Foul trouble and free throws

by Diesel10 on Aug 6, 2007 1:43 PM PDT

I've been thinking about how our lineups might look as far as starting, second unit, and other variations we could put together. Dave's questions about that exact topic spurred a lot of this, as well as what other folks were responding to in their replies. It seems to be a common assumption that Frye and/or Przybilla will be getting more minutes than people expect (want?) because of foul trouble to our other frontcourt options, especially Oden as he learns.

I'm not challenging that at all. I think it's right on the money. What I am wondering is how all those fouls will affect our game. According to 82games.com ( Blazers page ) we attempted 24.5 free throws per game at 77%, and gave up 26.3 at 78%. If we're looking at serious foul trouble in our frontcourt, we could see a much bigger disparity in those numbers. Potentially, we could have something like a -8 or -10 free throw differential every night. That could be a much bigger problem for us offensively than replacing Zach's numbers. In the end, giving up free points to the opponent is about the same as not scoring points you're used to getting. If Travis continues his aggressive drives that we saw at the very end of last season, that could help our free throw numbers. However, thinking for myself as well as perusing everyone else's ideas of our possible lineups, I don't know if he'll see enough playing time to get significant free throw numbers, as well as the questions regarding whether he can produce like that without being the number 1 or 2 option on offense.

The other issue I see with increasing fouls in our frontcourt is how it affects the pace of the game. It's been noted many times that we have the personnel to be a really fast, uptempo team. Whether that's how Nate (or KP?) want it to be, the possibility is there, and in all likelihood the team will try to be as fast as is helpful. However, if we're constantly stopping the game with fouls and free throws, where are the fastbreak opportunities? And even if, as has been suggested, we're not a fastbreak team, but become a very quick, motion-style halfcourt team, how will the constant variation in pace from frenetic cutting and tenacious defense to standing around watching a bounce-bounce-free throw affect our guys? It is much harder to condition for repetitive sprints and rests than constant effort in a flowing game.

Looking at the stats on 82games.com for the preeminent running teams in the NBA last year, the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns , the Warriors shot 25.8 at 72% while giving up 29.5 at 75% and the Suns shot 22.2 free throws at 81% while giving up 23.2 at 77%. Last year, our free throw numbers were right in there with those teams, so it seems like it wouldn't be a problem, but we're looking at increasing the number of free throws we're giving up significantly. Also, don't forget that Zach was masterful at getting fouled and drawing free throws, especially during his putbacks. There's a quite likely possibility that we'll give up a bunch more free throws, and attempt even fewer.

How do you think our free throw differential will look next year? Change or no change, why? Will our foul situations affect the pace of the game we play? How quickly can our frontcourt be coached into avoiding fouls? Conversely, how quickly can they be coached into drawing fouls and free throws?

Poll

Free throw differential next year:

-5 or worse

19 votes

-5 to even

41 votes

Even

11 votes

Even to +5

11 votes

+5 or better

3 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I was just wondering about that

how many close games have the blazers been involved in that they missed at least 10 free throws...but its easier said than done..not trying to blow smoke but i've been in front of 9 or ten thousand people shooting free throws and its not so "free"..your muscles lock up in your legs, if your fatigued that becomes a factor, you start to think "dam every eye in the building is on me.." if the game is close its maginfied...and quiet as kept...stupid non basket ball things can run interference also, like the third cheerleader from the right..the english paper do thursday, i hope mable isnt preganant..you get the picture....but like the schonz always said "you've got to make your free throws"

if it can be conceived it can be achieved

by lyfefindsaway on Aug 6, 2007 1:58 PM PDT reply actions

Great post

My vote was for -5 to even. I don't think we'll get hammered on this issue (remember Pryz couldn't stay in the game last year either... so if he does better maybe we won't give up that many). I am hopeful that between LMA & whatever other big is in the game that we do a fair amount of free throw shooting, but if we aren't I am hopeful that that is because we have a mid-range + game like we haven't seen in a little while from our guys.

An interesting thing to consider with regards to this question is what you've raised about GS and Phoenix. I think we clearly are assembling a team full of runners, but I also see a high level of defensive concern. We probably have Zach to thank for both of these focuses (grass is always greener theory) being employed, though KP may have wanted to move that way anyhow.

Phoenix has a model that pretty much will allow the other side to take shots in order to keep the game moving and they like to avoid fouling or being fouled... 8 seconds or less. If we become a defensive force this may not be as big a concern to us, granted we still will want to be able to run the fast break and if we've committed a foul that warrants shots then we will have fewer options, but I am still hopeful that this would not hurt us as badly as the models mentioned. Frankly I am not sure though. The only thing is that if you can run the other team out and stamina catches up it would be nice to have the clock stopped less and being both defensively minded and having a running game we may not capitalize on that as much as we'd otherwise like to, but I think I'd trade that for our boys getting some rings... which is the intent.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 6, 2007 4:54 PM PDT reply actions

That was good, interesting post Diesel.

Commenting only on our team's ability to can the ones we get, I like how we were improving our FT percentage last year. I suppose that will drop if Pryz gets significant minutes this year - which I think he will - and if Goden can't shoot the freebies any better than he did in summer league. But I think generally, the Blazers have mostly guys that can hit 'em, which is a big plus to me.

by TwoDeep on Aug 6, 2007 6:42 PM PDT reply actions

Might be Skewed a Bit

it seems the assumption that portland might be a bit more foul prone has some validity...however:

the year long presence of oden, aldridge, and pryzbilla may actually discourage teams from atacking the basket a bit, which would tend to reduce opponent FT opportunities.

And if Nate is successful at implementing a defense that takes advantage of the new blazer assets, the team defense may reduce FT opportunities as well.

On the offensive end, portland loses zach and the FT opportunities he got, BUT, they will have Oden, a stronger Aldidge, and Roy(who attacks the basket often) and hopefully have all three for most of the season. Portland may actually shoot more FT's then last season.

Finally, portland should have a much better rebounding team...on both ends. This will serve to decrease opponents's FT's and increase their own.

In other words, I think there's at least and equal chance that portland's ft differential will move in their favor rather then against them.

by moldorf on Aug 7, 2007 5:49 AM PDT reply actions

I have to agree

with moldorf. Although I think the analysis is premature. With a team that has so many developing prospects and made so many personell changes, it's unlikely last years stats have much relevancy.

Honestly, we could be better or worse next year. The only concensus seems to be that we will be good 3-4 years from now.

by mjm6783 on Aug 7, 2007 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions

This next season foul calling will be in flux...

With the Donaghy scandal still shaking out, it will be hard to predict how fouls are called next season. Will the refs call tight games and raise suspicion of point fixing or will they call a loose game that has Roy and other guards heading to the hospital after each game for daring to drive to the basket?

How will the scandal affect the "star system?" The one that allowed Ewing's patented eight step lumber to the basket or Jordan's hook you out of the way so that I can dunk move. Portland lacks a bona fide star so is not likely to benefit from that system. Foul calling has always been biased against rookies and roll players in the past (Mark Bryant, Shawn Bradley, etc.), but who knows what will happen now?

by torsoheap on Aug 7, 2007 7:34 AM PDT reply actions

interesting thought - but you're forgetting...

...that we have a guy wearing #7 who should draw more fouls next year, too.

with Roy as the R.O.Y., hopefully staying healthy and playing in 85-90% of the games, and possibly driving the hoop more, shouldn't he get more 'superstar calls' when he gets hacked on the way? There were times last year when, if it was Dwyane Wade or Kobe driving the hoop instead of B.Roy, they could have earned a foul - but because of this rookie playing on a nobody team, he didn't get the call.

I bet the refs will crack down on those sorts of calls this year, but that likely means "things will shift slightly back to normal in January." Couldn't Roy's elevation at least a little higher in the realm of stardom help the foul ratio?

You're very right to worry - Oden will be a foul magnet for a while, Pryz always is, Frye could be too. But don't forget that the style of play will likely change for next year, and that B-Roy should hopefully be earning more fouls.

Live from the Rainy NW

by harperdc on Aug 9, 2007 2:08 PM PDT reply actions