FanPost

2009: Cap Space Reality?

We've heard much and talked much about the 'apparent' plan by the Blazers to develop significant cap space in the 2009 off-season.

I'm wondering if it's real, how much room portland might have, and what they might do with it. Hey...the early part of the off-season is kind news challenged!

Anyway, after almost certainly not enough research, I'm guessing that the salary cap after July 2009 will be somewhere between 65-69 million. Just for giggles I'll say 67 million.

Here's what I've been able to quantify as the existing players' salaries at that time:

Darius Miles            $9,000,000  
Joel Przybilla          $6,857,725  
Greg Oden               $5,361,240  
LaMarcus Aldridge       $5,844,826  
Steve Blake             $0
Travis Outlaw           $0  
Martell Webster         $5,030,692  
James Jones             $0
Brandon Roy             $3,910,816  
Channing Frye           $4,264,760  
Jarrett Jack            $2,899,798
Sergio Rodriguez        $1,892,035  
Josh McRoberts          $0  
Taurean Green           $0

that's about 45 million in salary

Obviously, I've made some assumptions: Portland would renounce the final years of the Blake and Outlaw contracts. There's some risk with that, but the blazers would have full bird rights on Outlaw, and early bird rights on Blake.

James Jones's contract would have expired, as would the contract of Josh McRoberts. Portland would have early bird rights on both, but these two players could possibly get better offers from other teams depending on how they perform in the next 2 years.

Because of Portland's loaded roster, I'll also assume that portland will not use either the MLE or BAE next summer.

So that would leave possibly 4 other contracts to account for: Fernandez, Kaponen, & the 2008 & 2009 1st round draft picks.

I'm thinking that if Kevin Pritchard is serious about cap space, he may trade at least one of those picks (perhaps along with a player) before 2009. So that would leave 3 possibly late 1st round picks...about 4 million dollars.

So add 4 million to 45 million, then subtract from the "projected" 67 million cap, and you end up with 15-20 million in cap space.

That's not bad.

And looking at that roster/salary schedule, I identify 3 players with big 2009 salaries "vulnerable" to trading to some degree or another: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Webster.

The assumption is that Miles would be impossible to move and that may be correct. However, if portland really wants to trade him they may be able. For instance, Miami is 'desperate' for a young dependable PG. And they have Antoine Walker with a 4 year contract, but a team option for the 3rd and 4th years. Jack and Miles to Miami for Walker and D.Cook.

Or if portland is really determined to maximize cap space: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Jack to Miami for Walker, Doleac, and Cook. That would gain portland nearly 14 million in extra cap space.

And Webster if not traded but still ineffective, could simply be cut as his salary that season is a qualifying offer...another 5 million in space.

I'm not saying those are "good" trades, I'm just saying they might fall into the "where there's a will, there's a way" trades.

So the question becomes, what does portland do with anywhere from 15-30 million in cap space. The common assumption seems to be pursuit of a free agent(or two). That may be correct, however the free agent market often seems to be absurdly expensive. The Rashard Lewis and Jason Kapono contracts the most recent examples.

But cap space can be used for trading as well, maybe more effectively then for free agents. And portland may have several good young players on rookie scale contracts along with draft picks and cap space to engineer some interesting trades.

Or a combination of the above: a reasonably priced FA, another on the MLE, and a trade using cap space as well.

Or they could just save the cap space to re-sign Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc.

Obviously, if some great opportunity for a roster upgrade came along before 2009, I'd expect Pritchard to abandon the cap space plan and capitalize on the opportunity. But short of that, I'd guess the summer of 2009 will be rather interesting for blazer fans.