Link!

So yeah, his track record is far from spotless.

Why, because his stats don’t jive with yours? He provides a totally different way of seeing the game. I enjoy a little variety. Chad Ford gets old real quick……

I’m just a simple person, by nature. (I use it for an excuse too much)…But Hollinger uses stats to compile his theories….IMO stats are often overrated and not always contextual. He may not be too far off in his predictions, However….Some simple observations

1. For a young team, the Blazers do play old (not a lot of hustle on this team)
2. Poor fundamental defense (blocking out, position traps, rotations, perimeter stops)
3.Only two proven players(Roy & LA)….(add veterans, Pryz and Blake)
4. 2 positions with major questions (3 and Point)
5. slow and methodical mindset from Nate
5.5 We don’t get easy hoops…(This has to change…We cannot continue to be a jump shooting, half court, team)
6. Injuries (can we play through the loss of key players?)
7. Still developing young players
8. We did catch some teams off guard last season
9 Did we have any wins last year that were decided early (no blowouts as I recall…this team still needs to learn how to win)
10. The Oden factor…How much can we expect of this man-child? He has very little basketball experience and none at the NBA level…He has not played a minute of NBA ball and so he still has a ton to prove) Also, he is injury prone until proven otherwise
11. The hype on Rudy & Bayless is just that…they are rookies and we shouldn’t expect more than that

    The team has a lot of upside …..And there is no doubt that they can be very good….But it is fair to predict a more moderate view of how the season could play out….This is a work in progress team with a lot of work still to do…..they have assembled the talent and now have to weave that into a team
     Predictions are for all of us to discuss and critique, but this is why you play the games…..It is always the best evaluation and will trump the stats….
    

…sometimes.

So, I agree with how you’re approaching it and why he is wrong. Expecting guys like LMA, Roy, Martell, hell even Outlaw to regress isn’t a safe bet, and his numbers would have a very tough time predicting the impact of a Bayless, Rudy, a gosh damn ODEN for Pistol Pete’s sake.

If we went 42-40 and made the playoffs, I know I won’t complain. But a 1 win improvement, with LMA and Roy in their third season, and an impact IMPACT impact player in Oden added to the team, would mean something went wrong or way underwhelmed.

I don’t trust any goobledygook that says we “really” won 36, 37 games last season. We went 41 and 41. Not saying Hollinger is saying that, and Hollinger acknowledges that Oden could throw his prediction way outta’ whack.

With the grumbling in here, I figured Hollinger woulda’ been way off with his prediction, but it doesn’t seem that bad. I think Joel and Blake are both as good or better than they played last year, and we won’t miss James Jones all that much (if at all, and I liked Jonesie). I could see Outlaw regressing (or more accurately, just getting less shots so his numbers don’t seem as good) because of the added firepower off the bench, but I can’t see any other major rotation player having a worse season than last year.

I can’t say I agree with Hollinger, and I think he is a bad judge of basketeering WHEN the numbers do not spell it out for him. He finds nice things within those formulas and fractions and other maths stuffs that I don’t see though, and it can often give us better insight into why something is something… but when he uses his own eyes and his own brain to make predictions, he is often off.

Can’t fault his numbers though.

Mortimer

Anything about Sergio at all? Or did he mix him up with Rudy? (Y’know, all those Spaniards look alike . . . )