Wow, where's the defense?

by poster on Jan 6, 2008 12:34 PM PST

I stumbled upon a site that looked at team efficiency. This site is different from others in that it can show how good a team is in efficiency at home versus on the road.

http://www.nbastuffer.com/content/blogsection/15/65/

For the season, the Blazers play at a slow pace. This is true wherever they play, which is good sign since is shows that the Blazers set the pace of the game. However, the change in defensive effeciency (points allowed per 100 possessions) is frightening. The Blazers are the 8th best defensive team at home but the 26th best defensive team on the road. A difference of 9.3 points per 100 possessions is almost the difference between us and Minnesota.

As a young team, I'm guessing this isn't that much of an oddity. It will likely be corrected in the future and whatnot. I suppose the good news is that this team is already very capable of playing strong defense without Oden...or any defensive rebounds in general.

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streak

those numbers are probably skewed from the beatings we took on like the first 8 or 9 road games where we were constantly blown out.

by Philthyanimal on Jan 6, 2008 12:38 PM PST reply actions

Not exactly...

I've been keeping track of how the team has played statistically all year. I use the formula found on basketball-reference.com for efficiency though, which is marginally different. Since the streak started, the team has played slightly better defense overall than before the streak. However, there is still a large drop-off in defense on the road compared to at home during the streak. The interesting note is that the drop-off isn't as big during the streak (we played better defense on the road during the streak and worse defense at home during the streak). The major difference during the streak has been more the offense than the defense.

The shrinkage in the drop-off though could be important though. It could be mental maturity. It could be a fluke from a small sample size.

by poster on Jan 6, 2008 1:25 PM PST reply actions

Intensity and the refs

All teams play with more intensity at home, so I'm sure that's part of it. I think it affects the Blazers more obviously because of their use, but also because they rely on their bench so much. Bench guys usually play better with home energy. I've always heard that your stars win on the road and your reserves win at home. Another factor could be that refs tend to favor the home team and veteran players. When they play on the road the Blazers have both those biases going against them.

They're also a jump shooting team and players are bound to be more comfortable at home. Guys have more confidence in their shots and a hot player is more likely to stay hot if the crowd is going crazy and boosting their confidence and energy. I don't know if Webster could have had an explosion like he did if they played in Utah. He probably would have had an impact, but it looked like his testicles grew three sizes like the Grinch's heart.

Some players feed off the energy of a crowd and others live to silence the other team's fans. The Blazers have a ton of energy guys but other than Roy and maybe Trout don't have anybody with that assassin gene.

by terryisntbald on Jan 6, 2008 2:43 PM PST reply actions

Beg to differ

The assasins are developing. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "assasin", but to say Roy and Trout are the only guys who are putting the nails in the coffins of our opponents is just wrong.
Jack can have off nights and hit the big three down the stretch. Jones has hit some big shots also. And the guy who is becoming maybe a silent assasin is LMA. He has had some games (Chicago most recently) where he hits that 20 footer off the pick and pop and sinks the dagger deeper into the opponents heart.
You might have a more specific meaning for assasin so I won't quibble too much but I think the Blazers are becoming a dangerous team precisely because they have more than a couple guys stepping up down the stretch. Outlaw and namely Roy are the go to guys but it hasn't been only them.

by tssbro on Jan 6, 2008 3:26 PM PST up reply actions

Numbers

The numbers are actually encouraging if you think of how poorly we played on the road to begin the season. I think if the Blazers keep playing well the numbers will even out a bit more. I don't think they will go back to getting blown out regularly even when they lose on the road.

This is why so many people are withholding judgment on playoff possibilities. They have a long road trip coming up that will tell us a lot more about this team than those numbers will.

by tssbro on Jan 6, 2008 3:38 PM PST reply actions

Analogy

Bill Simmons: Overzealous fan
Then
Chris Hollinger: ?

Simmons is one of those guys that takes in nothing but the sights of the game.

Hollinger takes in nothing but the numbers.

Although both are flawed, I like Hollinger's approach less.

For example if you are using road schedule you are assuming that every road game is the same. Playing a Road game at Minnesota is noticeably different than one in Boston. Even if you factor in strength of schedule you are exempting discrepancies, for example New Orleans at home. That arena is dead, that team however is great, and to a lesser extent , the same holds true to Atlanta. Does NO gain an advantage from playing at home? No not really. Do they have a pretty good home record? Yes, but it's less about being at home than the team its self.

There are several other intangibles from the flow of the game as well. Like our win against Chicago, that was an impressive win, although in statistical system it is just 1 win. But we all know that one game really is indicative of how the Blazers have improved at home.

It was a game that was played on the second of a back to back, and a game where we were losing by 14. Against a Chicago team that although their record doesn't speak for it, pretty loaded with talent.

I just think that there are so many holes and variables in designing an algorithm for predicting this kind of data that it's not that great.

Now can it be used effectively as part of an overall argument? Yes I think it can but I think Hollinger needs to use his stats as only part of his opinion and not all of it.

In the NBA a hot team can come on and overachieve look no further than Golden State and Cleveland last year.

by Dheepan on Jan 6, 2008 5:48 PM PST reply actions