, rather than push Fernandez’s minutes from 20 to 28 per game and have him play in crunch-time situations over Travis Outlaw, I’d prefer to rely on Brandon Roy for about 40 minutes per game until Martell Webster returns from injury. While that might put extra pressure on Roy — as well as enhance concerns of a potential injury — it gives the team a better chance at winning on a regular basis.

Despite my many aversions and objections toward Outlaw, he’s admittedly the best fit alongside Roy and Steve Blake during the last six minutes of each and every game. Not only does Outlaw allow Roy to defend his natural shooting guard position, but he also has experience in those type of situations.

by AK1984 on Oct 23, 2008 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Always having a true center manning the pivot is an underappreciated quality.

We’re soon closing out the fast-paced, run-‘n’-gun era of small ball, which is a good thing. No matter how exciting and appealing the up-tempo style is to some fans, it’s just not an efficient manner in which to win games. It’s time once again for some old-school, smashmouth basketball to reign supreme in the NBA, while the Portland Trail Blazers will lead the charge with Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla at the forefront.

by AK1984 on Oct 22, 2008 11:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It really became crystal clear to me in the playoffs this last year......

……………………………… Those games are won and lost in the paint, by true PFs and Cs playing in position, and by guards that can get to the rack and finish.

This is one reason I am so sold on Rex over Sergio… Fancy alley-oop passes make for a pretty show, but the games in crunch time are won by hitting perimeter jumpers and getting to the rack and finishing. It’s a really obvious choice between those two, although it will probably take at least half a year for that to become clear to team decision-makers. I’m still totally confident of how this thing turns out in the long run though….

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 22, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the use of Sergio vs Bayless will be very situational

Sometimes a fancy alley-oop pass will do wonders for a team, especially if it’s at home. Energy from the crowd can really help turn a game around.

Other times, we’ll need to get some FTs, slow the clock down, get some in game rest and put their guys in foul trouble.

I think we’ll see a lot of Bayless, Roy, Rudy, LMA, Oden lineups at the end of close games.

Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 22, 2008 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

During the last six minutes of every game, Steve Blake better be the point guard.

Jerryd Bayless is oftentimes a ball-hogging, shot-happy, turnover-prone playmaker who’s way too lax on defense. Indeed, Bayless isn’t a calm, methodical floor general who you’d want leading the charge in clutch situations. Blake, however, definitely fits that description of a true point guard.

by AK1984 on Oct 23, 2008 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roy is the floor general late in games

We would use Bayless to get to the line. Rudy is clutch and gets the nod over Outlaw due to better 3pt shooting, energy and FT shooting.

WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 23, 2008 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For defensive purposes, Steve Blake still easily gets the nod over Jerryd Bayless.

by AK1984 on Oct 23, 2008 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what PG in the league

is going to be contained/held in check/what have you by Blake but not by Bayless. Futhermore, I think gambling with the better offensive player is the way to go in most late game cases. We aren’t talking about putting in Rajon Rondo, or some other solid defender at the PG spot. The difference between Blake and Bayless on D isn’t going to be as pronounced as the difference on O. We need another threat to attack the rim (with Roy) rather than another spot up shooter (Bayless can hit a spot up almost as well anyway).

WWKPD?
Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 23, 2008 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jerryd Bayless may be able to hit the mid-range jumper, but ...

Steve Blake proved that he can drain it from beyond the arc at a 40% clip.

by AK1984 on Oct 23, 2008 1:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neither

Rudy and Roy are likely to be our backcourt for closing out close games.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 23, 2008 5:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Scot is absolutely correct -- for the current season.

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 23, 2008 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Steve Blake should play point guard to close out games.

by AK1984 on Oct 23, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

STOP MAKING THESE POSTS!!!

You’re making the scouting report all too easy for our enemies.

Hehe but seriously—nice post.

He who laughs last thinks slowest.

by prezofdeath on Oct 22, 2008 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We can only hope that other teams come here for their scouting reports

Although I’m not sure if that says a lot about us or not very much about those teams.

Ambassador to the Miami Heat

by Magnum on Oct 22, 2008 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just one more tomorrow night

unless Nate decides to rest the starters and then the distribution of minutes would be meaningless. Once the season starts I’m too busy focusing on the details of how the team and individuals perform to spend time charting minutes and statistics. So the job’s open if anyone else wants to track this stuff.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Oct 23, 2008 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awwww, too bad.

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 23, 2008 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

If everybody play very well, and I think it can happen, I´m not sure who will be more scared, the rest of the league or our own players.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Oct 23, 2008 12:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Practice and Play

Most of what Nate seems to be doing is pretty straight-forward, and in-line with what he and KP have also been saying. At the same time, the rash of early injuries actually prevented Nate from having the time in pre-season to get the players on the floor in the rotations he wanted. Only in these last few games has he even had that ability. Fry, Blake and Fernandez are back, and Oden is working himself into game shape. Only in these last two games have we started to see what Mac himself said he wanted to do, and then couldn’t get started on.

Having said this, my view is pretty mundane. The front court is set and will be fine. Websters loss leaves us trying to start Batum, but the last two games clearly show he’s also very much a young rookie. Outlaw, in turn, is still adjusting his combo PF/SF skills to play only at SF. I expect we’ll set Outlaw for 24 – 26 minutes a game, and that Batum/Small Ball, will consume the rest at SF. it may be that Batum’s defensive skills get him the starting nod – but that he only plays the first 4 minutes or so, each quarter, and then Mac moves on to Outlaw/Small ball.

At the guard position, Sergio’s experience gives him the edge – if you want a PG on the floor. But if its the 4th quarter, and you want the rock in Roy’s hands, then since Mac told Frye that if he wanted more minutes, he had to understand that he wants his scorers on the floor in the 4th quarter – then you’re more likely to see Roy/Bayless or Roy/Fernandez than Roy/Rodriguez or Roy/Blake. This simply recognizes that at certain points in the game – Roy takes over the offense and distributes – not Blake or Rodriquez. At which point, Mac’s going to want the other guard to defense the other point, bring the ball up, and then become an offensive threat – not a point guard. And to some degree, this will be influenced by who has the hot hand.

Bayless’s early minutes, as a result, are more likely to come in this scenerio, than in the more formal PF/SG routine on the second unit.

And, as Bayless gets 30-40 games under his belt, we may also see a Roy/Rudy/Bayless combo crop up in crunch time in combo w LMA and Oden.

In any case, Mac is finally actually able to get the players together he’s needed to get together. It’s also one reason I suspect we may has a little slower start that we’d hoped.

Mac needed that extra time for practice and preseason play, and didn’t get it. Now, he has to work it in during actual game time. And this, combined with the Webster/Outlaw/Small Ball dilemma, makes me think things could be a little sloppier for the first 4-5 games than we may like.

by Eben Calder on Oct 23, 2008 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs