Maybe K.P. is Small Kine Wrong About The Future

If you listened to the Chad Ford podcast with Kevin Pritchard, K.P. said he is setting the team up to pick up a big time free agent or two, in one and a half to two years.  When I look at the team now, I do not anticipate the need for a high profile free agent.  The way I see it, in two years, the Trail Blazers could potentially have five all stars on the team.  The key word is "potentially" because I have all the confidence in Roy and LMA but not so sure about the other three guys.  Oden has to stay healthy, Webster needs consistency, and Fernandez had to live up to his potential.  I also use the term "all star" loosely because all five will not go to the same all star game.

If my calculations are correct, in two years, Oden, Roy, LMA, Webster, and Fernandez will be the starters and their backups are already on the team.  Most people agree that Oden will eliminate the team's most glaring weakness.  After Oden joins the team, I think they will only need a bruiser who can rebound and foul.  In two years, McRoberts and Freeland could bulk up enough to fill those roles.  

My calculations indicate that in two years, the Blazers only problem will be too many point guards and no veteran, Bruce Bowen or Robert Horry, type player to come off the bench.  I will concede that the potential exists for Travis Outlaw and James Jones to fill those roles.  

LaFrentz and Miles will not be on the team.  I doubt either will be traded, unless it is Miles in a deal similar to the Juan Dixon/Fred Jones trade where it is basically a wash.  My calculations assume that the Blazers do not need anymore youth so draft picks in the next two years will be traded for futures or stashed in Europe.  My calculations also assume Roy will be the starting point guard (because Jason Quick is never wrong) and Sergio will mature into the backup roll.  I do not see Pryzbilla or Blake going anywhere because of their commitment to the team and they are solid role players.  That leaves the roster at 16 with five point guards.  

With 16 players on the roster, I assumed that Green, Jack, and Koponen are out, which dwindles the roster down to 13.  Freeland is also a stretch, but I factored in a homer quotient of 77.22% and it allowed for him.  That leaves only two roster spots open and a lot of salary used to resign everyone on the team.  The fudge factor in my calculation was 8.24% so there is the potential for a draft pick or trade to fill the last two roster spots.  Otherwise, I only see the need for K.P. to sign role players in a couple of years.

In summary, this is just a homer post regarding the player development of the team, my inability to see any glaring weakness after the arrival of Oden, and my desire to keep as many of the current players as possible.  My calculations are below.  Good night and Godspeed Portland Trail Blazers.

Assumptions for two years from now
Aldridge - Starter
Blake - I think he will retire as a Blazer
Fernandez - Starter
Freeland - Might be the rebounder needed off the bench
Frye - Backup to Aldrige
Green - All signs point to Roy, Sergio, & Blake
Jack - More important to the team now that Sergio but maybe not in two years
Jones - Back up to Webster
Koponen - See Green
LaFrentz - Will be gone
McRoberts - Might be the rebounder/playmaker off the bench
Miles - Will be gone
Oden - Starter
Outlaw - He is the man in the 4th quarter
Pryzbilla - Backup to Oden
Rodriguez - Change of pace guy off the bench
Roy - Starter at PG according to Quick
Webster - Starter
2008 1st round pick - I think it should be traded
2009 1st round pick - I think it should be traded
Various second round picks - I think should be traded or stashed in Europe

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