With Greg's surgery 10 days behind us, the shock has begun to wear off.  There has been so much speculation and analysis that it's tough to come up with anything new to add.  Here's a try.

No one knows quite what to expect from a post-microfracture Oden.  Will he be 100%?  90%?  50%?  Let's break down what a 50% Oden might look like.  He would lose some leg strength, but would likely be able to hold his post position well on both ends of the court.  His width, height, and reactions would allow him to frustrate other elite post players and he would still be able to block shots on his own man.  Weak side shot blocking would be confined to areas closer to the hoop.  He would lose some ability to guard out at the free throw line, using his supreme quickness to recover and block the shot of a cutter.  Ten boards a game isn't a stretch, given his bulk, quickness, and skill on the defensive glass.  With the possible inability to make quick, decisive power moves, his offense would suffer.  He could end up with the post game of a Brad Dougherty rather than a Shaq.  Greg has shown an advanced basketball IQ thus far and could be someone who benefits an offense just by touching the ball.  That won't go away.  A 50% Oden is still a top five NBA center and would receive all-star consideration.  He would average 60 games played a year until around age 29, when his effectiveness would begin to deteriorate due to knee wear and tear.

Since Greg's never played in the league, I'm not sure we'd definitively know the difference between a 75% Oden and a 100% Oden.  At 75%, he would be a dominant weak side shot blocker and could average 11 or 12 boards.  His ability to recover defensively would be solid enough to allow the team to opportunistically press.  We wouldn't see as many "wow" blocks, but the intimidation factor wouldn't be hugely diminished.  At 75%, Oden's currently undeveloped post skills would, to some extent, get blamed on lost explosiveness following the surgery when in fact they just need work.  Oden may never be a "number's guy".  His high school numbers were around 20/10 and I'm sure he was completely dominant.  Again, if Greg's NBA numbers end up being 18/10 with 3 blocks, he may be perceived as not having beaten microfracture, when in fact his game may not be stat heavy to begin with.  A 75% Oden misses perhaps 15 games a year with "this and that" and is productive into his thirties.

How likely are these scenarios?  Hard to say.  Amare is the obvious comparison, but Stoudamire is an odd combination of small forward and center.  He makes tons of obscenely quick cuts, followed by explosion to the rim.  Oden's NBA game may be somewhat more decisive, not putting as much strain on the knee from odd angles as does Amare's game.  Not being an orthopedic surgeon, I'm hesitant to handicap the odds of recovery, but it's September, it's slow, so what the heck.  Two years out, Greg has a 40% chance of a ninety percent recovery, a 35% chance of a seventy five percent recovery, a 15% chance of a fifty percent recovery and a 10% chance of, well, let's not go there.

We are very fortunate to have this kid on the team.  Because of his personality (and willingness to share it), we'll be a talked about team.  A "liked" team.  The exposure will sell more Brandon Roy jerseys nationwide than perhaps we expect.  Oden is mom, apple pie, and the flag rolled into one.  We don't have to hold our breath that he might "blow it".  Those "hall of famers" that were offered for Greg?  Other teams would still make the offer and Pritch would still say no.

We have five years to put the right pieces around our big three.  That's a long time.  It's very possible that in that span, every other player currently on the team will leave or be traded.  Look at the Bulls' championship window.  Was there any constant besides Jordan and Pip?  We have years to plug any holes in Oden's game that may have been created from the surgery.  I would put the odds pretty high that Greg sticks around after his rookie contract.  We'll be able to offer him more money and security, which becomes even more important when you've got health questions.  Hopefully he likes Portland and enjoys being able to "hide out" here.

A lot of us are in the dumps right now, worried that we've lost our "shot".  Far from it.  The odds of Oden becoming a star center, regardless of what he "might have been" are strong.  Stars are made in the playoffs and the playoffs will see a lot of Greg Oden.