Hollinger's Blazers team forecast

The article is a good read and had some very intersting stats regarding the Blazers D last season. O fnot eot me was the following quote.

"Between the low rebounds and the infrequent steals, the Blazers were the league's second easiest team to get shots against, surrendering 0.99 shots per opponent possession.

But with all the long arms on the Blazer roster, opponents tended to miss the shots they took. Portland ranked eighth in opponent shooting percentage and ninth in opponent true shooting percentage, negating some of the advantage of all those shot attempts and placing them a respectable 17th in defensive efficiency overall."

That's right we were one the easiest teams to get a shot up against but most of those shots weren't very good. Nate's defsnise coaching was impressive one and done making sure that one shot was a contested shot.

Later Hollinger made some inconsistent remarks. "Long term, of course, Portland's youth is a major advantage, as several players are likely to improve rapidly in coming seasons. But with only two rotation players older than 25, it could be an impediment this season."

Hello you just finished praising their veteran playing ability witht he youthful tema but now thier youth becomes a question mark. Anyhow, this was a better than average team report.

over 3 years ago NWfan 7 comments 0 recs |

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Hollinger

Is an idiot. I dont want to be mean, but come on. Him and a lot of experts are so full of crap about there predictions its just unbelivable. The Blazers onyl improve by 1 game from last year? Really, after we add the number #1 pick, a once in a decade center, after adding the best Europlayer, and another lottery pick in Bayless, were only gonna imporve by one game? These people truly dont know anything about basketball.

by ggassen85 on Oct 1, 2008 1:46 PM PDT reply actions

Hollinger is far from an idiot

You just have to remember that most of his stuff isn’t opinion, but rather based on math and formula’s he’s concocted over the years. His stuff, is simply a different way of looking at things, which I for one enjoy. How many season previews based on opinion can be read before you want to claw out your eyeballs. At least he has reasoning on his side. Sometimes the formulas spit out oddball predictions that don’t seem likely or credible, but it’s pretty easy to spot them and overlook them for what they are, junk.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Oct 1, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Thats why I

think he can be an idiot. You have to realize when your numbers and formulas are incorect. And I have looked at all of his team projections for this year and I believe that this year could really force him to completly change his formulas. Always trust your eyes of stats, stats can be extremely misleading. And my eyes say that the Blazers are going to be much better then 42-40.

by ggassen85 on Oct 1, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't get me wrong

i agree with you in the fact that the Blazers will be better than 42 – 40. Personally, I’ll call 48-52 wins.

But just because his formiula doesn’t get that, doesn’t mean he’s an idiot. All he’s providing is a different view. It’s impossible to predict any league’s outcomes 9 months in advance. I don’t care how smart you are. It’s either opinion, or some sort of statistical analysis. Either way, you’re always dealing with outdated stats unknown occurrences. It’s impossible……

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Oct 1, 2008 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Hollinger

I love this part of the year. Part of it is the anticipation of the articles and blogs with the assumptions and predictions (statistical or otherwise) that prognosticators have for teams. Other part is the season is getting close. After reviewing his projections, which I agree with for the most part. I was a little stunned at his Portland prediction. It sort of confuses me. It is almost like he wants to give Portland a better prediction but is apprehensive. It’s hard for me to fathom that a team that finished at 41 wins last year in arguably the strongest conference in the history of the NBA only improves 1 win. Especially with the declining teams in the West and the improvement of the East. But, since Portland only plays East teams twice it should only improve their overall record.

It also surpriesed me, since this is a team that has youth but I’m not as sold on inexperience. His own annalysis recognized that they kept their starting five intact for 95% of the year. They have 1 all star and one potential all star that will be able to dedicate to their true position and not have to play out of position. With Bench players also playing their true positions. It seems that the biggest jump in improvement from a player comes in the 3rd year which two of the top three players of the future are entering.

If you are talking about the bench having in-experience I will somewhat agree. All though, their most expereinced bench player has been with the organization for the longest and is impossible to guard. Plus they will be adding another true center on the floor for 48 minutes shoring up the weakness he pointed out from last year “Defensive rebounding”. I don’t know, it just seems to me that they remind me a little bit of the Orlando Magic when Shaq came into the league. Look at the Jump they made. I realize they finished the season at 41-41 but the Blazers did that without Oden in the strong western conference. I’m not saying that Oden will be Shaq. I don’t think he needs to be. I just feel that their strengths and the slide of the conference will lean closer to 50 – 51 wins. Remember, this is a team that beat Utah 3 times last year. Did you see where he rated them?

Inallthetime

by inallthetime on Oct 1, 2008 2:14 PM PDT reply actions