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Stats on how the and why the Blazers have improved

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/01/02/why-the-blazers-have-improved/#more-689

Just an interesting stat breakdown. Wages of Wins is controversial, but it has it's uses.

~Nathan

Oh, I'm a 300 character word limit and I'm OK, I work all night and I sleep all day!

Man it's fun to read the post Oden surgery projections for this team and see so many stat geeks scrambling to explain how it happened.

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Interesting stuff
I agree that JJ3 has been a big key in our progress.  I also agree that the return to form of Joel has helped a lot.

Mostly, I think that the analysis that our wins are coming from various players, and not just Roy and LMA, is supported by what we've seen.  Channing won the game for us in Denver, JJ has won a couple for us on clutch plays, Travis hasn't won any for us but Super Trout has won several, JJ3 has been huge for us.  We have become a team that can beat you a lot of different ways, and I expect that to continue.

by jscot on Jan 2, 2008 9:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Look at the Spurs, or Boston
All you need to win are three consistant offensive threats and a bunch of quality role-players to be a threat in the NBA.  One superstar without a supporting cast does not a quality team make.

by DonkeyShins on Jan 2, 2008 11:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There are two main controversial parts of WoW...
From what I've read on other forums, the two major complaints are the extreme weight put on rebounding and the overly high standard on FG%.

A rebound, accourding to Berri, counts as the same value as a turnover.  It is hard to wrap one's mind around the true value of a rebound, but looking at the results shows that rebounding makes up far too large of a chunk of a player's worth here.

The eFG% standard is set at 50%.  If one shoots at 50%, they break even for a score of 0.  Essentially, players only get rewarded for scoring if they get to the free throw line for the most part, which is too tough of a standard (one doesn't go to the free throw line without shooting a lot from the field as well).  It tries to hurt "chuckers", but it ends up negating the act of shooting itself.

Looking at Aldridge, for example, it shows that he is above average everywhere except in rebounding, steals, and assists.  The difference of -0.1 in win score could have been negatated by grabbing 0.1 rebounds per 48 minutes...which is more than made up for by the fact that this is not pace-adjusted.  Slower pace means less per-minute stats because of less possessions to do things in.

I didn't intend to go on such a long and boring statistical rant.  It just bothers me to see conclusions like Frye is better than Aldridge per-minute because of marginally better rebounding.  Frye has improved drastically, but not that drastically.  The parts I do agree with are the extreme improvement of Jones from last year and the idea that this is a team improvement rather than any individual improvement.

by poster on Jan 2, 2008 1:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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