Question of the Day #1

by Dave on Jul 1, 2007 11:57 PM PDT in News

I must admit I'm having kind of a post-draft hangover. It's a really pleasant one however. Every morning when I wake up I have to pinch myself because we've got what most people consider a franchise center! I know some, doing an Oden/Treebeard impression, will say, "Hoom-hom, let's not be hasty!" but still, you've got to admit this is a pretty good situation to be in. So you can forgive a long-time Blazer fan if four days later I'm STILL a little giddy.

That leads me to the first question for today:

What do you expect out of young Mr. Oden this year? I don't want championship predictions or hall-of-fame votes down the road, I'm talking about 2007-08 only. What kind of effect will he have on the court? How about statistically? Will he be Rookie of the Year? What will he need to learn/develop to make this year a success?

Fill up the old comment basket with your best shots at answers.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Comments

Keep it simple G.O.

12-13 ppg, 9-10 rpg, 2 bpg.

What I really want to see? A team guy. Someone who plays good defense, the offense flow with/through him, not begin and end with him like Zbo. I want him to play tough. I want him to play fearlessly. Those 2 characteristics would make me love him. I want him to show his presence.

I don't think he'll be rookie of the year unless he's hiding something. I think Durant runs away with the award cause I think he'll drop 18-20 ppg like melo/lbj did. I think Acie Law may be 2nd/3rd in voting with Oden, I think Law will get a ton of PT in Atlanta.

Oden, awards aren't what matters though my friend. Improve your game. Improve your team. That's what matters.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 2, 2007 12:02 AM PDT reply actions

Amen Brotha!

Bucky

by Bucky Blazer on Jul 2, 2007 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions

sounds perfect to

me, right on

by drawingjeremy on Jul 2, 2007 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Let's not forget...

...4-5 assists (as he draws the double-team). If he can do that, I'll be over the moon.

by DonkeyShins on Jul 2, 2007 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

I suspect

he will be in foul trouble quite often which will cut into his statistics. Guys like Conley jr., Durant, and maybe even Yi are going to get heavy minutes and probably score more, so I don't expect Oden to get the ROY award. But I don't care at all about that, I just want exactly what junit3123 stated above.

by JPop on Jul 2, 2007 12:33 AM PDT reply actions

I'll Say...

10 pts / 10 rebs / 2 blocks per game. He won't start drawing double teams until he starts to grow into his offensive game, which won't be until late in the season, but when he does it will open things up beautifully for LaMarcus.

(Note: I came up with those numbers before looking at junit's predictions. Nice to know I'm not way off base.)

by Toast on Jul 2, 2007 3:50 AM PDT reply actions

Dave, did you just come up with Oden's nickname-

Treebeard!

by Blazerholic on Jul 2, 2007 4:02 AM PDT reply actions

No

Somebody else here did (and I'm sorry I forget who and where). The visual comparison was brilliant.

--Dave

by Dave on Jul 2, 2007 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions

Treebeard

On this site, shenanigans referred to Oden as Treebeard first (in a good metaphor) and Leeroy posted the visual.

by ladygonegrey on Jul 3, 2007 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions

he should be better than previous young centers

Dwight Howard had 12 pts, 10 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks as a rookie (when he was 18, 19 years old). He started 82 games.

Yao Ming had 13.5 pts, 8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks, and he was about 21 (anyone else a little shocked that at 7'6" Yao has average double digit rebounds once in five years?). He started 72 games.

Pau Gasol had 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds and .5 blocks in 79 starts as a rookie, when he was about 20.

I expect Oden to get 25-30 minutes a game the first half, but to really come on after the All-Star break. I'll say by the end:

16 pts., 13 rebounds, and be in the top 10 with 2.4 blocks per game. I also think he'll shoot over 55% from the floor.

He hit 62% of his free throws at OSU while shooting a bunch of them left handed. I bet he hits at least 70% and we'll hear a lot about how this will make him immune to the hack-a-Shaq.

I'm going to go ahead and also guess he's going to win rookie of the year, because I think the Blazers will make the playoffs and that Oden will have an explosive second half.

Noah would be my darkhorse. If he can work his way into the starting lineup, he'll be solid contributor on a really good team in a really weak conference.

by matthewcc on Jul 2, 2007 5:45 AM PDT reply actions

I think there's...

a 40% chance of rookie of the year. expect Oden will have moments of being completely lost on the court, but I also expect he will be an impact player from the get-go.

I also think there will be ball movement this year like we haven't seen in a long time.

by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 2, 2007 6:13 AM PDT reply actions

we had ball movement last year

ya know, like the ball would move to Zach, wait roughly 20 seconds and then move from Zach's hand toward the rim. Every time. Like clockwork.

by JPop on Jul 2, 2007 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm not loking

for a bigtime scorer, although I can watch someone making pretty hookshots all day long (I hear he has a good one too). No, what I'd like to see is him warrant the brunt of the attention. If they are double and triple teaming him, this will free up the rest of the team. Rebounds, outlet passes on fastbreaks, clogging up the lane, blocking shot after shot, kicking out the ball to open teammates, and some MONSTER DUNKS would put a big smile on my face. I am soooooo stoked for the season to begin. I can't remember the last time I felt like this. Go Blazers!

by ptldguy on Jul 2, 2007 6:59 AM PDT reply actions

immediate impact

Barring injury: 18.5-12.5-2.5 and he turns the team defensive statistics around... He's not going to shrink, his freakish physical gifts aren't going away, his commitment to learning the game won't disappear. He is a monster #1 pick. He will be ROY unless he gets on the losing end of a David v. Goliath battle w/ Durant: sometimes sportswriters want to show how sophisticated they are by voting for someone OTHER than the obvious choice (like the guy in Toronto this year).

by barryj on Jul 2, 2007 8:17 AM PDT reply actions

Oden: 14.5-12-2.5

Durant will be rookie of the year, dropping 20/gm for a VERY young Seattle team. He will be the man from the get-go.

by CalNoah on Jul 2, 2007 8:30 AM PDT reply actions

I don't care about stats ...

I would love simply to see some steady improvement from the big fella in stamina and ancillary skills like passing and blocking out and staying out of foul trouble. I covet dominance on the boards out of Big Oden more than I do scoring.

I also want to see some nastiness. Dunk on a few fella. Grit your teeth and snarl a little bit. I'd love to see him get up in some vets grill for pushing around a teammate ...

by bfan on Jul 2, 2007 8:53 AM PDT reply actions

Dwight Howard

Oden will have a season much like Dwight's rookie campaign. Lets say 13-14 points, 12 boards, and 2-3 blocks.

"Z-Bo gets the ball and dribbles out the shot clock all while Curry screams for the ball"

by JTDuck22 on Jul 2, 2007 8:59 AM PDT reply actions

Many more, I mean

Many, many more....

Fast break opportunities off blocked shots (see LMA & Oden both make this stat spike big time).

Slam dunks attacking the basket.

Defensive stops.

= The initial Oden effects felt by team.

(just the tip of the iceberg baby!)

The Oden Era, Day 5

by Heymoe on Jul 2, 2007 9:02 AM PDT reply actions

i love this stuff

when it comes to treebeard,not bad at all.i'll give him 16-11.5-3.5.he'll be a stud right away. as far as rookie of the year goes,mr.durant in a runaway.

by fatty on Jul 2, 2007 9:22 AM PDT reply actions

16+ points, 10+ rebounds, 2+ blocks

Interestingly, I think most people are under-estimating what Oden is going to do next year. If Oden is the next great center, some one like Duncan, Shaq, Ewing, etc, he'll average close to 20 points a game.

At Ohio St, he averaged 16 ppg, 10 rpg, 3.3 bpg, all while only playing 29 mpg. He did this, moreover, playing with an injured right wrist. Considering that so many of his shots were dunks, the wrist might not have been a devestating handicap, but it was a handicap.

Of course, he'll face much stiffer competition in NBA. On the other hand, the trend for elite centers in the last 20 years is that they are MORE PRODUCTIVE in the rookie years in the NBA than they were in college. With more possessions, more minutes, less zone defense, and more skilled teammates, elite centers just have more opportunities in the NBA than in college. Guys like Duncan, Ewing, Shaq, Robinson, and Olajuwan came in and average 20 points in their first seasons. As mathewcc notes above, Paul Gasol averaged 17 points per game in his first season...

Considering the overall make-up of the Blazers, I think Oden will get a lot of playing time and a lot of chances to score. He may also be in competition for the rookie of the year trophy, but it will depend on how the Blazers do as a team. If he puts up big numbers and the Blazers are in the playoffs, he could win, even though I am sure the Durant will score more.

by PoliSam on Jul 2, 2007 9:26 AM PDT reply actions

Blocks tell part of the story

Oden's rookie stats: 14pts, 11rebs, 2.5 blocks

Rookie of the year: These awards favor offense over defense, I go with Durant.

Team stats like opposing teams FG% are a difficult stat to pinpoint to one particular player. That being said, we should definitely see a decent drop in our opponent's FG% and "points in the paint" with Groden in the lineup (LMA will help here as well).

Blocks tell just part of the story of what Groden brings to the table defensively. There will be a lot of players adjusting their shots when they come into the lane. A lot of teams will be forced to adjust their offensive strategy.

by VegasNed on Jul 2, 2007 9:27 AM PDT reply actions

don't hate me for being so optimistic

I think he starts slow out the gate, but comes on big time down the stretch (when it will really matter for ROY voters... the front half of the season is always overlooked).

By years end, I think 17.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg (which would be more if LMA wasn't taking some of them), 3.5 apg, AND 3.5 bpg.

And yes, I think he'll get the ROY.

Don't forget he played all last year with his wrong hand... so now not only do we get him with his good hand back but he's also ambidextrous.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jul 2, 2007 11:15 AM PDT reply actions

BLACK LINCLON

i expect nothing less out of black linclon then to lead this team to the promise land: The playoffs this year. then Championship in 3. 09-10 WORLD CHAMPION PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS.

so excited. i just moved to amsterdam so i'm keeping the blazer flames lit over seas.

getting the blazers tattoo...soon.

one luv blazer nation!
jk

by nep4life on Jul 2, 2007 11:53 AM PDT reply actions

If the Blazers improve 11 games...

Like they did last year, I think Oden will have a real shot at R.O.Y. because he'll obviously be a big factor in that. Though is there an Oden, Oregon he can go to for a rally?

I'm not sure our friends in Seattle have any chance of that kind of team improvement this year. In fact, they may win fewer games with Durant and no Allen than they did last year, and that's no slam on Durant, it's just that his opportunity to make a dramatic difference on the team took a huge step back with the trade (though he does have the chance to rack up some impressive individual stats).

by kro on Jul 2, 2007 1:19 PM PDT reply actions

Stole my thunder.

The very last post on the page and you hit it right on the money. Don't care about the stats, I'm expecting 10 or so extra wins and narrowly missing or just sliding into the playoffs but getting ousted early. That does make GO the frontrunner in my mind because Durant is going to lose way more than he'll be comfortable with and lesser stats but more wins will carry the day.

It won't be all GO, but in a way it will be because he'll completely reinforce the team first and win at all cost ethos Sarge and KP will insist on from here forward. When your best player and your next 2 completely buy in, heaven help the guy who doesn't fit in and that will drive the whole team to work harder than the other guys and win more than they should while gaining experience.

In Kevin Pritchard we trust.

by TP43 on Jul 2, 2007 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Shock and Amaze

I'm thinking he will blow people away right out the block. He's smart so I expect a lot of improvement quickly as he gets comfy with his teammates and the NBA in general. I'm saying that when it's all said and done: 16ppg, 11rpg, 2.5 bbpg. And he'll win rookie of the year. I think Durant'll get injured.

by Jumbo on Jul 2, 2007 4:04 PM PDT reply actions

People forget

that foul trouble will be slightly less of an issue since you get 6 to foul out in the NBA. I realize that the ratio of fouls to minutes in the game are the same, but since he'll be in a rotation with aldridge and joel (dunno as much as I'd like to about frye's defense) who both are also gonna look to block a lotta shots and thereby be committing a big portion of interior fouls I don't see it being as much of an issue as it was at OSU where he was THE big man and all their defense was designed to funnel guys directly at him all game.

by DominicanAvenger on Jul 2, 2007 6:09 PM PDT reply actions

good point

When Oden had to sit out because of pontential foul trouble at OSU, it was a huge deal. In Portland, its not ideal, but Frye, Pryzbilla, and Aldridge can buy definitely hold down the fort just in the front court, nevermind the offensive production Roy provides.

One important thing we all keep missing: Oden will make his Blazer teammates better... but his Blazer teammates will also make him better.

by matthewcc on Jul 2, 2007 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Slow season

I would think that he has a huge bullseye on his back. He is kind of stealing the thunder of nba players around the league. He is has been predicted by many to be a hall of famer. I see him getting the best D from anybody he faces. They want to let him know he is still a rook. There will be a time when he gets a nasty dunk thrown on him and it makes the top 10 on sportscenter. I just hope it pisses him off and makes him tougher for the future. Like the nice guy off the court, but want a cold blooded monster game time. No smiling, get a game face.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jul 2, 2007 7:22 PM PDT reply actions

To put it simply...

A broken backboard dunk over Shaq.

There is a new big dawg in town, time for him to claim his throne.

by Blazer on Jul 2, 2007 11:01 PM PDT reply actions

GO TREEBEARD !!!

Oden will be fantastic ! Primarily in helping the
Blazers get back to the playoffs. I think the Blazers will grab the 5-6 seed with a 2nd half surge by GO.
He will anchor our D with 2.5 blocks, 4.0 Intimidations, and one highlight block/outlet to a teammate for a fast break dunk. He will take the
Blazers out of the cellar in Defensive boards with
7.0 per game, and crash the "O" boards with 4.0
(2 finished with THUNDER). He will move without the ball, set up in the post and dazzle us with
a hook shot or drop step to the hoop for the two
hand flush. To the tune of 14 ppg at 57 %. When
using his size and quickness to max, he will create matchup problems that help him draw 5 + trips to the line, where he will shoot with alternating hands to the tune of 71 %.
When two (or more) opponents try to guard him all
at once (Listen up, Zbo), he will look for the
3 pt shooters or cutters, and take Sarge's advice
by hitting them with dimes x 3. All in all, GO will grow/shave some wiskers, crack jokes with
the media, take care of his family (Blazers too)
and be a champion, maybe not ROY or MVP. Then
again I wouldn't bet against him.

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jul 3, 2007 12:15 AM PDT reply actions