Batum for Webster?

I think a Blake/Rudy/Roy/LMA/Oden lineup would be interesting, and could end up working pretty well. By all accounts Frye is quicker and leaner than last year and has worked to become a 3-point shooter, so he could be in the competition for the staring SF job as well.

Outlaw is a terrible fit with the starting unit, and Batum is probably still a long way away from being one of our top 5 players.

start Blake, Rudy & Roy. I don’t care which you call the sf, they’re fairly interchangable. Rely on LMA & Oden/Joel to make up for defensive weaknesses and BRR’s basketball IQ to mask their physical limitations.

Travis is best when left in his comfort zone (i.e. coming firing off the bench).

Our 4 best players are Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and Fernandez. It seems like they all complement each other well, and I don’t see any good reasons why we shouldn’t start all 4 of them. Oden is obviously a center, and Aldridge is clearly a power forward. Roy and Fernandez are both versatile enough that we could play them either at SF/SG, or at SG/PG. From a defensive standpoint, I think we would be a little better off playing them at the guard positions together with a SF, but only if the SF is as good as the best available PG would be. Therefore, the main candidates for the 5th starting position are:

Steve Blake: Blake is a veteran PG who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes or cause a lot of turnovers. He is solid defensively, passes well, and can hit the outside shot. He isn’t able to create his own shot effectively, but that isn’t as important when playing together with 4 dynamic scorers. When he gets healthy he should be the front-runner for the final starting position.

Channing Frye: Frye is the biggest of the players vying for the 5th staring position, and is by far the best rebounder. He has been pretty inconsistent in his career up until now, but when he is at his best he clearly looks like a starting quality player. He is an efficient jump-shooting forward who has shown that he can play within the flow of the offense. He worked hard on extending his range out beyond the 3-point line over the summer, but his new outside shooting ability has not yet been tested in actual games. He lost some weight over the summer and that should improve his mobility, but it remains to be seen if he is quick enough to defend NBA small forwards.

Travis Outlaw: Outlaw is arguably the most athletic player competing for the 5th starting position. He has shown he can be effective as a volume scorer due to his ability to elevate over opponents and get off his jump shot. However, he is not particularly efficient, and his shot creation ability will be less important playing with the other starters. Not a very good passer, and though he gets a good amount of blocks he isn’t really a good defender. He would probably be better off continuing to come off the bench where his ability to create his own shot will be more valuable.

Sergio Rodriguez: Rodriguez is a pass-first point guard who can make some dazzling passes. He has been effective playing together with Fernandez, and frequently throws alley-oop passes to him when they are playing together. He was not a very good shooter last year, although he has made an effort to improve over the summer. Because of his poor shooting, he was not very effective playing off the ball last year which was a major liability when playing together with Brandon Roy. He is also turnover prone, and not a good defender.

Jerryd Bayless: Bayless is a score-first rookie combo guard who is effective both at shooting and at getting to the rim. He also plays tenacious on-ball defense. On the other hand, he is not as good at distributing the ball as Blake or Rodriguez, and his scoring will probably be less important playing together with the starters. He is a rookie, and frequently makes the sort of mistakes that you expect rookies to make (like turnovers).

Nicolas Batum: Batum is a very raw rookie small forward. He seems to have a good basketball IQ and has a lot of potential as a defender. However, he is a poor shooter and I think he has a ways to go before his defensive potential is fully realized. He has been pretty inconsistent in his career up to this point, and it might not be a good idea to try to put too much pressure on him too soon.

To start Batum now seems to be the best choice. Try something new, now, in the preseason. Maybe, just maybe through the thick fog of unclarity that seems to surround Outlaws noggin, he might see what is making Batum successful. Because as far as pure talent goes, Outlaw still takes the cake out of all the SF hopefuls… maybe that is why we are all so frustrated. Because he could be so much more and he’s not!

Given Coach McMillan’s consumate ability to diagnose and exploit matchups, I expect the SF role to be played by a committee consisting of Roy, Batum, Outlaw, and perhaps even Frye at times, depending on who can give us the biggest advantage. This might allow Outlaw to stick with the white unit for most games, where his game has the most value to the team.

This is not particularly great from a consistency perspective, but perhaps there is a silver lining. Near the end of last week’s podcast Dave said the playoffs was about finding a way when the opponent takes away your first, second, and third options. Webster’s injury will help the team learn to deal with the kind of adversity they will face in the playoffs.