FanPost

Maximizing Cap Room for Summer 2009

Why NOT to sign a mid-level Free Agent or bring in a Marion, et al

Ok, If the Blazer's intention is to be a major player in the 2009 free agent market (courting a bigtime PG or SF to go with the big 3), then here's how they do it.  Yes, it sacrifices some short term success that can be had by upgrading the SF position now, but it gives us a HUGE amount of room in 2 years to bring in the missing piece or two of the puzzle entering our window:

  1. Avoid any FA signings or mid-level signings this summer, unless they are for 2 years or less. more time is OK if years 3+ are team option.  Anything beyond the 2nd year will hurt our room for summer 2009.  This includes Travis, Ime, any sign and trades, MLE guys, etc.  Sign as many as you can and want, just make sure they are short contracts. (note, this rarely happens, given that 3 year contracts are required to obtain bird rights, so this scenario is highly unlikely, except maybe with Ime).  This also implies not matching Outlaw, since he will almost assuredly get a 3+ year offer from someone.
  2. The same principle applies to our 2nd rounders this year and next, although this is much more likely to be a reality than point 1. 2nd rounders routinely sign 1 and 2 year contracts, and in any case, they are very cheap cap-wise
  3. If any or all of Rudy, Kopenan, and/or Freeland come over this year, they will be team-optionable in summer 2009.  If they come next year, then there salary will be on our cap in that summer.  Either way, their cap numbers are all going to be right around the 1 to 1.5 million mark each that summer, so they are cheap.  any first rounder we get next year will be guaranteed on our cap in summer 2009.  Mid-first round will be around 2 million.
  4. Don't extend any of our young guys, just pickup the team options as they come up between now and then.
Now, here's the payoff for summer 2009:

Maximum Room:  Renounce Webster, Jack, and Frye.  Assuming we've followed points 1-4 above, we're sitting at 37.5 million if we've brought all 3 Euros over, a tad less if not.  That's going to be at least $18-20 million under the cap, or more if we don't bring over all 3 Euros, or we renounce anyone we bring over this year.  Huge.  If you want to retain any of the above, the qualifying offers you would have to make are 5, 4.2, and 2.9 million respectively. so, you could keep Webster and still be 13-15 million under, or keep Jack and still be 15-17 million under, etc.  You can do the math.

If, along the way, we've broken any of the above rules, our clearance goes down.  Let's assume we sign a MLE guy this year or next, and pickup Travis.  There goes at least $10 million.  We've still got $10 million if you renounce all the 4-year guys, which is a good amount for a very nice FA, but now your hamstrung to do one or the other, you can't have both. If even one of those 3 guys is worth keeping, then bye-bye bigtime Free Agent.

That's why I'm adamantly opposed to bringing in a Marion or a Wallace, or any other free agent this year.  Sure, they help us win a bit more the next 2 years, but they kill our options for free agency in 2 summers when we'll be looking for the "missing piece".  Instead, i propose we play the next two years with an eye on 2009/10.  We fill out the roster this year and next with 2nd rounders and very cheap free agents, keeping them all on short deals. Then in summer 2009, we can decide which of Jack, Frye, and Webster are worth putting a QO on and still having lots of room to lure a bigtime FA.