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Little bit pessimistic if you ask me.

about 1 year ago 800px-rosegardenarenaportland_tiny jjustgo 26 comments 0 recs  | 

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At least he has us in the playoffs

But still, I think we’ll do better than 42-40.

I noticed that he put the Jazz on the top of the Western Conference, going 58-24.

by Corvid on Oct 1, 2008 11:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pessimistic is right

Even Dave predicts more wins than that.

Hollinger thinks 42-40 takes second in the NW division? Wow, I’ve gotta read what he says about the Nuggets!

And he thinks 42-40 gets the Blazers in the playoffs this year, when it took 50 wins to get in last year? Very interesting.

"Personally, I'd rather give an elephant a prostate exam on Chili Day." --Dave on rooting for the Lakers or Celtics

by MiledAnimal on Oct 1, 2008 12:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nuggets to go 41-41

 I thought a more interesting quote was in his coverage of phoenix:

At the defensive end, Phoenix didn’t beat itself — the Suns rarely fouled and didn’t give up many 3-pointers. But they didn’t beat the other guys either, as they were the easiest team in the league to get shots up against. Phoenix ranked 29th in defensive rebounding, which was one reason it dealt for Shaq, and forced turnovers on only 13.4 percent of opponent possessions, placing them 28th. As a result, the Suns were the only team to allow at least one shot per possession (see chart).

The Blazers were second at 99.1%. However, Phoenix overall defensive eff. was 16th while we were 8th. As teams rise others fall, I see Portland taking Phoenix’s spot in the playoffs. That’s not to say poenix won’t make it to the PLayoff, just that we’ll be in the the higher seed in the first round.

by NWfan on Oct 1, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correction: we were 17th in defensice eff.

but still with our youth and Phoenix’s age, i’d expect us to trend upward and Phoenix is not.

by NWfan on Oct 1, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the link.

Yeah, I think he’s low on win/loss. Otherwise good stuff.

The photo at the top of the article makes Oden look much shorter than I thought he was.

superfluous

by lukeyhere on Oct 1, 2008 12:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why is Sergio's photo on the offseason moves text box?

We're young in age, but deep in experience - Brandon Roy.

by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2008 12:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not as surprised as Jazz fan

Link!

"Personally, I'd rather give an elephant a prostate exam on Chili Day." --Dave on rooting for the Lakers or Celtics

by MiledAnimal on Oct 1, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it sounded pretty level headed.

I’m thinking 45 wins myself, and I’m a self-admitted complete and utter homer.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"In vino veritas." - Latin proverb
"Ich sitze hier und trinke mein gutes Wittenbergisch Bier und das Reich Gottes kommt von ganz alleine" - Martin Luther
"μηκέτι ὑδροπότει, ἀλλὰ οἴνῳ ὀλίγῳ χρῶ διὰ τὸν στόμαχον καὶ τὰς πυκνάς σου ἀσθενείας." - 1 Timothy 5:23

by T Darkstar on Oct 1, 2008 2:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Last year's prediction?

I tried to find out his prediction from last year, but I refuse to pay for Insider so the best I could come up with was this post from tominhawaii.

According to TIH, Hollinger’s October 2007 prediction:
26-56, 4th in Northwest, 13th in Western Conference

Does this ring any bells with anyone?

by Corvid on Oct 1, 2008 2:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He also had the Bulls winning the East

So yeah, his track record is far from spotless.

We're young in age, but deep in experience - Brandon Roy.

by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A perfect example why Dave refuses to prognosticate

it’s a lose-lose situation, and there are more than enough fools willing ot play.

by NWfan on Oct 1, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He does prognosticate, read my fanpost below

We're young in age, but deep in experience - Brandon Roy.

by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hollinger

makes one good point: The Blazers overachieved a bit last season. Their record was slightly inflated due to good health, catching opponents napping, and general good juju. So, maybe they really went 37-45 or whatever.

Still, it’s hard to respect Hollinger, who creates whatever stats happen to mimic the reality of the moment.

by Engineering Problem on Oct 1, 2008 2:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hard to respect him?

Why, because his stats don’t jive with yours? He provides a totally different way of seeing the game. I enjoy a little variety. Chad Ford gets old real quick……

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Oct 1, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quantitative analysis

is very tricky. Academics have been trying to predict the behavior of financial markets for years, with little success. It’s easy to discover backtested patterns, but difficult to predict the future. Hollinger does some good by emphisising point differential over won/lost record and he has made other contributions. Reading his column though, I get the impression that he has a much higher opinion of his methods than is warranted.

Every NBA coach would take Brandon Roy over Baron Davis and wouldn’t give a rip about PER. How do you quantify the value of James Jones?

by Engineering Problem on Oct 1, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely

He’s got an ego. When he does interject opinions, I don’t care for him. But I like what he does with numbers………I don’t take any of it as absolute, I mean why would anybody. But some of it’s pretty interesting when you combine it with your own ideas.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Oct 1, 2008 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simple observations

I’m just a simple person, by nature. (I use it for an excuse too much)…But Hollinger uses stats to compile his theories….IMO stats are often overrated and not always contextual. He may not be too far off in his predictions, However….Some simple observations

1. For a young team, the Blazers do play old (not a lot of hustle on this team)
2. Poor fundamental defense (blocking out, position traps, rotations, perimeter stops)
3.Only two proven players(Roy & LA)….(add veterans, Pryz and Blake)
4. 2 positions with major questions (3 and Point)
5. slow and methodical mindset from Nate
5.5 We don’t get easy hoops…(This has to change…We cannot continue to be a jump shooting, half court, team)
6. Injuries (can we play through the loss of key players?)
7. Still developing young players
8. We did catch some teams off guard last season
9 Did we have any wins last year that were decided early (no blowouts as I recall…this team still needs to learn how to win)
10. The Oden factor…How much can we expect of this man-child? He has very little basketball experience and none at the NBA level…He has not played a minute of NBA ball and so he still has a ton to prove) Also, he is injury prone until proven otherwise
11. The hype on Rudy & Bayless is just that…they are rookies and we shouldn’t expect more than that

    The team has a lot of upside …..And there is no doubt that they can be very good….But it is fair to predict a more moderate view of how the season could play out….This is a work in progress team with a lot of work still to do…..they have assembled the talent and now have to weave that into a team
     Predictions are for all of us to discuss and critique, but this is why you play the games…..It is always the best evaluation and will trump the stats….
    

by 67 on Oct 2, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hollinger stats.

Sure, he’s not perfect, but I think he does pretty good compared to a lot of the other noise out there. His goofy stats make his power rankings work fairly well.

Remember last year when the Blazers go on a 13 game win streak, had a better record than Utah, and Utah was still ranked higher?

Now if there was a good example of somebody getting projections even close when you are a year out….well, I dunno, it doesn’t exist. I still read all the projections and choose to agree or disagree.

superfluous

by lukeyhere on Oct 1, 2008 3:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

50/50

While I think his evaluation of our team’s chances next year is more realistic than most of the predictions I have read (2nd in the West? – Not this year folks), I still disagree with a lot of his specific points regarding certain players. I hope we go 42 – 40, learn how to be a team with our new parts, and go on to compete for a title for a long time.

this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to Keep Comment Boards Sucka Free"

by bforsythe on Oct 1, 2008 7:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The Blazers break the model a bit

He’s basing his projections on last year’s numbers, and say the Blazers won’t do as well because they had the “best years of their careers.” They’re all second-year players. They’re expected to have better seasons. If he factors in regression or even stagnation in his formula, of course the Blazers will look mediocre. If he takes progression as a given (which it most likely is), the numbers would probably come out with us in the 4-6 range.

by robrun2 on Oct 1, 2008 8:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He gets tricked by his precious numbers...

…sometimes.

So, I agree with how you’re approaching it and why he is wrong. Expecting guys like LMA, Roy, Martell, hell even Outlaw to regress isn’t a safe bet, and his numbers would have a very tough time predicting the impact of a Bayless, Rudy, a gosh damn ODEN for Pistol Pete’s sake.

If we went 42-40 and made the playoffs, I know I won’t complain. But a 1 win improvement, with LMA and Roy in their third season, and an impact IMPACT impact player in Oden added to the team, would mean something went wrong or way underwhelmed.

I don’t trust any goobledygook that says we “really” won 36, 37 games last season. We went 41 and 41. Not saying Hollinger is saying that, and Hollinger acknowledges that Oden could throw his prediction way outta’ whack.

With the grumbling in here, I figured Hollinger woulda’ been way off with his prediction, but it doesn’t seem that bad. I think Joel and Blake are both as good or better than they played last year, and we won’t miss James Jones all that much (if at all, and I liked Jonesie). I could see Outlaw regressing (or more accurately, just getting less shots so his numbers don’t seem as good) because of the added firepower off the bench, but I can’t see any other major rotation player having a worse season than last year.

I can’t say I agree with Hollinger, and I think he is a bad judge of basketeering WHEN the numbers do not spell it out for him. He finds nice things within those formulas and fractions and other maths stuffs that I don’t see though, and it can often give us better insight into why something is something… but when he uses his own eyes and his own brain to make predictions, he is often off.

Can’t fault his numbers though.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Oct 2, 2008 1:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His offseason moves are lame
• Drafted Brandon Rush; Traded Rush and Jarrett Jack to Indiana for Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu.
• Lost James Jones; signed Rudy Fernandez.
• Watched Boston screw with their cap space.

He elaborates but it’s not worth reading.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 2, 2008 8:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's wierd that Sergio's photo was used as the teaser

Anything about Sergio at all? Or did he mix him up with Rudy? (Y’know, all those Spaniards look alike . . . )

by Corvid on Oct 2, 2008 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nop

First bullet he mentions the off season surgeries.
Second bullet is all about Ike.
Third bullet is about “translated European numbers.”
Forth bullet he talked about the contracts coming off the books.
No mention of Sergio at all.

Blazers Edge has an alarmist vision

by tominhawaii on Oct 2, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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