over-expectations

by PhillthyBaller on Aug 8, 2007 8:10 AM PDT

i'm sure many of you have seen this post http://ballhype.com/story/mapping_the_nba_4/ on ballhype that was discussed on Truehoop.

not to be a downer, but we're near last in every single category. i know we've made some improvements... well, maybe. i haven't been able to read holinger's review of our post season (stupid insider), but i think we've improved. regardless, i don't think we made enough improvements to suddenly jump to the middle of this pack where we all predict us to be--40-45 wins. granted, some teams are sliding while we're definitely on the rise but rebuilding is a long process and we're not yet half way there.

we have the pieces now, but developing them is the hard part. let's not expect too much from these young guys and crush their confidence.

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Shouldn't that be expected...

I, honestly, wasn't surprised when we showed up near last in every statistical category last year because you don't win the #1 pick in the draft if you're one of the league's top teams.

If you think about what we had last year, we were a statistical nightmare. We had a rookie SG who played mostly PG. We had a PG who couldn't decide if he was an undersized SG or a mediocre PG. A former D-Leaguer at SF. An absolute vortex at PF, who not only didn't believe in defense, but he also required 83% of our touches and 17 seconds to get a shot off. Then, top it off with a center who either didn't (because he couldn't) shoot or a center who closed his eyes every time he dunked.

Statistics aside, though, we should all be pleased how things turned out. We'll drastically improve our "pace," which seemed to dominate most of the statistical categories, because we no longer have our plodding Zach Randolph, and when Nate was most successful in Seattle, he ran an up-tempo offense.

Over the next couple of seasons, you'll see Portland steadily rise in every category...

by Champs2009 on Aug 8, 2007 9:31 AM PDT reply actions

Our pace was slow

which by the comments was largely attributed to Zach, but I have to think Magloire also was a contirbutor as he was our inside presence when Zach sat. Both players are gone. Both Aldrige and Frye has an outside jumper. The question is, will oden bring anough of an inside scoring presence, or are those points going to come primarily from slashing.

I bet we end up with a big swing towards a sharp-shooter team just because we won't have those two guys (zach and Jamal) taking 4 shots inside just to make one hoop. Having outside shooters (even 18-20ft jumpers) opens up the inside from sagging Defense from which we saw much of the time the last two seasons.

by NWfan on Aug 8, 2007 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

From my understanding

Zach Randolph got about 20% of our possessions last year, and we were more efficient with him offensively than defensively. The pace of Nate's team in Seattle wasn't high, they were just very efficient, which explains how a horrendous defensive team was pretty successful.

We are going to be an extremely young team with few well defined roles. To start the season we will have three guys who are NBA calibre defenders, Blake, Jones and Przybilla.

by EnglandDan on Aug 8, 2007 1:17 PM PDT reply actions

Clarification please

I have no idea what the statistics would show, but I'm not 100% sure what the Zach Randolph got about 20% of our possessions last year. However, if there's something out there stating that only 20% of our plays when Zach was on the floor were run through him I'd be shocked. If you mean that he scored 20% of the time when we had a possession and he was on the court, OK, I could buy that. If you mean that 20% of our plays were run through him whether or not he was on the court or in the game for that matter, I may even buy that considering he was out for a little bit of the season and didn't play all 48 minutes. I'm just curious what exactly the statistic is... if it's how many plays were run through him when he was on the court I'd be surprised if it wasn't somewhere around 50%.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 8, 2007 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

gotta say I disagree.

I already consider LMA and Roy NBA caliber defenders.

Frye only playing 4 makes the cut as well.

Nate seems so invested in Trout that I believe his undeniable athleticism and solid work ethic will make him, too, an NBA caliber defender from the get go.

And I trust that Greg Oden will be defensive player of the year in a couple of years.

My math makes that six or seven NBA caliber defenders (without Oden), near tops in the league.

We won't be pretty on offense for a while, but I'm feeling okay about our D right now.

Gosh I love D.

by ojala on Aug 9, 2007 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions

why do you think

ticket sales are through the damn roof,because of overexpectations.by 2010 we'll see where the goofs stand.

by fatty on Aug 8, 2007 1:24 PM PDT reply actions

fatty you're right

We'll have a good deal of one year season ticket holders that bail, they are the true goofs. For the sake of the franchise I hope that some who came as goofs decide to stay because the see what is starting to come together. There will be a small percentage of people who did buy season tickets for the first time this year expecting to lose because they want to be guaranteed seats in a few years + from now. With regards to my season tickets, which I've had for a while, I upgraded prior to the season ending last year thinking that we would soon turn a corner and I wanted to lock in lower while I still had a chance. In addition when we hit the lucky lotto I upgraded again at select-a-seat because I had been with the team for long enough to lock in a good 100 level seat and I didn't think I'd necessarily have that opportunity again prior to us becoming contenders.

As for those who just became overnight Blazers fans and they drop their season tickets after just one season, though I'd love the franchise to have their money, so be it. They will miss the real ride and won't have an opportunity to hold any sort of quality season tickets when we are contenders and that will be their loss. A loss they deserve for their instant-gratification ways.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 8, 2007 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

drawingjeremy

that's great for you seriously.just tell me how it is sitting around unknowledgable people this year.see you in april dude.have fun this season you deserve it.

by fatty on Aug 9, 2007 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions

I'll let you know

buddy... I'm hoping that most of the people around me had to already be there (the 100 level season tickets were running thin, and I should have 7 years of priority over the goofs), just higher up. We'll see, if they were selling the seats in a way that they aren't supposed to be allowed to, there could be some newbies down there. Thanks for the congrats, I am excited, and if we win 35 I'll be very happy... even if we don't progress and direction will keep me happy. See you in April.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 9, 2007 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

The stats are ehhhhhhhh

Not that I'd argue with the stats talked about, because obviously they are "true", but I don't think they apply to what kind of team we'll be next year. And of course, when trying to predict the future based on how you assume players will improve or how rookies will play, you don't have anything REALLY concrete to go by, so my predictions could be way off... but using last years stats as a predictor of this year's successes or failures is pointless to me.

We're described as a "plodding" team. Do we have any plodding players any more? Pryzbilla, maybe? I wouldn't describe him as that; while useless on offense he is quick to block a shot on defense. Guys like Z-Bo (though GROUNDBOUND is a better description than plodding), Magloire, and Luke Schenscher are plodding. Those guys are gone.

The rest of our players are quick and athletic, up and down the bench. McRoberts hasn't shown himself to be super quick, but he is athletic (for a big white guy) and impressed me with some moves in summer league. However, 1 non-sprinter on the team who won't even play much regardless doesn't make us plodding.

Hollinger's stat-heavy reliance can show great insight in some instances, such as being one of the few big-media dudes to predict a Spurs championship mid-season. But, he is limited by what has been done numbers wise in the past because he relies on stats so much (it being his niche and all), and isn't a good judge of players themselves when there aren't any corresponding numbers to crunch (like, how hard they work, leadershippyness, etc). For example, does he have a formula to show how many more touches Aldridge will get now, and how much he has reportedly improved? Or how Roy being the main scorer means that our main guy can now score AND pass equally well? Those type of things just seem unquantifiable to me, at least before the season starts... so predicting one way or another just goes with opinion and gut feeling.

Not dumping the ball into two blackholes in the post nearly every damn time should improve all areas the stats say we suck turds in. Of course that is only my opinion, and I got no links or numbers to back it up, but I believe in my heart of hearts it is true and I pray every morning and night to the basketball Gods that it becomes so. So, it will be so.

Before the draft lottery, I predicted us winning somewhere around 40 games next year based upon the improvement of Roy and Aldridge, helped out with an assumed move of Z-Bo. Now with Oden, and decent role players in Jones and Blake, I can't see us not having the same amount of improvement in the wins column.

I know it's smart of us to temper expectations a bit because they have been astronomical since the draft, but c'mon... we got the #1 pick in one of the best drafts ever AND we didn't even "NEED" it to improve a lot. Oden will have ups and downs, but Roy and Aldridge will be the ones who lead us this year, just as before the lottery. I have faith in those guys to play smart, play hard, and play GOOD.

I may be wrong, but there is no way to predict this just using past numbers. I would also say it's obvious that numbers from the past focusing on players who aren't even on the team anymore being used as a predictor of future success is silly and funny, and are just as meaningless as lil' ol' ME predicting the future just based on my "feelings"...

But I think my predictions make more sense.

Blake showed he ran well with Denver (before that, I didn't think he was a running PG. He proved me wrong), and while I usually agree with England Dan I'd say that Nate seemed to run a fair share in Seattle. I felt like I watched enough of that season to have a fair judgement of their style, but you may be right... but to me, it felt like a quick offense with early (but still good) shooting that changed into a more strategic attack in the 4 quarter when Nate would take Ridnour out and put in Antonio Daniels. A quicker pace should become us as well.

I don't care what no book learnin' tells any of y'all, I sez we is a better team now. I sez we will have a better record, I reckon. We won't be world conquerors, but we'll be a team showing that while young we got lots of promise.

If we don't at least challenge a LITTLE bit for the playoffs, I'll be disappointed, but I completely understand it's not the end of the world. The West is tough, we're a team of the near future, and the Now is (still) for development. But I like what we got and believe we are better than last year. Numbers be DAMNED!

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Aug 8, 2007 9:05 PM PDT reply actions

Different team

Not sure we get much mileage out of comparing the current team to last year's. The personnel is different across the board. Let's go by position:

PG - Steve Blake will probably start and take many of JJack's minutes.
SG - Roy is healthy and no longer a rookie. He really put it together at the end of the season.
SF - Ime is gone. Trout and JJones will share minutes. Perhaps Frye as well.
PF - LaMarcus eats at the minutes buffet. Frye gets the scraps.
C - No players in common w/last year, except for the 15 minutes we'll get out of Pryz.

It's a totally different roster, so any statistical comparisons are meaningless.

by Engineering Problem on Aug 8, 2007 10:11 PM PDT reply actions

Right on !

EP & Mortimer got it right. We were already
improving with Roy & LMA. We knew we wouldn't
resign Jamaal and that when we moved Z-bo, it
would be addition by subtraction. I figured
KP would get a good vet starter and draft pick,
which is how things turned out. (Frye & Rudy:
JJones +) Now Roy and LMA can play 1-2 and help
create for others by drawing doubles/mismatches.
Getting GO was just a capper on the whole
situation. He'll come along as the season moves
along and the blazers will have a very tall,
quick team. The batter is stirring !

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Aug 8, 2007 11:48 PM PDT reply actions

last year was all z-bo

all the time. (basically.)

this year's edition is a completely different team.

ignacio

by ignacio on Aug 9, 2007 1:38 AM PDT reply actions

like i said

to many unrealistic expectations put on by the paying goofs.by 2010 when there is no title banner they'll leave.the r.garden will be 1/3 empty again.gotta love those goofs here now definately gone tomorrow.

by fatty on Aug 9, 2007 6:23 AM PDT reply actions