2009: Cap Space Reality?

by moldorf on Aug 22, 2007 9:39 AM PDT Comment 18 comments

We've heard much and talked much about the 'apparent' plan by the Blazers to develop significant cap space in the 2009 off-season.

I'm wondering if it's real, how much room portland might have, and what they might do with it. Hey...the early part of the off-season is kind news challenged!

Anyway, after almost certainly not enough research, I'm guessing that the salary cap after July 2009 will be somewhere between 65-69 million. Just for giggles I'll say 67 million.

Here's what I've been able to quantify as the existing players' salaries at that time:

Darius Miles $9,000,000
Joel Przybilla $6,857,725
Greg Oden $5,361,240
LaMarcus Aldridge $5,844,826
Steve Blake $0
Travis Outlaw $0
Martell Webster $5,030,692
James Jones $0
Brandon Roy $3,910,816
Channing Frye $4,264,760
Jarrett Jack $2,899,798
Sergio Rodriguez $1,892,035
Josh McRoberts $0
Taurean Green $0

that's about 45 million in salary

Obviously, I've made some assumptions: Portland would renounce the final years of the Blake and Outlaw contracts. There's some risk with that, but the blazers would have full bird rights on Outlaw, and early bird rights on Blake.

James Jones's contract would have expired, as would the contract of Josh McRoberts. Portland would have early bird rights on both, but these two players could possibly get better offers from other teams depending on how they perform in the next 2 years.

Because of Portland's loaded roster, I'll also assume that portland will not use either the MLE or BAE next summer.

So that would leave possibly 4 other contracts to account for: Fernandez, Kaponen, & the 2008 & 2009 1st round draft picks.

I'm thinking that if Kevin Pritchard is serious about cap space, he may trade at least one of those picks (perhaps along with a player) before 2009. So that would leave 3 possibly late 1st round picks...about 4 million dollars.

So add 4 million to 45 million, then subtract from the "projected" 67 million cap, and you end up with 15-20 million in cap space.

That's not bad.

And looking at that roster/salary schedule, I identify 3 players with big 2009 salaries "vulnerable" to trading to some degree or another: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Webster.

The assumption is that Miles would be impossible to move and that may be correct. However, if portland really wants to trade him they may be able. For instance, Miami is 'desperate' for a young dependable PG. And they have Antoine Walker with a 4 year contract, but a team option for the 3rd and 4th years. Jack and Miles to Miami for Walker and D.Cook.

Or if portland is really determined to maximize cap space: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Jack to Miami for Walker, Doleac, and Cook. That would gain portland nearly 14 million in extra cap space.

And Webster if not traded but still ineffective, could simply be cut as his salary that season is a qualifying offer...another 5 million in space.

I'm not saying those are "good" trades, I'm just saying they might fall into the "where there's a will, there's a way" trades.

So the question becomes, what does portland do with anywhere from 15-30 million in cap space. The common assumption seems to be pursuit of a free agent(or two). That may be correct, however the free agent market often seems to be absurdly expensive. The Rashard Lewis and Jason Kapono contracts the most recent examples.

But cap space can be used for trading as well, maybe more effectively then for free agents. And portland may have several good young players on rookie scale contracts along with draft picks and cap space to engineer some interesting trades.

Or a combination of the above: a reasonably priced FA, another on the MLE, and a trade using cap space as well.

Or they could just save the cap space to re-sign Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc.

Obviously, if some great opportunity for a roster upgrade came along before 2009, I'd expect Pritchard to abandon the cap space plan and capitalize on the opportunity. But short of that, I'd guess the summer of 2009 will be rather interesting for blazer fans.

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Great assessment

My take is that trades will happen between now and then. Some of those trades could involve cap space, some may not. Miles may be capable of being moved once his contract is closer to expiring (and / or if he becomes truly game ready with a great attitude), but the most likely scenarios of moving him are by pairing him with other players in similar ways to what you have spelled out, even if that is further down the road, closer to his contract expiring.

I think that it is very unlikely that we will not keep any of the salaries that we could remove at our option (Blake, Jones, Outlaw, McRoberts, Green) and that it is possible that we could also have Rudy and or Koponen on the books at that time but every move will be made by answering: does this make sense for the direction of the team and does this prevent us from pursuing better options? I think it's do or die time for a number of our players, including all of the above mentioned (I know some haven't had as much time as others, but our newest draftees won't have the luxury of time that has been granted to Outlaw and Webster in particular, we are on a schedule here.

In an ideal situation we don't actually use most of the cap space we'll have to go after free agents or trade, but to keep a couple of truly blossoming players from the list above, but realistically if 2 or 3 of these 7 work out to the point that we want them during our championship runs we should be very happy with that result. That would cut into the projected cap space significantly, but could still leave us with some. (At least 5-10, and possibly much more if we ship away other cap space over the next couple of years. I think it is very likely that we'll see Jack, Pryzbilla, and Webster all moved away during that time, likely bringing back some contracts, but the goal would certainly be to reduce contracts unless we were actually receiving someone who we think will be a real piece of the puzzle.)

by drawingjeremy on Aug 22, 2007 11:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll be shocked

if there is $15+ million in cap space available. However, there probably will be enough for a really good player. What's going to happen over the next two years is a ton of player evaluation at the point guard and small forward positions. The Blazers will want to finalize the team that summer, and they won't want to dilute the free agency money by splitting it into two positions. KP is going to see if any of our youth can step up to be a legitimate starter at a playoff level at the point guard or small forward positions. If one does, then the whole kitty will go into the remaining position. A thirty year old Shawn Marion looking for a title he didn't get with the Suns?

by EnglandDan on Aug 22, 2007 11:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pritchard has a player in mind

In an interview with Primetime in July, he (in his usual non-committed demeanor) did say he had someone in his sights.
Here is the interview link(I think you need to be signed up with 1080thefan.com)...I think the free agent remarks come into play around 6:30 to 7:00.
http://demo.podzinger.com/kfxx/viewMedia.jsp?index=26&start=20&il=en&col=en-aud-pod_kfxx -ep&num=10&filter=0&expand=true&match=query,channel&dedupe=1&y=15&s=PZSI D_0000289159;Primetime+Interviews&x=39&e=7445972

by mpressive on Aug 22, 2007 12:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow great find mpressive

so let the speculation begin! This makes me believe the Paul idea a bit more. I need to dig up that list of free agents in '09

October, October, October October, Octo...... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odin)

by Idog1976 on Aug 22, 2007 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't listened to this...

so I don't know how strongly the idea was worded, but I would caution (my fellow BE'ers, I don't really think KP needs my warning) against getting too worked up over who we might have our eyes on 2 to 3 years down the road.

We don't know who's going to work out, who might get injured, who we might pick up in the meantime,... we don't know much of anything for certain. 2 years is an eternity in pro sports.

I think it was this kind of myopia, this looking at one player and disregarding everything and everyone else, that ended with Nash drafting Telfair and Webster.

by ken on Aug 22, 2007 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

the question asked is "Do you have 1 or 2 players in mind for the cap space in 09"?
KP answered: "i guess you could say that".
I see this answer as more of a "its my job to be looking into the future" kind of an answer. I am sure he could put together a board of prospects that he might go after in 09, and there would have to be someone in the #1 spot, but as ken said, 2 years is an eternity in pro sports. To say that he knows who he will go after in 2 years would be very presumptuous(sp?).

by myemic23 on Aug 22, 2007 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He may not have

been thinking of a specific player but, he did have a caliber of player in mind. "We're baking a cake and by then it will be done and we want to put icing on that cake" That sounds to me like someone very good indeed. I don't think anything can be counted out at this point. I'm excited for the future and I can't wait for early camp to start on Monday. I hope there is lots of news.

October, October, October October, Octo...... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odin)

by Idog1976 on Aug 22, 2007 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree

KP wants a high caliber player for sure, and its defenitely exciting to think that we will be able to add that kind of player to our core, even if it is 2 years away.

by myemic23 on Aug 22, 2007 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right around the 17 minute mark

Isaac complains that his internet crashed, and that he wanted to pull up the '09 available FA list to look Pritchard in the eye and drill him on who was available, and Pritchard's response was "you'll never get him".

This actually started speculation on Prime Time the next couple of days as they went over the list. Although in this interview Pritchard mentions at least twice the importance of having a star point guard, the consensus was Paul/Williams were the prime candidates, but that there may be someone a little less high profile on the list that Pritchard was targeting. Unfortunately those subsequent conversations are not podcasted (only interviews).

by mpressive on Aug 23, 2007 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice point

and that does sound familiar to me. I was listening to primetime that day and I do remember kp saying something like that, but I still think he cant possibly be sure for quite some time.

by myemic23 on Aug 23, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

A LOT of things can happen in two years! It certainly is fun to speculate though....

by mpressive on Aug 23, 2007 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

Jack and Frye are also qualifying offers that year. So, if we dont do any trades(unlikely), We would have Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Joel, Sergio, and Miles on the roster. These players would only be 33 million in salary. That leaves over 30 million to use on free agents, or resigning Blake, Outlaw, Mcroberts, Green, Jack, Frye and possibly Jones if he excercises his option. Thats a lot of flexibility.

by myemic23 on Aug 22, 2007 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but....

...and this is something I'm not sure about. If portland doesn't extend the QO's to Frte and Jack, then do they become unrestricted or restricted free agents. I'm thinking they become restricted FA's.

Either way, not extending the QO does carry some risk. If the player is an unrestricted FA then he could get a sizable offer from another team, and even with full bird rights, portland might lose him.

If he's an unrestricted FA, he could get a good offer that exceeds the QO and portland would have to match AND end up in worse poition as far as the cap is concerned.

But yes...portland can play a risky game and end up with massive cap space.

by moldorf on Aug 22, 2007 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am not sure

but I would assume that if the blazers wanted Jack or Frye back, their qualifying offers probably wouldnt be too expensive for their market value. My point was that the blazers core is really enexpenisive and there should be plenty of room in 09. If Miles medically retires, you could be looking at closer to 40 million in cap space, and 6 or 7 players that we can pick and choose from to resign. KP could potentially destroy the roster that summer and bring in the right guys to play with our core. I doubt we will be bored that off season.

by myemic23 on Aug 22, 2007 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Qualifying Offers.

Channing Frye's is $4,264,761 and Jack's is $2,899,798 according to this great site

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/07-08salaries.htm

by EnglandDan on Aug 23, 2007 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I listed the Qualifying Offers

in the original post of this thread. I also counted them towards the cap as I doubt the blazers would risk losing those players to free agency

by moldorf on Aug 23, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some Critcal Points that may or may not be missed

I posted a diary on this topic after a lot of time spent looking over the cba and a spreadheet. I could have done a much better job of explaining it in the dairy. I intended to repost complete with a html table showing the math and foot notes that show the CBA rules that apply. But I don't have time for it so I'll list these key-points. They don't contradict anyone here but posting them just to be sure that they are understood.

As it stands now, if the Blazers do no moves between now and July 09, THEY HAVE ZERO CAP SPACE.
To create cap space they have to renounce or "waive" players who played for them the previous year and are up for resigning or were unsigned players they have right to sign. This would include #1 draft picks, bird rights, early bird rights etc.
The #1 draft picks, the greens, McRoberts and Sergio salaries don't amount to much if you are trying to come up with enough space to entice an impact player. The cap space has to come by waiving players making closer to the mid-range: ie webster, travis, jones, blake, jack, frye etc.
When the league calculates your salary cap, unsigned players that you have bird rights to count 3 times their previous salary. Early bird rights somewhat less of a multipler. All #1 draft picks count at the league scale set for the year the calulation is made not the scale of the year they were drafted. In other words, a team is best off resigning their own players first or renouncing them before looking at free agency.
The mid-level and bi-annual league exceptions also count toward the salary cap, unless they are waived.

The bottom line is this. The Blazers will be over the cap in 09 but they will be close. Close enough to have, in Pritchard's words "options". To play in the 09 free agent market beyond the exceptions, Portland would have to make moves ie shed players and rights to players. This is why the next two years will be particularly interesting for any players besides the golden three and players making so little that their salaries are a non-issue. It will be interesting follow along to watch what the moves they make over the next two years do do the cap.

I would think that the Blazers could only afford one or two bench players that makes close to the mid-level exception, if they use the rest to get a high salaried high impact player. Under that scenerio the guys on this list: webster, travis, jones, blake, jack, frye have to either earn a starting position or be the one of the two bench players. The rest will be either be gone or the blazers won't be getting a free agent player of the caliber that is head and shoulders above the player he will be starting in front of.

It's not clear from this discussion whether these points are understood or not.

by mrwonderfull on Aug 23, 2007 8:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure about some of your contentions

your point about bird rights players counting 3 times their previous salary: the only classification I see that is 300% is for 4th year rookie contracts with below average salary.

travis outlaw for instance has the TO for the 3rd year of his contract, so if portland cancels the 3rd year, his calc. would be 150% (6 million)unless portland waives their rights.

Steve Blake has essentially the same contract. But unlike Travis he'd be an early bird FA so his calc. would be 130% (5.2 million) unless portland waives their right.

James Jones would be early bird as well.

Obviously, portland could get well under the cap by renouncing all 3 of those players, but they'd have to waive the MLE as well. So, they'd almost certainly lose the opportunity to re-sign them.

However, there is a section of the CBA that I find curious:

section 33: "As detailed in question number 30, free agents continue to be included in team salary. By renouncing a player, a team gives up its right until the following June 30 to use the Larry Bird, Early Bird, or Non-Bird exceptions (see question number 19) to re-sign that player. A renounced player no longer counts toward team salary, so teams use renouncement to gain additional cap room."

That June 30 date suggests a loophole to renouncing a player and losing Bird Rights.

by moldorf on Aug 24, 2007 6:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs