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Blogger Season Preview - Portland Trail Blazers

Welcome to my blogger preview for fans of the other teams in the NBA, part of Jeff at Celtics Blog's ongoing series.  If you're a regular Blazers Edge reader, you probably could have written this for me.  Oh well, without further ado...

---------------------------------

Portland Trail Blazers

Last Year's Record: 41-41

Key Losses: Jarrett Jack, James Jones, Darius Miles, Josh McRoberts, Von Wafer, Rehabbing Greg Oden

Key Additions: Healthy Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, About 15,000 Bandwagon fans, Nicolas Batum, Ike Diogu

1.  What significant moves were made during the offseason?

In the past month, I've heard the Presidential candidates debate ad naseum whether to use a "hatchet" or a "scalpel" to reform government.  I think it's safe to say that General Manager Kevin Pritchard and Assistant GM Tom Penn are scalpel-wielding roster-reformers.  Every move they make is precise and accurate. Like watching a surgeon dissect a dead animal, it's a thing of beauty. What?

The major moves this off-season were: allowing James Jones to leave, trading Jarrett Jack, drafting Jerryd Bayless and convincing Rudy Fernandez to come to America.

Already, it's looking like Pritchard is 4 for 4: Jones is down injured again, Jack's absence cleans up Portland's busy guard rotation, Jerryd Bayless proved to be a steal with the #11 pick by immediately taking home the Vegas Summer League MVP, and Rudy Fernandez has already impregnated half of Portland's women with his mind.  

The sum total of all these moves: the roster is younger, more talented, better balanced and with an added European flair. Don't underestimate the flair. 

Aside from that, there were two other season-long stories that finally played out this summer: exit Darius Miles, enter healthy Greg Oden.   Again, Pritchard goes 2 for 2.

When we look back in 5 years, this summer will be seen as the time that Pritchard made the leap from draft-day genius to all-around wunderkind. KP is so locked in right now it's ridiculous. If he ran for mayor of Portland, he'd win with Fidel Castro like numbers. His campaign slogan: "You Already Know."

2.  What are the team's biggest strengths?

Not to go all Jay Bilas on you, but this year's Blazers' biggest strengths are depth, length, and versatilathleticism. 

Even with Martell Webster out until 2009, just reading the team's roster is enough to send Don Nelson back to the fridge for another beer (or 12): Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye... put those five together and you've got 100 yards of arms. Good luck game-planning against any combination of those five.  

And more good luck to your second team when Frye, Outlaw and, say, Rudy and Jerryd Bayless converge on your scrubs like pterodactyls.

In all of that carnage and beauty, don't overlook consummate professionals (ok, fine, "white guys") Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla, who bring their consistent brand of do-it-the-right-way ball night in and night out.  Stabilizing influences are a good thing.  At least that's what my psychiatrist tells me. Every week. Twice a week. (Actually, three times a week if you count the mandatory phone session.)

So basically our biggest strengths are everything.  Did I mention Brandon Roy?  He's an All Star. He's really good.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Ike Diogu's midnight snack cravings. 

Not really.

Injuries.  Duh. Just about every name mentioned above, which is just about every name on the roster, has missed time or been on the operating table for SOMETHING in the past 12-18 months.  Oden, Roy, Aldridge Webster, Frye, Blake.  Indeed, injuries are the Achilles Heel for this team.  

Swing and a miss.

Thanks to the team's depth this year, the Blazers should be able to withstand injuries much better than in the past. Unless Steve Blake goes down.  Then the team either turns the ball over (get it?) to Sergio Rodriguez/Jerryd Bayless or is forced to slide Brandon Roy over to the one, playing out of position. Either option is not a good one for this team's playoff chances.  Does this make Steve Blake the team's MVP?  No.  But it does make him dang important to its success and hopes for the playoffs.

Aside from the question at the 1, the biggest weakness is at the 3.  With Webster out for the calendar year, Rudy and Travis Outlaw will both get plenty minutes, plenty shots.  This should help both Rudy's acclimation process and Travis's ego. Double swell, at least for the short-term.  How this shakes out once Martell returns, however, is still an open question.  That could get awkward.

Most likely (and hopefully for Blazers fans), a trade involving Raef Lafrentz's Expiring Corpse Contract, will help clear up the questions at the 3.

(Footnote: Lack of experience is clearly another major weakness.  But it's still a season early, in my opinion, to be focusing on that.)  

4. What are the goals for this team?

Playoffs. Playoffs. Playoffs. 

We haven't done anything until we've made the

Playoffs. Playoffs. Playoffs.

We are a young team and last year we didn't even make the

Playoffs. Playoffs. Playoffs.

With our guys a year older and more experienced we expect to make the

Playoffs. Playoffs. Playoffs.

With Greg Oden added into the mix, that should be good for an extra 5 or 6 wins, so we should have no trouble sneaking in to the 

Playoffs. Playoffs. Playoffs.

Coach McMillan and Kevin Pritchard are really starting to rub off on me.  I am almost fully indoctricated. All that's left is getting 15 = 16 tattooed on my forehead. Give it about a week and a half.

5. What's the over/under on number of games Greg Oden plays?

This is the question that no one in the Portland media wants to touch with a 10 foot pole. But it needs to be asked. Personally I'd set the line at 60.5.  

If Greg makes it through 3/4 of the season, this team should be a lock for the playoffs, even in the tough Western Conference.  On the other hand, if he's down for long stretches, the team's offense will look entirely different.  What can I say?  For some reason, Joel Przybilla simply doesn't rim rock or draw double teams like big GO.  

With the exception of his AAU days, Greg has never played 60 games in such a short period of time.  He still appears out of shape in preseason games.  His offensive shot is rusty.  He's a question mark.  

But he's a 7 foot question mark that can bam it on your face. He's a question mark the team is thrilled to finally have.  He's a question mark that Blazers fans can't wait to see turn into the answer to their playoff dreams. 

Predicted Record:

49-33, first round of the playoffs.  

Hopefully this doesn't turn out to be a jinx. I'm not sure how jinxes work, but hopefully this isn't one of them.  I'm crossing my fingers (or double-crossing? hmm...)

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

2 recs  |  Comment 44 comments

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"Rudy Fernandez has already impregnated half of Portland's women with his mind."

Just half? And I wouldn’t be surprised if they did a remake/sequel to the movie Junior starring a trail blazer fan.

"It was halfway through the fourth quarter of an exhibition game, a 30 point blowout, and I absolutely did not want it to end. Time: move slower so this moment stretches.

Dunk Parade.

Forever."

-Ben

"...our second unit is probably going to be a little better than your second unit…and by "probably going to be a little better than" I mean "is going to crush like a dump truck running over an empty beer can""

"YOU MOVE NOW! GREG DUNK BIG!"

-Dave

by Magnum on Oct 18, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Dave

have you seen the movie Junior?

"It was halfway through the fourth quarter of an exhibition game, a 30 point blowout, and I absolutely did not want it to end. Time: move slower so this moment stretches.

Dunk Parade.

Forever."

-Ben

"...our second unit is probably going to be a little better than your second unit…and by "probably going to be a little better than" I mean "is going to crush like a dump truck running over an empty beer can""

"YOU MOVE NOW! GREG DUNK BIG!"

-Dave

by Magnum on Oct 18, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't

pls explain.

It's time to retire Terry Porter's jersey. Please!

by jorga on Oct 18, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junior_(film)

"It was halfway through the fourth quarter of an exhibition game, a 30 point blowout, and I absolutely did not want it to end. Time: move slower so this moment stretches.

Dunk Parade.

Forever."

-Ben

"...our second unit is probably going to be a little better than your second unit…and by "probably going to be a little better than" I mean "is going to crush like a dump truck running over an empty beer can""

"YOU MOVE NOW! GREG DUNK BIG!"

-Dave

by Magnum on Oct 18, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Geeez Dave, gettin' all cavalier on us

People jumping the fence, “just women?” comments….yowzers!

He who laughs last thinks slowest.

by prezofdeath on Oct 18, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hold up.
With Webster out for the season,

When did this prognosis update? I thought he was out for like 2 months. That sucks.

by postup on Oct 18, 2008 3:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks man

fixed that….

meant to read out for the calendar year… like i wrote earlier.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing Ben...
And more good luck to your second team when Frye, Outlaw and, say, Rudy and Jerryd Bayless converge on your scrubs like pterodactyls.

I am pretty sure that Sergio has won that 2nd unit pg spot. In fact, one of the main reasons they don’t want to move Rudy to the 1st unit is because he has such great chemistry with Sergio and that chemistry is flowing through the entire unit. According to Quick, Bayless is the 11th or 12th guy right now.

Just sayin….

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Oct 18, 2008 3:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i didn’t say bayless beat out sergio. only that he could be thrown into a pterodactyl unit with those guys.

i’ve written that sergio has beaten out bayless handily so far as well. for now.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides...

we all know that Bayless will converge like a TRex!

(where’s that picture when you need it…)

"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Oct 18, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"It's not a joke -- it's not a game." — B-Rex

by timbo on Oct 18, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

with webster out and batum's rising stock

bayless is looking at slot 11 right now.

i think he has shown more than ike.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

true that

We both suffer from the same disease… Mancrushitous, we just have different symptoms….

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Oct 18, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good work, Ben.

Quick observation… can you call it “key” losses and “key” additions if you list everyone who departed and arrived? More specifically, if your list goes as far as to include Von Wafer… shouldn’t it just be losses?

Also… you’re SOOOO close about the wins-and-losses. It’ll be a solid 50-32.

Otherwise, well done.

"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Oct 18, 2008 4:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

that was their format.

call me quirky but i considered every move that KP made important because they were all so closely intertwined.

for instance, at the time i thought bringing JJ33 back would be a really good idea. as things played out, KP’s alternative plan turned out to be pretty good.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really, only the first round of the playoffs?

Isn’t the real question: Will the Blazers win one championship this year, or two?

Oh, wait, sorry. Will try to be realistic.

by Kaboomm on Oct 18, 2008 5:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Considering that Batum played with the first unit all week.

I am a little surprised at the lack of mention he got here.

by everett on Oct 18, 2008 5:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Boom Boom's our secret weapon

ssshh

"You're really making me feel good about myself, little man," says Oden as he starts dancing after scoring a goal. "You better come harder than that."

by BlueBooYay on Oct 18, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And we don't know

when Ben actually answered those questions. BlueBooYay’s calling him “Boom-Boom” is spot on because he really has exploded (in a good way).

It's time to retire Terry Porter's jersey. Please!

by jorga on Oct 18, 2008 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As opposed to Derrick Coleman.

Who exploded in a Bad Way.

"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless

by QualityPie on Oct 18, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

jury is still way, way out on batum.

but he probably deserved more than a name-check.

my gut tells me in february we will look back and laugh about how excited we got about him. but i am quite excited about him right now.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We shouldn't tell other teams too early about him anyway...

Secret weapon, you know.

Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)

by Norsktroll on Oct 19, 2008 1:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, Ben - you got a playoff position to go with that record?

I’m not sure what seed 49 wins gets in the West this year, myself.

"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless

by QualityPie on Oct 18, 2008 9:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

7 or more likely 8.

sorry to be so conventional.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, no - I like conventional.

And it appropriately tempers your “jinx” disclaimer.
You basically put us where the Nougats were last year, or Pyrite State the year before that,
or the Paper Clips the year before that.
It’s not an overly optimistic forecast at all.

And it got me thinking about the middle of the pack in the West; that range seems to be getting less competitive.
Compare that to a lot of mention about the middle of the Eastern conference being VERY tough this year.
Makes it easier for a team like us to crank out 49 wins without entering the realm of the top teams.

"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless

by QualityPie on Oct 18, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

celtics making fun of our bandwagon fans……what a laugh.

Bring back headbands!

by Sabonis4Ever on Oct 18, 2008 10:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

after reading it

wtf Ben you understand Steve’s importance too? we should hang out.

Bring back headbands!

by Sabonis4Ever on Oct 18, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Average Backup PG = Our Starting PG... when does this become a good thing?

Every team needs an average backup PG in their starting lineup. The sooner Bayless and S-Rod start taking over minutes for Blake the better a team we’ll be in the long run.

by as11osu on Oct 18, 2008 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it won’t happen this year.

and blake is a better than average backup point guard.

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 18, 2008 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Nougats sure miss him right about now.

He gave them better point play in 06-07 than they got last season, or WILL get this year.
So if he’s the best STARTING point guard that team had in the last half-dozen years,
how does that equate to “average backup” quality?

It DON’T, that’s how.

"Mister Oden is a very, very big human being." - Jerryd Bayless

by QualityPie on Oct 18, 2008 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not that its an end all

but Hollinger predicts that Blake will be the 48th ranked point guard in the league (middle of the road backup), essentially where he was last year. I understand everyone here relishes that consistent play, but when its consistently below average, what kind of value is that? If we’re going to be playing for Championships here in the coming years, with as much talent as we have elsewhere, to settle on a Steve Blake running your team just isn’t good enough. And most likely, a piece, or pieces to that position sit on the bench. Just as we’re now questioning the roles of Martell and Travis on this teams future, we have to realize what we don’t have at the point guard spot. Steve Blake is an okay backup point guard on his good days, and we don’t have to settle… we have pieces to make things happen, and we also have good, potentially starting quality point guards sitting on our bench.

by as11osu on Oct 18, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

48th?

48th!

Every starting PG is better, plus some backups? What about Beno Udrih, Anthony Carter, Mike Conley, Luke Ridnour, whoever is starting in Miami or OKC and Antonio Daniels?

"It was halfway through the fourth quarter of an exhibition game, a 30 point blowout, and I absolutely did not want it to end. Time: move slower so this moment stretches.

Dunk Parade.

Forever."

-Ben

"...our second unit is probably going to be a little better than your second unit…and by "probably going to be a little better than" I mean "is going to crush like a dump truck running over an empty beer can""

"YOU MOVE NOW! GREG DUNK BIG!"

-Dave

by Magnum on Oct 19, 2008 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

there’s a big difference between saying “we need an upgrade at PG” (which i agree with) and saying “blake is an average backup in the nba” (which is flat wrong).

honor terry porter

by Ben. on Oct 19, 2008 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hollinger should look at his numbers again

Last season, Blake was (among all players) 18th in the league in assists (413, yes that’s less than half as many as Paul or Nash but on par with Parker or Rondo), 23rd in assists per game (5.1) and 7th (3.65) in assists per turnover. He also is 21st in the league in 3P% (.406), which e.g. is better than Paul. True, that’s all not superstar-like and he is not a scorer or amazing stealer/overall defender, but that’s way better than “average” and just what we need on the first unit.

Besides, Roy is taking away from some of his numbers, since he is even ahead (430, 5.8) or very close behind (3.16) Blake in all these categories. That might be the best passing duo in the NBA.

Odenied: If you're given lemmings—make lemming-ade (Bow4Meow)

by Norsktroll on Oct 19, 2008 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True, that’s all not superstar-like and he is not a scorer or amazing stealer/overall defender, but that’s way better than "average" and just what we need on the first unit.

He is certainly the best that we have on the first unit but either the hypothetical, developed, and consistent Bayless or Rodriguez of the future and many guards in the league now would be more of what we need in the first unit. The Blazers need someone starting at the one who can apply full court pressure, get out on fast breaks when a board is secured and be able to run or complete it, be trusted with the ball in the clutch (when the defense will not let Roy play point), and knock down open long range shots. Blake is probably better than average on the last two, but on mediocre on the second and nearly a liability on the first. Blake needs to increase his defense and I doubt he could ever have the athletic advantages on defense that Bayless and Rodriguez have. I think Blake’s ideal team is one where the shooting guard is faster and a bit smaller (Dixon and AI).

by idoltime on Oct 19, 2008 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blake can run a fastbreak

when you’ve got a team that can fastbreak. We didn’t last year. He isn’t a one-man fastbreak (Jerryd can do that, but Blake can’t), but if you have someone rebounding and guys breaking, Blake can make good decisions on the break. That’s why Denver wanted him back — they wouldn’t have if he wasn’t a good fastbreak PG.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 19, 2008 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've watched Blake play since he was at Maryland

and he is a hard-nosed, smart, focused player who brings something untangible which are the killer instincts of a winner — If Randolph makes this squad (which he will by the way) he and Blake will have to stay away from each other when Duke and Maryland face off —

by LetsBlaze on Oct 19, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read the other two sites previews

Congrats, Ben, you absolutely tooled the other Blazer previews with your humor and insight. Way to Blog!

Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.

Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.

by Clevelander among roses on Oct 19, 2008 11:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice avatar Car

by cic

"You're really making me feel good about myself, little man," says Oden as he starts dancing after scoring a goal. "You better come harder than that."

by BlueBooYay on Oct 19, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

very funny

energetic, impassioned writing. Nicely done Ben.

by 50backflips on Oct 19, 2008 11:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious!

Seriously. Injuries are this team’s achilles heel!

by jayzien on Oct 19, 2008 1:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bandwagon?

Bandwagon? I prefer to look at myself as a new first year Blazer fan. No jumping on and off the bandwagon for me.

by CanadianBlazerfan on Oct 20, 2008 2:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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