What's the Model?

by Dave on Jul 3, 2007 1:03 AM PDT in News

Much like the post below I have covered this in various comments and off-site interviews but I find myself repeating the idea so I'll state it officially here.

Many people are guessing at the medium-range plans for the Blazers. (The short-range plans being "Develop the youngsters" and the long-range ones being "Victory parade down Broadway".) I would guess in the middle of those two is a plan we've seen before...just last year in fact.

Who was hands down the sexiest team in the NBA coming into this season...the team just about everybody cooed over and wanted to be? If you answered "The Chicago Bulls" give yourself a prize. And why were they so attractive and enviable? Because they had put together a very respectable young core but also jimmied themselves a window where they could pluck a prime free agent veteran off of the open market. It seemed an ideal game plan. Now maybe Ben Wallace isn't working out exactly as planned so far but that doesn't change the soundness of the blueprint.

It's truly amazing that in the space of two seasons the Blazers have gone from a played-out, capped-out, tuned-out nightmare into the next team on the taxiway waiting for takeoff. We too have assembled a very respectable young core. In fact without insulting our Chicago readers too much I would say that our core has at least a chance of being superior to the one the Bulls have assembled, partly because they will have been together longer when the key moment comes and partly because...well...if Greg Oden pans out there are no players on the Bulls comparable. As everybody knows by now because of the Zach trade we too will have a cap space window in 2009 with which to sign a veteran on the open market. We should have enough for a max contract if necessary. We won't need to pick an expensive center out of the bunch either. A lot of great wings and/or point guards can be had for near-max money.

That, my friends, seems like the mid-range gameplan right now: become the sexiest team alive in 2009 just like the Bulls were in 2006, only maybe even better. It's not a bad one as things go either. We'll need the next two years to get the ship pointed in the right direction anyway. Any runs we make in that span are a nice bonus. Basically for the next two seasons it's all good. And that's not a bad place to be.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Oh we're the sexy now

Compared to us the Bulls are about as sexy as Roseanne.

by jayseyfield on Jul 3, 2007 1:20 AM PDT reply actions

2009 Free Agents...

Take your pick...

Adrian Griffin
Allen Iverson
Andre Miller
Andrew Bogut
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Parker
Antoine Wright
Bobby Jackson
Carlos Boozer
Channing Frye
Charlie Villanueva
Chris Paul
Chris Wilcox
Damir Markota
Damon Jones
Damon Stoudamire
Dan Dickau
Danny Granger
David Lee
Deron Williams
DJ Mbenga
Donyell Marshall
Drew Gooden Eddy Curry
Eric Snow
Etan Thomas
Francisco Garcia
Fred Jones
Gerald Green
Greg Buckner
Hakim Warrick
Hidayet Turkoglu
Ike Diogu
Jackie Butler
Jamal Crawford
Jarrett Jack
Jarron Collins
Jason Collins
Jason Maxiell
Jeff Foster
Joey Graham
Johan Petro
John Lucas
Jorge Garbajosa
Keith Bogans
Kevin Garnett Kobe Bryant
Kurt Thomas
Lamar Odom
Linas Kleiza
Luther Head
Martell Webster
Marvin Williams
Mehmet Okur
Mike James
Nate Robinson
Quentin Richardson
Rashad McCants
Rasheed Wallace
Raymond Felton
Sean May
Stephon Marbury 7/18
Trenton Hassell
Trevor Ariza
Vassili Spanoulis
Wally Szczerbiak
Wayne Simien
Yaroslav Korolev
Zaza Pachulia

By 2009, I am pretty sure any of these guys will be clawing at the door to play for a championship with us...

by Blazer on Jul 3, 2007 1:34 AM PDT reply actions

As you say, all great plans need a blueprint.

We can pencil in 3 starters in 2009:

Center = Oden
Power Forward = Aldridge
Shooting Guard = Roy

It is hoped that the starter at Point Guard will be Sergio.

What might we need by 2009?

Answer:

Starting small forward (if not addressed by then).
Backups at every position (if current guys don't pan out).

I would imagine a lineup in 2009 something like:

Oden/Johan Petro
Aldridge/McRoberts/Freeland
Marvin Williams/Webster
Roy/Rudy/Iverson
Sergio/Koponen

where Marvin Williams, if he doesn't bust out, would be our big signing, while Iverson would sign for less as a backup to try to win a ring (like Finley or Barry on the Spurs or Payton on the Heat).

There aren't many superstars in that FA class. If I were blueprinting the Blazer's plan, I'd try to free up the cap money by 2008. How?

Francis waives his player option and his salary comes off the books at the end of this year.
Hope Darius will take his medical retirement or trade him this year.
Trade Raef and Joel for expiring contracts.

In this scenario, in 2008 the Blazers would be at about 30 million with a cap of close to 60 million.

Why would this be important? Look at the 2008 FA class and see how it compares to 2007:

Al Jefferson
Andre Iguodala
Andris Biedrins
Baron Davis
Ben Gordon
Beno Udrih
Bob Sura
Brent Barry
Brian Skinner
Bruce Bowen
Carlos Arroyo
Carlos Delfino
Corey Maggette
David Harrison
Delonte West
Devin Harris
Dorell Wright
Dwight Howard
Elton Brand
Emeka Okafor
Gilbert Arenas
Gordan Giricek
Ira Newble
J R Smith
Jameer Nelson
Jason Kidd
Jason Williams
Jermaine O'Neal
Josh Childress
Josh Smith
Juwan Howard
Kenny Thomas
Kevin Martin
Kevin Ollie
Kirk Snyder
Kris Humphries
Luke Jackson
Luol Deng
Nenad Krstic
Pavel Podkolzin
Quinton Ross
Radoslav Nesterovic
Rafael Araujo
Richard Hamilton
Ricky Davis
Robert Swift
Ron Artest
Sasha Vujacic
Sebastian Telfair
Shaun Livingston
Shawn Marion
Steve Francis
Theo Ratliff
Tim Duncan
Tony Allen
Viktor Khryapa

In 2008 you could have something like:

Oden/Jermaine O'Neal
Aldridge/McRoberts/Freeland
Luol Deng or Josh Smith/Webster
Roy/Rudy
Sergio/Koponen/Kidd

I think it's unlikely they'll be able to get the salary down that far that fast. But I hope they try like hell to do so...

by Blazerholic on Jul 3, 2007 3:56 AM PDT reply actions

Cap Space for Trading

everybody assumes that the cap space will be used for a FA. It might but there's another possibility as well: using it for trading.

Golden State and Charlotte demonstrated the mechanics on draft day.

An example: pretend portland had the 15 million in cap space right now. It's common knowlege that Phoenix desperately wants to escape luxury tax hell. With the hypothetical cap space portland could offer martel webster for S.Marion. Phoenix might very well agree. They'd get a young player AND save around 28 million this next season when adding the luxury tax savings to salary savings.

And Marion would be a great addition to portland

by moldorf on Jul 3, 2007 6:07 AM PDT reply actions

Strange, I Googled the phrase....

"sexy model" and didn't see one word about the Bulls.

Which isn't to say I didn't get quite an education...

by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 3, 2007 6:39 AM PDT reply actions

The corollary to this is,

no one is going to take us lightly, even next year. A large percentage of our wins the last few years came because the opposing team did not play as well as they could, and I just don't see that happening very much if at all next year. It means we'll have to earn our wins, and we have a chance of looking bad for stretches, if we fail to do that at times.

We're very young, and we need wins to reinforce our players' psyches. But hopefully Oden/Aldridge/Roy in particular come together to lead the team and their talent will prevail most of the time.

by ranma on Jul 3, 2007 8:02 AM PDT reply actions

low post?

One question is...will we be similar to the Bulls in that we lack a low-post scorer (depends if Oden and Aldridge develops those skills...beyond dunks/alleyoops & put-backs).

If they do, we're all set. If they don't, we'll be looking for a Free agent SF who can hit 3's AND has a low-post game, and as we know, those type of player's don't come around very often...

by jm @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 3, 2007 8:32 AM PDT reply actions

you forgot another part of the blueprint

ripping off Isiah Thomas.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 3, 2007 9:15 AM PDT reply actions

Nice post

You know what makes us sexier then the Bulls? Oden that's who. This is the benefit of taking Oden:

The Bulls had all those young wings and guards, but no awesome big man. So they had to sign Ben Wallace, a guy who sucks offensively but is a great defender.
The Blazers will need to sign a SF. So much easier to find. Had we taken Durant, in 09 we'd be looking at Ben Wallace 2.0

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 3, 2007 9:35 AM PDT reply actions

Great points

The blueprint for the Blazers is that the needs of their team: Scoring at either the 1 or 3 will be much easier assuming that Greg Oden pans out. If that's the case the Blazers blueprint will basically have been: Great 2006 draft, lucky 2007 lottery pick to take oden, 2009 signings to take advantage of easier to fill positions/skills. It's hard to see how any other team could follow the blueprint Kevin Pritchard is setting. The hardest positions to fill have been already filled. It's just a matter of that core growing up together. As you point out that will happen over the next 2 years as is. I'll be shocked if Portland isn't in contention for a championship by 2010.

Who needs Greg Oden? We got Pete Carril....

by pookeyguru on Jul 5, 2007 11:56 PM PDT reply actions