Question of the Day #2

by Dave on Jul 2, 2007 12:05 AM PDT in News

There's quite a lot of chatter going on in the diaries about our small forward position. An interesting discussion started in Ssa400's "Blazer Highlights" diary that I wanted to bring to the main page.

Let's say for whatever reason--roster spots (and remember it's not just how many you can fit but how many you can actually play) or salary or whatever--we decide we can only keep one of our small forwards up for re-signing, Travis Outlaw or Ime Udoka. If you had KP's ear which one would you argue for and why?

Here was my response to get things rolling...

This is going to be unpopular and my little Blazer heart dislikes it also, but if forced to choose between the two (assuming that you don't assume either is a waste of space) I think you have to take Travis over Ime. I love Udoka but he's 30, recovering from surgery, and probably won't be a key guy if/when you get good. If you believe in Outlaw at all I don't think you can let him get away when he's still relatively cheap.

However I will admit some suspicion over Travis:

His best moments always seem to come at the end of the season, which in the last few years has meant when the games are pretty meaningless. Whenever he's been put in a prime-time position of responsibility he's been pulled from it fairly quickly.
His best moments of all came at the end of his contract season, which is usually a sign that we need some serious caveat emptoring.
His best moments also came when he did nothing but shoot the ball. He didn't just have a green light, he had a bulldozer and a police escort out in front of him clearing the way. That isn't going to be the case if our team's going to get any good.

If you believe that any of these are fatal flaws then you don't re-sign him. Otherwise I think he has to be taken over Ime.

Agree? Disagree? Other views? Which one would you keep and why? Register your thoughts below.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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I'd keep Outlaw

Udoka's better RIGHT NOW but KP/Nate are preaching patience. And in 3-4 years, I'd rather have a 26 year old Outlaw then a 34 year old Udoka. This season though.. Udoka hands down..

but I'd prefer Outlaw in the long run.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 2, 2007 12:09 AM PDT reply actions

Udoka

I have no confidence in Outlaw. As mentioned above his huge stats came in meaningless games. Like everyone else I'm weary of letting go a young player we have spent so much time developing but sometimes you just got to cut them loose and take your losses.

We have tons of pure talent on the team, Outlaw leaving and becoming a a star on another team isn't going to hurt us one bit.

Also what a PR disaster it would be if we lost both Fred Jones and Ime this year. Yikes.

by jayseyfield on Jul 2, 2007 12:22 AM PDT reply actions

Outlaw

Is the one to keep if it's only one.

by drawingjeremy on Jul 2, 2007 12:27 AM PDT reply actions

we're like Chicago 2 years ago

Portland has loads of young talent and jus tneed to s grow for two years. Might as well keep Trout since he could be very well rounded in 2 more, whereas Ime will be more grounded (with age). To hedge the bet, I say sign travis for half the MLE for a 2 or 3-year contract (if necessary to retain Bird rights). After that is up, then we'll know whether the Blazers will move on with a new SF. But for now, they just need to grow a little together.

by NWfan on Jul 2, 2007 12:35 AM PDT reply actions

One other reason

Why I want to keep Outlaw. Trade value. Say he continues to improve, and in 2 years he's really a solid player but maybe not the player we want. Alot of teams would be willing to trade for him.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 2, 2007 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions

I think the deeper question is

what kind of offense are we going to play next year? Are points going to be coming off the break or from halfcourt sets? That would influence my decision about who I would keep.

If we are going to run post-centric halfcourt sets, then I think Ime is your guy. Shoots well from the three and serves as an outlet when there is a double team of either Oden or Aldridge, and he is a slightly better passer than Outlaw.

If we are running a more uptempo break style offense, then Trav is your man. He more athletic than Ime and a far better finisher on the break. If he can get in the passing lanes a bit and get steals he would be a big asset to a running team

by JPop on Jul 2, 2007 12:43 AM PDT reply actions

What I think the Blazer plan is...

They will match a reasonable offer for Outlaw which will mean Udoka will be out of the mix. If another team signs him to a bigger deal than the Blazers want to pay, they will sign Ime as a stop gap until another player pans out in a year or two.

This makes alot of sense to me. Both are likable, decent players but not irreplacable.

by tssbro on Jul 2, 2007 12:50 AM PDT reply actions

travis has improved a lot

and has shown the determination to keep improving. when he went shot-happy this was encouraged by the coaches. then when he finally started driving to the hoop he showed some real ability to either pull up in rhythm or get fouled.

on defense hopefully he'll keep working hard; hes already made a impression with his weakside blocked shots.

i enjoy seeing him play well so im not impartial, im an advocate. at a certain point in these analyses my best guess is "we'll see."

it's very encouraging that kp and nate have made pretty strong statements about wanting him back and about the possibility he might start.

ignacio

by ignacio on Jul 2, 2007 1:59 AM PDT reply actions

Travis

I like how Ime gives you a great defensive option off the bench. And I have no problem with a 34 year old Ime. Bruce Bowen is 37 and still going strong, and Ime's somewhat comparable. And he was voted our most inspirational player here at BE.

But any playing time with Oden and LMA is going to greatly benefit Outlaw. Fast breaks and dunks off of blocks and altered shots will make Travis more valuable.

If it coms down to this, keep Ime around as a special assistant coach...

by Blazerholic on Jul 2, 2007 4:11 AM PDT reply actions

Udoka

If we go into next season with the SFs we have now - Webster, Outlaw, Jones, Udoka - who do you think would win the starting job?

Udoka. I understand time tables, etc..., but it doesn't mean everyone on the team has to be 25-and-under, especially if like Udoka you're not taking up an cap space to speak of.

I hope we bring them both back. I'm totally fine with giving both Webster and Outlaw the chance to beat out Ime and be the future small forward. But I don't want to hand it to them because Outlaw had a few good games at the very end of his contract year.

If we really are working on a long term timetable, than we're not in a hurry to get lock down every position. I also don't see Outlaw's style as what we need from our starting small forward anyway.

by matthewcc on Jul 2, 2007 5:52 AM PDT reply actions

udoka

Sorry about that last post.

Stats are fools gold. Who has more of the intangibles that make a team hum.

by Lena on Jul 2, 2007 7:05 AM PDT reply actions

Not that last post

thought I had posted before I was ready. guess not.

by Lena on Jul 2, 2007 7:07 AM PDT reply actions

Neither

I'm sorry, but I don't see the point of bringing either of these guys back. Outlaw was being used primarily as a backup power forward last year, which is no longer really a need with Frye coming in. Udoka is a great guy, a good defender, a clutch shooter...but are you really going to give minutes at the SF to a 30-year-old when you already have Martell, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, etc battling for minutes? I say let Travis walk, make Ime a nice, relatively short and small offer, and if he wants to do it, great. But as much as I like Ime, if he goes somewhere else I don't think that's the worst thing in the world.

by HarryManback on Jul 2, 2007 7:17 AM PDT reply actions

It's a coin toss

First of all, we have to take the sentimentally factor out of the equation.

The Blazers have invested a lot in Outlaw both in patience and high expectations but with marginal returns.

With Ime there are no expectations. He is an average player with some defensive abilities who fills a role.

Coin toss: a player who may develop later or a player who fills a role now.

by cuza on Jul 2, 2007 7:31 AM PDT reply actions

Udoka "average" compared to whom?

Valid comparisons to Udoka are Ron Artest and Bruce Bowen. All three get the assignment to guard the other team's best swingman, and are good at it. So all three guard, and are guarded by, the same opposing players.

Ron Artest: 37.7 min/game, 18.8 points, 6.5 rebounds.

Ime Udoka: 28.6 minutes, 8.4 points, 3.7 rebounds.

Bruce Bowen: 30.0 minutes, 6.2 points, 2.7 rebounds.

So Udoka is better than Bowen on all counts, but not nearly up with Artest (except on attitude and work ethic).

But Udoka IS better than Bowen, and Bowen ain't chopped liver.

by monkeysuncle on Jul 2, 2007 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Udoka

is not better then Bowen. Bowen is a better defender then Bowen, and Udoka at 6'5 is a liability against big SF's. Also Udoka was on a much worse team, hence the stats.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 2, 2007 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Bowen's a better defender than Udoka...

...you mean.

Udoka's a bit better on offense, though the difference between five and six points a game is nothing to write home about.

But Udoka is nowhere near Bowen's class as a defender. (Or Artest for that matter). Udoka gets lit up by anyone who can both jump and shoot, as he has no ability to bother the shot of larger athletic threes. And unlike Bowen, he doesn't compensate by sticking out his foot under jumpshooters (which is one way to deal with the problem--make the opponent afraid to shoot over you...) Udoka is fundamentally sound, hustles, and keeps his man in front of him most of the time, but he doesn't have the physical attributes to be a world-class defender.

On a scale of zero to ten, where 0 is Adam Morrison or Pete Maravich, 10 is a guy like Scottie Pippen or Michael Cooper in his prime, and five is an average NBA defender--Udoka is probably about a six. Bowen is probably about a nine, Artest about an eight.

However, at six, Udoka was still the best perimeter defender on the team last season. Roy finished the year at about 4-5, JJ was about 3-4 (he can't fight through picks and is routinely beaten by quicker guys), as was Freddie, and none of Dickau/Sergio/Webster/Juan Dixon play anything remotely resembling acceptable defense.

Damn. I sound like Charley Rosen.

by EngineerScotty on Jul 2, 2007 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Scary...

...all this youthful energy and talent but not much aged wisdom. This is why I had hoped we would go after a veteran leader at the 3. With roster space becoming an issue, we're going to have to make some tough decisions. Is there any way Ime would consider retiring and signing on to the coaching staff :) ?

As was stated in an earlier post, with Roy, Aldridge and Oden as our core, that 3 spot is a little more forgiving. I say keep Udoka for now. He can hold down that spot. He's very capable and DEPENDABLE. Unless management has plans to go get an experienced SF, Ime's a good stop-gap for a couple years.

Travis (love him to pieces) needs to go test the market and see what's out there. I'd love to see him blossom on another young, less talented team (in the East, please). Face it folks, we're loaded. It's the kind of 'problem' coaches love but tough decisions are coming.

In spite of the above, I know Nate likes Travis and if it actually came down to choosing between the two, Ime would probably go.

"...though you may fail...aim at something high." Henry David Thoreau

by Dr Dave on Jul 2, 2007 7:55 AM PDT reply actions

yep

I'd prefer Udoka -- he GETS it. He would complement the big players, play defense, get out of the way when necessary, assert himself when possible for offensive boards, defensive stops and threes. We need guys who understand their roles.
They'd sign Outlaw because he might turn into something bigger, like Jermaine did. He's younger, really jumps and he's spent his time here becoming a good one-on-one offensive player, sometimes REALLY good.
The point about the kind of offense you run is well-taken, too. Outlaw could be killer in motion or Princeton sets, but Ime is your guy for more traditional low-post, pick and roll, find the mismatch NBA offenses.

by barryj on Jul 2, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Udoka vs Outlaw

Under Dave's scenario, if we can only keep one player, you keep Travis Outlaw.

1) James Jones is a bigger version of Ime Udoka.
Both can shoot 3's, defend, and get out in transition. Unless we plan on getting ride of JJ through another trade, then Ime is the odd man out on a loaded roster.

2) Travis Outlaw will have more trade value as he keeps developing. Even if we don't plan on keeping Outlaw for the long term, we've invested too much in him just to see him walk away with no compensation.

I like Ime a lot...it's just touch circumstances with open tryouts this year on the Blazer roster.

by VegasNed on Jul 2, 2007 8:28 AM PDT reply actions

Outlaw

All I kind think of is someone else signing outlaw and it becoming O'neal all over again.

"Z-Bo gets the ball and dribbles out the shot clock all while Curry screams for the ball"

by JTDuck22 on Jul 2, 2007 8:56 AM PDT reply actions

Udoka.

You just listed all the reasons, so I won't bother. He simply plays "the right way," whatever that means. I think we can rely on him a lot more to make the right decisions on the court. Plus he'll be cheaper, and probably more amenable to a shorter-term contract than Outlaw.

by bfan on Jul 2, 2007 8:57 AM PDT reply actions

I'd keep Udoka in a second

Trout will cost more, probably in the neighborhood of at least a 4 year deal for roughly MLE money. Which would be fine if he improved significantly, but if this is as good as it gets (low bbiq, black hole who launches 20 footers off the dribble without conscience, but isn't that good at it), then that's going to be another albatross contract in a couple of years. Let someone else tie up their cap space hoping for the light bulb to go off for this guy. If we're paying 5 mill/yr for 5 years for Trout, and we settle for a second option free agent because they're making 10 million instead of 15 million, then this contract hurts our roster.

Ime probably will be what, like 5 mill/3 years? Totally worth it; yeah he's a little older, but for the solid position type wing defense he plays, you don't need youth to be effective. As San Antone and Phoenix are showing, having a dedicated wing defender like Bowen and Bell to assign to the Kobes and LeBrons of the world is incredibly necessary to compete at the highest levels.

by howlingfantods on Jul 2, 2007 9:04 AM PDT reply actions

get rid of both

hell you have chance of a lifetime to make a major upgrade at the 3.hell j.jones is better than anyone on the bench right now.at least he can hit a wide open 3 and jumper.ume well as a 9.th man o.k. but outlaw well it's time for a change.and i'm curious to see who he'll bring in next week. and also excited about the rally for zbo on broadway later today.boy are the knicks fired up about zbo.and i'll say it again,the stuff he did out in pdx.he'll get away with here in nyc..

by fatty on Jul 2, 2007 9:30 AM PDT reply actions

ZBo in NY

Zach's problems in New York will have nothing to do with what he does off the court. I can't figure out how he and Eddy Curry are going to play next to each other. It reeks of Marbury-Francis--two guys who need the ball and do what they do in an almost identical way. There are ugly days ahead for New York. At least as ugly as they have been for the past three or four years...possibly more ugly.

by HarryManback on Jul 2, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions

There are three kinds of players...

Instinctual. The game comes naturally to them, but they suffer from tunnel vision. They don't see the other four players on the floor, nor do they understand how they are to mesh within the unit. Not a pack animal, but can learn.
Intellectual. Has a gift for the game, and will excel in any drill that requires no thought. Over-thinks things in game time situations. Unable to blend natual talent with court awareness and instinct. In some cases the mental interference can be controlled, but it requires time, something that NBA players with "potential" have in limited supply.
Out of body. This player can untilize his natual instincts and inteligence together to make himself and his team mates more efficient. He's able to look outside himself to see, not only his objective, but his opportunities as well. This characteristic is a mark of maturity, though it does not necessarily come with age.

Outlaw is a #1, Martell is a #2, and Roy is a #3. Ime would be a 2/3 player in my book. He seems to make the right decision almost all the time, but his age and injury limit his instincual talents.

The real question isn't Ime vs. Trout. It's whether Trout can make the leap from #1 to #3. Does he posses the mental ability to intellectualize the game? Formulate strategy and tactics in the flow of the game? Much as I'd like to be able to say yes, I can't. He'd be worth getting cheap if the opportunity presented itself, but if it was a choice between Ime and Travis today, I'd go with Ime. Smart players win games.

by Steve The Hedge on Jul 2, 2007 9:37 AM PDT reply actions

sams

I doubt that Outlaw is going to improve a ton; he's had three seasons in the NBA. Most guys get close to their plateu by the time they are 23. With more minutes and more experience, his numbers would be more impressive, but do not see him becoming an all-star. The best-case scenario is that he develops into a Robert Horry type role-player--someone that can defend, hit jump shots and play smart basketball.

That being said, if you have to chose between Ume and Outlaw, the sensible thing to do is to sign Outlaw, so long as the contract is within reason.

by PoliSam on Jul 2, 2007 9:40 AM PDT reply actions

I dunno...

I'd prefer Udoka, but particularly with our vast inherent improvement in interior defense, Outlaw is the much higher risk, higher reward player. Udoka's smarter and cheaper, and plays nice defense.

I'm sick of the offense being bogged down by people like Outlaw holding it and doing mindless, ill advised isolations over and over. We have Aldridge, Oden, and particularly Roy to run our iso's, and so besides them, we really need spot up jump shooters and people who can play offense without the ball and preferably not stink it up on defense.

Honestly, I feel like Martell is going to be good this year at the 3 if he can learn how to move without the ball, so between Udoka and Outlaw, keep Udoka.

by ranma on Jul 2, 2007 9:47 AM PDT reply actions

When given the greenlight

Travis has always excelled. That's something that should not be overlooked. While I think Travis is still learning the game and really would have really benefited from going to college, at his core he has a certain amount of "clutch" to his game. Under pressure his mid-range jump shot rips the twine.

Getting to the line like he did towards the end of last season was also a major step in the right direction. He was really playing well last year before he sprung his ankle. Once he recovered from that and one back the coach's confidence he excelled.

We will lead the league in blocked shots if he starts alongside Oden and Aldridge.

by jayjaylbh on Jul 2, 2007 10:12 AM PDT reply actions

I'd go with Ime

Lots of posts about patience and 3-4 years and Ime's age... blah, blah, blah.

Trout isn't that good. His offense is scattered and inconsistent. His defense is below average (aside from the occassional awesome block). Hitting shots means nothing in garbage time when no one is guarding you, regardless of how many you make (and take!).

Ime will be great off the bench. He'll hit his occasional three to crush the opponents momentum, and he'll be a good presence with Joel on the second unit defensively.

In 3-4 years when we're "ready" we'll have either found someone in the draft, or we can go get the final piece. In the meantime, let's have a team with good character and still win.

If I had to choose one, Ime.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jul 2, 2007 11:42 AM PDT reply actions

Ime works with Oden/Aldridge

I'd like to keep both, I really think Outlaw's improvement at the end of last year was real. However, if I had to choose one for next year, I'd go for Udoka. Here's why:

With strong offensive weapons in the post, you need people who can camp out outside and hit the three if left alone.
Udoka is a fantastic defender (at least as good as Bowen last year). Combine that with great defense inside and we've got the kind of defense that can win the big games.
Udoka can set a positive example for the young guys and help get them involved in Portland.

I'd keep both, unless Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace are there for the taking. I don't hear talk of anyone offering Outlaw big money, and SF is the one position that is deep in this free agent market, so I don't think he will cost us too much.

by akahoopla on Jul 2, 2007 12:16 PM PDT reply actions

For those of you supporting Ime

Do you think Ime's skills duplicate James Jones' skill set? (i.e. 3 pt shooting, defense, transition game, etc.)

If so, can a team with a loaded roster like that Blazers really keep two developed players (already hit their ceiling) that do the same things?

I really like Ime and hope he does stay on the team... somehow. A local kid that works his butt off and is willing to do anything for the team is easy to root for. Since there probably will be several more roster moves before the season starts, I would expect that the Blazers will have both Ime and Outlaw back.

by VegasNed on Jul 2, 2007 1:11 PM PDT reply actions

maybe

I really haven't seen James play enough over time. But I also think Ime is adaptable -- he can do a lot of things to help a team, including playing SG. And the team will be really different this year without Zach gobbling up precious seconds with the ball every trip. He'll be more valuable than last year. My only concern would be health. And sure, the Blazers NEED guys, more than one, who understand that they aren't the center of the universe.

by barryj on Jul 2, 2007 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Outlaw

No disrespect to Ime. I like him. He's a good story. And I hope he stays on the team, but in this hypothetical situation, you have to take T.O. He has a higher upside with his talent and for future trades. He's a piece that can be used to make the team a champion within the window they're working on, if not by his playing alone then in what he can bring back in trade.

Ime has the experience, but experience comes to everyone who keeps at it.

And didn't T.O. set the Blazers' record for most consecutive free throws last year? That's a sweet record and someone I want on the court in a tight game decided at the line.

by kro on Jul 2, 2007 1:30 PM PDT reply actions

Gimme Ime

He is right now what we want Martell to be. A solid defender and consistent 3 point shooter. Yes Outlaw is the longest tenured blazer, but Ime's veteran prescence in so valuable to a team full of 1-3rd year players. He hustles all the time and is our best on-ball defender and is pretty good at it too. Ime is a guy who all 30 teams originally passed on (more than once) and just having him around tells the players that no matter how high they were drafted or how highly regarded they are supposed to be, hard work is what will keep them in the league. Plus it adds a little sting to the opposition to see an undrafted player out of PORTLAND STATE hit threes in their eyes after the ball is kicked out on a double team.

However I keep reading all of your posts and cannot help but think of the future, which makes keeping Ime pointless.

That being said, I think we spring for the SF of our dreams next year (Marion?) making developing Travis moot. I would rather have a savvy defensive specialist who can hit the three than "the leaping enigma" giving us 3 boneheaded moves per night around to spell him.

by Jaketron on Jul 2, 2007 7:19 PM PDT reply actions

One more thing

Oh and for all of you who are pointing out Travis' end of season run as signs of improvement, who can forget Darius Miles' similar run capped off by a 44 point masterpiece against the Celtics on the last day of the 2004 season?

by Jaketron on Jul 2, 2007 7:22 PM PDT reply actions

Tough, but Udoka.

I think Travis has improved, but he still gets beat on D regularily, and puts up most of his stats in 2nd string minutes or garbage time.
His main problem is his lateral quickness. He's a long step runner/mover. He is not able to stay with quick SF's on any move to the bucket. He would continually grab and foul or try for a block from behind when beaten. I like Travis, but I think he will end up as a PF when he fills out. Apparently Deputy Pops is a BIG BOY, which means Travis will probably put on another 20-25 lbs in the next couple of years.(Metabolism slows, Work-out???)
On the other hand you have Ime. Yes he duplicates some of JJones skills, but as he is
6'5" and quick (laterally and running), he could
spell both SF, SG and when a larger PG needs
guarding, bring in Ime. He shoots an excellent %
(when healthy) from 3, can and will move without the ball, and hits the boards with ferocity at times.In addition, he is a great guy (we talked for a couple of minutes after the last game) and he's a known hard worker; Travis ???? Ime could morph into an assistant coach after this next contract and be an insurance policy for the championship runs 2010 - 2020 ??
It's all about WILL ! Nate has it, So does
Brandon, LMA, GO, and Ime as well!

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jul 2, 2007 11:49 PM PDT reply actions

Outlaw

He's younger, has more potential, and can contribute (if he continues to improve) on a Championshiop team.

I like Ime but he just doesn't have the physical tools to contribute at a Championship level at SF.

I am the master of my fate, I am the Captain of my soul. - Charles Wesley

by Earl on Jul 2, 2007 11:51 PM PDT reply actions

Outlaw

As much as I like Ime and hope to keep both-- Outlaw has to be the first priority. Outlaw's shooting, youth and athleticism is too important to let go. We know he has talent and Nate is finally comfortable with Travis-- which speaks volumes.

by reffster on Jul 3, 2007 10:05 AM PDT reply actions