NW Division - Remaining Schedule

by Dr Dave on Jan 1, 2008 2:50 PM PST Comment 8 comments

With talk now of possibly making the playoffs, let's take a look at the remaining schedules for the top three teams in the Northwest Division:

DENVER - At first glance, Denver has a moderately difficult schedule the rest of the way with a 24-28 home/away slate. Their longest homestand remaining is a three-gamer in the middle of March. After that, they have 6 and 10 home and away with a five game and a four game road trip in that four week span. Twelve of their last sixteen are against the Western Conference.

PORTLAND - A daunting task remains directly ahead for Portland. Twenty-three at home and twenty-eight on the road including outings of seven, four and five games before March 14. Yes, that's a 13-22 home/away schedule between now and March 13! An absolutely grueling stretch. There IS a six game homestand sandwiched in the middle of that Bataan Death March. Mercifully, from that point on it's 10-6 home/away, however 14 of those are against Western Conference foes.

UTAH - By far, the easiest schedule of the three. They have 27 home games and 22 road games remaining. Their longest road trip ahead is a four-gamer in the middle of March. From that point on, they have 10 of 14 at home including a five and a three game homestand. Eleven of those against the Western Conference.

There seems to be a defining point in the middle of March for all three. This is about the time competitive teams make their stretch run. Utah and Portland will be driving for the finish line before home crowds. Denver not so much.

Will Portland have anything left after those long road trips? This is one place young legs and a deep bench can help. Will the use of that zone defense have helped or hindered the team in the late stages of the season? Many questions arise - and at this point, it's all conjecture - but considering the task ahead of these three teams, what do you think?

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Great analysis

Thanks fot the great breakdown!!! We typically don't see this analysis until 10-20 games left, but this puts some items in clear perspective for us. One being, we won't go anywhere unless we win on the road.

This can start tomorrow night @ Minny.

by hotstuffdb22 on Jan 1, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Can we aim for

.500 on the road? Is that doable?

by jorga on Jan 1, 2008 4:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The "good" teams...

...would be content with a .500 road mark. That would give them 20 or 21 road losses. Combine that with a decent home record of say...32-10 for a 51-31 season. I don't think we're there yet - especially with that horrible stretch coming up. But this team is full of surprises...

"The older we get, the better we were." Unknown

by Dr Dave on Jan 1, 2008 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Strength of Schedule

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0708.htm

That link shows the strength of opponent for each team thus far. It doesn't include things like back-to-backs or anything, but it is still a good indicator for how tough a team's schedule has been.

As of December 31st:
Utah has the 3rd toughest schedule.
Portland has the 15th toughest schedule (though it was always in the top 5 before the recent stretch of Seattle, Minnesota, and Philly).
Denver has the 29th toughest schedule (has had it for the entire season too).

Basically, Denver should have a tough time keeping up their good record, we shouldn't expect anything significantly easier or tougher the rest of the way, and Utah has a chance of making a charge.

How any of the teams do in the end can't really be predicted that well with stats though. If they could, we would only be a 20 to 25 win team this year.

by poster on Jan 1, 2008 5:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

First of all

I like your name. Basic... descriptive... functional.

I have always raised an eyebrow at the "strength of schedule" thing in the NBA for one of the reasons you just mentioned. Three games--Seattle, Minnesota, Philadelphia--and our SOS plummets from top of the league to middle of the pack. That doesn't seem very reliable. Plus were those "weak" games really that weak? Minnesota, yes, but Seattle and Philly could have legitimately beat us without shocking the world. This isn't the NCAA where you can say Kansas is going to be stronger than St. Ignatius of the Valley 365 days a year. Obviously some teams are more talented than others but you don't know what you're going to get night in and night out from most of them. Golden State can lose to Sacramento on Tuesday night, get really mad about that, and come out and smash Dallas on Wednesday. What, then, is Golden State's "strength" and how should it be weighed?

The bottom line is that after 82 games everybody in your conference will have played a roughly commensurate schedule, give or take. What matters is your won-loss record after 82. Strength of schedule smells like one of those things that folks hang their hats on when they suspect the final result after 82 won't be great. I'd be willing to bet the Spurs, Suns, Mavericks, Pistons, and Magic don't pay it any mind at all.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 1, 2008 8:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ooops!

I should say that this is a tangential response to Poster's comments and not a direct response to Dr. Dave's diary. Plotting out who has more road and home games left and the like is slightly different than affixing a specific number to the caliber of teams already faced.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 1, 2008 10:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very good points

I agree with all of your points. I think "strength of schedule" is mostly more of a conversational piece rather than something to really worry about. People have said Boston hasn't been that great because of a weak strength of schedule. When they faced the Jazz and L*kers, they beat them like they have beaten everyone else.

The NBA is truly too close in talent to make anything out of the schedule. The exception would be back-to-backs and home/road games, which is exactly what is missing from the site. I meanly look at it for the "predictor" area, which is just point differential dressed up. The key to point differential improvement is simply to keep winning though. Nothing is really rocket science.

by poster on Jan 1, 2008 8:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs