a look at 09

by winnerwinner on Jul 17, 2007 9:22 AM PDT

i decided to take a look at how we look for the 09 season. i made some assumptions. we bring over rudy next year, and kopenen and freeland in 09. we think we will have a bunch of cap room in 09, so i wanted to see if that was true

so i see our rost as:

Rudy at 2 mil
Roy at 3 mil
sergio at 2 mil
LA at 5 mil
oden at 5 mil
mcroberts at 500 thou
and green at 500 thou
08 1st rounder 2.5 mil
09 1st rounder at 2.5 mil

these are all rookie scale contracts: they total 23 mil and take up 9 roster spots

then we have non-rookie contracts:

outlaw at 6 mil
miles at 8.5 mil

they total 14.5 mil and take two more roster spots, giving us totals of 37.5 mil and 11 roster spots.

assuming that the cap is 55 mil that leaves us with 17.5 mil to do with whatever we please.
assume we spend all 17.5 on an all star of some some sort, we can then bring over freeland and kopenen. that gives us 14 roster spots. the 15th spot could be filled by our 09 second rounder. meaning that we have exactly 15 roster spots used. our roster looks like this:

pg: sergio
kopenen
green
sg: roy
Rudy
sf: outlaw
miles
pf: Aldridge
mcroberts
C: Oden
Freeland

we then have 09 1st rounder, 08 first rounder, 09 second rounder, and the all star we sign in FA we obviously need help at c and sf. the 17.5 mil could sure up one of those spots.
if all of this happens we give away to FA Frye, Martell, James Jones, Jarret, Pryzz, Raef, and Blake. also if miles retires, we would then have 26 mil, in which case we can bring in one great player, and 1 all star. making us even better, but i assumed he would live out his contract...ok, shoot it full of holes..

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Comments

Let me repost something I already said once.

Oden will get a max contract when his rookie contract is up.
LMA will get a max contract when his rookie contract is up.
ROY might also get a max deal when his rookie deal is up.
If we sign a big time FA in the summer of 09, most like it will take a max deal to make it happen. Then in the summer of 2010, we max out LMA and possible ROY, the in 2011 we max out Oden. So in 2011 we would have up to 4 players with max deals.

"Think about what 4 players at the max would mean for a minute. That is about 75 million dollars invested in 4 players, in the first year of their max contracts! By the end of the contracts those same 4 players would be making close to 90 millions. By the time we sign the rest of the roster we could be close to 120 million dollar payroll. The tax cap this year is 67 million or so, but lets say in 3 years it is 75 million, (way more than it will be) that means that PA would have to pay the league an extra 45 million dollars just in tax! Even PA has not been that dumb, even at the height of the blazers payroll days.

This can not happen! We will not sign a max deal in 09 without trading b.roy, lma or Oden, and I just don't see us trading them. So they are our team, the rest of the people we sign will compliment them."

by usmcr3049 on Jul 17, 2007 9:36 AM PDT reply actions

my best guess at what our 2009/2010 team?

Roy
Rudy F
Outlaw/martell/a FA sf (one of the three)
LMA
Oden

Then some bench players like Frye, Mcroberts, etc...but not everyone from this years team will be with the team when 2009/2010 comes around.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 17, 2007 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Gerald Wallace

You can sign big time FA for less than the max.

I do agree, however, that four max or near-max players is too much even for Allen.

The Blazers are just putting themselves in position where, for the summer of 2009, they have one last chance to sign a free agent without being constrained by the cap. It doesn't mean they're just going to max out the best player available though (cough Rashard Lewis cough).

by matthewcc on Jul 17, 2007 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Wait and see...

There has been a lot of talk regarding signing a max deal with a big time free agent in 09. It seems to me that if the development of our core goes as planned, we won't need a big time free agent. We have many promising pieces on our roster already, and come 2009 we may find that the missing piece isn't necessarily a big-name free agent. I guess we'll have to wait and see...

by portlander on Jul 17, 2007 10:24 AM PDT reply actions

Hey USMCR!

Agree with you and portlander. Gotta believe KP sees it the same way. The big 3 are what it is ALL about right now.

Build the culture and they will come.

Those who will surely want to come and play for a championship contender will take less moolah. A very nice place to be for both sides.

The Oden Era, Day 20

by Heymoe on Jul 17, 2007 10:43 AM PDT reply actions

If you're gonna do this ...

I suggest you get a little more precise with your salaries. Several player's salaries will all be higher than what you listed. And what about Joel? I think he'll be around. I think it looks more like this (future salaries based off actual rookie scale):

PG: Sergio 1.89
Koponen 0.74
SG: Roy 3.91
Rudolfo 0.91
SF: Outlaw 4.90
Miles 9.00
PF: LMA 5.84
McRob 1.20
C: Oden 5.36
Prz 6.86
08 1st rnd 1.64 (guessing around 12th pick)
09 1st rnd 1.06 (guessing around 20th pick)

This gives us 12 players on our roster and a cap number of 42.5mil. But there are other questions to be answered:

Webster?
Jack?
Blake?
Freeland?
Frye?

I think once Rudy comes over it's likely that Webster gets dealt. But then again, if he figures is all out, he could very well be our SF of the future. I'm guessing one of Jack and Blake will be gone, but which one? It's possible we draft another PF with out 08 #1, but would we go into that season without a solid veteran starter? And when does Freeland come over, if ever? And does Frye leave for more money and PT? Probably at some point.

It's likely at least some of these question marks leave the team before summer 09, but the real question is what do we bring back in return for them if they leave in a trade? Anything we bring back will likely affect our cap space in 2009, since none of these contracts currently register on that year's cap.

But I think it's likely that the 12 players I've listed are all still around come 2009-10, which means we'll have a minimum of 42.5mil on the roster. With a cap of around 55-56mil, that leaves us 12-13mil to spend in free agency, but it could be less depending out how those questions are answered. Clearly that's enough to get a great player to come in (I'm guessing either a SF or PG, depending on who we draft in 2008). It should be fun to see how it all plays out, though.

by bfan on Jul 17, 2007 11:00 AM PDT reply actions

oops ...

I meant it's likely we draft another "PG" in the 08 draft ... not PF. We obviously will have a solid veteran PF in LMA at that point ...

by bfan on Jul 17, 2007 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

I think its a cusion

There is certainly no guarantee that Oden and Roy and Aldridge will all command max contracts. If our big 3 develop to their expected potential in 2 years, I suspect no major moves would be made. but if 1 of the big 3 gets hurt or proves to be just another role player, we can sign a guy to replace him according to what the team needs. One things for sure, we wont go into 2010 season without 3 very good players.

by myemic23 on Jul 17, 2007 4:19 PM PDT reply actions