If he gets that AND averages one block a game, I don't see any reason we shouldn't go up by 10 wins.  Alridge will out perform Zach.  He may not average the double doubles but his assists, fluidity of play, and blocks should all be higher.

SF will be weak, but I think with Zach gone Travis will play the position better.

I only really expected an 8 and 8 and  .8 on the blocks.  Maybe 2.4 assists.  I figure his turnovers will be high his first year.

I agree every player and their grandmother will be there to give him a warm welcoming foot on toe action and the old elbow to the rib cage as they fight for position.  He's really not going to be used to it, which is why I expect very little and the 8/8 is a success to me.

Year two I'd think there'd be modest improvement as he recovers.  Year three I think he'll dominate most centers.

I think there probably is more pressure on LMA & BRoy to step up than GO right now.

In Oden's case that is about as good as it could get for this #1 pick.  

My expectations for Greg are not high this year. I expect a slow start with improvement throughout the season, much like Aldridge last year. As someone pointed out in another post, the timing is good for Greg in the western conference. With Garnett gone and the Spurs aging, it could be worse. I think Oden will surprise us with his shot blocking. The guy has incredible timing and can leap! It will be a signature stat over his career.

The rookie year is a tough one. Oden will hold his own but not dominate. Hasn't this been the general consensus all along (Durant will have instant impact, Oden will take some time)? The spotlight is on Roy and Aldridge this year.

For Greg to be a success this year I think he needs only do one thing: stay healthy.  If I see him in all 82 games I'll be ecstatic.  That will show me that he is a tough kid who is ready to play in this league and the rest will fall in to place.  I am not seeing him as a 25ppg center in his career either.  I'm seeing him as more of a 15-20ppg, 12rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2bpg.  for the scoring we have Mr. Roy and Mr. Aldridge.  

I cannot wait for the beginning of this season!  I'm absolutely stoked.  

I am hoping for 2+ blocks a game though.

I agree with Dr. Dave that the focus should be to get GO healthy and a vastly improved diet should be the foundation of that effort.  Maybe that will help his energy level which in turn will hopefully lead to instilling that burning, single minded passion for the game which he is going to need if he is even to come close to meeting pre-summer league expectations ... not to mention just getting him through an 82+ game  schedule.  

My opinion is that even after accomplishing the above, his game will still need a good deal of  developing which will take time.  Greg obviously has very high level physical skills! Here's hoping his health holding together combined with the development of a killer instinct will lead to GODEN eventually becoming that very special player everyone has envisioned.

In the meantime, while waiting for this development to occur, we can tune in to Kevin Durant to get an immediate fix of young basketball greatness.    

Problem is, he won't. He'll be lucky to average 28, and part of that tentative since he'll be in foul trouble.

I was a proponent of getting Durant, but I love Oden, and I can't imagine him averaging less than 10 points a game.  His offense is raw, but it's not THAT bad and his pure athleticism, speed, and effort will get him all the dunks he wants.  Plus we got a great distributer in Brandon Roy-Bot, and a strong offensive post player in Aldridge taking the defensive focus away from Oden...

He'll do fine scoring wise and will only get better.  Offensive boards with his size and instincts, running the court, alley-OOPS on fronting defenders, and just straight Amare-type purely athletic moves around the slow stiffs who play center these days will get him 5 buckets a night, easy.

Oden is a great finisher.  Get the ball close, and he'll dunk it.  Amare or Dwight Howard didn't/don't have a polished offensive game when coming into the league, but they used their athleticism to score against all enemies.  I would be surprised if Oden's rookie year wasn't comparable to theirs...

My prediction might be different if we didn't have decent PGs and ball-mover-around-ers like Roy.  Oden all by himself would struggle, as he obviously needs someone to get the ball to him.  But he'll never have to worry about that, and Roy and Aldridge will ensure no one will double team Oden successfully.  And I like my chances with Oden vs Oberto, Dampier, Ilgauskus, Curry, the various Browns, Okur, Gasol (can score, doesn't defend), Magloire, Petro, Swift, Sene, Hawes, Kaman, Miller, any Thomas, O'Bryant, and even fellow #1 pick Andrew Bogut.

Shaq, Jermaine, Dwight Howard, Yao, Curry (offensively), Amare, Camby, Garnett, Duncan... those guys will probably give him trouble because they give everyone trouble.  But aside from learning not to foul, I just don't worry about Oden defensively.

Plus most of those guys play in the East.  And Aldridge will guard the skinny ones.  

I am fine with low expectations so the average fan doesn't get down on Oden right off the bat, but he IS a good center currently.  A hyper-athletic bruizer dunker true center will obliterate most post players in the league today.  AND he'll blow everyone away completely in a few seasons.

HOW IT WILL BE I HOPE:  A double double with 2 blocks a game.  Even with foul troubles.  Durant and Oden down to the wire for ROY, with whoever's team improved the most getting it (unless Durant's numbers are insane, which they just may well be).  If we sniff playoffs and Durant just averages 20 points on 39% shooting and the Sonics are cellar dwellers, I don't see why Oden couldn't walk away with Brandon's trophy.

Why isn't it October 30th already?!?!  So STUPID.

Mortimer

I don't know, I could be wrong, but I think he has Bill Russell talents (again the rebounding, superb defense and running the floor). Russell's offense was never polished and they used to say he dribbled the basketball like one would pat a dog on the head. Oden is so much better in that department and I think quite a bit better also potentially in his offensive game.  

Then, we'll have to remember not to compare Oden's first NBA year with Russell's. Big Bill had 4 years of college under his belt.

My extreme concern regarding Greg Oden is his physical health and his passion (or lack of) for the game (which is why I was so against him as our selection for our rare and precious #1 pick.)  The passion factor right now between these two seemingly comparable physical athletes is what doesn't come close to matching in my mind.  Otherwise, GO reminds me almost exactly of perhaps the best rebounding and defensive center of all time (that was hard for me to say as I was never a Russell and Boston fan during his era.)

Thurmond was bigger than Russell (6-11 vs 6-9) and had more offensive game.  But like Russell--and Oden--Nate was a true center who didn't care about scoring.  He was all about winning, so he let Rick Barry et al rack up the points--and the glory--while he took care of the dirty work.

That's why I'm convinced Oden will win championships with the Blazers (barring injury, of course); he should mesh perfectly with Roy and Aldridge.  Nate Thurmond had some good teammates in his career, but never the type of highly skilled, high character guys that Oden is getting to play with from Day 1.  We're talking perfect chemistry--the kind that leads to NBA titles.

Dave's predictions are based, I think, on the idea that Oden has not faced NBA competition night in and night out and that he performed somewhat poorly during Summer league. Although both of those things are true, I think Dave might also be basing his predictions on how many of Blazer big-men have performed in their first season. It's generally taken them a long time to acclimate to the NBA. What Dave, and others are discounting is that Oden is an order of magnitude more physically talented than most NBA rookie centers or forwards.

Oden will be facing stiffer competition than he has ever faced, but he will still be stronger, quicker, and more explosive than 75% of the guys he goes up against. Oden will surely struggle against guys like Howard, Yao Ming, Shaq, Stoudemire, and Duncan, but he's not going to be emotionally distressed after facing Robert Swift, Bynum, Kaman, or any of the other average centers in the league. With 30 teams in the league, there are plenty of NBA front courts that aren't really much more talented than Horford and Noah, the front court that he demolished in the NCAA Championship game. Some of their craftiness will bother him initially, but I think he'll be able to adjust quickly.  

The bottom line: barring injury Oden will average more than 14 points a game, 9-11 rebounds per game, and shoot 55% or better from the field.

 1. Offense - Go will get 3 to 4 buckets off
    follow-ups, tips & dunks. In addition, the
    Blazers will probably call 4 to 5 post ups
    for GO. This will help him keep continuity
    in his post game by working to understand
    how he can score or draw the foul. I think
    he will get 5 to 6 FT a game and since he
    proved he could hit 60 + % left handed, he
    should shoot 65 + % right handed. In addition,
    GO will get a bucket or two just outrunning
    the plodders who are matched up at center.
    1st half - 10 ppg  - 2nd half - 14 ppg

 2. Defense - GO will get pushed, banged and
    fouled regularily. Rookie initiation ! If
    we can get him with a nutritionist, as well
    as Bobby Medina, I think he'll get through
    the punishment. He will need to work on his
    footwork for D rebounds, as this is more
    about positioning and hard work than the
    quickness, leaping ability and desire that
    is inherent in offensive rebounding.
    GO will get in foul trouble ! Fortunatly, he
    will get better as time goes on and having
    Joel, Frye and Raef to back him up will help.
    I think he will have three times as many
    intimidations as blocks.
     1st half - 7.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg
     2nd half - 10.5 rpg, 2.5 bpg

 3. All Around - GO has already shown a tendency
    to distribute. He and LMA will be great as a
    pair. Aldridge cuts to the hoop and GO hits
    him for the dunk. I think we will be
    hearing this phrase a lot in the coming year.
    Kareem became a excellent passer when he drew
    double team and I think GO will pass well
    out of the post and on the outlet. GO is
    intelligent and coachable, which will help
    him grow as a player. Example - How many
    great shot blockers in the past twenty years
    try to block a shot and keep it in play.
    I've seen GO block a shot to himself and then
    throw a outlet for a dunk at the other end.
    Will GO become a Hakeem or Russell type
    defender in the future ? I think a poor man's
    Hakeem would be great, as he led the league
    in blocks and was top five in steals as a
    center. Will GO get in foul trouble ? Yes,
    but he'll learn and get better.
    1st half - 1.2 apg, 2.5 TOpg, .7 spg, 6 fpg
    2nd half - 2.1 apg, 1.7 TOpg, 1.2 spg, 5 fpg

     Final #'s for 07-08 ROY runner-up Greg Oden

   *  14 ppg, 49% FG, 9.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 66% FT,
        1.7 apg, 1.0 spg, 2.0 TOpg, 5.5 fpg

     * Stays healthy - 65 + games played  
 

Oden with the winning tip. LMA picks it out of the air who then dishes it off to Roy. Roy takes a quick two step and then tosses up an alley-oop to Oden (who left everyone in the dust after the tip) for an amazing 2 hand windmill jam that borderlines breaking a backboard. As he comes down he lets out a spine tingling roar that sends chills through anyone watching the game.

The result? A defaning roar in Portland that would result in the one thing we have all waited for over so many years now...

Rip City has finally returned... with a vengence.

Not to mention this will make for quite the highlight reel on the 11:00 news and will go down in history as the play that started a dynasty here in town.