Western Conference Preview-Southwest Division

Western Conference Preview will culmintate with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This team may not be very good this year, but they will be lightning fast and be amusing to watch.  Their best player, Rudy Gay, has so far, been a better NBA player than college player, and last year became a premier scorer.  He is also the leader of the team, whether anyone is willing to admit it or not.  Gay usually lined up at SG in 2007-08 but this year he will move to the 3 to make room for OJ Mayo.  Mayo is a bit hard to figure out.  He was a point guard in high school, essentially a shooting guard in college and is a bit on an unknown in the NBA.  I figure he will play a kind of Brandon Roy type hybrid guard, but with more scoring and less creating. In the long run he will need to do more of the dirty work for him and Gay to be successful, but for now, he just needs to get his feet wet.

Getting these two guys the ball is Michael Conley, who had too many injuries last year to say if he will be good or not.  I think he will be alright.  It is amazing how small he looks on the court, but he is quick and fast with good handles.  Even his outside shot has improved since college.    He reminds me of Kenny Anderson with his left hand and speed, but again the lack of height ends the comparisons.  He will need to be a distributor and opportunistic scorer who will literally run the offense up the floor.

Marc Gasol and Hakim Warrick round out the starters, and at this point, they are reserves forced into starting roles.  Gasol could be good, but he would be better suited as the second option in the post and with Warrick down there, this isn’t going to happen.  I like Warrick, except for blocking former Demo Michael Lee in the championship game, but he is an energy guy who is 6’8” and skinny, not who a team wants as the starting power forward. But again, Warrick suits the running style of this team and will get some easy baskets in transition.

The Grizzlies are definitely a team that should fare better in the future, but for now are stuck in the NBA’s toughest division just trying to find their way.

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: 42-38 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Josh Howard, despite is unsavory behavior off the court, is a stud.  He plays stingy defense and can score in a variety ways including a pretty decent shot from behind the arc.  I don’t think his antics are much of a problem. Are they stupid? Yes.  Are they offensive?  For some people, apparently they are.

One guy that you never hear about anymore is The Jet 2.0, Jason Terry.  Three years ago, Terry was the point guard who led this team. Terry was the difference maker in the playoffs, and in a way, with Dirk Nowitzki, was the heart of the team.  Now, with the ball almost exclusively in Kidd’s hands, Terry doesn’t get as much of a chance as part of the offense.  He is dangerously quick with the ball, hence his nickname, and can also shoot from the outside.  His distribution skills, while not on Kidd’s level, are pretty good.  He just needs the ball in his hands more.  In a lot of systems he would be the perfect 6th man, but Dallas is stuck with Jerry Stackhouse.

Stackhouse will the first guy off of the bench again after he struggled the first part of last year (29% Field Goal in first month, ew) and finishing with his career low scoring average (10.7 ppg).  He didn’t fair much better in the playoffs, averaging 6.2 ppg on 32% shooting.  Not exactly the numbers you are looking for from a sixth man.  Neither efficient, nor a scorer, Stack needs to get back to his old ways.  There will be nothing preventing him from jacking it up again, so let’s just hope it hits the bottom of the net (after going through the cylinder first, or course).

Power forward is the deepest and most dangerous position for the Mavs.  Nowitzki is established, is a former MVP and is in his prime.  His playmaking is really the last improvement he needs to make offensively; otherwise he is a nightmare to defend.  Defensively he could use some work, but it is too late in the game to make any significant improvements, he will have to rely on the coach to provide easy assignments on D so that he can be effective on O.  Coach Carlisle’s calling card happens to be defense so that should help Nowitzki.  Backing him up is Brandon Bass, who last year, was added to the list of “beastly undersized backup power forwards that have found a niche and stuck in the NBA.”  He joins Jason Maxiell of Detroit, Carl Landry of Houston and others as a energy guy off the bench who just overpowers opponents with strength and energy to get the ball and put in the peach basket.  Bass’ strength has rivaled old (age, not era) Shaq’s in the last few years as they have traded blows in the post.  Bass is also very quick and uses the two attributes to get easy buckets. Desagana Diop or Erick Dampier is really a crap shoot.  They both take up space and aren’t asked to do anything besides play solid defense, which they both do.  They allow Nowitzki to guard the lesser front court player and hopefully won’t need double team help on their man. I think 6 or 7 rebounds apiece is really all you need from these two.

The Dallas Mavericks are another team, like the Suns, whose window is closing. They are getting older, specifically their point guard.  Flat out, Jason Kidd did not improve the Mavericks last year in the midseason trade.  You can argue that there wasn’t significant time to jell, but I don’t think the Mavs are built to make a championship run.  Jason Kidd is still a good player and will get his assists but he lost most of his quickness and ability to stay in front of quick point guards.  Not that Chris Paul doesn’t burn everyone, but he absolutely made Kidd look foolish in the playoffs last year.  Honestly, Devin Harris fit this team better, and now all the pressure is on Kidd to get the Mavs over the hump before he retires or just plain doesn’t have it.

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: 52-30 5th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

All I hear about the Spurs is how old they are.  The problem is, the positions in which the players are old don’t need to be young.  They are skill positions, and that is how the Spurs play, very skilled.

Tony Parker is young at 26, and plays the position (PG) most likely needed to be young.  His speed is incredible, combine that with his handle and staying in front of him defensively is a problem for defenders.  His mid-range jumper is a splash and his three point shot is even respectable compared to where it once was, nonexistent. His distributing is good, but the offense isn’t run through him, so he doesn’t rack up a lot of assists, and his defense is good enough that guys aren’t freely driving the lane.  His backup is Roger Mason, who was sort of an unsung hero in Washington last year when Arenas went down.  He should be a good option off of the bench and is definitely an upgrade over 2nd all-time assists leader at Kansas (the Jefferson Demos’ own Aaron Miles is 1st) Jacque Vaughn.

At the 3, Bruce Bowen is back once again.  At age 37, he is classifiably old for the NBA.  Look closer though and you see that his declining athletic ability isn’t adversely affecting his defense.  His lateral movement is stellar, he doesn’t need to leave his feet to jump to defend (one of the most overlooked defensive techniques) and offensively he is purely, and literally a spot up shooter.  He isn’t in there to score; he averaged 6 ppg last year, but can still spread the floor with a three pointer from the corner.  Bowen can play his 30 ppg guarding the other teams best player using dirty tricks and know that backing him up is another player similar to him in Ime Udoka.  The Spurs have the lockdown defenders locked up.

Manu Ginobli isn’t the starter, but he is definitely the first option at the 2.  He is 31 years old, but seems to be banged up a lot, including this year's Olympics.  He plays a Dwayne Wade style of throwing himself all over the court, he really is quite good.  Bringing him off of the bench doesn’t hinder him in anyway, either.  In fact, it allows him to come in and dictate the game against lesser opponents (the other team’s bench).  He is also extremely clutch because he can hurt you in so many ways, he can drive like Wade, but he can shoot it from deep too.  Not fun to guard.  Starting in front of him is Michael Finely, who is getting up there in years, and he is one Spur that the aging process is more apparent.  He is still solid though, despite his lack of high flying and can hit the three enough that the floor is spread for their mainstay, Tim Duncan.

Duncan and Fabricio Oberto create the front line, and Duncan still remains the best Power Forward in the league, especially during the playoffs.  When watching Duncan the last few years it doesn’t seem that he is working hard, rather, the game just comes to him.  He doesn’t initiate the offense, but, usually Duncan facilitatesit out of the high post.  He can hit 15-18 foot jumpers with ease, is strong inside and is a great passer.  Foul trouble is the best defense against him.  Kurt Thomas will be the back up to both of these guys, and yes, I am willing to admit that he is old, at age 36.  But again, he plays simply, not trying to do anything out of his means, which is all the Spurs need him to do.

The Spurs are old, yes, but their age isn’t indicative of the way they play, and that is why they will continue to be a contender for this year and beyond.

Houston Rockets

Prediction: 54-28 4th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Bill Simmons wrote an article about 8 years ago called Ewing Theory 101 that his friend came up with in the mid 90’s.  The theory states that, “Patrick Ewing's teams (both at Georgetown and with New York) inexplicably played better when Ewing was either injured or missing extended stretches because of foul trouble.”  Houston has a little bit of the same thing going on here.

Yao Ming, the Rockets’ center, got hurt when the team was 36-20, a very good record. It seemed the Rockets were going to struggle.  Instead they continued their winning ways all the way to 22 in a row.  Their style changed, their swagger changed.  Tracy McGrady was having fun, Rafer Alston was revitalized and the whole offense played into Coach Rick Adelman’s offensive scheme. The ball was moving faster up the court, and the cuts and court space began to open up which countered the production lost from Yao’s injury.  Now, if you ask anybody if they would rather have Yao, or not have Yao, then 100% would say they would take Yao.  It becomes a trade off in production and how it is attained. Pundits like to say that the lack of Yao hurt the Rockets in the first round off the postseason, and it may have, but the biggest problem for the Rockets was the loss of Rafer Alston in the first two games.  He came back in game 3 and they won.  Then they won game 5 when Alston had another good game and eventually lost in 6 games.  Alston may have meant more to his team than Yao in that juncture of the season, but the Rockets, and specifically Rick Adelman needs to get the best out of each player, that is the job of the coach.  The point is, the Rockets showed that they could play another way successfully.  The question therein lies is, which is the best way.

The Rockets added Ron Artest, which instead of improving the team is more of an insurance policy in the predictable event that McGrady or Yao get hurt.  Battier moves to the bench, a mistake in my opinion, as is the idea of Artest starting at the 4. But again, this is going to work because someone is going to get hurt and Battier will slide back in to the starting lineup, or at the very least, have increased minutes.

Point guard should be fine with Alston and 2nd year player Aaron Brooks.  Luis Scola continues at power forward, and played well if not great in the Olympics this summer.  The bench up front is very thin, and Mutombo may or may not be with the team again leaving Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and maybe Joey Dorsey, all small for the frontline to fend off the likes of players 3” taller and 30 lbs heavier.  With Yao’s frailty, this may not bode well.  This won’t matter until they get to the playoffs and opposing team exposes it, but during the season there should be enough pieces to fill in.

The Rockets have talent all over the floor, even more so now with the addition of Ron Artest.  And while some of the bench still needs shaping, the Rockets should end up near the top of the Western Conference by the end of the year, because when things fall apart, they have the personnel to shape it back into something formidable.  For the playoffs though, they will need Yao and TMac to be at full strength.

New Orleans Hornets

Prediction: 56-26 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

How refreshing are the Hornets?  Under Chris Paul they have become one of the best teams in the west because everyone on their team just fits.  Of course it helps when you have the best point guard in the world. Peja Stojakovic’s career had been losing steam since he left Sacramento.  A couple years with you know who and he is raining threes again.  Morris Peterson has become the now required perimeter defender/spread the floor guy and Tyson Chandler gets a lot of alley-oops from, you guessed it, Chris Paul.

Paul has done to the Hornets what Nash did for the Suns 4 years ago.  In fact, New Orleans went from a mediocre non-playoff team into a top 5 team in the league.  It can all be attributed to Paul who does it all.  His man to man defense is 'only' above average but he makes up for it with steals.  He can drive on anyone, is a above 40% shooter from midrange and has a respectable, albeit not consistent three point shot.  Because he can do all this he is able to draw defenders, create space and find a man, regardless if they are open or not.  His lobs never stray; he slows the tempo when needed and knows when he needs to call his own number.  Behind LeBron James he is would be the most sought after acquisition.  You just can’t say enough about a player who makes his teammates so much better.  That said, the Hornets have some decent players, in particular, David West.

West was an All-Star last season, and sure, some of his production can be attributed to Paul, but West has been under the radar for quite some time. If you watch his games, he works for his points.  He is an accomplished mid-range shooter and because of that he gets defenders to pop out at him as he drives towards the basket for a contested lay-up.  He either finishes or gets to the line.  He isn’t the ultimate benefactor from Paul as say Chandler is with his 5 dunks a game.  West is bully on offense, and the Hornets are better for it.

I have to touch on this because so many others have their opinions; James Posey is not THE difference maker.  Can he make a difference, yes he can, but he isn’t the same kind of difference maker that Robert Horry was 2-3 years ago.  Posey is a good player, but there is a reason that he doesn’t start.  He isn’t a great ball handler, not a great shooter outside of his spot ups and he makes a lot of bad decisions passing the ball.  Now, in the last 4 years that he is coming off the bench, his minutes have been minimal and his mistakes not as apparent.  He is a good player, but he won’t put New Orleans over the edge. 

For the Hornets it comes down to this; their regular season is great, but they aren’t quite there in the playoffs.  The need another big gun, a killer off the bench, or just some better front court depth before they are ready to challenge for a title.  This might be the new Utah Jazz from the mid nineties, getting close, but never getting it all.