Introducing the Tweener League

by OregonDuckworth on Jan 14, 2008 9:20 PM PST Comment 16 comments

When considering the Blazers Playoff chances, it helps me to divide up the teams in our conference into different categories. I consider six teams (Dallas, SA, New Orleans, Phoenix, the L***s, and Denver) to be locks for the playoffs. Five teams (Seattle, Minny, Sacramento, the Clippers, and Memphis) appear to have no chance at this point. That leaves us, Utah, Golden State, and Houston as the inaugural members of what I'm dubbing the Tweener League.

The Tweener League is a collection of teams in the west competing for the available playoff spots, in this case four teams, two spots. The current standings of the Tweener League:

Portland 23-14-.622- 0 GB (Hollinger Odds: 62.8%)
GS 22-16-.579- 1.5 GB (53.7%)
Utah 22-17-.564- 2.0 GB (80.8%)
Houston 20-18-.526- 3.5 GB (72%)

I find this breakdown useful for comparing our progress and standing vs. our real peers. Put simply, we beat two of these teams, we advance to the playoffs. Houston looks like the most likely to drop out of the race, with repeat injuries to their two stars and general underachieving looking likely to torpedo their season.

I'm going to try to follow these four teams for the remainder of the season, and will try to post a semi-regular update on this "unofficial league." Think of it as a corollary to Hollinger's playoff odds on ESPN, which I will also post for the teams involved (and feel free to treat it with the same amount of seriousness:) ).

Note: Some of you may object to me not including LA, Denver, or any number of the lesser teams. I disagree. Let me start with Denver. No team with Melo and AI can fail to make the playoffs. Their ceiling is inherently limited due to their two man focus, and any of the four teams in the Tweener League could easily surpass them, but their basement is likewise limited to being an eighth seed. They may not be great, but they will make the playoffs. I would argue that the Lakers are a sure thing, although it remains to be seen how they respond to the loss of Bynum. In fact, injuries are the main contingency that could move teams in and out of the "league." I will relegate and promote teams if there are fundamental shifts in the playoff picture.

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Bynum is a huge loss

now it will be the K*be show and the L*kers will go back to their losing ways

Travis Outlaw drops the sledgehammer on Daequan Cook for a dunk so vicious, it's illegal in 48 states.

by BlazerBandit on Jan 14, 2008 9:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

you could be right

it was indeed the Kobe show tonight and they very nearly lost to the Sonics (if Durant had just hit a few shots...)

Still, I think the Lakers are pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

by jksnake99 on Jan 14, 2008 9:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I'm not sure I'd put the L*kers or Denver into the "shoo-in" category yet. I could see the Blazers taking off and winning the division while Denver implodes and Utah sneaks ahead of them.

NO could implode as well, but I think they have more of a chance to make it than the L*kers (the Kobe show) or Denver. There's too much talent there.

by rockingharder on Jan 14, 2008 9:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Bynum makes LA elite

but the groundwork for this team has been Fisher coming back and Kobe being more comfortable with his teammates. I don't see a collapse like last year coming, especially if Bynum returns for the remaining month.

I will never waste a beer. There are too many sober kids in India. -Rod Benson

by supremepuntiff on Jan 14, 2008 10:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We'll see.

With Bynum out, things are going to become very interesting. The L*kers have been so hot recently, but if they struggle while Bynum's out and then have trouble reassimulating him to the lineup, they could lose a lot of games here.

by rockingharder on Jan 14, 2008 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

two of the teams I mentioned could easily pass (or stay past) Denver or LA, but I don't think three can, which is what it would take for those teams to not make the playoffs. However, if one of those teams were to fall off the map (fingers crossed) I'll happily add them to the league.

by OregonDuckworth on Jan 14, 2008 10:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I was going to agree with

jksnake and BlazerBandit, but your explaination makes good sense.

I watched the Lakers/Sonics last night and Bryant refused to let his team lose. But it was against the Sonics, who had lost their last 6 and don't have a dominating big man. Collison killed them in the paint and it was as much Kobe being able to frustrate Durant enough to keep him from getting crucial buckets as well as getting whatever he wanted offensively (inspite of a pretty decent defensive performance by Jeff Green) that won the game.

Meaning - I'll stick with your reasoning for now, but let's see how LA does against some better competition.

by timg56 on Jan 15, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Denver should be included

Having two stars dosen't guarantee anything. Teams with stars have underachieved before.

Don't underestimate Houston, they're playing well without T-Mac.

I prefer to keep it simple. We need to win the last remaning game against Denver, one of the last two games against GS, and win three of the remaning three games against Houston.

by jayseyfield on Jan 14, 2008 11:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm in favor of this league

Tweener

by tweener on Jan 14, 2008 11:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

This is a very good idea

If you'd like to do, say, updates every second week or so and then weekly as we get to crunch time--and if you're willing to put a little research into it like giving us a brief idea of trends for each team, what the significant developments are, etc.--then I will declare you the Official Blazersedge Tweener League Correspondant. You can e-mail me your reports and I will put them on the main page (with full credit to you, of course). I think this will be very valuable.

I like your league members as they stand. But there's no need to debate or worry. If a team needs to be added to the league later we can simply add them.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 14, 2008 11:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think I will try to do this

I'll try to watch their games and read their recaps, as well as try to add my limited knowledge of basketball sabermetrics to identify any hidden trends. For now, because this topic is almost dead, I'm going to post a new diary with some cursory stats of the four teams.

by OregonDuckworth on Jan 15, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Tracking road games

There is a huge disparity between some of the teams as far as how many games they've played at home and on the road, and that can make a huge difference. Houston has a lot more home games than road games left, so expect them to move up.

I think the Lakers belong in this league. If they show over the next 3-4 weeks that they can maintain without Bynum, then I'll call them a lock. Beating Seattle proves nothing....

by jscot on Jan 15, 2008 12:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Nice job Duck.

It'll be interesting to watch the league develop.

by ojala on Jan 15, 2008 6:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I live in Colorado ...

and so I am exposed to all the Nugget hype that goes on around here.

I really don't believe they belong in the elite. They are pretenders. Two prima donna superstars who have never won anything but scoring titles. Put them up against a good TEAM, and more times than not I think you'll see the good TEAMS win. And what's the west made out of this year? Oh yeah ... good TEAMS: San Antonio, Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix, L*kers, Portland, Utah, Houston ...

My money is on Denver falling out of that top group, and the playoffs altogether ...

by bfan on Jan 15, 2008 6:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Denver has played four fewer road games than home games. If they drop three of the four (not at all unlikely, in the NBA), they end up firmly in the Tweener League.

They've got the talent to be a lock, but that doesn't mean they have the team to be one. I don't mind seeing them left out for now, but wouldn't be surprised to see them join before long.

by jscot on Jan 15, 2008 7:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs