FanPost

Greg Oden's Rookie Year

If there's one thing to be said about Greg Oden, it's that his reputation precedes him into the NBA.  Much of the reason he may not have Shaq-like numbers in his rookie season is that he's going to get double-teamed on his first touch in an NBA game, and on 99% of touches after that, probably (and hopefully) throughout his career.  Even Kareem didn't see that kind of attention until his prime.

Oden was doubled on every post in summer league.  He was never once single covered.  Opposing teams are determined to keep him from dominating.  He was playing pickup in LA this summer with other pros.  I read that he was being consistently doubled teamed down there - in pick up games!

We're talking about a guy a year out of high school, and he's being treated like a perennial scoring champion.  Based on this, it's clear he's going to be the Blazer's Double Team Commander (DTC), a role served previously (with dubious distinction) by Zach Randolph.

If teams can't help but double up on Oden, that's going to create a lot of open looks for everyone else.  No one was doubling Aldridge last year, he may have the same thing happen again this year - as teams are going to be focused on shutting down Oden.  It also could mean a lot of open looks for three point shooters like Roy, Webster, Jack, Blake, and Jones.

I expect, as a result, that most of Oden's points will come from putbacks, running the floor, and position dunks (once he's strong enough to maintain a spot under the rim without getting rooted out).