Portland: Off Season Loser-ISH?

by mpressive on Jul 19, 2007 10:03 AM PDT

Hollinger posted the other half of his article today:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=offseasondecl iners
Though he raves about our future, we are stuck just on the wrong side of the list at 18th overall. His big argument is losing Zach and will Oden replace that offense. I think it should be looked at as can LMA & Oden match ZBo & Joel, which I think everyone can agree yes. Furthermore, the defense upgrade we get with our new lineup should be an even bigger boost. Some crud about Jack & Blake + losing Ime...but overall I think we are in the wrong report (even if we do not make it back to the playoffs, we will on paper be better than last year).
Thoughts?

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I guess I see his point...

Our hopes for next season hinge on big years from Roy and Aldridge. If those two can combine for about 36-38 ppg, I don't think the loss of Randolph will hurt our offense much.

by jksnake99 on Jul 19, 2007 10:20 AM PDT reply actions

To match Zbo/Przybilla

Aldridge and Oden would each need to average 13 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 dime apiece to stay even with last year's starting front-court production. Not exactly a stretch.

by mpressive on Jul 19, 2007 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions

reasonable

I think Hollinger makes some very reasonable points. Just remember he's solely talking about next season's win total & that he barely put us on this list (we were only 3 spots from being on the other list).

Losing your #1 offensive option and your #1 defensive stopper (even if replaced by better long term guys) is not a recipe to add more wins.

His critique of the Blake signing has some merit, though he doesn't totally understand the nuance of Blake's history w/blazers and chemistry with Nate/KP - which hopefully will translate to chemistry with his new teammates especially if there's a logjam at PG.

I imagine if we'd re-signed Ime at 2 million/yr instead of adding Blake at 4/million/yr we would have made his other list (just barely).

by jm @ Blazer's Edge on Jul 19, 2007 10:31 AM PDT reply actions

counterargument

I agree its reasonable but I think this is the main argument against Hollinger. You could make a very good case that the Blazers will improve their overall (defensive and offensive) efficiency at C, PF (Aldridge can score 18 and not give up nearly as many ppg as Zbo), SG (another year under Roy's belt) and PG. The loss of Udoka will hurt but James Jones is an adequate replacement.

I see us making a modest (~3-5 wins) improvement this season.

by jksnake99 on Jul 19, 2007 10:37 AM PDT reply actions

I don't know...

it seems like basically he doesn't think we will win more games next year.

Granted there is a learning curve for the rookies (Oden) in learning the speed and tricks of the NBA game. But I think we all agree that our defense has improved. We now have long and tall all over the place... let's see, our good defenders: Roy, LMA, Oden (who will have foul trouble at least for a while), Frye, Pryz, Blake (an upgrade from what we had), and the subtraction of Zach.

Points may very well be a wash for the starters, though I bet it goes up. Yes, replacing Zach's 23 won't be easy, but LMA should do high teens, Roy will probably do high teens, even if Oden only does 10 that's more than last years center. But
our bench unit comes with some experience and might actually be our saving grace. That second unit might be able to run the oppositions second unit off of the floor, and even hold tight with another teams starting unit.

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jul 19, 2007 10:46 AM PDT reply actions

My guess

is the Blazers will exceed Mr Hollinger's forcast if they avoid injuries. If they have to go long periods without Roy or Aldridge I would not expect much if any improvement in the win/loss column.

by bbfred on Jul 19, 2007 12:17 PM PDT reply actions

Absolutely. Roy's health will be

-probably the biggest key. (this year) J. Jones would slide to the 2 though and I've got the feeling he's going to really surprise a lot of people/fans. Did you see how his shooting % always improves in the playoffs? That's a VERY good sign!! I'm also wondering if TO will resist starting (again) making JJ our guy at 3. When listening to his interview, he certainly has confidence as "a shooter."

by edgeguy42 on Jul 21, 2007 12:04 PM PDT reply actions

Not an insider

But I can glean most of it from previous posts. I think the Blazers will be better by 8-12 wins and here's why:

PG - Jack was a first year starter last year and I think he will be better this year. If he isn't out there it means that Blake or Sergio have outplayed him and that can only be good for the team.

Center/PF - I think most of you have pointed out why we will be better than last year at these positions and I agree. Better D and Team O instead of Stat-Bo. Also Frye/Pryzbilla is a stronger bench than Magloire/Outlaw.

Roy - more confidence, more respect from refs/players, stronger leadership. He had to be the one Pritchard was referring to when he said a player came to him and said he wanted Zach gone. It is his team and he knows it.

Don't forget that this team won a lot more games on the road than you would expect from a 32 win team. Making your home court your turf should be easier than convincing guys they can win on the road.

The loss of Ime will be tough in some ways but team D should be better with Oden, Aldridge, and Outlaw on the court and his perimeter defense may not be as important as last year.

There are definitly questions that need to be answered but I think most of our young players improved last year and now have a year of playing together under their belts. I think we should see marked improvement and an outside shot at the playoffs.

by tssbro on Jul 21, 2007 1:52 PM PDT reply actions