Rudy's Translated Stats

by malarky on Jan 7, 2008 2:12 PM PST Comment 11 comments

I have been reading a lot of posts lately about how Rudy is going to step in next year and start right away. I have been a bit skeptical about it. I know he is a talented player but the transition from Europe to the NBA is big. My hope is he can come over an play a role similar to what Juan Carlos Navarro has done for the Grizzlies. However, I just remembered that Hollinger posted an article about translating Euroleague stats to the NBA, last year. Rudy was included in that article, but it used last years numbers. I have recalculated the translation of his numbers based on this years stats and I am now convinced he will be able to come in a contribute right away. I doubt he will start, but I could see him taking over Jack's current role.

Hollinger's Projection based on 2006 stats: 17.5 pts/40, 6.6 reb/40, 42.0 FG percent, 15.83 PER)
Note: From the numbers it looks like Hollinger used 2pt% to calculate FG%, so I used that for all the calculations.

Rudy's Current Stats: 18.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.5 asst, 56% 2pt%.

Per 40 NBA Translation of 2007/8 stats: 18 pts, 4.5 reb, 7.82 asst, 44% 2pt%.

Direct NBA Translation of 2007/8 stats (27 min/g): 13.58 pts, 3.42 reb, 5.9 asst, 44% 2pt%.

Jarrett Jack's Current Stats (26.6 min/g): 9.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.6 asst, 46% 2pt%.

Hollinger uses the following as his translations:

their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;

their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);

their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);

their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and

overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

Hollinger also did the calculations on a few others that have come over. So I did a comparison of their proections from Hollinger and their actual NBA stats.

Luis Scola:
Hollinger Projection: 17.1 pts/40. 10.2 reb/40, 50.4 FG percent, 16.27 PER
Actual: 15.38 pts/40, 10.05 reb/40, 52.8% 2pt%.

Marco Belinelli:
Holling Projection: 13.3 pts/40, 3.1 reb/40, 33.4 FG percent, 7.34 PER
Actual: 10.77 pts/40, 2.56 reb/40, 24% 2pt%.

Juan Carlos Navarro (He was not included in the article but I did the calculation since I think Rudy may have a similar impact coming over.)
Projection: 16.2 pts/40, 3 reb/40, 5 asst/40, 46% 2pt%.
Actual: 14.57 pts/40, 2.86 reb/40, 2.86 asst/40, 50% 2pt%.

My calculations may be way off here, but I think the numbers are correct. The original article was insider only, but you can find a copy of it at the following location: http://www.spursreport.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-71049.html

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Comments

I wouldnt expect a lot of assists from Rudy

but he will be better for the backup 2 role than Jack has now. I am surprised his assists are so high this year, he really didnt show that part of his game when playing for Spain this summer. I really hope Jack gets traded and Rudy steps in his place. This will also get more time for Sergio and Blake, which is a good thing in my mind. Rudy is going to be fun to watch, I cant wait...

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Jan 7, 2008 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That's a hell of a bench

Rudy at 2, Jones at 3, and Outlaw at 4. Lot's of points and blocked shots!

by mark twain on Jan 7, 2008 2:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

And Prz or Frye at center....

put 'em both in if you want to go big.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 7, 2008 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why get rid of JJ !

Yes, I'm excited about adding Rudy, but
many need to learn or experience playing for
real. When you grow a team from scratch, you
keep the players who are good and mesh well
with others. Many on this site have wanted to
get rid of JJ forever and don't realize his
steady play, toughness and ability to get
to the rim. In addition, JJ agreed to come off the bench to benefit the team and it's no
secret that it has helped in this streak. Playing
tough, putting the ball in BRoy's hands, James
coming back healthy and the team turning inward
for inspiration has helped as well. Remember JJ
is still young and improving ! The Blazers will
add all those who choose to buy in ! Welcome
GO & Rudy !!!
Go Blazers !

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jan 7, 2008 4:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Who do we get rid of?

Even without dealing with our coming draft picks somethings got to give to make room for Rudy if he does indeed join us next season (and that's assuming we also continue to leave Freeland and Koponen over seas, if either of them join us we have more spots to open up).

For this reason I think Jack is a wise trade choice, the only wiser that has any sort of a chance of flying is Darius if he returns and can ball this season, a really long shot. Finally, from my perspective it seems like Jack is back and forth on accepting his role (aka rarely point guard). He's clearly gone with it lately, but if we start losing I anticipate hearing murmurs of his unhappiness with how he is being played again. I like Jack, I'd love for him to be here for the long haul, but on the teams terms, not his. Ultimately I think he'll be moved because of this. My guess is that KP will probably try to package him with our draft pick at minimum come the 2008 draft to clear at least one roster spot. In the end I don't know if Jack will be happy with this because I honestly don't see him playing the point on a contending team, so I think he'll again be used as a combo guard.

by drawingjeremy on Jan 7, 2008 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: JJ

We had JJ coming in off the bench after the first few losses, if I recall. We won some games, then proceeded to lose what, 7 of the next 8? Then JJ33 returned, and the winning started. I don't think that is a coincidence. As you can tell, I myself am not a big fan of JJ.

James Jones for the block

by RecordTOs on Jan 7, 2008 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

he does

have an ability to get to the rim, but is a HORRIBLE finisher. He chucks up worse layups than Sergio. Actually, it's kind of a tie there, but Sergio is better at ball distribution.

by mark twain on Jan 7, 2008 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that JJ

is still valuable both as a player and a leader. He had the biggest adjustment to make this year and seems to have done it well. People forget about injuries and match ups when they want to keep one player and lose another. JJ can better body Billups and Kidd types than any other guard. He is improving and will continue to do so. I still remember how valuable he was to Georgia Tech when he was healthy and this is his first year here really healthy and rolling at the beginning. This team is evolving and we are privileged to watch it grow. It is like being on patrol around Cuba in 1962 during the missile crisis. We are seeing up close history in the making.

by lee3022 on Jan 7, 2008 8:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

As for Rudy's stats

I am excited to anticipate his coming. He is said to be likely to be offered a contract to stay in Spain several times what we can pay him (rookie scale) and just maybe that will keep him from coming.

I am appreciative to have the conversion article. Thanks.

I wonder if there is not an additional translation needed for Rudy as he is the best player on his team and maybe all of his league and here he will be a role player much like these guys, sharing opportunity and spreading the stats more evenly. OTOH the Blazers could use another wing scorer who we can depend upon to get 20-25 points per night alongside of Brandon.

by lee3022 on Jan 7, 2008 9:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs