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The Portland Seven...

snipet from...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TradeTalk-081015

The Portland Seven

The Blazers head into the next summer with the potential to have major cap space, with seven players hitting the free-agent market. But there's a catch.

 

First, Darius Miles, with Boston this preseason, could mess up Portland's plan. If he plays in 10 games this season, his $9 million salary goes right back on the Blazers' books.

Second, they are going to have to make some difficult choices about a number of their young players. Martell Webster, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Sergio Rodriguez and Travis Outlaw can all become free agents, along with veterans Steve Blake and Raef LaFrentz.

 

 

Because of NBA collective bargaining rules, each player is assigned a "cap hold" that serves as a salary placeholder for the summer. Because Webster, Frye and Diogu were all drafted in the lottery, their cap holds are very high -- likely higher than their actual salaries will be in their new contracts. The only way for Portland to get rid of those cap hold numbers is to sign those players to contracts during the free agent period or to not make qualifying offers to them.

 

 

If Portland chooses to sign them, not only will those players eat into the cap space, but the team, while working out the new contracts, will lose precious time during the early days of July's free-agent frenzy. If the Blazers choose not to make qualifying offers, those players become unrestricted free agents.

So I expect GM Kevin Pritchard to be very proactive (as always) this winter and to move at least a couple of those young players.

 

 

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

 

Sounds like there will be something happening from the desk of Kevin Pritchard before too long into the season.  How much will injuries play a role in this?  Who is really expendable?  How important is keeping our depth to the long-term and short-term success?

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well ok

No offense intended, Portland Dynasty, but this is the 3rd time this link has been posted. I know this because I posted it the first time in the fanshots under the title Trade Rumors and soon after saw someone else post a separate fanshot with roughly the same title as yours.

On topic….
The article seems to hint that KP will get a trade done well before the deadline. I don’t know….that’s just the vibe I get.

"It was halfway through the fourth quarter of an exhibition game, a 30 point blowout, and I absolutely did not want it to end. Time: move slower so this moment stretches.

Dunk Parade.

Forever."

-Ben

"...our second unit is probably going to be a little better than your second unit…and by "probably going to be a little better than" I mean "is going to crush like a dump truck running over an empty beer can""

"YOU MOVE NOW! GREG DUNK BIG!"

-Dave

by Magnum on Oct 17, 2008 10:53 PM PDT   0 recs

A lot of it is just wait and see

Depends on injuries, of course, but also on culture and win-loss record and the chance of finding that one last piece that pushes us over the top into Championship Land.

And the winner is … Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Remember him—the great Democratic president who saved capitalism from the capitalists by reining in their exorbitant greed? Forget the Reagan Revolution heralding a new era of small government, which turned out to be nothing more than a fig leaf for legalized corporate crime. The hero of the hour is FDR, as the essential wisdom of his New Deal is now embraced by most Republicans as well as Democrats.

by fisheyes on Oct 17, 2008 11:24 PM PDT   0 recs

The whole salary cap situation has also long been well covered here including by Dave on the main page

KP made it clear that his plan did not require Darius Miles to come off the cap. But he does not have to do anything if he likes what he has. He can simply re-sign those who want to be here.

Of this we can agree – KP is far ahead of us (or Chad Ford) or the rest of the league. So in KP I trust.

when you’ve been in a dry land even a little dew looks inviting —Dave
"When you want to win a game, you have to teach. When you lose a game, you have to learn." - Tom Landry

by lee3022 on Oct 18, 2008 1:41 AM PDT   0 recs

Amen

We know that LaFrentz and Diogu are likely gone, and that Blake and Frye are likely to be kept. And we know that if Batum demonstrates he can be the second team forward, then Martel or Outlaw might be moved. As far as Sergio, to some degree, this will depend on whether Bayless, by the end of the season, can move ahead of him on the depth chart, or at least match him.

This isn’t really going to be all that difficult to resolve. Blake and Frye will play for reasonable salaries and want to stay. And both are solid vets that we wouldn’t likely find any reasonable substitutes for at the same value. The rest will work itself out.

by Eben Calder on Oct 18, 2008 7:08 AM PDT   0 recs

I'll be upset if martell goes, but I understand what a good showing of webster could get us, paired with a decent showing of outlaw, tagged along with a rlec, and maybe a throwin of a savy vet center.....

what could be had with these peices…. ahhhh, the speculation of the speculation, GOD I LOVE BEING A FAN!!!!!

sorry eben, kinda lost my thoughts there, …nevermind.

The faith (and I'm a guy) perverts. :)

by faith on Oct 18, 2008 8:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I would agree

that Raef & Ike are outtahere.

I really would not be suprised to see either Martel or (more likley) Travis to be moved soon after game 41 this year when Raef becomes exceptionally valuable to some other team (as insurance pays most of his tab the rest of this year). Raef and one of our SF’s would be the logical move if Batum looks like the real deal by midseason.

The really interesting subject is your comment is…..

Blake and Frye will play for reasonable salaries and want to stay. And both are solid vets that we wouldn’t likely find any reasonable substitutes for at the same value

While I can see Steve Blake having solid reasons to stay here for less money. Would Channing really be willing to take a pass a once in a lifetime long term contract? Like the rest of the team, he will probably look a little bit better than he really is with G.O. patroling the paint. Some GM is going to take a chance on the big guy and offer him some big money that Portland would certainly not be willing/able to bring.

I believe KP is nearly done with building the teams main framework via the draft. In the next few years hIs big challenge will be finding players who will fit and are willing to choose winning over overpriced contracts. To bring a potential dynasty to Portland, I believe Kevin will have be nearly just as good at convincing players to choose winning over bigger money. It has been done elswhere, Kevin, things are shaping up to look like you will be next in line to have a crack at it. If you can finish the details by adding/keeping these role players that every championship team needs you will be one step closer to potentially becoming the next legendary GM.

The Oden Era, Day 477

by Heymoe on Oct 18, 2008 8:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's a thought for you

I think the emergence of Batum may make Martell’s departure more likely than Travis’.

Martell and Batum may provide a similar skill set in the long run, while Travis is completely different. If you want a different look in your second unit, Travis may be a better fit. So if Batum really does show he’s ready to step in (I’m still dubious), it may mean Martell becomes a very valuable trade asset.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 18, 2008 9:32 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We'll know by February

That’s the month of the trading deadline, and when RLEC’s contract status starts getting juicy. By then Webster will have returned, and Nate/KP will have seen “who best fits with Oden” and how the 1st and 2nd units have meshed.

It may be obvious by then “who” needs to go, or they may have a “tough” decision to make. I think the only thing that most of us agree on at this point is that the odds of a deal being made that includes either Webster or Outlaw coupled with RLEC is pretty high.

Injuries could also play a part in this , like they have already. If Blake were to go down for a long stretch I’d expect KP would go into full-court -press mode to find a veteran PG to replace Steve. You never want to be dealing from a position of weakess, but the team’s goal to make the playoffs may override this concern.( Especially if KP can find a team with a veteran PG who can’t get off the bench due to a youth movement or a number’s crunch…)

by two4larue on Oct 18, 2008 11:13 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree with your thought, now one back for you.

Seriously OT but…..

Eban Calder is a very, very logical contributor. Always pointing toward a correct conclusion. After reading the first few posts it hit me, so I wrote back asking if (he) was a statistician or in the actuarial field by trade as to me the delivery is so, well it always seems have a mathematical rythm to it. Although you would not know it in here, I have a degree in Mathematics and I know one when I read one. I never got a reply back on my inquiry.

I picture Mr. Spock sitting in front of a computer when I read (his?) comments.

So what I am trying to say is that if I was KP writing on this site, this would be the type of cloak from which I would spin my thoughts out from and out there.

Just saying my spider senses always tingle that way when I read somethng from Eban.

The Oden Era, Day 477

by Heymoe on Oct 18, 2008 12:34 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

I think you just let the cat out of the bag...

He joined May 25… his only Fan Post was on May 31, soliciting the advice of the Blazer Nation on SFs in the draft. His comments are spot on every single time, and always see things through the eyes of the team or Coach Mac.

Check out his contribution on the Celtic’s blog:
http://www.greenbandwagon.com/2008/8/22/599226/boston-celtics-sign-darius

Somebody should do a Fan Post with a Poll asking if Eben Calder = KP.

I kind of wish this wasn’t brought up, since it would have been fun to continue reading his posts. Should we ask Dave to delete Heymore’s comment so that fun can continue?

I hope we didn’t screw things up here.

by Bust a Bucket on Oct 18, 2008 1:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No problem wth me.

Just been on my mind for awhile. I actually had this scroll across one of my dreams last night.

The Oden Era, Day 477

by Heymoe on Oct 18, 2008 1:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought of EC, too

But there’s no way KP writes, “It’s in my interests that Darius blows his knee out and never plays again.” No way.

Even if that is what he thinks, and he’s writing anonymously, there’s always the chance of him being identified.

Can you imagine the impact if KP was identified as having written that? Mega fines, etc. KP isn’t stupid. Eban isn’t, either. If EC is just a guy, I disagree with that thought, but it wasn’t stupid. But if EC is KP, it was mega-stupid to write that, and KP isn’t mega-stupid.

EC is not KP.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 19, 2008 12:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Makes sense.

Thanks for putting this suspicious thought to bed.

Glad I sent this your way to analyze.

The Oden Era, Day 478

by Heymoe on Oct 19, 2008 7:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I actually think

it’s Heymoe. KP would be smart enough to try to pin it on other people.

I understand why you thought it was EC. His comments show he is knowledgable.

I doubt KP would post as much as EC does, either. One more nail in the coffin.

I have had a suspicion or two, but I don’t really want to go public and chase him away if I get it right. Nor do I want to inflate someone’s ego too much if I get it wrong. And there’s no way we could really know for sure unless he was dumb enough to post stuff that a normal fan couldn’t know, and he won’t do that.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 19, 2008 9:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think I'm too stupid

to follow what you just said. Too much misdirection, or else I’m too misdirected.

Who knows?

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 20, 2008 4:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

doesn't that make it an even stronger case?

how could some Joe Six-Pack fan have it be “in my interests that Darius blows his knee out” ??

If it’s in anyone’s interest at all, KP would top the list. Plus, he’ll never get caught, so he’s not worried about saying that. This is an anonymous blog… heck, Paul Allen could have written that and it won’t mean anything because he won’t be found out, and even if he was found out, it’s not like he was writing in his official capacity with the Blazers. People would make fun of him for sure, and it would temporarily ding his reputation, but nothing big would ever come out of it.

by Bust a Bucket on Oct 19, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Paul Allen?

Yeah, that I could believe. Somebody that rich really wouldn’t care if he got found out.

So you think EC is KP? I think EC says too much, gives a little too much analysis. I think KP would be holding his cards closer to his chest on various players. But who knows?

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 20, 2008 4:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You think dave would violate a grand jury thing a ma jig to keep kp's bedge identity safe?

he is a man of religion and all….

can dave lie for the cause and be good to go with the man?

The faith (and I'm a guy) perverts. :)

by faith on Oct 20, 2008 6:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dave doesn't know

KP wouldn’t tell him in case Dave inadvertently gave it away.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 20, 2008 3:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

and Dave doesn't neccessarily know

KP could be registered under assumed names and email addresses

by Bust a Bucket on Oct 20, 2008 3:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Four of seven

Congratulations on a successful trade.
Due to Portland and Houston being over the cap, the 25% trade rule is invoked. Portland and Houston had to be no more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Trade ID
Trade ID #4784371
Every trade made by fans is allocated a unique Trade ID which you can share with friends and fellow basketball fans to allow them to see your trade scenario.

Portland Trade Breakdown
Change in Team Outlook: -9.6 ppg, -2.3 rpg, and +0.3 apg.
Incoming Players
  Shane Battier
6-8 SF from Duke
9.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.9 apg in 36.3 minutes
Outgoing Players
  Ike Diogu
6-8 PF from Arizona State
5.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.3 apg in 10.2 minutes
  Travis Outlaw
6-9 SF from Starkville (HS)
13.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg in 26.7 minutes
 Houston Trade Breakdown
Change in Team Outlook: +9.6 ppg, +2.3 rpg, and -0.3 apg.
Incoming Players
  Ike Diogu
6-8 PF from Arizona State
5.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.3 apg in 10.2 minutes
  Travis Outlaw
6-9 SF from Starkville (HS)
13.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg in 26.7 minutes
Outgoing Players
  Shane Battier
6-8 SF from Duke
9.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.9 apg in 36.3 minutes
 Keep Channing and Webster and trade outlaw and Ike for S,Battier. Also resign Blake and Sergio to med level ext. And let Raef walk to save cap space if we could sign Channing and Webster to about 6 or 7 each and sergio and Blake to med Level. We could be set for the next four years with our role players.

by billyjoejack on Oct 18, 2008 9:17 AM PDT   0 recs

by jove I think you hit it

Your scenario is quite plausible. I might want to consider trading Martell instead of Trout, though, because (as a commenter noted above) Batum’s skill set is more similar to Martell’s and Trout is less replaceable.

And the winner is … Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Remember him—the great Democratic president who saved capitalism from the capitalists by reining in their exorbitant greed? Forget the Reagan Revolution heralding a new era of small government, which turned out to be nothing more than a fig leaf for legalized corporate crime. The hero of the hour is FDR, as the essential wisdom of his New Deal is now embraced by most Republicans as well as Democrats.

by fisheyes on Oct 18, 2008 10:16 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I used to like Shane Battier

but if I read one more trade suggestion about bringing him to the Blazers I will loathe the very sound of his name.

"Personally, I'd rather give an elephant a prostate exam on Chili Day." --Dave on rooting for the Lakers or Celtics

by MiledAnimal on Oct 18, 2008 10:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see why Houston would make that deal

Their “window” to win is now, and Battier fits into their immediate plans better than Trout/Diogu would

(Now, if things were to go “south” with the Rockets in the first half of the season and their GM was looking to “blow up his roster and start over” then, maybe…)

But Battier will be too old when Portland’s “window of dominance” is wide open, and Batum looks like he’ll be ready to fill the Dukie’s hypothetical role with the Blazers (defensive lockdown SF) for a much longer period of time. The only “advantage” Nate would gain short-term is Shane’s veteran experience.

But I expect KP to get more of a “return” for Travis than Battier, if/when the time comes to make a deal. (Yes, Pritchard has raised my expectations that high…)

by two4larue on Oct 18, 2008 11:01 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wait and see.

I’m of the wait and see attitude. This is potential cap space. Might or might not have it. Too early to tell. And if we do have the space I hope good use is made of it. But I’m of the wait and see attitude first.

by CanadianBlazerfan on Oct 18, 2008 3:25 PM PDT   0 recs

Thoughts

My one regret was that one comment on Darius. I was a little irritated that day because some seemed to be questioning what I thought was a difficult, but necessary decision by the Blazers. And Darius, as he sometimes does, was pointing one finger at the Blazers – while ignoring the proverbial 4 fingers pointing back at himself. I tend to think that we don’t focus enough on those words “if he can play”. This has been the debate with Darius for five years. He’s missed two full season, two 1/2 seasons, and a quarter of another. Each time we’ve asked that question – year in and year out – the answer has always come back to us that Darius cannot seem to put even one good season together. And that has to be very wearing for the management of any team. We can’t win championships without reliable, everyday players. Ultimately, teams have to set aside the “talent” debate, and look at that issue. Portland had to draft to offset that issue, train them up, and play them. In the end, Darius was replaced long before he came back. The only space left for him in Portland was on the third team – let’s face it. And typically, teams like to draft a player like a Batum and develop them, knowing that they can provide minutes and injury protection, and perhaps more downstream. Darius, given his injury history, could not even be relied upon to do that.

As far as my comments on keeping Frye, much of that simply comes from Frye himself. He writes about and blogs about his desire to stay here, and to be a contributor. And, after watching Ike, Frye seems to fit the Blazers better than Ike. Further, he can – in a pinch – fill in at center – which Ike can’t do. And you’ll always be willing to pay a little more for a player than can do double duty – than one who can’t.

by Eben Calder on Oct 19, 2008 9:15 AM PDT   0 recs

Yep

We all make comments we regret.

I agree on Frye, too. I will not be surprised to see him stay for a decent contract, less than he could make on some other teams, but close enough to full market value that it won’t matter that much. The rings will make up the difference to him.

I suspect it will only be for three years, and if he really shines, he’ll get rich in three years’ time. Martell may be the same — a decent but not great extension, but for only three years, and then he can really cash in elsewhere if he wants.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Oct 19, 2008 9:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in orlando, because they need a PF to move Rashard back to SF and he could really give Dwight some breathing room… would love to see him back though if it works out.

by contemnor on Oct 19, 2008 10:54 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

In KP we trust

Amen.

When is Mr. Cap going to start blogging? I love this stuff.

by Bust a Bucket on Oct 19, 2008 1:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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